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The Macroeconomic Impact of HIV/AIDS in Botswana
Author: Ms. Silvia Sgherri and Mr. Maitland MacFarlan
Series:
IMF Working Papers
Volume/Issue:
Volume 2001: Issue 080
Language:
English
Publication Date:
01 Jun 2001
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451850307.001
ISBN:
9781451850307
ISSN:
1018-5941
Pages:
42
Keywords:
WP; Aids; GDP; AIDS scenario; saving; AIDS baseline; AIDS case; AIDS insurance; AIDS disaster; HIV and AIDS; Wages; Health care spending; Capital accumulation; Total factor productivity; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa
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IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
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This paper provides an overview of the potential macroeconomic effects of HIV/AIDS in Botswana, focusing on the key channels through which the pandemic is likely to affect the economic outlook and on the uncertainties involved. To estimate the impact of HIV/AIDS, a dual-economy equilibrium model is constructed and simulated under different scenarios. Depending on exactly how AIDS affects the outlook, GDP growth is projected to fall from around 5½ percent a year without the pandemic to between 1½ and 2½ percent a year with AIDS. Non-negligible redistribution effects across sectors and labor skill categories are also likely to arise. Finally, the paper draws attention to the potential effects of HIV/AIDS on the long-term fiscal position of Botswana, highlighting the need for increased international support and/or lower drug prices so that the widespread introduction of anti-retroviral drug treatments is feasible.
Cover IMF Working Papers
IMF Working Papers
ISSN:
1018-5941
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund