Front Matter
Author:
Mr. Steven T Phillips
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and
Mr. Alberto Musso https://isni.org/isni/0000000404811396 International Monetary Fund

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Front Matter Page

Policy Development and Review Department

Authorized for distribution by Timothy Lane

Contents

  • I. Introduction

  • II. Interpretational Issues

    • A. What Makes a Good Forecasting Record?

    • B. Interpretational Issues Specific to IMF Program Projections

  • III. Data and Sample Specification

    • A. Data

    • B. Sample

  • IV. Empirical Methods

  • V. Basic Distributional Properties, and the Question of Bias

  • VI. The Question of Efficiency

  • VII. Controlling for Policy Outcomes

  • VIII. Projection Errors in “Big Programs”

  • IX. The Question of Accuracy

    • A. Comparison to a Random Walk Forecast

    • B. Directional Accuracy

  • X. Concluding Remarks

  • Text Tables

  • 1. Program Projection Errors: Central Tendencies and Other Distributional Properties

  • 2. Program Projection Errors: OLS Regressions (General to specific, 5% cutoff level)

  • 3. Inflation and Reserves Deviations: Effect of Controlling for Policy Performance

  • 4. Central Tendencies in “Big” and “Typical” Programs

  • 5. Theil’s U and Modified Diebold-Mariano Statistics

  • 6. Directional Accuracy

  • Figures

  • 1. Central Tendencies of Program Projection Errors

  • References

  • Collapse
  • Expand
Comparing Projections and Outcomes of IMF-Supported Programs
Author:
Mr. Steven T Phillips
and
Mr. Alberto Musso