Front Matter Page
Policy Development and Review Department
Authorized for distribution by Timothy Lane
Contents
I. Introduction
II. Interpretational Issues
A. What Makes a Good Forecasting Record?
B. Interpretational Issues Specific to IMF Program Projections
III. Data and Sample Specification
A. Data
B. Sample
IV. Empirical Methods
V. Basic Distributional Properties, and the Question of Bias
VI. The Question of Efficiency
VII. Controlling for Policy Outcomes
VIII. Projection Errors in “Big Programs”
IX. The Question of Accuracy
A. Comparison to a Random Walk Forecast
B. Directional Accuracy
X. Concluding Remarks
Text Tables
1. Program Projection Errors: Central Tendencies and Other Distributional Properties
2. Program Projection Errors: OLS Regressions (General to specific, 5% cutoff level)
3. Inflation and Reserves Deviations: Effect of Controlling for Policy Performance
4. Central Tendencies in “Big” and “Typical” Programs
5. Theil’s U and Modified Diebold-Mariano Statistics
6. Directional Accuracy
Figures
1. Central Tendencies of Program Projection Errors
References