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Comparing Projections and Outcomes of IMF-Supported Programs
Author:
Mr. Steven T Phillips
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and
Mr. Alberto Musso null

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Series:
IMF Working Papers
Volume/Issue:
Volume 2001: Issue 045
Language:
English
Publication Date:
01 May 2001
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451846478.001
ISBN:
9781451846478
ISSN:
1018-5941
Pages:
34
Keywords:
WP; program projection; projection error; IMF-supported program; cross-program data; program number; program outcome; IMF; programs; projections; forecasts; follow-up program dummy; program scenario; program year; transition economy program; program objective; Inflation; Capital account; Current account balance; Current account; Capital account balance; East Asia
Legal-disclaimer:
IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
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“Program numbers” from a sample of IMF-supported programs are studied as if they were forecasts, through statistical analyses of the relationship between projections and outcomes for growth, inflation, and three balance of payments concepts. Statistical bias is found only for projections of inflation and official reserves. Statistical efficiency can be rejected for all variables except growth, suggesting that some program projections were less accurate than they might have been. Nevertheless, most projections are found to have some predictive value. Since several findings are shown to be sample-dependent, the full-sample results should be interpreted cautiously.
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Cover IMF Working Papers
IMF Working Papers
ISSN:
1018-5941
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund