Front Matter Page
European I Department
Authorized for distribution by Juha Kähkönen and Alessandro Zanello
Contents
I. Introduction
II. Properties of the U.K. Business Cycle
III. Monetary Conditions of the Cycle: A Structural VAR Analysis
A. The Long-Run Model
B. Dynamic Error Correction Model and the Interest Rate Rule
IV. Monetary Conditions and EMU Entry: A Simulation Exercise
V. Conclusions
References
Tables
1. GDP Growth Cycles and Shock
2. Model Diagnostics and Cointegration Tests
3. Long-Run Relationships
4. The Error-Correction Model
5. Simulations
6. Cross-Country GDP Correlations Based on Simulations
Figures
1. GDP
2. Aggregate GDP
3. Simulations: GDP Growth and the Role of Monetary Conditions
4. Simulations: Interest Rate and GDP Growth
5. Simulated GDP Growth
6. Simulated Inflation Rate
Appendix Tables
A1. Counts and Correlation of Business Cycles Regimes for the UK and Germany
A2. Business Cycle Characteristics