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Terms of Trade Shocks in Africa: Are they Short-Lived or Long-Lived?
Author: Mr. Paul Cashin and Ms. Catherine A Pattillo
Series:
IMF Working Papers
Volume/Issue:
Volume 2000: Issue 072
Language:
English
Publication Date:
01 Mar 2000
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451849332.001
ISBN:
9781451849332
ISSN:
1018-5941
Pages:
51
Keywords:
WP; terms of trade shock; shock persistence; commodity export; price index; Terms of Trade; Sub-Saharan Africa; price shock; terms of trade data; shocks to the NBTT; time series; income terms of trade; Exports; Commodity prices; Imports; Africa
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IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
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This paper examines the persistence of shocks to the terms of trade, using annual data on 42 Sub-Saharan African countries between 1960-96. We find that the persistence of terms of trade shocks varies widely—for about half the countries such shocks are short-lived, while for one-third of the countries such shocks are long-lived. The countries experiencing long-lived terms of trade shocks are typically those that have large shares of petroleum imports in total imports, small shares of nonfuel commodity exports in total exports, and are highly concentrated in exportable commodities with long-lived price shocks.
Cover IMF Working Papers
IMF Working Papers
ISSN:
1018-5941
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund