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Comparative Macroeconomic Dynamics in the Arab World: A Panel Var Approach
Author:
Mr. Alexei P Kireyev
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Series:
IMF Working Papers
Volume/Issue:
Volume 2000: Issue 054
Language:
English
Publication Date:
01 Mar 2000
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451847505.001
ISBN:
9781451847505
ISSN:
1018-5941
Pages:
52
Keywords:
WP; macroeconomic dynamics; null hypothesis; terms of trade; VAR model; VAR; economic growth; panel data; Arab countries; program country; oil country; oil-producing country; program countries group; country-specific variable; Arab country; Oil; Oil prices; Current account; Current account balance; Fiscal stance
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IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
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The paper presents a comparative analysis of macroeconomic dynamics of 18 Arab countries based on a panel vector autogression estimation. Comparing growth performance, fiscal and current account developments in these countries, the study concludes that (1) in the short run, external and country-specific factors play an almost equal role in explaining macroeconomic fluctuations, but in the long run external factors dominate; (2) on average, program countries are less vulnerable to adverse exogeneous shocks than nonprogram countries; (3) to mitigate the negative impact of an external shock, domestic policy response should be consistent with the size of the shock.
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Cover IMF Working Papers
IMF Working Papers
ISSN:
1018-5941
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund
Volume 2000: Issue 054