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The Leuven Institute for Central and East European Studies, Faculty of Economics and Applied Economics, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Belgium. This paper was inspired during P.P. Walsh’s time as a visiting scholar in the Research Department. They are grateful to Marvin Jackson, Jozsef Konings and Ciara Whelan for their support. The paper was presented to the 12th Irish Economic Association, April 1998.