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The working paper was written while Mr. Hogan was an economist at the International Monetary Fund.
If, for example, the p value is 0.04, the null hypothesis of zero effect cannot be rejected at the 1 percent significance level, but it can be rejected at the 5 percent significance level. Thus, the lower the p value, the lower the probability that the variable has no effect on inflation.
The forecasts shown in this paper are static as opposed to dynamic forecast. In other words, when forecasting in to the future, the lagged actual values of the inflation variable are used rather than the values previously predicted by the model.
The results are almost the same if the Holdrick-Prescott measure of the NAIRU is used instead.
This would be exactly right if the variable followed a random walk.