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The Uzbek Growth Puzzle
Author:
Mr. Jeromin Zettelmeyer
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Series:
IMF Working Papers
Volume/Issue:
Volume 1998: Issue 133
Language:
English
Publication Date:
01 Sep 1998
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451855463.001
ISBN:
9781451855463
ISSN:
1018-5941
Pages:
36
Keywords:
WP; Uzbek growth puzzle; Uzbek output path; Uzbek experience; Uzbek growth experience; Uzbek transition experience; Uzbekistan; Transition; Growth; Output; Public Investment; Cotton; Energy; Uzbekistan country dummy variable; Agricultural commodities; Public investment spending; Structural reforms; Natural resources; Capital spending; Eastern Europe; Central Asia; Baltics
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IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
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After the break-up of the Soviet Union, Uzbekistan’s output fell less than in any other former Soviet Republic, and growth turned positive in 1996/97. Given the country’s hesitant and idiosyncratic approach to reforms, this record has suprised many observers. This paper first shows that a standard panel model of growth in transition systematically underpredicts Uzbek growth from 1992-1996, confirming the view that Uzbekistan’s performance consitutes a puzzle. It then attempts to resolve the puzzle by appropriately extending the model. The main result is that Uzbekistan’s output performance was driven by a combination of low initial industrialization, its cotton production, and its self-sufficiency in energy.
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Cover IMF Working Papers
IMF Working Papers
ISSN:
1018-5941
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund