Cover IMF Working Papers
Buy Book in Print
Are Currency Crises Predictable?
Author:
Mr. Rodrigo O. Valdes
Search for other papers by Mr. Rodrigo O. Valdes in
Current site
Google Scholar Close
and
Mr. Ilan Goldfajn
Search for other papers by Mr. Ilan Goldfajn in
Current site
Google Scholar Close
Series:
IMF Working Papers
Volume/Issue:
Volume 1997: Issue 159
Language:
English
Publication Date:
01 Dec 1997
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451857634.001
ISBN:
9781451857634
ISSN:
1018-5941
Pages:
19
Keywords:
WP; crisis; devaluation; crisis episode; devaluation rate; exchange rate crisis; nominal devaluation; overvaluation measure; misalignment estimate; balance-of-payments crisis; crisis month; devaluation measure; Real exchange rates; Currency crises; Cyclical indicators; Exchange rates
Legal-disclaimer:
IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
Download PDF (629.9 KB) Download Epub
This paper studies whether exchange rate expectations and overvaluations are predictors of currency crises. The results suggest that overvaluation has predictive power in explaining crises. However, although expected depreciation obtained from survey data partially takes different measures of exchange rate misalignment into consideration, expectations fail to anticipate currency crises.
  • Collapse
  • Expand
Cover IMF Working Papers
IMF Working Papers
ISSN:
1018-5941
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund