Summary of WP/94/114: “Estimating and Interpreting Forward Interest Rates: Sweden 1992-1994”

Authors of Working Papers are normally staff members of the Fund or consultants, although on occasion outside authors may collaborate with a staff member in writing a paper. The views expressed in the Working Papers or their summaries are, however, those of the authors and should not necessarily be interpreted as representing the views of the Fund. Copies of individual Working Papers and information on subscriptions to the annual series of Working Papers may be obtained from IMF Publication Services, International Monetary Fund, 700 19th Street, Washington, D.C. 20431. Telephone: (202) 623-7430 Telefax: (202) 623-7201 This compilation of summaries of Working Papers released during July-December 1994 is being issued as a part of the Working Paper series. It is designed to provide the reader with an overview of the research work performed by the staff during the period.

Abstract

Authors of Working Papers are normally staff members of the Fund or consultants, although on occasion outside authors may collaborate with a staff member in writing a paper. The views expressed in the Working Papers or their summaries are, however, those of the authors and should not necessarily be interpreted as representing the views of the Fund. Copies of individual Working Papers and information on subscriptions to the annual series of Working Papers may be obtained from IMF Publication Services, International Monetary Fund, 700 19th Street, Washington, D.C. 20431. Telephone: (202) 623-7430 Telefax: (202) 623-7201 This compilation of summaries of Working Papers released during July-December 1994 is being issued as a part of the Working Paper series. It is designed to provide the reader with an overview of the research work performed by the staff during the period.

Forward interest rates are interest rates on investment and loans that start at a future date--the settlement date--and last to a date further into the future--the maturity date. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the use of forward interest rates as a monetary policy indicator. Both the estimation and the interpretation of forward rates are discussed, using data from Sweden during the eventful period 1992-1994 as an example.

There is an increased need for monetary policy indicators when flexible exchange rates replace fixed exchange rates. In Europe, in particular, the collapse of fixed exchange rates and the widening of ERM bands mean that a well-defined intermediate target for monetary policy has been lost. In this situation, regardless of whether a new intermediate target is introduced, the role of indicators will be crucial for assessing the state of the economy and the stance of monetary policy, and for deciding whether the instrument of monetary policy is on track to achieve the goal of monetary policy.

Although the use of yield curves is standard in monetary policy analysis, central banks, such as the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, the Bank of England, and the Sveriges Riksbank, have only recently started to use forward interest rates--as, of course, only one indicator among the many that are needed--for monetary policy purposes.

In the absence of a full set of forward markets, implied forward interest rates need to be estimated from the standard yield curve of existing financial instruments, usually treasury bills and government bonds. For financial analysis, the estimation of forward rates is done with a number of different methods--some rather complex--to achieve sufficient precision. For monetary policy analysis, the demand for precision is arguably less, which can be traded for increased robustness and simplicity of the estimation method. The paper discusses and uses an estimation method that is simple and robust but appears to have a precision well beyond what is needed for monetary policy purposes.

Forward interest rates can, under specified assumptions, be interpreted as indicating market expectations of future short-term interest rates, inflation rates and currency depreciation rates. Although forward rates contain the same information as the standard yield curve, they present the information in a way more easily interpreted for monetary policy purposes. Whereas the yield curve can be interpreted as expected future averages of the variables in focus, the forward rate curve can be interpreted as indicating the expected future time path of these variables. Therefore, the forward rate curve more easily allows a separation of expectations for the short, medium, and long term than does the yield curve.

As an example, the paper uses forward rates to interpret Swedish monetary policy during the May 1992-June 1994 period.

Working Paper Summaries (WP/94/77 - WP/94/147)
Author: International Monetary Fund