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How Large Was the the Output Collapse in Russia? Alternative Estimates and Welfare Implications
Author: Evgeny Gavrilenkov and Mr. Vincent Koen
Series:
IMF Working Papers
Volume/Issue:
Volume 1994: Issue 154
Language:
English
Publication Date:
01 Dec 1994
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451921847.001
ISBN:
9781451921847
ISSN:
1018-5941
Pages:
38
Keywords:
WP; enterprise; Goskomstat; enterprise manager; defense enterprise; output collapse; output decline; Goskomstat official; consumer goods; series show; a number of enterprise; output mix; U.S.S.R. Goskomstat; output volume; Consumption; Income; Household consumption
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IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
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The divergence between production and consumption indicators in Russia suggests that the magnitude of the output collapse in the course of the transition is overstated by the official statistics. Alternative estimates for real GDP are derived, which reconcile the official production and consumption data. Based on cautious assumptions, real GDP appears to have declined cumulatively by no more than one third rather than by one half. The drop in household welfare is much smaller still, as the output mix shifts and deadweight losses are sharply reduced.
Cover IMF Working Papers
IMF Working Papers
ISSN:
1018-5941
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund