Cover IMF Working Papers
China'S Imports: An Empirical Analysis Using Johansen'S Cointegration Approach
Author:
Mingwei Yuannull

Search for other papers by Mingwei Yuan in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMedClose
and
Ms. Kalpana Kochhar
Search for other papers by Ms. Kalpana Kochhar in
Current site
Google Scholar
PubMedClose
Series:
IMF Working Papers
Volume/Issue:
Volume 1994: Issue 145
Language:
English
Publication Date:
01 Dec 1994
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451856484.001
ISBN:
9781451856484
ISSN:
1018-5941
Pages:
38
Keywords:
WP; import; regime; import demand model; foreign exchange allocation; import plan; activity affect imports; import demand function; investment import; import substitution; import function; import regime; import model; import control; OLS estimation result; Imports; International reserves
Legal-disclaimer:
IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.
Download PDF (6.4 MB) Download Epub
In this paper, the behavior of China’s imports during the period 1980-92 is studied. The estimation of cointegration and error correction mechanisms enables the separation of the long-run and short-run determinants of imports in China. The estimated cointegrating vector using Johansen’s cointegration approach shows that, in the long run, China’s imports are sensitive to changes in output, relative prices, and foreign exchange reserves. It also shows that the short-run output elasticity of imports is much greater than that in the long run, suggesting that import substitution may have been an important factor over the sample period. The forecasting ability of a conventional partial adjustment import function is then compared with that of the Johansen cointegration model; the Johansen model is shown to outperform the conventional one in forecasting accuracy.
  • Collapse
  • Expand
Cover IMF Working Papers
IMF Working Papers
ISSN:
1018-5941
Publisher:
International Monetary Fund
Volume 1994: Issue 145