Abstract

Many countries have initiated significant pension reform over the past decade. In advanced economies these reforms have been mainly of a parametric nature, involving future increases in the legal retirement age, reduced eligibility, or adjustments to the benefit formula. Elsewhere (including in emerging Europe) they have often been systemic, involving a shift from unfunded public pensions to funded private pensions. In emerging market economies outside Europe, reforms have often aimed to make pensions more generous and to increase coverage.

Many countries have initiated significant pension reform over the past decade. In advanced economies these reforms have been mainly of a parametric nature, involving future increases in the legal retirement age, reduced eligibility, or adjustments to the benefit formula. Elsewhere (including in emerging Europe) they have often been systemic, involving a shift from unfunded public pensions to funded private pensions. In emerging market economies outside Europe, reforms have often aimed to make pensions more generous and to increase coverage.

In Advanced Economies Reform Was Mostly Parametric

Faced with the financial challenges arising from an aging population over the coming decades, many advanced economies have implemented pension reform over the past decade, with the aim of slowing future public pension spending growth.

To do so, several advanced economies enacted reforms that reduce future replacement rates. Reform measures include parametric changes such as reductions in accrual rates (Greece, Korea), extension of the reference period for pension entitlement calculation (Finland, France, Greece, Portugal, Spain), and built-in sustainability factors (Germany).

Reforms have also tightened future eligibility rules, mainly through increases in the statutory age of retirement. Over coming decades, the retirement age will increase gradually to 65 in Japan; 67 in Germany, Italy, Spain, and the United States; and 68 in Ireland and the United Kingdom. A number of countries have linked future retirement ages to changes in longevity (Denmark, Italy, Spain). In France pension reform raised the retirement age by two years over 2011–18.

Other reforms have enhanced incentives for older workers to remain in the labor force. These include tighter eligibility for early pensions (Greece abolished retirement before age 65 for those with fewer than 40 years of contributions or younger than age 60) and financially more attractive later retirement as a result of actuarially fair pension payouts. Moreover, most advanced economies have introduced anti-age-discrimination legislation (Australia, the European Union, New Zealand, the United States), which could make it easier for older workers to remain in the labor force.

Some systemic changes have also been introduced, however—for example, reforms that imply automatic changes in the pension formula, such as through notional returns (Austria, Italy, Sweden).

In most instances, policies were not implemented in isolation but as part of wider reform packages. In the United Kingdom, for example, changes to the indexation rule of the basic element of the public pension were announced at the same time as the gradual increase in the retirement age over coming decades and new work-based voluntary private pension savings products to boost future retirement income. Similarly, in Germany the announced increase in the retirement age was part of a wider reform package involving the introduction of the sustainability factor and promotion of voluntary private pension savings.

The Crisis Slowed the Transition to Funded Pensions in Emerging Europe

Following the earlier examples of Chile, Colombia, and Mexico, numerous economies in emerging Europe established mandatory private pensions in the 1990s and 2000s. Starting with Hungary (1998) and Poland (1999), mandatory private pensions were subsequently introduced in Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Romania, and the Slovak Republic—often in the context of a more comprehensive reform package. Poland, for example, introduced mandatory private pensions while converting its government system to a notional defined contribution plan. The transition to funded private pensions varied across countries in terms of coverage (the cohorts for which the private plans became mandatory) and speed of transition (the share of contributions channeled from the government plan to the private funds).

In response to the recent financial and economic crisis, a number of emerging European economies reduced or even suspended contributions to the private plan, which slowed the transition. Instead, contributions were diverted back into the public plan (Latvia, Poland). Several countries implemented additional policies to reduce the transition costs—for example, by making membership voluntary rather than mandatory (the Slovak Republic). By making membership voluntary and offering strong financial incentives to return to the public plan (including loss of all public entitlements for those who remained in the private plan), Hungary arguably was out front in early 2011 in reversing previous pension reforms.

Reforms have not been limited only to the mandatory private pension element. Romania, for example, in the recent past reduced public pension payments on a temporary basis, changed indexation rules, and eliminated privileges, such as military pensions, for some groups. In January 2012 Bulgaria started the process of increasing the retirement age to 63 for women and 65 for men by 2017 and extending the number of contribution years required to receive a pension.

Other Emerging Market Economies

In emerging market economies outside Europe the past few years’ pension reforms have had numerous objectives. In some countries reforms have aimed to make public pensions more generous (Argentina, Brazil); in others the focus has been on extending coverage. China, for example, adopted a universal old-age security system in 2008 for all Beijing residents 60 and over with the aim of bridging the gap between private retired workers and those retired from government service. India opened up its defined-contribution-based New Pension System, initially established for public service workers, to all private sector workers in 2009 on a voluntary basis.

In countries with established mandatory private pensions, reform has taken different routes. In Chile, for example, new policies have aimed at regulating private investment funds. Moreover, noncontributory pensions to alleviate pensioner poverty were introduced in 2008. By contrast, in Argentina mandatory private pension plans were abolished and absorbed into the existing public plan in 2008.

To make public pensions more sustainable, a number of emerging market economies announced increases in the legal retirement age, while others reduced or eliminated special pension arrangements for particular groups, such as public service workers (Jordan).

  • Aghion, Phillipe, Diego Comin, and Peter Howitt, 2006, “When Does Domestic Saving Matter for Economic Growth?” NBER Working Paper 12275 (Cambridge, Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research). www.nber.org/papers/w12275.pdf.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Aguila, Emma, 2011, “Personal Retirement Accounts and Saving,” American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, Vol. 3, No. 4, pp. 121. http://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/pol.3.4.1.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Antolín, Pablo, 2006, “Annuities and Longevity Risk.” www.oecd.org/dataoecd/21/36/37621830.pdf.

  • Asian Development Bank (ADB), 2010a, “Reforming Asia’s Pension Systems,” Social Protection Project Briefs. www.adb.org/documents/brochures/social-protection-project-briefs/reg-reforming-pension-systems.pdf.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Asian Development Bank (ADB), 2010b, “Implementing Pension Reforms in India,” Social Protection Project Briefs. www.adb.org/documents/brochures/social-protection-project-briefs/ind-pension-reform.pdf.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Attanasio, Orazio P., and Agar Brugiavini, 2003, “Social Security and Households’ Saving,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 118, No. 3, pp. 10751119. www.jstor.org/stable/25053931.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Attanasio, Orazio P., and Susanne Rohwedder, 2001, “Pension Wealth and Household Saving: Evidence from Pension Reforms in the UK,” IFS Working Paper W01/21 (London: Institute for Fiscal Studies). www.ifs.org.uk/wps/wp0121.pdf.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Auerbach, Alan J., Jagadeesh Gokhale, and Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1994, “Generational Accounting: A Meaningful Way to Evaluate Fiscal Policy,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 8 (Winter), pp. 7394. http://people.bu.edu/kotlikoff/NewKotlikoffWebPage/GenerationalAccountingAMeaningfulWaytoAssessGenerationalPolicy1994.pdf.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Australian Government Commonwealth Treasury, 2010, “The 2010 Intergenerational Report.” www.treasury.gov.au/igr/igr2010/report/html/04_Chapter_3_Long_term_budget_projections.asp.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Avery, Robert B., Gregory E. Elliehausen, and Thomas A. Gustafson, 1986, “Pensions and Social Security in Household Portfolios: Evidence from the 1983 Survey of Consumer Finances,” in Savings and Capital Formation: The Policy Options, ed. by K.G. Adams and S.M. Wachter (Lexington, Massachusetts: Lexington Books).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Aviva, 2010, “Mind the Gap: Quantifying Europe’s Pensions Gap.” www.aviva.com/europe-pensions-gap/country-reports.html.

  • Baldacci, Emmanuele, Giovanni Callegari, David Coady, Ding Ding, Manmohan S. Kumar, Pietro Tommasino, and Jaejoon Woo, 2010, “Public Expenditures on Social Programs and Household Consumption in China,” IMF Working Paper 10/69 (Washington: International Monetary Fund). www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2010/wp1069.pdf.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Barr, Nicholas, 2004, “Reforming Pensions: Myths, Truths, and Policy Choices,” in Reforming Public Pensions: Sharing the Experience of Transition and OECD Countries, Emerging Economies Transition Series (Paris: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Barr, Nicholas, and Peter Diamond, 2008, Reforming Pensions: Principles and Policy Choices (New York: Oxford University Press).

  • Barrand, Peter, Stanford Ross, and Graham Harrison, 2004, “Integrating a Unified Revenue Administration for Tax and Social Contribution Collections: Experiences of Central and Eastern European Countries,” IMF Working Paper 04/237 (Washington: International Monetary Fund). www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2004/wp04237.pdf.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Barrel, Ray, Ian Hurst, and Simon Kirby, 2009, “How to Pay for the Crisis, or Macroeconomic Implications of Pension Reform,” NIESR Discussion Paper No. 333 (London: National Institute of Economic and Social Research). www.niesr.ac.uk/pdf/EWLfin.pdf.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Bernheim, Douglas, 1987, “The Economic Effects of Social Security: Towards a Reconciliation of Theory and Measurement,” Journal of Public Economics, Vol. 33, No. 3 (August), pp. 273304. www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0047272787900570.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Biggs, Andrew, 2011, “The Case for Raising Social Security’s Early Retirement Age,” AEI Retirement Policy Outlook No. 3 (Washington: American Enterprise Institute). www.aei.org/docLib/10-RPO-2010-g.pdf.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Blinder, Alan S., Roger H. Gordon, and Donald E. Wise, 1980, “Reconsidering the Work Disincentive Effects of Social Security,” National Tax Journal, Vol. 33, No. 4, pp. 43142.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Börsch-Supan, Axel, Martin Gasche, and Christina B. Wilke, 2010, “Konjunkturabhängigkeit der Gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung am Beispiel der aktuellen Finanz- und Wirtschaftskrise,” Zeitschrift für Wirtschaft-spolitik, Vol. 59, No. 3, pp. 298328. www.geog.ox.ac.uk/news/events/100923/borsch-supan2.pdf.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Bosworth, Barry, and Gary Burtless, 2004, “Pension Reform and Saving” (Washington: Brookings Institution). www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/papers/2004/0105useconomics_bosworth/200401bosworthburtless.pdf.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Bottazzi, Renata, Tullio Jappelli, and Mario Padula, 2006, “Retirement Expectations, Pension Reforms, and Their Impact on Private Wealth Accumulation,” Journal of Public Economics, Vol. 90, No. 12, pp. 21872212. www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V76-4K128WN-1/2/7562bbb8f13e33626dac26a0dfe3d530.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Bottazzi, Renata, Tullio Jappelli, and Mario Padula, 2011, “The Portfolio Effect of Pension Reforms: Evidence from Italy,” Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Vol. 10, No. 1, pp. 7597. http://journals.cambridge.org/abstract_S147474721000003X.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Buiter, Willem H., 1983, “Measurement of the Public Sector Deficit and Its Implications for Policy Evaluation and Design,” IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 30, pp. 30649.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Cai, Lixin, and Robert G. Gregory, 2004, “Inflows, Outflows, and the Growth of the Disability Support Pension (DSP) Program,” Australian Social Policy, 2002—03. Commonwealth of Australia. www.fahcsia.gov.au/about/publicationsarticles/research/austsocialpolicy/Documents/austsocpolicy_2002-03/AustralianSocialPolicy2002-03.pdf.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Carroll, Christopher D., and David N. Weil, 1994, “Saving and Growth: A Reinterpretation,” Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Vol. 40, pp. 13392. www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V8D-45D17DH-R/2/5b9f02f88be001ce7410a25c020be05c.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Chand, Sheetal K., and Albert Jaeger, 1996, Aging Population and Public Pension Schemes, Occasional Paper 147 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Diamond, Peter A., and Jerry A. Hausman, 1984, “Individual Retirement and Savings Behavior,” Journal of Public Economics, Vol. 23, Nos. 1—2, pp. 81114. www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V76-45DN001-5X/2/970b61526a7a29024d1f8a50d3e2ffd2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Diamond, Peter A., and Peter Orszag, 2005, “Saving Social Security: The Diamond-Orszag Plan,” The Economists’ Voice, Vol. 2, No. 1. www.bepress.com/ev/vol2/iss1/art8.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Draper, D.A.G., 1994, “Savings, Pension Rights, and Taxation,” De Economist, Vol. 142, No. 2, pp. 17192. www.springerlink.com/content/x238265457283610/fulltext.pdf.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Duggan, Mark, Perry Singleton, and Jae Song, 2007, “Aching to Retire? The Rise in the Full Retirement Age and Its Impact on the Social Security Disability Rolls,” Journal of Public Economics, Vol. 91, Nos. 7—8, pp. 132750. www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V76-4MT5JXH-1/2/239b290f8cb8c931f438e324df657d4f.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Duval, Romain, 2003, “The Retirement Effects of Old-Age Pension and Early Retirement Schemes in OECD Countries,” OECD Economics Department Working Papers No. 370 (Paris: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development). http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/308728704511.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ehrhardt, John W., and Paul C. Morgan, 2011, “Modest Increase in 2010 Funded Status as a Result of Record Employer Contributions,” Milliman Pension Funding Study (Seattle, Washington: Milliman, Inc.). www.milliman.com/expertise/employeebenefits/products-tools/pension-funding-study/pdfs/2011-pension-funding-study.pdf.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Eich, Frank, 2009, “Evaluating Public and Private Sector Pensions: The Importance of Sectoral Pay Differentials,” Research Study (London: Pension Corporation). www.pensionomics.com/sites/default/files/pdf/Binder_Evaluating_public_and_private_sector_pensions.pdf.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Engelhardt, Gary V., and Jonathan Gruber, 2004, “Social Security and the Evolution of Elderly Poverty,” NBER Working Paper 10466 (Cambridge, Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research). www.nber.org/papers/w10466.pdf.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • European Commission, 2008, “Privately Managed Funded Pension Provision and Their Contribution to Adequate and Sustainable Pensions,” Social Protection Committee (Brussels). http://ec.europa.eu/social/BlobServlet?docId=743&langId=en.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • European Commission Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN) and the Economic Policy Committee (AWG), 2009, “The 2009 Ageing Report: Economic and Budgetary Projections for the EU-27 Member States (2008—2060),” European Economy 2 (Brussels). http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/publication14992_en.pdf.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Eurostat, 2011, European System of Integrated Social Protection Statistics (Brussels: European Commission). http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/social_protection/data/database.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Feldstein, Martin, 1974, “Social Security, Induced Retirement, and Aggregate Capital Accumulation,” Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 82, No. 5, pp. 90526. www.jstor.org/stable/1829174.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Feldstein, Martin, 1980, “International Differences in Social Security and Saving,” Journal of Public Economics, Vol. 14, No. 2 (October), pp. 22544. www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0047272780900419.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Feldstein, Martin, 1996, Social Security and Saving: New Time Series Evidence,” National Tax Journal, Vol. 49, No. 2, pp. 15164. http://ntj.tax.org/wwtax%5Cntjrec.nsf/CA8799163ACBC9E985256863004B1F34/$FILE/v49n2151.pdf.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Finnish Ministry of Finance, 2001, “Economic Policy Challenges in Coming Years.” www.vm.fi/vm/en/04_publications_and_documents/01_publications/02_economic_surveys/20010529Econom/ts-2001-eng.pdf

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Gale, William G., 1998. “The Effects of Pensions on Household Wealth: A Reevaluation of Theory and Evidence,” Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 106, No. 4, pp. 70623. www.journals.uchicago.edu/cgi-bin/resolve?JPEv106p706PDF.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Goss, Stephen, 2010, “The Future Financial Status of the Social Security Program,” Social Security Bulletin, Vol. 70, No. 3. www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/ssb/v70n3/v70n3p111.pdf.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Government Offices of Sweden, 2011, “Convergence Programme for Sweden: 2011 Update.” http://ec.europa.eu/europe2020/pdf/nrp/cp_sweden_en.pdf.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Gruber, Jonathan, and David A. Wise, eds., 2004, Social Security Programs and Retirement around the World: Micro-estimation (Chicago and London: University of Chicago Press).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Gruber, Jonathan, and David A. Wise, 2005, Social Security Programs and Retirement around the World: Fiscal Implications, Introduction and Summary, NBER Working Paper 11290 (Cambridge, Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research). www.nber.org/papers/w11290.pdf.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Gruber, Jonathan, and David A. Wise, 2009, Social Security Programs and Retirement around the World: The Relationship to Youth Employment, NBER Working Paper 14647 (Cambridge, Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research). www.nber.org/papers/w14647.pdf.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Gustman, Alan L., Thomas. L Steinmeier, and Nahid Tabatabai, 2011, “The Effects of Changes in Women’s Labor Market Attachment on Redistribution under the Social Security Benefit Formula,” NBER Working Paper 17439 (Cambridge, Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research). www.nber.org/papers/w17439.pdf.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Holzmann, Robert, 1988, “Reforming Public Pensions,” OECD Social Policy Studies No. 5 (Paris: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Holzmann, Robert, David A. Robalino, and Noriyuki Takayama eds., 2009, Closing the Coverage Gap: The Role of Social Pensions and Other Retirement Income Transfers (Washington: World Bank).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hubbard, R. Glenn, 1986, “Pension Wealth and Individual Saving,” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 18 (May), pp. 16778. www.jstor.org/stable/1992200.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • International Labour Organization (ILO), 1979, The Cost of Social Security, Ninth International Inquiry, 1972–1974: Comparative Tables (Geneva).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • International Labour Organization (ILO), 1981, The Cost of Social Security, Tenth International Inquiry, 1975–1977: Comparative Tables (Geneva).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • International Labour Organization (ILO), 1985, The Cost of Social Security, Eleventh International Inquiry, 1978–1980: Comparative Tables (Geneva).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • International Labour Organization (ILO), 1996, The Cost of Social Security, Fourteenth International Inquiry, 1987–1989: Comparative Tables (Geneva).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • International Labour Organization (ILO), 1997, “Economically Active Population 1950–2010,” Fourth Edition, CD-ROM (Geneva).

  • International Labour Organization (ILO), 2010, “World Social Security Report 2010/11: Providing Coverage in Times of Crisis and Beyond,” Social Security Department (Geneva). www.socialsecurityextension.org/gimi/gess/ShowTheme.do?tid=1985.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • International Labour Organization (ILO), 2011, “Economically Active Population, Estimates and Projections,” Sixth Edition (Geneva). http://laborsta.ilo.org/applv8/data/EAPEP/eapep_E.html.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • International Monetary Fund, 2004, “Report on the Evaluation of the Role of the IMF in Argentina, 1991–2001,” Independent Evaluation Office (Washington). www.imf.org/external/np/ieo/2004/arg/eng/pdf/report.pdf.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • International Monetary Fund, 2005, “Global Imbalances: A Saving and Investment Perspective,” Chapter 2 in World Economic Outlook, September 2005: Building Institutions. World Economic and Financial Surveys (Washington). www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2005/02/pdf/chapter2.pdf.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • International Monetary Fund, 2009, “Fiscal Implications of the Global Economic and Financial Crisis,” IMF Staff Position Note 09/13 (Washington). www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/spn/2009/spn0913.pdf.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • International Monetary Fund, 2010, “From Stimulus to Consolidation: Revenue and Expenditure Policies in Advanced and Emerging Economies,” IMF Policy Paper (Washington). www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2010/043010a.pdf.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • International Monetary Fund, 2011a, Fiscal Monitor, September 2011: Addressing Fiscal Challenges to Reduce Economic Risks (Washington). www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fm/2011/02/pdf/fm1102.pdf.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • International Monetary Fund, 2011b, “The Challenge of Public Pension Reform in Advanced and Emerging Economies,” IMF Policy Paper, December (Washington). www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2011/122811.pdf.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • International Monetary Fund, 2012, “The Financial Impact of Longevity Risk,” in Global Financial Stability Report, April 2012: The Quest for Lasting Stability. World Economic and Financial Surveys (Washington), www.imf.org/External/Pubs/FT/GFSR/2012/01/pdf/text.pdf.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Jackson, Richard, N. Howe, and N. Keisuke Nakashima, 2010, “The Global Aging Preparedness Index” (Washington: Center for Strategic and International Studies). http://csis.org/publication/global-aging-preparedness-index.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Jappelli, Tullio, 1995, “Does Social Security Reduce the Accumulation of Private Wealth? Evidence from Italian Survey Data,” Ricerche Economiche, Vol. 49, No. 1, pp. 131. www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/003550549590008X.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Jousten, Alain, Mathieu Lefebvre, and Sergio Perelman, 2011, “Disability in Belgium: There Is More Than Meets the Eye,” NBER Working Paper 17114 (Cambridge, Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research). www.nber.org/papers/w17114.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Karam, Philippe, Dirk Muir, Anita Tuladhar, and Joana Pereira, 2010, “Macroeconomic Effects of Public Pension Reforms,” IMF Working Paper 10/2 (Washington: International Monetary Fund). www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2010/wp10297.pdf.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kashiwase, Kenichiro, and Pietro Rizza, 2011, “Generational Inequity in Pension Systems” (unpublished).

  • King, Mervyn A., and Louis Dicks-Mireaux, 1982, “Asset Holdings and the Life-Cycle,” Economic Journal, Vol. 92 (June), pp. 24767. www.jstor.org/stable/2232439.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Koskela, Erkki, and Matti Viren, 1983, “Social Security and Household Saving in an International Cross-Section,” American Economic Review, Vol. 73, No. 1, pp. 21217. www.jstor.org/stable/1803939.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kotlikoff, Laurence J., 1979, “Testing the Theory of Social Security and Life Cycle Accumulation,” American Economic Review, Vol. 69, No. 3, pp. 396410. www.jstor.org/stable/1807373.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Krugman, Paul, 2010, “Live Long and Prosper,” New York Times, August 13. http://krugman.blogs.ny-times.com/2010/08/13/live-long-and-prosper-2.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Leahy, Joanna, 2008, “Age, Women, and Hiring: An Experimental Study,” Journal of Human Resources, Vol. 43, No. 1, pp. 3056. http://jhr.uwpress.org/cgi/reprint/43/1/30.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Levine, Ross, and David Renelt, 1992, “A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions,” American Economic Review, Vol. 82, No. 4, pp. 94263. www.jstor.org/stable/2117352.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Li, Xiaoyan, and Nicole Maestas, 2008, “Does the Rise in the Full Retirement Age Encourage Disability Benefits Applications? Evidence from the Health and Retirement Study,” Working Paper 2008-198 (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Retirement Research Center). http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/61827/1/wp198.pdf.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Lindert, Peter, 2004, Growing Public: Social Spending and Economic Growth since the Eighteenth Century (Cambridge, United Kingdom: Cambridge University Press).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Mackenzie, George A., Philip Gerson, and Alfredo Cuevas, 1997, Pension Regimes and Saving, Occasional Paper 153 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Maestas, Nicole, Kathleen Mullen, and Alex Strand, 2011, “Does Disability Insurance Receipt Discourage Work?” Labor and Population Working Paper No. WR-853.2 (Santa Monica, California: RAND Corporation). www.rand.org/pubs/working_papers/WR853-2.html.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Milligan, Kevin, and David Wise, 2011, “Social Security and Retirement around the World: Mortality and Health, Employment, and Disability Insurance Participation and Reforms,” NBER Working Paper 16719 (Cambridge, Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research). www.nber.org/papers/w16719.pdf.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Modigliani, Franco, and Arlie Sterling, 1983, “The Determinants of Private Saving, with Special Reference to the Role of Social Security—Cross-Country Tests,” in The Determinants of National Savings and Wealth, ed. by F. Modigliani and R. Hemming (New York: St. Martin’s Press).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Munnell, Alicia H., 1974, The Effect of Social Security on Personal Saving (Cambridge: Ballinger).

  • Munnell, Alicia H., Mauricio Soto, and Alexander Golub-Sass, 2008, “Would People Be Healthy Enough to Work Longer?” Working Paper 2008-11, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College. http://crr.bc.edu/images/stories/Working_Papers/wp_2008-11.pdf.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Musgrave, Richard A., 1981, “A Reappraisal of Social Security Finance,” in Social Security Financing, ed. by Felicity Skidmore (Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Nataraj, Sita, and John B. Shoven, 2004, “Has the Unified Budget Undermined the Federal Government Trust Funds?” NBER Working Paper 10953 (Cambridge, Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research). www.nber.org/papers/w10953.pdf.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • National Research Council, 2000, Beyond Six Billion: Forecasting the World’s Population, ed. by John Bongaarts and Rodolfo A. Bulatao, Panel on Population Projections Committee on Population, Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education (Washington: National Academy Press). www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=9828.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Oksanen, Heikki, 2010, “The Chinese pension System: First Results on Assessing the Reform Options,” Economic Papers 412 (Brussels: European Commission). http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/economic_paper/2010/pdf/ecp412_en.pdf.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), 2006, “Live Longer, Work Longer” (Paris). www.oecd-ilibrary.org/employment/ageing-and-employment-policies-vieillissement-et-politiques-de-l-emploi_19901011.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), 2009, “Sickness, Disability and Work: Keeping on Track in the Economic Downturn,” Background Paper, High-Level Forum, Stockholm, May 14–15. www.oecd.org/dataoecd/42/15/42699911.pdf.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), 2011, Pensions at a Glance: Retirement Income Systems in OECD and G20 Countries (Paris). http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/pension_glance-2011-en.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Palacios, Robert, and Edward Whitehouse, 2006, “Civil Service Pension Schemes around the World,” Social Protection Discussion Paper No. 0602. (Washington: World Bank). http://siteresources.worldbank.org/SOCIALPROTECTION/Resources/SP-Discussion-papers/Pensions-DP/0602.pdf.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation, 2009, Pension Insurance Data Book (Washington). www.pbgc.gov/docs/2009databook.pdf.

  • Pension Protection Fund (PPF), 2009, PPF 7800 Index. www.pensionprotectionfund.org.uk/Pages/PPF7800Index.aspx.

  • Pensions Commission, 2004, “Pensions Challenges and Choices,” First Report of the Pensions Commission (Norwich, United Kingdom). www.webarchive.org.uk/wayback/archive/20070717120000; www.pensionscommission.org.uk/publications/2004/annrep/index.html.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Pitelis, Christos N., 1985, “Effects of Life Assurance and Pension Funds on Other Savings: The Postwar U.K. Experience,” Bulletin of Economic Research, Vol. 37 (September), pp. 21329. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1467-8586.1985.tb00195.x/abstract.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Poterba, James M., Steven F. Venti, and David A. Wise, 1995, “Do 401(k) Contributions Crowd Out Other Personal Saving?” Journal of Public Economics, Vol. 58, No. 1, pp. 132. www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/004727279401462W.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Prinz, C., and W. Tompson, 2009, “Sickness and Disability Benefit Programs: What Is Driving Policy Convergence?” International Social Security Review, Vol. 62, No. 4, pp. 4161. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1468-246X.2009.01345.x/pdf.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Queisser, Monika, and Edward Whitehouse, 2006, “Neutral or Fair? Actuarial Concepts and Pension-System Design,” Social, Employment and Migration Working Paper No. 40 (Paris: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development). www.oecd.org/dataoecd/2/42/37811399.pdf.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Samwick, Andrew W., 2000, “Is Pension Reform Conducive to Higher Saving?” Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 82, No. 2, pp. 26472. www.jstor.org/stable/2646819.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Shome, Parthasarathi, and Katrine Saito, 1980, “Creating Capital through Social Security Institutions: The Asian Experience,” Domestic Finance Studies No. 61 (Washington: World Bank).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Sin, Yvonne, 2005, “China Pension Liabilities and Reform Options for Old Age Insurance,” Working Paper 2005-1 (Washington: World Bank). http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTPENSIONS/Resources/ChinaPensionLiabilities.pdf.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Smetters, Kent, 2003, “Is the Social Security Trust Fund Worth Anything?” NBER Working Paper 9845 (Cambridge, Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research). www.nber.org/papers/w9845.pdf.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Sommer, Martin, 2011, “Fiscal Challenges Facing the U.S. State and Local Governments,” in United States—Selected Issues, IMF Country Report No. 11/202 (Washington: International Monetary Fund). www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2011/cr11202.pdf.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Soto, Mauricio, Benedict Clements, and Frank Eich, 2011, “A Fiscal Indicator for Assessing First and. Second Pillar Pension Reforms,” IMF Staff Discussion Note 11/09 (Washington: International Monetary Fund). www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/sdn/2011/sdn1109.pdf.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Staubli, Stefan, 2011, “The Impact of Stricter Criteria for Disability Insurance on Labor Force Participation,” Journal of Public Economics, Vol. 95, No. 9–10, pp. 122335. www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0047272711000806.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Sun, Yan, 2011, “The Impact of the Mining Boom on the Australian Labor Market,” in Australia: Selected Issues, IMF Country Report No. 11/301 (Washington: International Monetary Fund). www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2011/cr11301.pdf.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Sundén, Annika, 2009, “The Swedish Pension System and the Economic Crisis,” Issue Brief 9–25, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College. http://crr.bc.edu/images/stories/Briefs/ib_9-25.pdf.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Tanzi, Vito, and Ludger Schuknecht, 2000, Public Spending in the 20th Century: A Global Perspective (Cambridge, United Kingdom: Cambridge University Press).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Traa, Bob, 2009, “A Fiscal Early Warning System Based on the Comprehensive Public Sector Balance Sheet,” in Greece: Selected Issues, IMF Country Report 09/245 (Washington: International Monetary Fund). www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.cfm?sk=23170.0.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • United Nations, 2008, World Population Prospects: The 2008 Revision (New York). www.un.org/esa/population.

  • United Nations, 2010, World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision (New York). www.un.org/esa/population.

  • U.S. Government Accountability Office, 2007, “Private Pensions: Low Defined Contribution Plan Savings May Pose Challenges to Retirement Security, Especially for Many Low-Income Workers,” Report to the Chairman, Committee on Education and Labor, House of Representatives (Washington). www.gao.gov/new.items/d088.pdf.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • U.S. Social Security Administration, 2011, Annual Report of the Board of Trustees of the Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Federal Disability Insurance Trust Funds (Washington: U.S. Government Printing Office). www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2011/tr2011.pdf.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • U.S. Social Security Administration, various years, Social Security Programs throughout the World (Washington). www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/progdesc/ssptw.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Velculescu, Delia, 2010, “Some Uncomfortable Arithmetic Regarding Europe’s Public Finances,” IMF Working Paper 10/177 (Washington: International Monetary Fund). www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2010/wp10177.pdf.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Velculescu, Delia, 2011, “Private Pension Systems in Emerging Europe: The Uncertain Road Ahead,” in Republic of Poland: Selected Issues, IMF Country Report No. 11/167 (Washington: International Monetary Fund). www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2011/cr11167.pdf.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Venti, Steven F., and David A. Wise, 1990, “Have IRAs Increased U.S. Saving? Evidence from Consumer Expenditure Surveys,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 105, No. 3, pp. 66198. www.jstor.org/stable/2937894.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Venti, Steven F., and David A. Wise, 1996, “The Wealth of Cohorts: Retirement Saving and the Changing Assets of Older Americans,” NBER Working Paper 5609 (Cambridge, Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research). www.nber.org/papers/w5609.pdf.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Villagómez, F. Alejandro, and Juan I. Hernández, 2010, “Impacto de la Reforma al Sistema de Pensiones en México sobre el Ahorro,” Economía Mexicana Nueva Epoca, Vol. 19, No. 2, pp. 271310. www.economiamexicana.cide.edu/num_anteriores/XIX-2/03.EM.A.Villagomez(271-310).pdf.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Waldron, Hilary, 2007, “Trends in Mortality Differentials and Life Expectancy for Male Social Security—Covered Workers, by Average Relative Earnings,” ORES Working Paper Series No. 108 (Washington: Social Security Administration). www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/workingpapers/wp108.pdf.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Waters, William R., 1981, Employer Pension Plan Membership and Household Wealth (Philadelphia: S.S. Huebner Foundation for Insurance Education, Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • World Bank, 2006, Pension Reform and the Development of Pension Systems: An Evaluation of World Bank Assistance, Independent Evaluation Group (Washington). www.worldbank.org/ieg/pensions/documents/pensions_evaluation.pdf.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Yamada, Tetsuji, Tadashi Yamada, and Guoen Liu, 1992, “Interdependency of Personal Savings and Labour Force Participation of the Elderly, and Social Security Wealth: A Time Series Analysis,” Applied Economics, Vol. 24 (April), pp. 37988. www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/00036849200000012.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zaidi, Asghar, 2009, “Poverty and Income of Older People in OECD Countries” (Vienna: European Centre for Social Welfare Policy and Research). http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1992492

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Zaidi, Asghar, Aaron George Grech, and Michael Fuchs, 2006, “Pension Policy in EU25 and Its Possible Impact on Elderly Poverty,” CASEpaper 116. Centre for Analysis of Social Exclusion (London: London School of Economics and Political Science). http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/6225.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation