External Debt Sustain ability Under Alternative Assumptions
(Percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)
|Current account balance consistent with stable external debt ratio1||-6.0||-3.9||-6.2||-4.0||-6.8||-6.0|
|Net non-debt-creating flows (FDI)2||5.0||3.0||5.0||3.0||5.0||3.0|
|Nominal GDP growth (in foreign currency terms)3||8.5||7.5||9.0||8.0||7.0||6.0|
|Real GDP growth||5.5||4.5||6.0||5.0||4.0||3.0|
|Current account balance (2000)||-6.4||-6.9||-6.0|
|Net external debt (2000)||13||14||26|
Calculations based on stabilizing net external debt at current levels.
Baseline and conservative assumptions based on average and minimum annual foreign direct investment (FDI) flows in the Baltic countries during 1997—2000.
The fixed exchange rate regimes in the Baltic countries imply that nominal GDP growth is the same in both domestic and foreign currency terms.