Abstract

The statistical tables in this appendix have been compiled on the basis of information available on or before September 10, 1990. The recording of the figures for 1990 and beyond with the same degree of precision as the historical figures is solely a matter of convenience; it is not intended to convey any connotation regarding the degree of accuracy attaching to these estimates and projections.

Assumptions and Conventions

The statistical tables in this appendix have been compiled on the basis of information available on or before September 10, 1990. The recording of the figures for 1990 and beyond with the same degree of precision as the historical figures is solely a matter of convenience; it is not intended to convey any connotation regarding the degree of accuracy attaching to these estimates and projections.

The estimates and projections for 1990 and 1991 are predicated on a number of assumptions and working hypotheses:

1. For the major currencies, the average exchange rates in August 1990 will remain unchanged in real terms through the end of 1991.

2. “Present” policies of national authorities will be maintained.

3. The price of oil will average $20.59 a barrel in 1990 and $22.75 a barrel in 1991. These averages are consistent with an assumed oil price level of $26 in the final quarter of 1990 coming down to the new OPEC reference price of $21 in the fourth quarter of 1991. Thereafter, the oil price will remain unchanged in real terms.

4. With respect to interest rates, the six-month U.S. dollar LIBOR is assumed to average 8.4 percent in 1990 and 8.0 percent in 1991. Interest rates on assets denominated in other currencies will differ.

U.S. dollar/SDR conversion rates used in this report are, for the historical period, the geometric averages of daily rates given in the Fund’s International Financial Statistics (IFS). For 1990 and 1991, the exchange rate assumptions specified above imply average U.S. dollar/SDR conversion rates of 1.343 and 1.383, respectively.

Classification of Countries

The group of industrial countries (23 countries) comprises:

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The seven largest countries in this group in terms of GNP—the United States. Japan, the Federal Republic of Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Italy, and Canada—are collectively referred to as the major industrial countries.

The European countries are defined as all industrial countries excluding the United States, Japan, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. Among the European countries, the current members of the European Community are distinguished as a subgroup.1 They are:

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The developing countries include all other Fund members (as of mid-1990),2 together with certain essentially autonomous dependent territories for which adequate statistics are available.3 The regional breakdowns of developing countries conform to the classification used in the Fund’s International Financial Statistics. In this classification, Egypt and the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya are classified as part of the Middle East, not Africa.

In addition to their regional classification, the developing countries are also grouped according to analytical criteria. Specifically, countries are classified by (1) predominant export; by (2) financial criteria; and (3) in a number of miscellaneous groups.

The first analytical criterion, by predominant export category, distinguishes among five groups: fuel (SITC (Standard International Trade Classification) 3); manufactures (SITC 5 to 8, less diamonds and gemstones); non-fuel primary products (SITC 0,1,2,4, and diamonds and gemstones); “services and private transfers,” and “diversified export base.”

A further distinction is made among the exporters of non-fuel primary products on the basis of whether countries’ exports of primary commodities consist primarily of agricultural commodities (SITC 0,1,2 except 27, 28, and 4) or minerals (SITC 27 and 28 and diamonds and gemstones).

The financial criteria first distinguish among net creditor and net debtor countries. Countries in the latter, much larger, group are then distinguished on the basis of two additional financial criteria: by predominant type of creditor and by the degree of debt-servicing difficulties they have faced.

The country groups shown under the heading “miscellaneous groups” constitute sub-Saharan Africa;4 12 major oil exporters; net debtor fuel exporters; 4 newly industrializing Asian economies; small low-income economies; and 15 heavily indebted countries.

Table A presents a breakdown of all developing country groupings according to the proportion of GDP, exports of goods and services, and level of indebtedness. A detailed account of the analytical country classification scheme is provided below.

Countries Classified by Predominant Export

Fuel (18 countries)

Countries whose average 1984–86 ratio of fuel exports to total exports exceeded 50 percent are assigned to the fuel category. The group comprises:

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Non-fuel exports (114 countries)

This category identifies countries with total exports of goods and services including a substantial share of (a) manufactures, (b) primary products, or (c) services and private transfers. However, countries whose export structure is so diversified that it does not fall clearly into any one of the other three groups are assigned to a fourth group, (d) diversified export base.

Table A.

Developing Countries: Shares of Various Subgroups in Aggregate GDP, Exports of Goods and Services, and Debt Outstanding, 1985–87

(In percent)

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a. Economies whose exports of manufactures accounted for over 50 percent of their total exports in 1984–86 are included in the group of exporters of manufactures (15 countries). This group includes:

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b. The group of exporters of primary products (53 countries) consists of those countries whose exports of agricultural and mineral primary products (SITC 0,1,2, and 4. and diamonds and gemstones) accounted for at least half of their total exports in 1984–86.5 These countries are:

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Among primary products a further distinction is made between agricultural products and minerals. The group of mineral exporters (13 countries) comprises:

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The agricultural exporters (40 countries) consist of all other exporters of primary products. They are:

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c. The exporters of services and recipients of private transfers (33 countries) are defined as those countries whose income from services and private transfers in 1984–86 accounted for more than half of total export earnings. This group comprises:

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c. Countries with a diversified export base (13 countries) are those whose export earnings in 1984–86 were not dominated by any one of the categories mentioned under (a) to (c) above. The group comprises:

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Countries Classified by Financial Criteria

Net creditor countries (8 countries) are defined as all developing countries that unambiguously were net external creditors in 1987 or that experienced substantial cumulated current account surpluses (excluding official transfers) between 1967–68 (the beginning of most balance of payments series in the World Economic Outlook data base) and 1987. The net creditor group consists of the following economies:

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Net debtor countries (124 countries) are disaggregated according to two criteria: (a) predominant type of creditor, and (b) experience with debt servicing.

a. By predominant type of creditor (sources of borrowing)

Market borrowers (21 countries) are defined as net debtor countries with more than two thirds of their total liabilities outstanding at the end of 1987 owed to commercial creditors. They comprise:

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Official borrowers (68 countries) are defined as net debtor countries with more than two thirds of their total liabilities outstanding at the end of 1987 owed to official creditors. This group comprises:

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Diversified borrowers (35 countries) consist of those net debtor developing countries that are neither market nor official borrowers:

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By experience with debt servicing Countries with recent debt-servicing difficulties (72 countries) are defined as those countries that incurred external payments arrears or entered official or commercial bank debt rescheduling agreements during 1986–88. Information on these developments is taken from relevant issues of the Fund’s Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions.

All other net debtor countries are classified as not having experienced recent debt-servicing problems.

Miscellaneous Groups

Sub-Saharan Africa comprises all African countries (as defined in International Financial Statistics) except Algeria, Morocco, Nigeria, South Africa, and Tunisia. The group of 12 major oil exporters comprises:

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The four newly industrializing Asian economies are Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan Province of China.

The net debtor fuel exporters are those 11 fuel exporters that are not net creditor countries. They are:

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The group of small low-income economies (45 countries) comprises those Fund members, excluding China and India, whose GDP per person, as estimated by the World Bank, did not exceed the equivalent of $425 in 1986. These countries are

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The group of 15 heavily indebted countries comprises those countries associated with the “Program for Sustained Growth” proposed by the Governor for the United States at the 1985 Fund/Bank Annual Meetings in Seoul. These countries are

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A few tables include estimates for other countries (which are classified as neither industrial nor developing), comprising the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics and Eastern European nonmember countries. Other nonmember countries, such as Cuba, Mongolia, and North Korea, are excluded from the tables in this report. Also, it has not been possible to include a number of small countries or territories for which trade and payments data are not available.

List of Tables

Medium-term baseline scenario

Table A1.

World Output. 1972–911

(Annual changes, in percent)

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Real GDP (or GNP) for industrial and developing countries and real net material product (NMP) for other countries. Composites for the country groups are averages of percentage changes for individual countries weighted by the average U.S. dollar value of their respective GDPs (GNPs or NMPs where applicable) over the preceding three years. Because of the uncertainty surrounding the valuation of the composite NMP of the other countries, they have been assigned —somewhat arbitrarily—a weight of 11 percent in the calculation of the growth of world output.

Compound annual rates of change. Excluding China.

The U.S.S.R. and countries of Eastern Europe that are not members of the Fund.

Table A2.

Industrial Countries: Real GNP and Total Domestic Demand, 1972–911

(Annual chances, in percent)

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Composites for the country groups are averages of percentage changes for individual countries weighted by the average U.S. dollar value of their respective GNPs over the preceding three years.

Compound annual rates of change.

From fourth quarter of preceding year.

GDP at market prices.

Average of expenditure, income, and output estimates of GDP at market prices.

Table A3.

Industrial Countries: Components of Real GNP, 1972–911

(Annual changes, in percent)

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Composites for country groups are averages of percentage changes in real terms for individual countries weighted by the average U.S. dollar value of their respective GNPs over the preceding three years.

Compound annual rates of change.

Changes expressed as a percentage of GNP in the preceding period.

Table A4.

Industrial Countries: Employment, Unemployment, and Real Per Capita GNP, 1972–91

(In percent)

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Compound annual rates of change for employment and per capita GNP, and arithmetic averages for unemployment rates.

Composites for the country groups are averages of percentage changes for individual countries weighted by the average U.S. dollar value of their respective GNPs over the preceding three years.

Composites for the country groups are averages of national unemployment rates weighted by labor force in the respective countries.