Abstract

The IEO is currently working on five evaluations and is also undertaking two reviews of past evaluations. The status of each is summarized below.

The IEO is currently working on five evaluations and is also undertaking two reviews of past evaluations. The status of each is summarized below.

The IEO continues to work on an “Assessment of IMF Self-Evaluation Systems.” This evaluation examines how the IMF learns from experience. It considers the mechanisms in place for the IMF to engage in self-evaluation of its lending programs, surveillance, and capacity development. It also takes stock of the IMF’s thematic and policy reviews and the extent to which they constitute self-evaluative exercises drawing on experience to enhance the IMF’s work. The IEO expects to complete this evaluation report in FY2014.

Following broad-based consultations and a discussion with the Executive Board, the IEO initiated four new evaluations in this financial year. The first examines “IMF Forecasts: Process, Quality, and Country Perspectives,” recognizing their importance for member countries and for the operations and credibility of the IMF. This evaluation aims to help make the forecast process better known, and hence more credible, outside the IMF and to identify areas where improvements might be possible. The evaluation will describe the process of generating forecasts within the IMF; take stock of what is known about the quality of IMF forecasts; and determine how users of the forecasts within the IMF and among member country officials perceive the usefulness of IMF forecasts. It will focus on the forecasts for the principal macroeconomic variables, published in the World Economic Outlook and in Article IV country reports, and will cover the entire membership, with the analysis stratified according to region and stage of economic development. A draft Issues Paper for this evaluation was published for comment and is available on the IEO website.

The IEO has also begun evaluations on country statistics and their support of IMF operations, and on the IMF’s response to the global financial crisis. In addition, as proposed by the second external evaluation report, the IEO is preparing an issues-oriented review that will assess progress the IMF has made in tackling selected broader issues raised by IEO evaluations. Draft Issues Papers will be posted for comment when they are available.

Finally, building on the pilot project detailed in Chapter 2, the IEO plans in FY2014 to prepare two reviews of past evaluations. One will revisit two IEO evaluations dealing with low-income countries: the Evaluation of the IMF’s Role in Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers and the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility and the evaluation of The IMF and Aid to Sub-Saharan Africa. The other review will look back at the evaluation of IMF Technical Assistance. Each of these reviews will examine whether the analysis, conclusions, and recommendations of the original IEO evaluations are still relevant and, to some extent, whether recommendations were implemented.

Table 1 shows the status of IEO evaluations completed or in progress.

Table 1.

Completed and Ongoing IEO Work Program

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Date indicates when the evaluation report was transmitted to the IMF Executive Board.