Abstract

Heating Up in the South, Cooler in the North broadly describes the economic scene for the Western Hemisphere. The report emphasizes how a mixed environment--with slow recovery in the United States and other advanced economies, but strength in Asia--differently shapes the outlooks for the diverse economies of Latin America and the Caribbean. This issue also focuses on financial issues in Latin America, with a chapter on the challenges of allowing credit to expand safely, without creating excessive risks, and a chapter that looks at macroprudential financial policies--topics especially important in today's context of low global interest rates and capital flows to emerging economies. The final chapter turns to Caribbean economies, exploring the drivers, and obstacles, that affect their growth.

Western Hemisphere: Main Economic Indicators 1

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Source: IMF staff calculations.

Regional aggregates calculated as PPP GDP-weighted averages, unless otherwise noted.

End-of-period (December) rates, These will generally differ from period average inflation rates reported in the IMF, World Economic Outlook, although both are based on identical underlying projections.

Private analysts estimate that consumer price index inflation has been considerably higher. The authorities have created a board of academic advisors to assess these issues. Private analysts are also of the view that real GDP growth has been lower than the official reports since the last quarter of 2008.

Fiscal year data.

Includes Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, and Venezuela. These comprise the seven largest economies in Latin American and the Caribbean.

Includes Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Grenada, Monseratt, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Lucia, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

Latin America and the Caribbean: Main Fiscal Indicators 1

article image
Source: IMF staff calculations.

Figures for overall public sector, including general government and public enterprises. Definitions of public sector accounts vary by country, depending on country-specific institutional differences, including on what constitutes the appropriate coverage from a fiscal policy perspective, as defined by IMF staff. All indicators reported on fiscal year basis. Regional aggregates are PPP GDP-weighted averages unless otherwise noted.

Primary balance also excludes interest received.

Federal government and provinces. Includes interest payments on accrual basis.

Includes central government and national insurance scheme. Gross debt is for the nonfinancial public sector.

General government only.

Central government only. Gross debt for Belize includes both public and publicly-guaranteed debt.

Central government for revenue, expenditure and balance accounts; public sector for gross debt.

Fiscal data cover the nonfinancial public sector excluding the Panama Canal Authority.

Overall and primary balances include off-budget and public-private partnership activities for Barbados and the nonfinancial public sector and quasi-fiscal balances for the Dominican Republic. Revenue and expenditure components of these items are not available and not included in the revenue and primary expenditure estimates.

Eastern Caribbean Currency Union includes Anguilla, Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Grenada, Montserrat, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Lucia, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines. Central government for revenue, expenditure and balance accounts; public sector for gross debt.

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