Abstract

The past year has been one of strong economic performance for the Western Hemisphere, notwithstanding somewhat slower growth in the United States in recent quarters. Can this performance be sustained, and what challenges does the region face? Reviewing macroeconomic prospects and risks, this report pays particular attention to the influence of the external environment on Latin America, and addresses the question of whether Latin America has now succeeded in breaking with its history of periodic growth reversals.

References

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    • Search Google Scholar
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    • Search Google Scholar
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    • Export Citation
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    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Aiolfi, Marco, Luis Catâo, and Allan Timmerman, 2006, “Common Factors in Latin America's Business Cycles,IMF Working Paper 06/49 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Alier, Max, 2007, “Measuring Budget Rigidities in Latin America,” forthcoming IMF Working Paper (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Berg, Andrew, Jonathan Ostry, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2007, “What Makes Growth Sustained?” forthcoming IMF Working Paper (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Barro, Robert, 2001, “Human Capital and Growth,American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, 91 (2): 1217 (May).

  • Becker, Tórbjórn, and Paolo Mauro, 2006, “Output Drops and the Shocks that Matter,IMF Working Paper 06/172 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Clements, Benedict, Christopher Faircloth, and Marijn Verhoeven, 2007, “Public Expenditure in Latin America: Trends and Key Policy Issues,IMF Working Paper 07/21 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • De Ferranti, David, Guillermo Perry, Indermit Gill, J. Luis Guasch, William Maloney, Carolina Sanchez-Paramo, and Norbert Schady, 2003, Closing the Gap in Education and Technology (Washington: World Bank).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • De Ferranti, David, Guillermo Perry, Francisco Ferreira, and Michael Walton, 2004, Inequality in Eatin America and the Caribbean: Breaking with History (Washington: World Bank).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Gupta, Sanjeev, Emanuele, Baldacci, Benedict, Clements, and Erwin Tiongson, 2005, “What Sustains Fiscal Consolidation in Emerging Market Countries?International Journal of Finance and Economics, Vol. 10, pp. 307321.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hanushek, Eric, and Dennis Kimko, 2000, “Schooling, Labor-Force Quality, and the Growth of Nations,American Economic Review 90 (5): 11841208.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • International Monetary Fund, 2006a, World Economic Outlook, September (Washington).

  • International Monetary Fund, 2006b, Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere (Washington).

  • International Monetary Fund, 2007a, World Economic Outlook: April 2007 (Washington).

  • International Monetary Fund, 2007b, Global Financial Stability Report: April 2007 (Washington).

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    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Loayza, Norman, Pablo Fajnzylber, and Cesar Calderón, 2005, Economic Growth in Eatin America and the Caribbean: Stylized Facts, Explanations, and Forecasts (Washington: World Bank).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
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    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ôsterholm, Par, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2007, “The Effect of External Conditions on Growth in Latin America,” forthcoming IMF Working Paper (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Organization for Cooperation and Economic Development, 2001, Knowledge and Skills for Efe: First Results from PISA 2000-Publications 2000 (Paris: OECD).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Organization for Cooperation and Economic Development, 2004, Eearningfor Tomorrow's World: First Results from PISA 2003 (Paris: OECD).

  • Pritchett, Lant, 2000, “Understanding Patterns of Economic Growth: Searching for Hills Among Plateaus, Mountains, and Plains,” World Bank Economic Review, May, pp. 221250.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), 2007, EFA Global Monitoring Report, Education for All: Strong Foundations (Paris: UNESCO).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Roache, Shaun, 2007, “Public Investment and Growth in the Caribbean,” forthcoming IMF Working Paper (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Sahay, Ratna, David O. Robinson, and Paul Cashin, 2006, The Caribbean: From Vulnerability to Sustained Growth (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Singh, Anoop, 2006, “Macroeconomic Volatility: The Policy Lessons From Latin America,IMF Working Paper 06/166 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Singh, Anoop, Martin, Cerisola, 2006, “Sustaining Latin America's Resurgence: Some Historical Perspectives,IMF Working Paper 06/252 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Vegas, Emiliana, and Jenny Petrow, forthcoming, Raising Student learning in Fatin America: The Challenge for the 21st Century (Washington: World Bank).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Villani, Mattias, 2005, “Inference in Vector Autoregressive Models with an Informative Prior on the Steady State,Working Paper No. 181, Sveriges Riksbank (Stockholm: Sveriges Riksbank).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Wacziarg, Romain, and Welch, Karen Horn 2003, “Trade Liberalization and Growth: New Evidence,NBER Working Paper No. 10152 (Cambridge, Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • World Economic Forum, 2006, Global Competitiveness Report 2006—2007 (Basingstoke, Hampshire, United Kingdom: Palgrave Macmillan).

  • Zettelmeyer, Jeromin, 2006, “Growth and Reforms in Latin America: A Survey of Facts and Arguments,IMF Working Paper 06/210 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation