Back Matter
  • 1 0000000404811396https://isni.org/isni/0000000404811396International Monetary Fund
  • | 2 0000000404811396https://isni.org/isni/0000000404811396International Monetary Fund
  • | 3 0000000404811396https://isni.org/isni/0000000404811396International Monetary Fund

Abstract

The key policy challenge for Turkey in the years ahead will be to enhance and consolidate the advances made since the nation’s 2000-01 economic crisis. Higher growth could reduce unemployment and raise living standards toward European Union levels. This paper reviews Turkey’s policy performance in terms of growth, inflation, debt, fiscal and financial sector reform, and labor markets. The analysis assesses the effectiveness of macroeconomic stabilization and structural reforms since the crisis and provides guideposts for future policy.

References

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    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
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  • Alesina, Alberto, and Roberto Perotti, 1996, “Fixed Adjustments in OECD Countries: Composition and Macroeconomic Effects,” IMF Working Paper 96/70 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Allen, Mark, Christoph Rosenberg, Christian Keller, Brad Setser, and Nouriel Roubini, 2002, “A Balance Sheet Approach to Financial Crisis,” IMF Working Paper 02/210 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Alper, C. Emre, and Ziya Önis, 2004, “The Turkish Banking System, Financial Crises and the IMF in the Age of Capital Account Liberalization: A Political Economy Perspective,” New Perspectives on Turkey No. 30 (Istanbul: History Foundation of Turkey).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Anand, Ritu, Ajay Chhibber, and Sweder van Wijnbergen, 1988, “External Balance, Fiscal Policy, and Growth in Turkey,” World Bank Policy, Planning, and Research Working Paper 86 (Washington: World Bank).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Barro, Robert J., and Jong-Wha Lee, 2000, “International Data on Educational Attainment: Updates and Implications,” CID Working Paper No. 42 (Cambridge, MA: Center for International Development at Harvard University).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Blanchard, Oliver, 2004, “Fiscal Dominance and Inflation Targeting: Lessons from Brazil,” NBER Working Paper No. 10389 (Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Bohn, Henning, 1998, “The Behavior of U.S. Public Debt and Deficits,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 113 (August), pp. 94963.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Bosworth, Barry, and Susan Collins, 2003, “The Empirics of Growth: An Update,” Economics of Developing Countries Papers (September) (Washington: Brookings Institution).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Celasun, Merih, 1990, “Fiscal Aspects of Adjustment in the 1990s,” in The Political Economy of Turkey: Debt, Adjustment, and Sustainability, ed. by Tosun Aricanli and Dani Rodrik (London: Macmillan).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Celasun, Oya, R., Gaston Gelos, and Allesandro Prati, 2003, “Would ‘Cold Turkey’ Work in Turkey?IMF Working Paper 03/49 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Celasun, Oya, R., Gaston Gelos, and Allesandro Prati, 2004, “Obstacles to Disinflation: What is the Role of Fiscal Expectations?Economic Policy, Vol. 19, No. 40 (October), pp. 44181.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Cohen, Daniel, 2000, “The HIPC Initiative: True and False Promises,” Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Centre Working Paper No. 166 (Paris: OECD Development Centre).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Dutz, Mark, Melek Us, and Kamil Yilmaz, 2005, “Turkey’s Foreign Direct Investment Challenges: Competition, the Rule of Law, and EU Accession,” in Turkey: Towards EU Accession, ed. by Bernard Hoekman and Subidey Togan (Oxford: Oxford University Press for the World Bank).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Easterly, William, 2001, “The Lost Decades: Developing Countries’ Stagnation in Spite of Policy Reform, 1980–1998,” Journal of Economic Growth, Vol. 6, No. 2, pp. 13557.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Erzan, Refik, Alpay Filiztekin, and Unal Zenginobuz, 2003, “Impact of the Customs Union with EU on Turkish Manufacturing Industry,” paper presented at the ninth annual conference of the Economic Research Forum, United Arab Emirates, October 2628.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Fatás, Antonio, and Ilian Mihov, 2003, “The Case for Restricting Fiscal Policy Discretion,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 118, No. 4 (November), pp.141947.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Favero, Carlo, 2002, “How Do European Monetary and Fiscal Authorities Behave?Center for Economic Policy Research Discussion Paper No. 3426 (London: Centre for Economic Policy Research).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Favero, Carlo, Francesco Giavazzi, 2004, “Inflation Targeting and Debt: Lessons from Brazil,” Center for Economic Policy Research Discussion Paper No. 4376 (London: Centre for Economic Policy Research).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Gali, Jordi, and Mark Gertler, 1999, “Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Econometric Analysis,” Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 44, Issue 2, pp. 195222.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Gali, Jordi, and Mark Gertler, Roberto Perotti, 2003, “Fiscal Policy and Monetary Integration in Europe,” Economic Policy, Vol. 18 No. 37 (October), pp. 53572.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Garcia, Marcio, and Roberto Rigobon, 2004, “A Risk Management Approach to Emerging Market’s Sovereign Debt Sustainability with an Application to Brazilian Data,” NBER Working Paper No. 10336 (Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Giavazzi, Francesco, 2003, “Inflation Targeting and Fiscal Policy Regime: The Experience of Brazil,” Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin (Autumn).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Goldstein, Morris, 2003, “Debt Sustainability, Brazil, and the IMF,” IIE Working Paper 03-1 (Washington: Institute for International Economics).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Goldstein, Morris, Philip Turner, 2004, Controlling Currency Mismatches in Emerging Markets (Washington: Institute of International Economics).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Gupta, Sanjeev, Emanuele Baldacci, Benedict J. Clements, and Erwin R. Tiongson, 2003, “What Sustains Fiscal Consolidations in Emerging Market Countries?IMF Working Paper 02/224 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Heston, Alan, Robert Summers, and Bettina Aten, 2002, Penn World Table Version 6.1, Center for International Comparisons at the University of Pennsylvania (CICUP), October.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • International Monetary Fund (IMF), 2003, “Public Debt in Emerging Market Economies: Is It Too High?in World Economic Outlook September, 2005 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Krueger, Anne O., 2004. “Pursuing the Achievable: Macroeconomic Stability and Sustainable Growth in Turkey,” speech to the Economic Congress of Turkey, Izmir, May 5, 2004, www.imf.org/external/np/speeches/2004/050504.htm.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Krueger, Anne O., Okan H., Aktan, 1992, Swimming Against the Tide: Turkish Trade Reforms in the 1980s (San Francisco: International Center for Economic Growth, ICS Press.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kruger, Mark, and Miguel Messmacher, 2004, “Sovereign Debt Defaults and Financing Needs,” IMF Working Paper 04/53 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Maddison, Angus, 2001, The World Economy: Historical Statistics (Paris: Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Centre).

  • Manasse, Paolo, Nouriel Roubini, and Axel Schimmelpfennig, 2003, “Predicting Sovereign Debt Crisis,” IMF Working Paper 03/221 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Mody, Ashoka, and Martin Schindler, 2004, “Argentina’s Growth: A Puzzle?” (unpublished; Washington: International Monetary Fund).

  • Önis, Ziya, 2004, “Turgut Ozal and His Economic Legacy: Turkish Neo-Liberalism in Critical Perspective,” Middle Eastern StudiesVol. 40, No. 4.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Önis, Ziya, James Riedel, 1993, Economic Crises and Long-Term Growth in Turkey, World Bank Comparative Macroeconomic Studies, Vol. 1 (Washington: World Bank).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ozler, Sule, and Kamil Yilmaz, 2004, “Does Trade Liberalization Improve Productivity? Plant Level Evidence from Turkish Manufacturing Industry” (unpublished; Istanbul: Koc University).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Pattillo, Catherine, Helene Poirson, and Luca Ricci, 2004, “Through What Channels Does External Debt Affect Growth?in Brookings Trade Forum 2003, ed. by Susan M. Collins and Dani Rodrik (Washington: Brookings Institution), pp. 22977.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Political Risk Services Group, 2003, International Country Risk Guide, www.ICRGOnline.com.

  • Ramey, Garey, and Valerie A. Ramey, 1995, “Cross-Country Evidence on the Link Between Volatility and Growth,” American Economic Review, Vol. 85, No. 5, pp. 113851.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Reinhart, Carmen, Kenneth Rogoff, and Miguel Savastano, 2003, “Debt Intolerance,” NBER Working Paper No. 9908 (Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Rodrik, Dani, 1999, “Where Did All the Growth Go? External Shocks, Social Conflict, and Growth Collapses,” Journal of Economic Growth, Vol. 4, No. 4, pp. 385412.

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