This September 2004 issue of the Global Financial Stability Report highlights that over the past six months, the global financial system, especially the health of financial intermediaries, has been further strengthened by the broadening economic recovery. The financial system has not looked as resilient as it does in the summer of 2004, in the three years since the bursting of the equity bubble. Financial intermediaries, banks and nonbanks alike, have strengthened their balance sheets to a point where they could, if necessary, absorb considerable shocks.
3.11 United States: Assets Under Management of Private Pension Schemes
4.1 Capital Flows to Emerging Markets
4.2 Private and Official Outflows/Inflows of Residents and Nonresidents in Emerging Markets
4.3 International Equity Issuance and FDI in China vs. All Other Emerging Market Countries
4.4 Capital Flow Trends for Crisis and Non-Crisis Countries
4.5 Cumulative Net External Debt Issuance: Crisis vs. Non-Crisis Countries
4.6 Selected Emerging Market Crisis Countries: Sudden Stops, Asset Prices, and GDP
4.7 Distance to Distress in Selected Emerging Market Crisis Countries
4.8 Reserves to Short-Term Debt Ratios and Sovereign Default Probabilities
4.9 Welfare Effects of Self-Insurance Policy
4.10 Global Imbalances
4.11 Net Private Capital Flows to Emerging Markets and Foreign Purchases of G3 Bonds and Stocks
4.12 Risk-Adjusted Rates of Return
4.13 Emerging Market Mutual and Hedge Fund Assets
The following symbols have been used throughout this volume:
… to indicate that data are not available;
— to indicate that the figure is zero or less than half the final digit shown, or that the item does not exist;
- between years or months (for example, 1997-99 or January-June) to indicate the years or months covered, including the beginning and ending years or months;
/ between years (for example, 1998/99) to indicate a fiscal or financial year.
“Billion” means a thousand million; “trillion” means a thousand billion.
“Basis points” refer to hundredths of 1 percentage point (for example, 25 basis points are equivalent to ¼ of 1 percentage point).
“n.a.” means not applicable.
Minor discrepancies between constituent figures and totals are due to rounding.
As used in this volume the term “country” does not in all cases refer to a territorial entity that is a state as understood by international law and practice. As used here, the term also covers some territorial entities that are not states but for which statistical data are maintained on a separate and independent basis.
The Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) assesses global financial market developments with the view to identifying potential systemic weaknesses. By calling attention to potential fault lines in the global financial system, the report seeks to play a role in preventing crises, thereby contributing to global financial stability and to sustained economic growth of the IMF’s member countries.
The report was prepared by the International Capital Markets Department (ICM), under the direction of the Counsellor and Director, Gerd Häusler. It is managed by an Editorial Committee comprising Hung Q. Tran (Chairman), W. Todd Groome, Jorge Roldos, and David J. Ordoobadi, and benefits from comments and suggestions from Charles R. Blitzer and L. Effie Psalida. Other ICM staff contributing to this issue include Renzo Avesani, Nicolas Blancher, Elie Canetti, Jorge Chan-Lau, Peter Dattels, Toni Gravelle, François Haas, Anna Ilyina, Markus Krygier, William Lee, Chris Morris, Jürgen Odenius, Kazunari Ohashi, Li Lian Ong, Lars Pedersen, Magdalena Polan, Manmohan Singh, Juan Solé, Rupert Thorne, Laura Valderrama, and Yingbin Xiao. Other contributors included Robert Gillingham, Peter Heller, and Dominique Simard of the Fiscal Affairs Department; a staff team of the Monetary and Financial Systems Department that included Robert Corker, Anne-Marie Guide, S. Kal Wajid, Sean Craig, Gianni De Nicoló, Jan Willem van der Vossen, and Kalin Tintchev; and Kenichiro Kashiwase and Laura Kodres of the Research Department. Martin Edmonds, Ivan Guerra, Silvia Iorgova, Anne Jansen, Oksana Khadarina, Yoon Sook Kim, Ned Rumpeltin, and Peter Tran provided research assistance. Caroline Bagworth, Cynthia Galang, Vera Jasenovec, Elsa Portaro, and Ramanjeet Singh provided expert word processing assistance. Jeff Hayden of the External Relations Department edited the manuscript and coordinated production of the publication.
This particular issue draws, in part, on a series of informal discussions with commercial and investment banks, securities firms, asset management companies, hedge funds, insurance companies, pension funds, stock and futures exchanges, and credit rating agencies in Canada, Colombia, France, Germany, Hong Kong SAR, Italy, Japan, Mexico, the Netherlands, Poland, Singapore, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The report reflects information available up to July 30.
The report has benefited from comments and suggestions from staff in other IMF departments, as well as from Executive Directors following their discussions of the Global Financial Stability Report on August 30, 2004. However, the analysis and policy considerations are those of the contributing staff and should not be attributed to the Executive Directors, their national authorities, or the IMF.