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  • 1 0000000404811396https://isni.org/isni/0000000404811396International Monetary Fund
  • | 2 0000000404811396https://isni.org/isni/0000000404811396International Monetary Fund

Abstract

For developing economies, the restrictive pegged and intermediate regimes appear to deliver lower inflation at apparently little cost in terms of lost growth or higher volatility. Thus, it is not surprising that few developing economies truly float, consistent with the Calvo and Reinhart (2002) hypothesis of fear of floating. In particular, the view that intermediate regimes are an endangered species is belied by their persistence (as discussed in Section II), while their performance is not dominated by either of the polar regimes.

For developing economies, the restrictive pegged and intermediate regimes appear to deliver lower inflation at apparently little cost in terms of lost growth or higher volatility. Thus, it is not surprising that few developing economies truly float, consistent with the Calvo and Reinhart (2002) hypothesis of fear of floating. In particular, the view that intermediate regimes are an endangered species is belied by their persistence (as discussed in Section II), while their performance is not dominated by either of the polar regimes.

A strong case emerges for embracing greater exchange rate flexibility as countries grow richer. With economic advancement, the inflation benefit of pegged and intermediate regimes is lost, perhaps because policy credibility and track record are well established. At the same time, the risk associated with exchange rate flexibility declines as it becomes easier for governments and private agents to borrow in their own currencies. Also growth performance is substantially superior under free floats.

While developing and emerging market economies may prepare for the prospect of floating exchange rates as their institutional progress allows them to do so, they can gain more from the regimes that they do adopt. For developing countries, the inflation benefit associated with exchange rate pegs is greatest if it is an explicit, publicly announced policy goal. In addition, pegged regimes benefit from establishing a successful track record over time, which necessitates consistent macroeconomic policies. Case studies from middle-income countries with open capital accounts show that the fear of floating can be over-come by an investment in learning to float. Thus, though history may lead countries to adopt particular regimes, they can improve the performance of those regimes by learning to manage them better over time.

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193. Exchange Rate Regimes in an Increasingly Integrated World Economy, by Michael Mussa, Paul Masson, Alexander Swoboda, Esteban Jadresic, Paolo Mauro, and Andy Berg. 2000.

192. Macroprudential Indicators of Financial System Soundness, by a staff team led by Owen Evans, Alfredo M. Leone, Mahinder Gill, and Paul Hilbers. 2000.

191. Social Issues in IMF-Supported Programs, by Sanjeev Gupta, Louis Dicks-Mireaux, Ritha Khemani, Calvin McDonald, and Marijn Verhoeven. 2000.

190. Capital Controls: Country Experiences with Their Use and Liberalization, by Akira Ariyoshi, Karl Habermeier, Bernard Laurens, Inci Ötker-Robe, Jorge Iván Canales Kriljenko, and Andrei Kirilenko. 2000.

189. Current Account and External Sustainability in the Baltics, Russia, and Other Countries of the Former Soviet Union, by Donal McGettigan. 2000.

188. Financial Sector Crisis and Restructuring: Lessons from Asia, by Carl-Johan Lindgren, Tomas J.T. Balino, Charles Enoch, Anne-Marie Guide, Marc Quintyn, and Leslie Teo. 1999.

187. Philippines: Toward Sustainable and Rapid Growth, Recent Developments and the Agenda Ahead, by Markus Rodlauer, Prakash Loungani, Vivek Arora, Charalambos Christofides, Enrique G. De la Piedra, Piyabha Kongsamut, Kristina Kostial, Victoria Summers, and Athanasios Vamvakidis. 2000.

186. Anticipating Balance of Payments Crises: The Role of Early Warning Systems, by Andrew Berg, Eduardo Borensztein, Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, and Catherine Pattillo. 1999.

185. Oman Beyond the Oil Horizon: Policies Toward Sustainable Growth, edited by Ahsan Mansur and Volker Treichel. 1999.

184. Growth Experience in Transition Countries, 1990–98, by Oleh Havrylyshyn, Thomas Wolf, Julian Berengaut, Marta Castello-Branco, Ron van Rooden, and Valerie Mercer-Blackman. 1999.

183. Economic Reforms in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, by Emine Gürgen, Harry Snoek, Jon Craig, Jimmy McHugh, Ivailo Izvorski, and Ron van Rooden. 1999.

182. Tax Reform in the Baltics, Russia, and Other Countries of the Former Soviet Union, by a staff team led by Liam Ebrill and Oleh Havrylyshyn. 1999.

Note: For information on the titles and availability of Occasional Papers not listed, please consult the IMF’s Publications Catalog or contact IMF Publication Services.

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