Abstract

Theoretical models have identified a number of channels through which international financial integration can help to promote economic growth in the developing world. It has proven difficult, however, to empirically identify a strong and robust causal relationship between financial integration and growth.

Theoretical models have identified a number of channels through which international financial integration can help to promote economic growth in the developing world. It has proven difficult, however, to empirically identify a strong and robust causal relationship between financial integration and growth.

Potential Benefits of Financial Globalization in Theory

In theory, there are a number of direct and indirect channels through which embracing financial globalization can help enhance growth in developing countries. Figure 3.1 provides a schematic summary of these possible channels. These channels are interrelated in some ways, but this delineation is useful for reviewing the empirical evidence on the quantitative importance of each channel.

Figure 3.1.
Figure 3.1.

Channels Through Which Financial Integration Can Raise Economic Growth

Direct Channels

Augmentation of Domestic Savings

In principle, North-South capital flows benefit both groups. They allow for increased investment in capital-poor countries while providing a higher return on capital than is available in capital-rich countries. This effectively reduces the risk-free rate in the developing countries.

Reduction in Cost of Capital Through Better Global Allocation of Risk

International asset-pricing models predict that stock market liberalization improves the allocation of risk (Henry, 2000a; and Stulz, 1999a and b). First, increased risk-sharing opportunities between foreign and domestic investors might help to diversify risks. Second, the increased ability to diversify risk, in turn, would encourage firms to take on more total investment, thereby enhancing growth. Third, as capital flows increased, the domestic stock market would become more liquid, which could further reduce the equity risk premium, thereby lowering the cost of raising capital for investment.

Transfer of Technological and Managerial Know-How

Financially integrated economies seem to attract a disproportionately large share of FDI inflows, which have the potential to generate technology spillovers and serve as a conduit for passing on better management practices. These spillovers can raise aggregate productivity and, in turn, boost economic growth (Borensztein, De Gregorio, and Lee (1998); MacDougall (1960); and Grossman and Helpman (1991b)).

Stimulation of Domestic Financial Sector Development

It has already been noted that international portfolio flows can increase the liquidity of domestic stock markets. Increased foreign ownership of domestic banks can also generate a variety of other benefits (Levine, 1996; Caprio and Honohan, 1999). First, foreign bank participation can facilitate access to international financial markets. Second, it can help improve the regulatory and supervisory framework of the domestic banking industry. Third, foreign banks often introduce a variety of new financial instruments and techniques and also foster technological improvements in domestic markets. The entry of foreign banks tends to increase competition, which, in turn, can improve the quality of domestic financial services as well as improve allocative efficiency.

Indirect Channels

Promotion of Specialization

The notion that specialization in production may increase productivity and growth is intuitive. Without any mechanism for risk management, however, a highly specialized production structure will produce high output volatility and, hence, high consumption volatility. Concerns about exposure to such increases in volatility may discourage countries from taking up growth-enhancing specialization activities; the higher volatility will also generally imply lower overall saving and investment rates. In principle, financial globalization could play a useful role by helping countries to engage in international risk sharing and thereby reduce consumption volatility. This point will be taken up again in the next section. Here it should just be noted that risk sharing would indirectly encourage specialization, which, in turn, would raise the growth rate. This logic is explained by Brainard and Cooper (1968), Kemp and Liviatan (1973), Ruffin (1974), and Imbs and Wacziarg (2003). Among developed countries and across regions within given developed countries, there is, indeed, some evidence that better risk sharing is associated with higher specialization (Kalemli-Ozcan, Sørensen, and Yosha, 2001).

Commitment to Better Economic Policies

International financial integration could increase productivity in an economy through its impact on the government’s ability to credibly commit to a future course of policies. More specifically, the disciplining role of financial integration could change the dynamics of domestic investment in an economy to the extent that it leads to a reallocation of capital toward more productive activities in response to changes in macroeconomic policies. National governments are occasionally tempted to institute predatory tax policies on physical capital. The prospect of such policies tends to discourage investment and reduce growth. Financial opening can be self-sustaining and constrains the government from engaging in such predatory policies in the future, since the negative consequences of such actions are far more severe under financial integration. Gourinchas and Jeanne (2003a) illustrate this point in a theoretical model.

Signaling

A country’s willingness to undertake financial integration could be interpreted as a signal that it is going to practice more friendly policies toward foreign investment in the future. Bartolini and Drazen (1997a) suggest that the removal of restrictions on capital outflows can, through its signaling role, lead to an increase in capital inflows. Many countries—including Colombia, Egypt, Italy, Mexico, New Zealand, Spain, the United Kingdom, and Uruguay—have received significant capital inflows after removing restrictions on capital outflows.15

Empirical Evidence

On the surface, there seems to be a positive association between embracing financial globalization and achieving economic development. In general, industrial countries are more financially integrated with the global economy than developing countries. Thus, embracing globalization is apparently part of being economically advanced.

Within the developing world, MFI economies grew faster than LFI economies over the last three decades. From 1970 to 1999, average per capita output rose almost threefold in the group of MFI developing economies, six times greater than the average increase experienced by LFI economies. This pattern of higher growth for the former group applies over each of the three decades and also to both consumption and investment growth.

There are two problems, however, with concluding from this data pattern that financial integration has a positive effect on growth. First, this hypothesis may not be able to stand up to closer scrutiny. Second, these observations may reflect only an association between international financial integration and economic performance rather than a causal relationship. In other words, these observations do not rule out the possibility that there is reverse causation: countries that manage to enjoy robust growth may also choose to engage in financial integration even if financial globalization does not directly contribute to faster growth in a quantitatively significant way.

To obtain an intuitive impression of the relationship between financial openness and growth, Table 3.1 presents a list of the fastest-growing developing economies during 1980-2000 and a list of the slowest-growing (or, rather, the fastest-declining) economies during the same period. Some countries underwent financial integration during this period, especially in the latter half of the 1990s.16 Therefore, any result based on total changes over this long period should be interpreted with caution. Nonetheless, several features of the table are noteworthy.

Table 3.1.

Fastest- and Slowest-Growing Economies During 1980-2000 and Their Status of Financial Openness

article image
Source: IMF staff calculations based on the World Bank’s World Development Indicators (WDI) database.

Growth rate of real per capita GDP, in constant local currency unit.

An obvious observation that can be made from the table is that financial integration is not a necessary condition for achieving a high growth rate. China and India have achieved high growth rates despite somewhat limited and selective capital account liberalization. For example, although China became substantially more open to foreign direct investment, it was not particularly open to most other types of cross-border capital flows. Mauritius and Botswana have managed to achieve very strong growth rates during the period although they are relatively closed to financial flows.

The second observation that can be made is that financial integration is not a sufficient condition for a fast economic growth rate either. For example, Jordan and Peru became relatively open to foreign capital flows, yet their economies experienced negative rather than positive growth, during the period. Nonetheless, Table 3.1 also suggests that declining economies are more likely to be financially closed, though the direction of causality is not clear.

This way of looking at countries with extreme growth performances is only informative up to a point; it needs to be supplemented by a comprehensive examination of the experience of a broader set of countries using a more systematic approach to measuring financial openness. To illustrate this relationship more broadly, Figure 3.2 presents a scatter plot of the growth rate of real per capita GDP against the increase in financial integration over 1982–97. There is essentially no association between these variables. Figure 3.3 presents a scatter plot of these two variables after taking into account the effects of a country’s initial income, initial schooling, average investment-to-GDP ratio, political instability, and regional location. Again, the figure does not suggest a positive association between financial integration and economic growth. In fact, this finding is not unique to the particular choice of time period or country coverage, as is reflected in a broad variety of other research papers on the subject.

Figure 3.2.
Figure 3.2.

Increase in Financial Openness and Growth of Real Per Capita GDP

(Simple correlation, 1982-97)

Source: IMF staff calculations based on the data documented in Wei and Wu (2002b).Notes: Capital account openness is measured as (gross private capital inflows + gross private capital outflows)/GDR. Coef = 0.002; Robust SE = 0.003; and t-statistic = 0.67.
Figure 3.3.
Figure 3.3.

Increase in Financial Openness and Growth of Real Per Capita GDP: Conditional Relationship, 1982-97

(Conditioning on initial income, initial schooling, average investment/GDP, political instability (revolution and coup), end regional dummies)

Source: IMF staff calculations based on the data documented in Wei and Wu (2002b).Notes: Capital account openness is measured by (gross private capital inflows + gross private capital outflows)/GDR. Coef = 0.006; Robust SE = 0.004; and t-statistic = 1.42.

A number of empirical studies have tried to systematically examine whether financial integration contributes to growth using various approaches to dealing with the difficult problem of proving causation. Table 3.2 summarizes the 14 most recent studies on this subject.17 Three of these papers report a positive effect of financial integration on growth. However, the majority of the papers tend to find no effect or a mixed effect for developing countries. This suggests that if financial integration has a positive effect on growth, it is probably neither strong nor robust (see Box 3.1).18

Table 3.2.

Summary of Recent Research on Financial Integration and Economic Growth

article image
Sources: Extended by IMF staff members from IMF (2001); and Edison, Klein, Ricci, and Sløk (2002).

Of the papers summarized in Table 3.2, the one by Edison, Levine, Ricci, and Sløk (2002) is perhaps the most thorough and comprehensive in terms of measures of financial integration and in terms of empirical specifications. These authors measure a country’s degree of financial integration both by the government’s restrictions on capital account transactions as recorded in the IMF’s Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions and by the observed size of capital flows crossing the border, normalized by the size of the economy. The dataset in that paper goes through 2000, the latest year analyzed in any existing study on this subject. Furthermore, the authors also employ a statistical methodology that allows them to deal with possible reverse causality—that is, the possibility that any observed association between financial integration and growth could occur because faster-growing economies are more likely to choose to liberalize their capital accounts. After a battery of statistical analyses, that paper concludes that, overall, there is no robustly significant effect of financial integration on economic growth.

Synthesis

Why is it so difficult to find a strong and robust effect of financial integration on economic growth for developing countries, when the theoretical basis for this result is apparently so strong? Perhaps there is some logic to this outcome after all. A number of researchers have now concluded that most of the differences in per capita income across countries stem not from differences in capital-labor ratios but from differences in total factor productivity, which, in turn, could be explained by soft factors or social infrastructure such as governance, the rule of law, and respect for property rights.19 In this case, although financial integration may open the door for additional capital to come in from abroad, it is unlikely, by itself, to offer a major boost to growth. In fact, if domestic governance is sufficiently weak, financial integration could cause an exodus of domestic capital and, hence, lower the growth rate of an economy.

Effects of Different Types of Capital Flows on Growth

The cumulative evidence from the literature does not offer clear-cut and robust support for the notion that capital flows generically provide a quantitatively big boost to economic growth. There have been several studies, however, that suggest that different types of capital flows may have different effects.

Using data for the 1980s, De Mello (1999) reports evidence that FDI flows appear to promote economic growth in developing as well as Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries. Borenzstein, De Gregorio, and Lee (1998) find that the positive effect of FDI can be detected when the recipient countries have a sufficiently high level of human capital.

FDI and other types of capital flows into developing countries started to pick up momentum in the 1990s, which makes it highly desirable to look at the evidence based on more recent data. Reisen and So to (2001) examine six types of capital flows: foreign direct investment, portfolio equity flows, portfolio bond flows, long-term bank credits, short-term bank credits, and official flows. They employ a dynamic panel regression framework to deal with potential endogeneity and missing variable problems and cover 44 countries over the period 1986–97. Of the six types of capital flows, only two, namely FDI and portfolio equity flows, are positively associated with subsequent economic growth rates.

Other studies have looked into the effects of different types of capital flows on domestic investment (and, hence, indirectly on growth). Bosworth and Collins (1999) analyzed such relationships using data covering 1979–95, focusing on variations within countries over time rather than variations across countries. These authors first removed the country means from the data and then regressed investment and savings shares on various forms of capital inflows (relative to GDP). They found that more FDI and bank lending are positively associated with increases in domestic investment. In contrast, the association between portfolio capital inflows and domestic investment, while positive, is not statistically significant. These authors made an attempt to deal with the possibility that capital flows are endogenous, meaning that capital flows and domestic investment can both be determined simultaneously by a common third factor.

The World Bank’s Global Development Finance (2001) replicated the Bosworth-Collins study using a dataset with more countries and a longer time period (1972-98). It found that the association between FDI (or other long-term capital inflows or bank lending) and domestic investment is stronger than between short-term debt and domestic investment. The association between portfolio capital and domestic investment is not statistically significant.

To summarize, across different recent studies surveyed here, FDI is one form of capital inflow that tends to be positively associated with domestic investment and domestic growth in a relatively consistent manner. Other forms of capital inflows could also have a positive relationship, but their effects tend to be less robust or less strong.

This logic can be illustrated using the results reported in Senhadji (2000). Over the period 1960 to 1994, the average growth rate of per capita output for the group of countries in sub-Saharan Africa was the lowest among regional groupings of developing countries. The difference in physical and human capital accumulation is only part of the reason why growth rates differ across countries. The gap in total factor productivity is the major element in explaining the difference in the growth rates.

Another possible explanation of why it is difficult to detect a causal effect of financial integration on growth is the costly banking crises that some developing countries have experienced in the process of financial integration. The results in Kaminsky and Reinhart (1999) suggest that a flawed sequencing of domestic financial liberalization, when accompanied by capital account liberalization, increases the chance of domestic banking crises and/or exchange rate crises. These crises are often accompanied by output collapses. As a result, the benefits from financial integration may not be evident in the data.20

It is interesting to contrast the empirical literature on the effects of financial integration with that on the effects of trade integration. Although there are some skeptics (Rodriguez and Rodrik, 2001), an overwhelming majority of empirical papers reach the conclusion that trade openness helps to promote economic growth. These studies employ a variety of techniques, including country case studies as well as cross-country regressions. In a recent paper that surveys all the prominent empirical research on the subject, Krueger and Berg (2002) conclude that “[v]aried evidence supports the view that trade openness contributes greatly to growth.” Furthermore, “[crosscountry regressions of the level of income on various determinants generally show that openness is the most important policy variable.”

Do Financial and Trade Integration Have Different Effects on Economic Development? Evidence from Life Expectancy and Infant Mortality

As an alternative to examining the effect of openness on economic growth, this box asks whether trade and financial integration help to raise life expectancy and reduce infant mortality in developing countries and whether their effects are different.

There are three motivations for studying these questions. First, as life expectancy and infant mortality are important dimensions of a society’s well-being, they are interesting objects to look at in their own right. Second, data on income level or growth come from national accounts, so all studies on economic growth have to make use of similar data sources. In comparison, vital statistics come from an entirely different data source (that is, birth and death records) and are typically collected by different government agencies. They therefore offer an independent and complementary check on the effect of openness on the livelihood of people. Third, to compare income levels or growth rates across countries, it is necessary to make certain purchasing power parity (PPP) adjustments to nominal income. However, existing PPP adjustments may not be reliable (Deaton, 2001). In contrast, the definitions of life and death are consistent across countries, so vital statistics have a higher degree of comparability than the data on poverty, income, or income distribution.

Data on 79 developing countries over the period 1962-97 are examined. This dataset covers all developing countries for which the relevant data exist and for which changes in infant mortality and life expectancy are not dominated by large-scale wars, genocides, famines, or major outbursts of AIDS. Panel regressions with country fixed effects and dynamic panel regressions are employed to account for other factors that may affect health and to account for possible endogeneity of the openness variables.

The results, summarized in Figure 3.4, suggest that the effects of trade and financial openness are different. There is no positive and robust association across developing countries between a faster increase in financial integration and a faster improvement in a society’s health. By comparison, there are several pieces of evidence suggesting that higher trade integration is associated with a faster increase in life expectancy and a faster reduction in infant mortality. For example, an 11 percentage point reduction in the average statutory tariff rate—approximately equal to one standard deviation of the change in the statutory tariff rate over the 1962–97 period—is associated with between 3 and 6 fewer infants dying per thousand live births, even after controlling for the effects of changes in per capita income, average level of female education, and other factors.

Source: Wei and Wu (2002b).
Figure 3.4.
Figure 3.4.

Differential Effects of Financial and Trade Integration on Improvements in Health

Source: IMF staff calculations based on Wei and Wu (2002b).Notes: On the vertical axes in the top two panels is log life expectancy at birth (in years). On the vertical axes in the bottom two panels is infant mortality, defined as the number of infants who die before reaching their first birthday per 1,000 live births. Tariff rate refers to average statutory tariff rate, and financial integration is measured by (gross private capital inflows + gross private capital outflows) / GDP.

The differential effects between trade and financial integration are echoed in other empirical research (see Box 3.2). As an alternative to examining the effects on economic growth or level of income, one can examine the effects of trade and financial openness on a society’s health status. Using data on 79 developing countries, Wei and Wu (2002b) report several pieces of evidence suggesting that a faster increase in trade openness—especially when measured by the reduction in tariff rates—is associated with a faster increase in life expectancy and a faster reduction in infant mortality, even after one takes into account the effects of income, institutions, and other factors. In contrast, greater financial integration is not associated with a faster-improvement in a society’s health status. This suggests that, as may be seen in the growth literature, trade integration appears to play a more beneficial role than financial integration in developing countries.

The contrast between financial and trade openness may have important lessons for policies. While there appear to be relatively few prerequisites for deriving benefits from trade openness, obtaining benefits from financial integration requires several conditions to be met. This is discussed in more detail in Section V.

It is useful to note that there may be a complementary relationship between trade and financial openness.21 For example, if a country has severe trade barriers protecting some inefficient domestic industries, then capital inflows may end up being directed to those industries, thereby exacerbating the existing misallocation of resources. Thus, there is a concrete channel through which financial openness without trade openness could lower a country’s level of efficiency.

Of course, the lack of a strong and robust effect of financial integration on economic growth does not necessarily imply that theories that make this connection are wrong. One could argue that the theories are about the long-run effects, and most theories abstract from the nitty-gritty of institution building, governance improvement, and other soft factors that are necessary for the hypothesized channels to operate. Indeed, developing countries may have little choice but to strengthen their financial linkages eventually in order to improve their growth potential in the long run. The problem is how to manage the short-run risks apparently associated with financial globalization. Financial integration without a proper set of preconditions might lead to few growth benefits and more output and consumption volatility in the short run.

Cited By

  • View in gallery

    Channels Through Which Financial Integration Can Raise Economic Growth

  • View in gallery

    Increase in Financial Openness and Growth of Real Per Capita GDP

    (Simple correlation, 1982-97)

  • View in gallery

    Increase in Financial Openness and Growth of Real Per Capita GDP: Conditional Relationship, 1982-97

    (Conditioning on initial income, initial schooling, average investment/GDP, political instability (revolution and coup), end regional dummies)

  • View in gallery

    Differential Effects of Financial and Trade Integration on Improvements in Health

  • Abed, George, and Sanjeev Gupta, 2002, Governance, Corruption, and Economic Performance (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

  • Acemoglu, Daron, Simon Johnson, and James A. Robinson, 2001, “Reversal of Fortune: Geography and Institutions in the Making of the Modern World Income Distribution,MIT Working Paper 01/38 (Cambridge, Massachusetts: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Economics).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Aitken, Brian, and Ann Harrison, 1999, “Do Domestic Firms Benefit from Direct Foreign Investment? Evidence from Venezuela,American Economic Review, Vol. 89 (June), pp. 60518.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Aizenman, Joshua, 2002, “Volatility, Employment, and the Patterns of FDI in Emerging Markets,NBER Working Paper No. 9397 (Cambridge, Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Alesina, Alberto, Vittorio Grilli, and Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 1994, “The Political Economy of Capital Controls,” in Capital Mobility: The Impact on Consumption, Investment, and Growth, ed. by Leonardo Leiderman and Assaf Razin (Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press for the Center for Economic Policy Research).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Alfaro, Laura, Areendam Chanda, Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, and Selin Sayek, 2002, “FDI and Economic Growth, The Role of Local Financial Markets,” Working Paper (University of Houston).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Allum, Peter, and Mehmet Agça, 2001, “Economic Data Dissemination: What Influences Country Performance on Frequency and Timeliness?IMF Working Paper 01/173 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Arteta, Carlos, Barry Eichengreen, and Charles Wyplosz, 2001, “On the Growth Effects of Capital Account Liberalization” (unpublished; Berkeley: University of California).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Athanasoulis, Stefano, and Robert Shiller, 2001, “World Income Components: Measuring and Exploiting Risk-Sharing Opportunities,American Economic Review, Vol. 91 (September), pp. 103154.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Athanasoulis, Stefano, and Eric van Wincoop, 1997, “Growth Uncertainty and Risksharing,” Staff Report No. 30 (Federal Reserve Bank of New York).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Athanasoulis, Stefano, and Eric van Wincoop,, 2000, “Growth Uncertainty and Risksharing,Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 45 (June), pp. 477505.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Attanasio, Orazio P., and Giovanni L. Violante, 2000, “The Demographic Transition in Closed and Open Economies: A Tale of Two Regions,IADB Working Paper No. 412 (Washington: Inter-American Development Bank).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Auffret, Philippe, 2001, “An Alternative Unifying Measure of Welfare Gains from Risk Sharing,World Bank Working Paper No. 2676 (Washington: World Bank).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Backus, David K., Patrick J. Kehoe, and Finn E. Kydland, 1992, “International Real Business Cycles,Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 100 (August), pp. 74575.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Bailliu, Jeannine, 2000, “Private Capital Flows, Financial Development, and Economic Growth in Developing Countries,Bank of Canada Working Paper No. 2000-15 (Ottawa: Bank of Canada).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Bakker, Age, and Bryan Chapple, 2002, Advanced Country Experiences with Capital Account Liberalization, IMF Occasional Paper No. 214 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Baldacci, Emanuele, Luiz de Mello, and Gabriela Inchauste, 2002, “Financial Crises, Poverty, and Income Distribution,Finance & Development, Vol. 39 (June), pp. 2427.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Bartolini, Leonardo, and Allan Drazen, 1997a, “Capital-Account Liberalization as a Signal,American Economic Review, Vol. 87 (March), pp. 13854.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Bartolini, Leonardo, and Allan Drazen, , 1997b, “When Liberal Policies Reflect External Shocks, What Do We Learn?Journal of International Economics, Vol. 42 (May), pp. 24973.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Bayoumi, Tamim, Giorgio Fazio, Manmohan Kumar, and Ronald MacDonald, 2003, “Fatal Attraction: Using Distance to Measure Contagion in Good Times as Well as Bad,CEPR Discussion Paper No. 3870 (London: Center for Economic Policy Research).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Beck, Thorsten, Ross Levine, and Norman Loayza, 2000, “Finance and the Sources of Growth,Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 58 (October-November), pp. 261300.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Bekaert, Geert, Campbell R. Harvey, and Christian Lundblad, 2001a, “Does Financial Liberalization Spur Growth?NBER Working Paper No. 8245 (Cambridge, Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Bekaert, Geert, Campbell R. Harvey, and Christian Lundblad, , 2001b, “Emerging Equity Markets and Economic Development,Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 66 (December), pp. 465504.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Bekaert, Geert, Campbell R. Harvey, and Christian Lundblad, , 2002a, “Growth Volatility and Equity Market Liberalization,” Working Paper (Durham, North Carolina: Fuqua School of Business, Duke University).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Bekaert, Geert, Campbell R. Harvey, and Christian Lundblad, , 2002b, “Does Financial Liberalization Spur Growth?” (unpublished; New York: Columbia University).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Bikhchandani, Sushil, and Sunil Sharma, 2000, “Herd Behavior in Financial Markets,Staff Papers, International Monetary Fund, Vol. 47, No. 3, pp. 279310.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Blankenau, William, M. Ayhan Kose, and Kei-Mu Yi, 2001, “Can World Real Interest Rates Explain Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy?Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 26 (June-July), pp. 86789.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Blomström, Magnus, 1986, “Foreign Investment and Productive Efficiency: The Case of Mexico,Journal of Industrial Economics, Vol. 35 (September), pp. 97110.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Blomström, Magnus Robert Lipsey, and Zejan Mario, 1994, “What Explains Developing Country Growth?NBER Working Paper No. 4132 (Cambridge, Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Borensztein, Eduardo, Jose De Gregorio, and Jong-Wha Lee, 1998, “How Does Foreign Direct Investment Affect Growth?Journal of International Economics, Vol. 45 (June), pp. 11535.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Borensztein, Eduardo, and R. Gaston Gelos, 2002, “A Panic-Prone Pack? The Behavior of Emerging Market Mutual Funds,IMF Working Paper 00/198 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Borensztein, Eduardo, and Paolo Mauro, 2002, “Reviving the Case for GDP-Indexed Bonds,IMF Policy Discussion Paper 02/10 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Bosworth, Barry, and Susan Collins, 1999, “Capital Flows to Developing Economies: Implications for Saving and Investment,Brookings Paper on Economic Activity: 1, Brookings Institution, pp. 14380.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Boyer, Brian H., Michael S. Gibson, and Mico Loretan, 1999, “Pitfalls in Tests for Changes in Correlations,IFS Discussion Paper No. 597R (Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Brainard, William C, and Richard N. Cooper, 1968, “Uncertainty and Diversification of International Trade,Food Research Institute Studies in Agricultural Economics, Trade, and Development, Vol. 8, pp. 25785.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Brooks, Robin, 2000, “Population Aging and Global Capital Flows in a Parallel Universe,IMF Working Paper 00/151 (Washington: International Monetary Fund), forthcoming in IMF Staff Papers.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Buch, Claudia M., Jörg Döpke, and Christian Pierdzioch, 2002, “Financial Openness and Business Cycle Volatility,Working Paper (Kiel, Germany: Kiel Institute for World Economics).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Calvo, Guillermo, 1998, “Varieties of Capital-Market Crises,IEA Conference Volume No. 118 (New York: St. Martin’s Press and London: Macmillan Press for the International Economic Association).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Calvo, Guillermo, and Carmen Reinhart, 1993, “Capital Inflows and Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Latin America: The Role of External Factors,Staff Papers, International Monetary Fund, Vol. 40 (March), pp. 10851.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Calvo, Guillermo, and Carmen M. Reinhart, 1999, “Capital Flow Reversals, the Exchange Rate Debate, and Dollarization,Finance & Development, Vol. 36 (September), pp. 1315.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Calvo, Guillermo, and Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000, “When Capital Inflows Suddenly Stop: Consequences and Policy Options” in Reforming the International Monetary and Financial System, ed. by Peter B. Kenen and Alexander K. Swoboda (Washington: International Monetary Fund), pp. 175201.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Calvo, Guillermo, and Carmen M. Reinhart, , 2002, “Fear of Floating,Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 117 (May), pp. 379408.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Caprio, Gerard, and Patrick Honohan, 1999, “Restoring Banking Stability: Beyond Supervised Capital Requirements,Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 13 (Fall), pp. 4364.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Caramazza, Francesco, Luca Ricci, and Ranil Salgado, 2000, “Trade and Financial Contagion in Currency Crises,IMF Working Paper 00/55 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Carlson,Mark A., and Leonardo Hernandez, 2002, “Determinants and Repercussions of the Composition of Capital Inflows,IMF Working Paper 02/86 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Chanda, Areendam, 2000, “The Influence of Capital Controls on Long Run Growth: Where and How Much?Working Paper (Raleigh, North Carolina: North Carolina State University).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Choe, Hyuk, Bong-Chan Kho, and Rene Stulz, 1999, “Do Foreign Investors Destabilize Stock Markets? The Korean Experience in 1997,Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 54 (October), pp. 22764.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Claessens, Stijn, and Kristin Forbes, 2001, International Financial Contagion (Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers).

  • Cole, Harold L., and Maurice Obstfeld, 1991, “Commodity Trade and International Risksharing: How Much Do Financial Markets Matter?Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 28 (August), pp. 324.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Corsetti, Giancarlo, Marcello Pericoli, and Massimo Sbracia, 2002, “Some Contagion, Some Interdependence: More Pitfalls in Tests of Financial Contagion,CEPR Discussion Paper No. 3310 (London: Center for Economic Policy Research).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Deaton, Angus, 2001, “Counting the World’s Poor: Problems and Possible Solutions,World Bank Research Observer, Vol. 16 (Fall), pp. 12547.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • de Ferranti, David, and others, 2000, Securing Our Future in a Global Economy (Washington: World Bank).

  • Delias, Harris, and Martin K. Hess, 2002, “Financial Development and the Sensitivity of Stock Markets to External Influences,Review of International Economics, Vol. 10 (August), pp. 52538.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • De Mello, Luiz, 1999, “Foreign Direct Investment-Led Growth: Evidence from Time Series and Panel Data,Oxford Economic Papers, Vol. 51 (January), pp. 13351.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Demirgüç-Kunt, Aslí, and Enrica Detragiache, 1998, “Financial Liberalization and Financial Fragility,IMF Working Paper 98/83 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Demirgüç-Kunt, Aslí, and Enrica Detragiache, , 1999, “Financial Liberalization and Financial Fragility,” in Annual World Bank Conference on Development Economics 1998, ed. by Boris Pleskovic Joseph E. Stiglitz (Washington: World Bank).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Demirgüç-Kunt, Aslí, and Vojislav Maksimovic, 1999, “Institutions, Financial Markets, and Firm Debt Maturity,Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 54 (December), pp. 295336.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Detragiache, Enrica, and Antonio Spilimbergo, 2001, “Crises and Liquidity: Evidence and Interpretation,IMF Working Paper 01/2 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Dollar, David, and Aart Kraay, 2001a, “Growth Is Good for the Poor,World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 2587 (Washington: World Bank).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Dollar, David, and Aart Kraay, , 2001b, “Trade, Growth, and Poverty,Finance & Development, Vol. 38 (September), pp. 1619.

  • Dooley, Michael P., Stijn Claessens, and Andrew Warner, 1995, “Portfolio Capital Flows: Hot or Cool?World Bank Economic Review, Vol. 9, No. 1, pp. 53174, reprinted in Mike J. Howell, ed., 1996, Investing in Emerging Markets (London: Eurocurrency Publications).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Easterly, William, Roumeen Islam, and Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2001, “Shaken and Stirred: Explaining Growth Volatility,in Annual World Bank Conference on Development Economics, ed. Boris Pleskovic Nicholas Stern (Washington: World Bank).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Easterly, William, and Ross Levine, 2001, “It’s Not Factor Accumulation: Stylized Facts and Growth Models,World Bank Economic Review, Vol. 15, No. 2, pp. 177219.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Edison, Hali, Michael Klein, Luca Ricci, and Torsten Sløk, 2002, “Capital Account Liberalization and Economic Performance: A Review of the Literature,IMF Working Paper 02/120 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Edison, Hali, Ross Levine, Luca Ricci, and Torsten Sløk, 2002, “International Financial Integration and Economic Growth,Journal of International Money and Finance, Vol. 21 (November) pp. 74976.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Edison, Hali, and Frank Warnock, 2001, “A Simple Measure of the Intensity of Capital Controls,International Finance Discussion Paper No. 705 (Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Edison, Hali, and Frank Warnock, , 2003, “Cross-Border Listings, Capital Controls, and Equity Flows to Emerging Markets” (Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Edwards, Sebastian, 2001, “Capital Mobility and Economic Performance: Are Emerging Economies Different?NBER Working Paper No. 8076 (Cambridge, Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Eichengreen, and Barry J., 2000, “Capital Account Liberalization: What Do Cross-Country Studies Tell Us?” (unpublished; Berkeley: University of California).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Eichengreen, Barry J., , and Michael Bordo, 2002, “Crises Now and Then: What Lessons from the Last Era of Financial Globalization?NBER Working Paper No. 8716 (Cambridge, Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Eichengreen, Barry J., Donald J. Mathieson, and Bankim Chadha, 1998, Hedge Funds and Financial Market Dynamics, IMF Occasional Paper No. 166 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Eichengreen, Barry J., Michael Mussa, Giovanni Dell’ Ariccia, Enrica Detragiache, Gian Maria MilesiFerretti, and Andrew Tweedie, 1998, Capital Account Liberalization: Theoretical and Practical Aspects, IMF Occasional Paper No. 172 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Epaulard, Anne, and Aude Pommeret, 2003, “Recursive Utility, Endogenous Growth, and the Welfare Cost of Volatility,forthcoming in the Review of Economic Dynamics.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Fischer, Stanley, 1998, “Capital Account Liberalization and the Role of the IMF,in “Should the IMF Pursue Capital-Account Convertibility?” Essays in International Finance, No. 207 (Princeton, New Jersey: International Finance Section, Department of Economics, Princeton University).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Forbes, Kristin, 2000, “The Asian Flu and Russian Virus: Firm-Level Evidence on How Crises Are Transmitted Internationally,NBER Working Paper No. 7808 (Cambridge, Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Forbes, Kristin Robert Rigobón, 1999, “No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements,Journal of Finance, Vol. 57 (October), pp. 222361.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Forbes, Kristin, , 2001, “Measuring Contagion: Conceptual and Empirical Issues,in International Financial Contagion, ed. Stijn Claessens Kristin Forbes (Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Frankel, Jeffrey A., 1992, “Measuring International Capital Mobility: A Review,American Economic Review, Vol. 82 (May), pp. 197202.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Frankel, Jeffrey A., and Andrew K. Rose, 1996, “Currency Crashes in Emerging Markets: An Empirical Treatment,Journal of International Economics, Vol. 41 (November), pp. 35166.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Gavin, Michael, and Ricardo Hausmann, 1996, “Sources of Macroeconomic Volatility in Developing Economies,IADB Working Paper (Washington: Inter-American Development Bank).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Gelos, R. Gaston, and Shang-Jin Wei, 2002, “Transparency and International Investor Behavior,NBER Working Paper No. 9260 (Cambridge, Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Glick, Reuven, and Kenneth Rogoff, 1995, “Global versus Country-Specific Productivity Shocks and the Current Account,Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 35 (February), pp. 15992.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier, and Olivier Jeanne, 2003a, “On the Benefits of Capital Account Liberalization for Emerging Economies,forthcoming in the IMF Working Paper Series (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier, and Olivier Jeanne, , 2003b, “The Elusive Gains from International Financial Integration,NBER Working Paper No. 9684 (Cambridge, Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Griffin, John M., Federico Nardari, and Rene Stulz, 2002, “Daily Cross-Border Equity Flows: Pushed or Pulled?NBER Working Paper No. 9000 (Cambridge, Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Grilli, Vittorio, and Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 1995, “Economic Effects and Structural Determinants of Capital Controls,Staff Papers, International Monetary Fund, Vol. 42 (September), pp. 51751.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Grossman, Gene M., and Elhanan Helpman, 1991a, Innovation and Growth in the Global Economy (Cambridge, Massachusetts and London: MIT Press).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Grossman, Gene M., and Elhanan Helpman, , 1991b, “Trade, Knowledge Spillovers, and Growth,European Economic Review, Vol. 35 (April), pp. 51726.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hall Robert E., and Charles I. Jones, 1999, “Why Do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output Per Worker Than Others?Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 114 (February), pp. 83116.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hanson, Gordon, 2001, “Should Countries Promote Foreign Direct Investment?G-24 [Group of Twenty-Four] Discussion Paper No. 9 (Geneva: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hausmann, Ricardo, and Eduardo Fernandez-Arias, 2000, “Foreign Direct Investment: Good Cholesterol?IADB Working Paper No. 417 (Washington: Inter-American Development Bank).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Henry, Peter, 2000a, “Stock Market Liberalization, Economic Reform, and Emerging Market Equity Prices,Journal of Finance, Vol. 55 (April), pp. 52964.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Henry, Peter, , 2000b, “Do Stock Market Liberalizations Cause Investment Booms?Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 58 (October), pp. 30134.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Henry, Peter, , 2003, “Capital Account Liberalization, The Cost of Capital, and Economic Growth,American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, Vol. 93 (May), pp. 9196.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Hines, James, 1995, “Forbidden Payment: Foreign Bribery and American Business After 1977,NBER Working Paper No. 5266 (Cambridge, Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Imbs, Jean, and Roman Wacziarg, 2003, “Stages of Diversification,forthcoming in the American Economic Review.

  • International Monetary Fund (IMF), 2001, World Economic Outlook, October 2001, World Economic and Financial Surveys (Washington).

  • International Monetary Fund (IMF),, 2002, World Economic Outlook, September 2002, World Economic and Financial Surveys (Washington).

  • Ishii, Shogo, Karl Habermeier, Bernard Laurens, John Leimone, Judit Vadasz, and Jorge Ivan Canales-Kriljenko, 2002, Capital Account Liberalization and Financial Sector Stability, IMF Occasional Paper No. 211 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Johnson, Simon, Peter Boone, Alasdair Breach, and Eric Friedman, 2000, “Corporate Governance in the Asian Financial Crisis,Journal of Financial Economics, Vol. 58 (October), pp. 14186.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kalemli Ozcan, Bent E. Sørensen, and Oved Yosha, 2001, “Risk Sharing and Industrial Specialization: Regional and International Evidence,Working Paper (Houston: University of Houston).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kaminsky, Graciela, Richard Lyons, and Sergio Schmukler, 1999, “Managers, Investors, and Crisis: Mutual Fund Strategies in Emerging Markets,World Bank Working Paper No. 2399 (Washington).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kaminsky, Graciela, and Carmen M. Reinhart, 1999, “The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance of Payments Problems,American Economic Review, Vol. 89 (June), pp. 473500.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kaminsky, Graciela, and Carmen M. Reinhart, , 2000, “On Crisis, Contagion, and Confusion,Journal of International Economics, Vol. 51, No. 1, pp. 14568.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kaminsky, Graciela, and Carmen M. Reinhart, , 2001, “Bank Lending and Contagion: Evidence from the Asian Crisis,in Regional and Global Capital Flows: Macroeconomic Causes and Consequences, ed. by Takatoshi Ito and Anne Krueger (University of Chicago Press for the National Bureau of Economic Research), pp. 7399.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kaminsky, Graciela, and Carmen M. Reinhart, , 2003, “The Center and Periphery: The Globalization of Financial Turmoil,NBER Working Paper No. 9479 (Cambridge, Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kaufmann, Daniel, and Shang-Jin Wei, 1999, “Does ‘Grease Money’ Speed Up the Wheels of Commerce?NBER Working Paper No. 7093 (Cambridge, Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kemp, Murray, and Nissan Liviatan, 1973, “Production and Trade Patterns Under Uncertainty,Economic Record, Vol. 49, pp. 21527.

  • Keynes, and John M., 1919, The Economic Consequences of the Peace (London: Macmillan).

  • Kim, Jinill , and Sunghyun Henry Kim, 2003, “Spurious Welfare Reversals in International Business Cycle Models,forthcoming in the Journal of International Economics.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kim, Jinill Andrew Levin, 2003, “Patience, Persistence, and Welfare Costs of Incomplete Markets in Open Economies,forthcoming in the Journal of International Economics.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kim, Sunghyun Henry Kose M. Ayhan, and Michael Plummer, 2001, “Understanding the Asian Contagion,Asian Economic Journal, Vol. 15 (June), pp. 11138.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kim, Woochan, and Shang-Jin Wei, 2002, “Foreign Portfolio Investors Before and During a Crisis,Journal of International Economics, Vol. 56, No. 1, pp. 7796.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • King, Robert, and Ross Levine, 1993, “Finance and Growth: Schumpeter Might Be Right,Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 108 (August), pp. 71737.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Klein, Michael, 2003, “Capital Account Openness and the Varieties of Growth Experience,NBER Working Paper No. 9500 (Cambridge, Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Klein, Michael Giovanni Olivei, 2000, “Capital Account Liberalization, Financial Depth, and Economic Growth” (unpublished; Medford, Massachusetts: Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kochhar, Kalpana, Prakash Loungani, and Mark Stone, 1998, “The East Asian Crisis: Macroeconomic Developments and Policy Lessons,IMF Working Paper 98/128 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kose, M. Ayhan, 2002, “Explaining Business Cycles in Small Open Economies: How Much Do World Prices Matter?Journal of International Economics, Vol. 56 (March), pp. 299327.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kose, M. Ayhan, Christopher Otrok, and Charles Whiteman, 2003, “International Business Cycles: World, Region, and Country Specific Factors,forthcoming in the American Economic Review.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kose, M. Ayhan, and Eswar S. Prasad, 2003, “Small States in a Global Economy,forthcoming in the IMF Working Paper Series (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kose, Marcoand E. Terrones, 2003a, “Financial Integration and Macroeconomic Volatility,forthcoming in Staff Papers, International Monetary Fund.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kose, M. Ayhan, and Eswar S. Prasad, , 2003b, “How Does Globalization Affect the Synchronization of Business Cycles?American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings, Vol. 93 (May), pp. 5762,

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kose, M. Ayhan, and Raymond Riezman, 2001, “Trade Shocks and Macroeconomic Fluctuations,Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 65 (June), pp. 5180.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kouparitsas, and Michael A., 1996, “North-South Business Cycles,Working Paper No. 96-9 (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago).

  • Kraay, Aart, 1998, “In Search of the Macroeconomic Effect of Capital Account Liberalization” (unpublished; Washington: World Bank).

  • Krueger, Ann O., and Andrew Berg, 2002, “Trade, Growth, and Poverty: A Selective Survey,paper presented at the World Bank’s Annual Bank Conference on Development Economics, Washington, April 2930.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation