Abstract

Macroeconomic aggregates are traditionally derived from an interconnected network of macroeconomic accounts: the national income and product accounts, the balance of payments, government finance statistics (GFS), and the monetary accounts. The basic features of these four accounts and the links between the resource balance of each sector and its financing were reviewed in earlier chapters; this chapter focuses primarily on the links between accounts. A financial program consists of a set of quantitative, coordinated macroeconomic policy measures that are designed to achieve certain economic targets over a specified period. The links between the saving and investment of a sector and the associated financial transactions with other sectors are systematically described in a flow of funds account and provide the basis for formulating a financial program.1 Understanding these links (which encompass both accounting and behavioral relationships) is therefore fundamental to the design of a financial program.

Macroeconomic aggregates are traditionally derived from an interconnected network of macroeconomic accounts: the national income and product accounts, the balance of payments, government finance statistics (GFS), and the monetary accounts. The basic features of these four accounts and the links between the resource balance of each sector and its financing were reviewed in earlier chapters; this chapter focuses primarily on the links between accounts. A financial program consists of a set of quantitative, coordinated macroeconomic policy measures that are designed to achieve certain economic targets over a specified period. The links between the saving and investment of a sector and the associated financial transactions with other sectors are systematically described in a flow of funds account and provide the basis for formulating a financial program.1 Understanding these links (which encompass both accounting and behavioral relationships) is therefore fundamental to the design of a financial program.

The four main macroeconomic sectors (private, government, foreign, and banking) all engage in income and expenditure transactions. (By convention, the banking sector’s real transactions are assumed to be zero.) A sector’s income-expenditure transactions (also referred to as real or nonfinancial transactions) generate changes in financial assets or liabilities. These changes are, in turn, recorded as the sector’s financial transactions. Thus, for each sector, the real or nonfinancial transactions (such as imports and exports) and the financial transactions (such as borrowing from abroad or drawing down the country’s international reserves) embrace the sector’s entire economic relations with other sectors.

In the chapters on the real sector, the fiscal sector, the monetary sector, and the external sector, the identity between the resource balance of each sector and the financing of the resource gap (or, alternatively, the disposal of the resource surplus of the sector) was established. The interrelations between the resource gap of one sector with those of other sectors were also examined. For example, for the private or nongovernment sector, equation 2.13 in Chapter 2 illustrates the equality between the resource gap and its financing, and equation 2.8 shows the relationship between the economywide resource gap and the external current account balance.2 In this chapter, the interrelationships among economic sectors are examined in a more systematic manner. The discussion of these interrelationships sets the stage for the development of the flow of funds accounts, which provide a record of the real (nonfinancial) and financial transactions among the main macroeconomic sectors in a consistent and comprehensive framework.

Basic Interrelationship Between the Saving-Investment Balance and the External Current Account

Equation 9 in Box 2.2 of Chapter 2 sets out the identity between the economywide resource gap and the current account balance. Thus,
Economywidesavinginvestmentgap(SI)=Currentaccountbalance(CAB)=Useofforeignsavings.(6.1)

The current account balance of the balance of payments can be viewed in a variety of alternative ways, as shown in Chart 6.1. As a balance of items on the external current account, it equals the sum of all items in the balance of payments that finance the current account balance. In the broader macroeconomic sense, it reflects the gap between the economy’s disposable income and absorption and between saving and investment. These latter relationships highlight the importance of the current account balance as a central unifying concept linking the domestic economy with the rest of the world.

Chart 6.1.
Chart 6.1.

Basic Macroeconomic Linkages

Relations Between Sectoral Balances and the Current Account

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indicates the absolute value of the difference shown in parentheses.

Although this identity is central to macroeconomic analysis, it does not make explicit the respective roles of the government and private (or nongovernment) sectors. The link between the fiscal aggregates and the balance of payments can easily be derived from the basic saving-investment gap for the economy as a whole by decomposing saving (S) and investment (I) aggregates into their private and government sector components.

Thus, equation 6.1 can be rewritten as:
(Sp+Sg)(Ip+Ig)=CAB(6.2)

where the subscripts p and g refer to the private and government sector, respectively.

This relationship can also be rearranged as
(SpIp)+(SgIg)=CAB(6.3)
In this form, the equation shows that
Privatesectorsavinginvestmentgap+Governmentsectorsavinginvestmentgap=Currentaccountbalance.

The significance of this identity cannot be overemphasized. It suggests that there are important relationships among (i) the saving-investment gap of the private sector, (ii) the overall fiscal position of the government sector, and (iii) the current account of the balance of payments. It focuses on the separate roles that the private and public sectors play in a current account imbalance. Complemented by behavioral relationships about the private and government sectors, the identity can be extremely useful in macroeconomic analysis.

Box 6.1 shows three different combinations of private and public sectoral balances and the resulting current account balances. Situation 1 is typical of many countries undertaking adjustment programs: a fiscal deficit is the main source of the current account deficit. This case involves the socalled “twin deficits”; accordingly, reducing the current account deficit will require fiscal adjustment. In many economies, however, a large fiscal deficit is more than offset by an excess of private saving over investment. In Italy, for example, high private saving in recent years has financed a high government deficit, with only a modest current account deficit.

In situation 2, the current account deficit represents both a government deficit and a private sector saving shortfall in relation to private investment.

Situation 3 indicates that a current account deficit coexists with a fiscal surplus and a private saving shortfall. If the current account deficit reflects a private investment boom financed by capital inflow, the policy implications are different from what they would be if the current account deficit reflects a private consumption boom that mirrors a private saving shortfall. The accounting identity provides only a useful conceptual framework for analyzing different behavioral and policy outcomes and deriving appropriate policy implications.

Flow of Funds Accounts

Flow of Funds Framework: The Basics3

The interrelations between the various sectors (private, government, monetary, and external) are brought together in this section to set the stage for a full exploration of all such interrelations in the framework of a flow of funds matrix. First, however, it is important to understand the rationale for and uses of a flow of funds matrix. As an analytical tool, the matrix is important for several reasons:

  • It summarizes the interrelationships among the different sectors (including the foreign or rest of the world sector) in a systematic and coherent way.

  • It helps to bring out inconsistencies in and thereby ensure the consistency of the available data and facilitates macroeconomic analysis.

  • It shows which sector of the economy is generating an overall surplus and which is generating a deficit, helps identify the origins and causes of the surpluses and deficits, and sheds light on how the surpluses are utilized and the deficits financed in each sector.

  • It is helpful in policy simulations and in analyzing the ramifications of policy options.

At the most aggregative level, an open economy consists of two sectors: the domestic economy and the rest of the world. As discussed for the four sectors covered in this volume, two basic types of transactions can be distinguished for each of these sectors: nonfinancial and financial. The system is “closed” in the sense that the country’s exports (χ) are the rest of the world’s imports (−χ), and hence the sum of transactions across sectors must be zero (+ χ − χ = 0). Similarly, it is possible to derive each sector’s resource or saving-investment gap and to trace the gap’s financing. Since the financial transactions must cover the gap ex post, the resource gap for each sector will always equal the sum of all financial transactions for the sector. The flow of funds account or table simply combines the nonfinancial transactions, the resource gap, and the financial transactions for each sector in a matrix in which the sectors are in columns and the transactions are in rows. An illustrative flow of funds is shown in Box 6.2 for a small open economy; exports (χ) = 100, imports (M) = 300, and borrowing from abroad = 200.

This example illustrates a number of important features embedded in the flow of funds framework.

  • As noted, the system is closed, so that the sum across sectors for each transaction (that is, the sum of each row) is identically equal to zero, as is the sum of the resource gaps. The current account of the rest of the world is necessarily the mirror image of the country’s current account, since the world as a whole is a closed economy. Specifically, the country can run a current account deficit (−200) if, and only if, the rest of the world is running a surplus of an equal amount (+200).4

  • For each sector, the sum of real and financial transactions (excluding the resource gap row, which is a subtotal and not a transaction in itself) is also zero. This relationship reflects the fact that ex post, each sector’s nonfinancial deficit (surplus) is fully covered (utilized).

  • Transactions in the “rest of the world” sector are entered from the point of view of the rest of the world, not from the point of view of the country. Thus, under exports, the rest of the world sector shows −100, reflecting the sector’s imports.

  • By convention, the signs in the table are as follows: a transaction that increases assets or decreases liabilities of a sector takes a negative sign, and a transaction that decreases assets and increases liabilities takes a positive sign. Thus, the country’s foreign borrowing (an increase in foreign financial liabilities) is entered as a +200. Note that for the “rest of the world” sector, net lending (an increase in financial assets) of−200 is recorded (Box 6.3).

  • The flow of funds table is, by design, a zero-sum matrix in which each column and each row sums to zero. Thus, the flow of funds system is a quadruple-entry system. Each transaction is recorded with a double entry—that is, as a real transaction, with a counter entry as a financial transaction in each of the two sectors involved.

The above dichotomy, which divides the world into the domestic economy and the rest of the world, can be further refined by disaggregating the domestic economy into three key sectors (the government, the private sector, and the banking sector). However, before analyzing this expanded flow of funds table, it is important to summarize the accounting conventions guiding the construction of a flow of funds table.

The Recording Conventions

The following conventions are used in the flow of funds accounts.

  • Coverage. The flow of funds accounts record transactions between two sectors. Transactions taking place within a given sector are not shown, since they disappear in the consolidation of the sector. Moreover, some transactions (such as changes in arrears, valuation changes, and other items net) are grouped together for each sector under a balancing item (net errors and omissions).

  • Source. Whenever data for the same transaction differ (for example, changes in net foreign assets in the balance of payments and in the monetary survey) a single source must be selected. The primary sources used for establishing a flow of funds account are the national income and product accounts and the macroeconomic accounts based on the three linked systems, namely the government finance statistics (GFS), balance of payments statistics (BOPS), and money and banking statistics (MBS).

  • Banking system. For the purpose of the flow of funds account, this sector is assumed not to have any nonfinancial transactions—that is, its saving-investment gap is identically equal to zero.

  • External sector. This sector is viewed from the point of view of the rest of the world. Therefore, a current account deficit (+CAB) for the country is a current account surplus (—CAB) for the rest of the world and should be entered as such.

Illustrative Flow of Funds of a Simple Open Economy

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Flow of Funds Framework: Schematic Accounts

To complete the detailed flow of funds, it is important to review, for each sector that constitutes a column in the flow of funds table, the methods used to derive and finance nonfinancial balances. Box 6.4 shows the necessary accounting identities.

The flow of funds account (or table) has as its columns the economic sectors and as its rows the various transactions. It has three major blocks: nonfinancial transactions, saving-investment balances, and financial transactions. The first two blocks are obtained simply by entering the nonfinancial transactions (as summarized in Box 6.3) for each sector and summing them to obtain nonfinancial balances. The third block of the table is obtained by enumerating all the financing transactions for each sector. It should be noted that for all sectors, “other items, net” has been added as a balancing item in order to capture (i) those items in the financing of nonfinancial balances that have not been explicitly entered, and (ii) any errors arising from data that are inconsistent across sectors.

A schematic flow of funds account is shown in Table 6.1. The columns represent the broad economic sectors and the rows transactions among the sectors; the first column is simply the aggregation of all the domestic sectors. The upper part of the table covers transactions in goods, services, income, and transfers, the lower part financial transactions such as borrowing or lending.

Table 6.1.

Schematic Flow of Funds Account

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Source: Based on Box 6.4.

Exports, imports, net factor income, and net transfers can also, in principle, be broken down into the general government and private sectors. However, in practice, this breakdown is hard to obtain and, in any case, little useful purpose is served by such a breakdown here, where the focus is on nonfinancial balances and their financing.

Balancing item calculated as the difference between nonfinancial balances and total identified financing. Note also that −ΔOINd is the sum of the changes in 01N in all sectors in the domestic economy and must be offset by ΔOINf in a closed system.

Flow of Funds Analysis5

The flow of funds account provides a comprehensive framework for describing both the influence of economic activity on the financial system and the role of various financial markets in the generation of income, saving, and expenditure. The identities reflected in a flow of funds account are not, however, sufficient to derive a full picture of a country’s financial system. Accounting identities must be complemented by the sectors’ behavioral relationships in terms of production, expenditures, portfolio choices, and external trade. But through the interrelationships it presents, a flow of funds account facilitates the analysis of the interactions between the nonfinancial and financial spheres. Such accounts can be used to trace the impact of fiscal and monetary policy on financial markets, for instance. Flow of funds analysis may be based on past developments or projections; in either case, it is useful to have data covering a period of several years.

Sign Conventions in the Flow of Funds Account

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This assignment of signs for financial transactions can be rationalized as follows: an acquisition of an asset implies the use or disposal of purchasing power, while incurring liability implies acquiring purchasing power.

  • A deficit for the external sector, which represents the rest of the world, implies an external surplus for the domestic sector.

  • The nonfinancial balance of the banking sector is assumed to be zero; the nonfinancial transactions of this sector are implicitly included in the private sector.

The schematic flow of funds table (Table 6.1) follows.

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It is also instructive to look at the flow of funds table from the perspective of the rows—that is, in terms of the transactions. As noted, for each column (sector), the sum for all transactions (financial and nonfinancial) is also zero. It is important to keep in mind two features of this table that involve the rows. First, the row summarizing the nonfinancial balances is a subtotal of all the nonfinancial transactions and therefore should not be counted twice during the process of verifying that the sum of a sector’s transactions is zero. Second, “net errors and omissions” is included to ensure consistency between and within sectors. These are balancing items, some of which we have previously encountered—for example, “errors and omissions” in the balance of payments and “other items, net” in the monetary survey.

  • Nonfinancial balances. For the overall economy, the income-expenditure balance (S − I) is also called the “resource gap” because it indicates that if the country does not have sufficient resources to cover its expenditures, a deficit on the external current account is generated. If income exceeds expenditures, a surplus is generated.

  • Sectoral balances. These allow analysts to identify domestic sectors that are facing financing difficulties. Each sector generates (through nonfinancial transactions) either a negative balance (deficit) or a positive balance (surplus). A negative balance may stem from a decline in saving, an increase in investment, or a combination of the two.

  • Financing of nonfinancial balances. The flow of funds account also provides an overall description of the intersectoral financial flows that are intermediated through the country’s financial system, which plays the crucial role of attracting and allocating saving. For the whole economy, the saving-investment balance is matched by the current account balance, which is financed through capital and financial account transactions, changes in net foreign assets, or exceptional financing (such as the accumulation of external arrears). The saving-investment balance of a given sector is financed by the other domestic sectors and the rest of the world.

Main Economic Sectors: Nonfinancial Balances and Their Financing

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As noted above, the usefulness of a flow of funds system lies in the fact that the system describes the financing of various economic sectors and the broad categories of market instruments used in financial transactions. By explicitly describing the main macroeconomic identities, the flow of funds helps analysts to formulate behavioral hypotheses and to design a consistent check of financial programs. The system’s interlocking nature provides a basis for analyzing the origins of an imbalance in one economic sector and the potential repercussions for other sectors. Examples illustrating these analytical uses of the flow of funds are given below.

External Imbalance

We have seen that for a given period, the sum of savings/investment balances of the government and the nongovernment sectors is equal to the current account balance. This relation gives us important insights into the possible origins of balance of payments problems. An increase in the external current account deficit can be traced to a rise in the saving-investment deficit (or a reduction in the surplus) of either the private or the government sectors. Policy prescriptions differ according to which sector gives rise to the imbalance and whether the increased deficit (or reduced surplus) has been generated by a fall in saving, or a rise in investment, or both. Analysts must investigate the causes of these changes, using economic analysis and policy judgment to determine whether a particular change needs to be reversed and, if so, how it can best be done. Further, the flow of funds table helps to trace the financing of an increased current account deficit, allowing analysts to measure any change in the financing position of the economic sectors. Such financing can come from a rise in net foreign borrowing by either the government or the private sector, an increase in direct foreign investment, or a change in net foreign assets (possibly a drawdown in official reserves).

Fiscal Imbalance

If government expenditures are increased, they must be financed by a rise in taxes; otherwise, the fiscal deficit increases. If taxes are increased to finance increased spending, the government’s nonfinancial balance does not change, but the private sector either reduces its savings, cuts its spending, or both. If the private sector cuts its spending, its financial balances remain unchanged, since the nonfinancial balance is unaffected. But if the private sector reduces its savings, its nonfinancial balance worsens, requiring the sector to either increase borrowing from the banking system, run down its cash balances, or borrow money abroad. Maintaining private spending in the face of reduced disposable income causes a deterioration of the country’s external current account balance. If, however, extra government expenditure is financed with increased credit from the central bank, the increased deficit leads to a rise in nominal GDP, which in turn results in (i) higher government revenues that partially offset the increase in spending, and (ii) with a marginal propensity to spend less than unity, improves the private sector’s nonfinancial balance. As the counterpart of the increase in domestic credit, the private sector increases its holding of money balances (the form in which it holds extra savings). If the extra government spending induces additional private sector spending on domestic as well as imported goods and services, the external current account balance worsens, affecting other economic sectors (see above). Analysts can examine a variety of such effects, depending on the behavioral assumptions about the economic sectors that are used to supplement the flow of funds accounting.

Exercises

  • Tables 6.2 through 6.6 present the basic macroeconomic accounts for Poland. On the basis of these tables, the nonfinancial transactions balances and the flow of funds for Poland have been derived for 1993 (Table 6.6). Using Table 6.6 as a model, prepare the flow of funds for 1994.

  • On the basis of Table 6.6, what can be said about the significant differences in economic developments in Poland between 1993 and 1994? Compare the 1993 and 1994 nonfinancial domestic balances (you may wish to compute ratios relative to GDP). How do they relate to the external sector nonfinancial balance? What factors may have influenced the level of domestic investment and gross national saving during 1993–1994?

  • Suppose that government capital outlays in 1994 were higher by 1 trillion zlotys. How would Table 6.6 change? In answering this question, explore alternative means of financing the increase in government spending (for example, tax increases, reductions in other expenditures, bank borrowing, nonbank borrowing, and foreign financing). Assume that higher government spending also raises output by 1 trillion zlotys—that is, there are no multiplier effects.

  • Assume that the nongovernment saving-investment balance in 1994 remains unchanged from its 1993 level, but that the general government deficit is higher than in 1993. What can you conclude about the current account of the balance of payments in 1994? Suppose that the current account of the balance of payments improves in 1994. Under the above scenario (an unchanged private sector saving-investment balance), what can you conclude about Poland’s fiscal position in 1994 compared with the previous year?

Table 6.2.

Components of Aggregate Demand

(In trillions of zlotys; at current market prices)

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Source: Based on Table 2.3.
Table 6.3.

General Government Operations1

(In trillions of zlotys)

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Source: Table 3.1.

Comprising the state budget, extrabudgetary funds, and local governments.

1993 data include revenues from the VAT that replaced turnover taxes in July 1993.

interest obligations on external debt are recorded on a cash basis, interest obligations on domestic debt are recorded on an accrual basis.

Assume net repayment remains unchanged in U.S. dollar terms from previous year.

Excludes external interest payments arrears, which are recorded on a cash basis above the line.

Unallocated financing.

Table 6.4.

Balance of Payments in Convertible Currencies1

(In billions of zlotys; unless otherwise indicated)

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Source: Based on Table 4.3.

Converted from Table 4.3.

Includes credit extended, cost of debt reduction, short-term capital, valuation changes, and errors and omissions.

Includes both official and commercial banks’ net international reserves.

On an accrual basis, including unrecorded trade and statistical discrepancy.

Table 6.5.

Monetary Survey

(In trillions of zlotys; end of period)

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Source: Based on Table 5.1.

To simplify the analysis, all credits to the government sector are assumed to be denominated in zlotys.

Table 6.6.

Flow of Funds

(In trillions of zlotys)

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Source: IMF Institute staff calculations based on Tables 6.1-6.6. The figures have been rounded.

Government gross disposable income is derived from Table 6.1 and proxied as follows: GDN = total revenue - (interest payments + subsidies + income transfers).

Government consumption (CG) is derived from Table 6.2 and proxied as follows: CG = (wages and salaries + purchases of goods and services + other current expenditures). Discrepancies with government consumption as shown in Table 6.3 are minimal and may be partially explained by differences in timing (i.e., cash basis in Table 6.3 as against transaction basis in Table 6.2).

As shown in Table 6.2. Excluding net lending.

As shown in Table 6.3. Recorded here as a nonfinancial item (GFS convention) as opposed to a financing item (SNA convention) in order to match the total of government nonfinancial operations with the general government overall balance.

As shown in Table 6.2. Including adjustment on trade data (as shown in Table 6.4) to reflect unrecorded trade and recording of trade on a transaction basis. It should be noted that the detailed BOP (Table 6.4) is on a cash basis and refers only to convertible currencies.

As shown in Table 6.4.

includes only medium- and long-term net capital as shown in Table 6.4. Government net borrowing as shown in Table 6.3.

As shown in Table 6.4. Excluding valuation adjustment stemming from the impact of changes in the exchange rate.

As shown in Table 6.5.

As shown in Table 6.3.

Calculated residually.