Sub-Saharan Africa: Simulated Impacts of Natural DisasterSource: IMF staff calculations.Note: Simulations are produced with the model outlined in Marto, Papageorgiou, and Klyuev (2018). The model is matched with an economy that has sub-Saharan African averages for macroeconomic indicators. Public investment is assumed to be scaled up by 1 percent of GDP annually in years 1–5 in standard infrastructure (first alternative scenario) and resilient infrastructure (second alternative scenario). In the third alternative scenario, grants cover 80 percent of investment in resilient infrastructure. A natural disaster occurs in year 6 and is calibrated to yield a fall in output of 1 percent under the first scenario. Consumption inequality is (i) the percent change of consumption of households with access to finance from the baseline, minus (ii) the percent change of consumption of financially constrained households from the baseline.