CESEE: Regional Risk Assessment Matrix
Source: IMF staff assessment.Notes: The relative likelihood of risks reflects the IMF staff’s subjective assessment of the risks surrounding the baseline. The relative impact is based on country-specific assessments weighted by purchasing-power-parity GDP. “Low” indicates a probability below 10 percent, “Medium” indicates a probability of 10 to 30 percent, and “High” indicates a probability of 30 to 50 percent.
|Source of Risks||Likelihood||Impact|
|Lower-than-expected growth in advanced economies/the euro area||High||Medium|
|Further growth deceleration/decline in major EMs (BRICs)||High||Medium|
|Surge in financial volatility/a tightening in financial conditions||High||Medium|
|Intensification of geopolitical tensions/refugee crisis in Europe||Medium||Medium-High|