Abstract

Growth in the Asia-Pacific region shows signs of improving as extreme risks emanating from advanced economies have receded and domestic demand remains resilient, supported by relatively easy financial conditions and robust labor markets. A small and gradual pick-up in growth to over 5¾ percent is projected in the course of 2013. Risks to the outlook from within the region, such as rising financial imbalances and asset prices in some economies, are coming clearer into focus. Although Asia’s banking and corporate sectors have solid buffers, monetary policymakers should stand ready to respond early and decisively to shifting risks, and macroprudential measures will also have a role to play. In many Asian economies, some fiscal consolidation could also rebuild the space needed to respond to future shocks and preempt potential overheating pressures from capital inflows. In particular, there is a growing need to make tax and spending policies more efficient. To sustain high growth rates and alleviate the “middle-income trap” across Emerging Asia, the policy agenda will vary by jurisdiction but will also often include strengthening infrastructure investment and reforming goods and labor markets.

References

  • Abeysekera, A., and I. Dissanayake, 2012, “Revenue Mobilization Measures and Current Tax Issues, Sri Lanka,” presented at Third IMF-Japan High-Level Tax Conference for Asia and Pacific Countries, January 31–February 3, 2012.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Agustina, C., J. Arze del Granado, T. Bulman, W. Fengler, and M. Ikhsan, 2008, “Black Hole or Black Gold? The Impact of Oil and Gas Prices on Indonesia’s Public Finances,” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, No. 4718.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Aiyar, S., R. Duval, D. Puy, Y. Wu, and L. Zhang, 2013, “Growth Slowdowns and the Middle-Income Trap,” IMF Working Paper No. 13/71 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Aldaba, R., 2006, “FDI Investment Incentive System and FDI Inflows: The Philippine Experience,” Discussion Paper Series No. 2006–20 (Makati City: Philippine Institute for Development Studies).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Alesina, A., F. Campante, and G. Tabellini, 2008, “Why Is Fiscal Policy Often Procyclical?Journal of the European Economic Association, Vol. 6, No. 5 (September), pp. 100636.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Arnold, J., B. Brys, C. Heady, Å. Johansson, C. Schwellnus, and L. Vartia, 2011, “Tax Policy for Economic Recovery and Growth,” Economic Journal, Vol. 121, pp. F59F80.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Arnold, J., 2012, “Improving the Tax System in Indonesia,” OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 998 (Paris: OECD Publishing).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Arze del Granado, J., D. Coady, and R. Gillingham, 2012, “The Unequal Benefits of Fuel Subsidies: A Review of Evidence for Developing Countries,” World Development, Vol. 40, No. 11, pp. 223448.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Asia Development Bank, 2012, “Institutional Arrangements for Tax Administration in Asia and the Pacific,” The Governance Brief, Issue 19. http://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/pub/2012/governance-brief-tax-administration-asia.pdf.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Blanchard, O., and R. Perotti, 2002, “An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 117, No. 4, pp. 132968.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Botman, D., A. Klemm, and R. Baqir, 2008, “Investment Incentives and Effective Tax Rates in the Philippines: A Comparison with Neighboring Countries,” IMF Working Paper 08/207 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Budina, N., and A. Tuladhar, 2010, “Post-Crisis Fiscal Policy Priorities for the ASEAN-5,” IMF Working Paper No. 10/252 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Chinoy, S., 2013, “Show Me the Money,” Financial Express, January 25. http://www.financialexpress.com/news/column-show-me-the-money-/1064543/3.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Commission on Growth and Development, 2008, “The Growth Report: Strategies for Sustained Growth and Inclusive Development” (Washington: World Bank).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Craig, R.S., C. Hua, P. Ng, and R. Yuen, forthcoming, “Chinese Capital Account Liberalization and the Internationalization of the Renminbi,” IMF Working Paper (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Cubero, R., S. Peiris, P. Rungcharoenkitkul, and D. Seneviratne, forthcoming, “Growing Strong Together: An Analysis of ASEAN Linkages,” IMF Working Paper (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ducanes, G., M. Cagas, D. Qin, P. Quising, and M. Abdur Razzaque, 2006, “Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policies: Empirical Evidence from Bangladesh, China, Indonesia, and the Philippines,” Economics and Research Department Working Paper No. 85 (Manila: Asian Development Bank).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ebrill, L., M. Keen, J-P. Bodin, and V. Summers, 2001, The Modern VAT (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

  • Eichengreen, B., D. Park, and K. Shin, 2012, “When Fast-Growing Economies Slow Down: International Evidence and Implications for China,” Asian Economic Papers, Vol. 11, No. 1, pp. 4287.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Eichengreen, B., D. Park, and K. Shin, 2013, “Growth Slowdowns Redux: New Evidence on the Middle-Income Trap,” NBER Working Paper No. 18673, January (Cambridge, Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Financial Stability Board, 2012, “Identifying the Effects of Regulatory Reforms on Emerging Market and Developing Economies: A Review of Potential Unintended Consequences,” Report to the G-20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors (June).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Fiszbein, A., and N. Schady, 2009, Conditional Cash Transfers: Reducing Present and Future Poverty (Washington: World Bank). http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTCCT/Resources/5757608-1234228266004/PRR-CCT_web_noembargo.pdf.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Frankel, J.A., C.A. Vegh, and G. Vuletin, 2011, “On Graduation from Fiscal Procyclicality,” NBER Working Paper No. 17619 (Cambridge, Massachusetts: National Bureau for Economic Research).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Guimarães, R., and P. Rungcharoenkitkul (forthcoming), “Fiscal Policy in Asia: Is It Countercyclical? Is It Effective?IMF Working Paper (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Herd, R., S. Hill, and V. Koen, 2011, “Fiscal Prospects and Reforms in India,” OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 911 (Paris: OECD Publishing).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Heston, A., R. Summers, and B. Alen, 2012, “Penn World Table Version 7.1,” Center for International Comparisons of Production, Income and Prices at the University of Pennsylvania (November).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ilzetzki, E., E. Mendoza, and C. Végh, 2011, “How Big (Small?) Are Fiscal Multipliers?IMF Working Paper 11/52 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • International Monetary Fund, 2004, “Public Investment and Fiscal Policy,” Paper prepared by the IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department and Policy Development and Review Department in consultation with other departments and in cooperation with the World Bank and the Inter-American Development Bank. http://www.imf.org/external/np/fad/2004/pifp/eng/.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • International Monetary Fund, 2009, Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific (Washington, May).

  • International Monetary Fund, 2011a, “Revenue Mobilization in Developing Countries,” Policy Paper (March). http://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2011/030811.pdf.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • International Monetary Fund, 2011b, Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific (Washington, April).

  • International Monetary Fund, 2011c, “Japan: Spillover Report for the 2011 Article IV Consultation,” Country Report No. 11–183 (Washington, July).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • International Monetary Fund, 2011d, Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific (Washington, October).

  • International Monetary Fund, 2012a, “Philippines: Technical Assistance Report on Road Map for a Pro-Growth and Equitable Tax System,” IMF Country Report No. 12/60 (Washington, March).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • International Monetary Fund, 2012b, Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific (Washington, April).

  • International Monetary Fund, 2012c, “2012 Spillover Report,” IMF Policy Paper (Washington, July).

  • International Monetary Fund, 2012d, “Pilot External Sector Report” (Washington, July).

  • International Monetary Fund, 2013a, “Energy Subsidy Reform: Lessons and Implications,” IMF Policy Paper (Washington).

  • International Monetary Fund, 2013b, “Asia and Pacific Small States—Raising Potential Growth and Enhancing Resilience to Shocks,” Policy Paper (Washington, February). http://www.imf.org/external/[pp/longres.aspx?id=4746.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • International Monetary Fund, 2013c, Fiscal Monitor (Washington, April).

  • Jha, S., S. Mallick, D. Park, and P. Quising, 2010, “Effectiveness of Countercyclical Fiscal Policy: Time-Series Evidence from Developing Asia,” ADB Economics Working Paper Series, No. 211 (Manila: Asian Development Bank).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Jha, S., and B. Ramaswami, 2010, “How Can Food Subsidies Work Better? Answers from India and the Philippines,” ADB Economics Working Paper Series, No. 221 (Manila: Asian Development Bank).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Johansson, Å., C. Heady, J. Arnold, B. Brys, and L. Vartia, 2008, “Tax and Economic Growth,” OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 620 (Paris: OECD Publishing).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kaminsky, G., C. Reinhart, and C. Végh, 2005, “When It Rains, It Pours: Pro-Cyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies,” NBER Macroeconomics Annual Report 2004, Vol. 19, pp. 1182.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Lane, P., and A. Tornell, 1999, “The Voracity Effect,” American Economic Review, Vol. 89, No. 1 (March), pp. 2246.

  • Leamer, E.E., 1978, Specification Search: Ad Hoc Inference with Nonexperimental Data (New York: Wiley).

  • Lim, C., F. Columba, A. Costa, P. Kongsamut, A. Otani, M. Sayid, T. Wezel, and X. Wu, 2011, “Macroprudential Policy: What Instruments and How Are They Used? Lessons from Country Experiences,” IMF Working Paper No. 238 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Magnus, J.R., O. Powell, and P. Prüfer, 2010, “A Comparison of Two Model-Averaging Techniques with an Application to Growth Empirics,” Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 154, pp. 13953.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Manasan, R.G., 2011, “Assessment of the Impact of the Fiscal Stimulus, Fiscal Risk and Fiscal Transparency: The Philippines,” Chapter 6 in Assessment on the Impact of Stimulus, Fiscal Transparency and Fiscal Risk, ed. by T. Ito and F. Parulian, ERIA Research Project Report, No. 2010–1 (Jakarta: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia). http://www.eria.org/publications/research_project_reports/assessment-on-the-impact-of-stimulus-fiscal-transparency-and-fiscal-risk.html.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Mohommad, A., R. Anand, D. Coady, V. Thakoor, and J.P. Walsh, forthcoming, “The Fiscal and Welfare Impacts of Reforming Fuel Subsidies in India,” IMF Working Paper (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), 2012, “Agricultural Policy Monitoring and Evaluation.”

  • Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), 2012, Society at a Glance: Asia/Pacific 2011 (Paris: OECD Publishing). http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264106154-en.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • OECD and World Health Organization (WHO), 2012, Health at a Glance: Asia/Pacific 2012, Introduction (Paris: OECD Publishing). http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264183902-en.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Reside, R.E., 2006, “Towards Rational Fiscal Incentives (Good Investments or Wasted Gifts?),” Economic Policy Reform Advocacy Fiscal Sector Report, No. 1, University of Philippines School of Economics.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Reside, R.E., 2007, “Can Fiscal Incentives Stimulate Regional Investment in the Philippines? (An Update of Empirical Results),” UPSE Discussion Paper No. 0705 (Quezon City: University of the Philippines School of Economics). http://www.econ.upd.edu.ph/dp/index.php/dp/article/view/67/59.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Sala-i-Martin, X., G. Doppelhoffer, and R. Miller, 2004, “Determinants of Long-Run Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach,” American Economic Review, Vol. 94, No. 4 (September), pp. 81335.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Schneider, F., A. Buehn, and C. Montenegro, 2010, “Shadow Economies All over the World: New Estimates for 162 Countries,” Policy Research Working Paper 5356 (Washington: World Bank).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Seneviratne, D., and Y. Sun, 2013, “Infrastructure and Income Distribution in ASEAN5: What Are the Links?IMF Working Paper No. 13/41 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Sheridan, N., P. Tumbarello, and Y. Wu, 2012, “Global and Regional Spillovers to Pacific Island Countries,” IMF Working Paper No. 12/154 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Silvani, C., J. Brondolo, E. LeBorgne, and Frank Bosch, 2008, “Tax Administration Reform and Fiscal Adjustment: The Case of Indonesia (2001–07),” IMF Working Paper No. 08/129 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Spilimbergo, A., S.A. Symansky, and M. Schindler, 2009, “Fiscal Multipliers,” IMF Staff Position Note No. 2009/11 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Tang, H.C., P. Liu, and E.C. Cheung, 2010, “Changing Impact of Fiscal Policy on Selected ASEAN Countries,” ADB Working Paper No. 70 (December), ADB Economics Working Paper Series No. 211 (Manila: Asian Development Bank).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Tapsoba, S., forthcoming, “Options and Strategies for Fiscal Consolidation in India,” IMF Working Paper (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Tornell, A., and P. Lane, 1999, “The Voracity Effect,” American Economic Review, Vol. 89, No.1, pp. 2248.

  • Tumbarello, P., E. Cabezon, and Y. Wu, forthcoming, “Are the Asia and Pacific Small States Different from Other Small States?IMF Working Paper (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Usui, N., 2011a, Tax Reform Toward Consolidation—Policy Options for the Government of the Philippines (Manila: Asian Development Bank).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Usui, N., 2011b, Searching for Effective Poverty Interventions Conditional Cash Transfer in the Philippines (Manila: Asian Development Bank).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • World Bank, 2012a, “Creating Fiscal Space through Revenue Mobilization,” South Asia Economic Focus (Washington, June). http://hdl.handle.net/10986/11925.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • World Bank, 2012b, Targeting Poor and Vulnerable Households in Indonesia (Washington). http://www.ausaid.gov.au/countries/eastasia/indonesia/Documents/prsp-report-targeting-poor-ipm.pdf.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • World Bank, 2012c, World Development Indicators (Washington).

  • Yang, Y., M. Davies, S. Wang, J. Dunn, and Y. Wu, 2011, “Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanisms in Pacific Island Countries,” IMF Working Paper No. 11/96 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
Shifting Risks, New Foundations for Growth
  • Abeysekera, A., and I. Dissanayake, 2012, “Revenue Mobilization Measures and Current Tax Issues, Sri Lanka,” presented at Third IMF-Japan High-Level Tax Conference for Asia and Pacific Countries, January 31–February 3, 2012.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Agustina, C., J. Arze del Granado, T. Bulman, W. Fengler, and M. Ikhsan, 2008, “Black Hole or Black Gold? The Impact of Oil and Gas Prices on Indonesia’s Public Finances,” World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, No. 4718.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Aiyar, S., R. Duval, D. Puy, Y. Wu, and L. Zhang, 2013, “Growth Slowdowns and the Middle-Income Trap,” IMF Working Paper No. 13/71 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Aldaba, R., 2006, “FDI Investment Incentive System and FDI Inflows: The Philippine Experience,” Discussion Paper Series No. 2006–20 (Makati City: Philippine Institute for Development Studies).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Alesina, A., F. Campante, and G. Tabellini, 2008, “Why Is Fiscal Policy Often Procyclical?Journal of the European Economic Association, Vol. 6, No. 5 (September), pp. 100636.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Arnold, J., B. Brys, C. Heady, Å. Johansson, C. Schwellnus, and L. Vartia, 2011, “Tax Policy for Economic Recovery and Growth,” Economic Journal, Vol. 121, pp. F59F80.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Arnold, J., 2012, “Improving the Tax System in Indonesia,” OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 998 (Paris: OECD Publishing).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Arze del Granado, J., D. Coady, and R. Gillingham, 2012, “The Unequal Benefits of Fuel Subsidies: A Review of Evidence for Developing Countries,” World Development, Vol. 40, No. 11, pp. 223448.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Asia Development Bank, 2012, “Institutional Arrangements for Tax Administration in Asia and the Pacific,” The Governance Brief, Issue 19. http://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/pub/2012/governance-brief-tax-administration-asia.pdf.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Blanchard, O., and R. Perotti, 2002, “An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 117, No. 4, pp. 132968.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Botman, D., A. Klemm, and R. Baqir, 2008, “Investment Incentives and Effective Tax Rates in the Philippines: A Comparison with Neighboring Countries,” IMF Working Paper 08/207 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Budina, N., and A. Tuladhar, 2010, “Post-Crisis Fiscal Policy Priorities for the ASEAN-5,” IMF Working Paper No. 10/252 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Chinoy, S., 2013, “Show Me the Money,” Financial Express, January 25. http://www.financialexpress.com/news/column-show-me-the-money-/1064543/3.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Commission on Growth and Development, 2008, “The Growth Report: Strategies for Sustained Growth and Inclusive Development” (Washington: World Bank).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Craig, R.S., C. Hua, P. Ng, and R. Yuen, forthcoming, “Chinese Capital Account Liberalization and the Internationalization of the Renminbi,” IMF Working Paper (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Cubero, R., S. Peiris, P. Rungcharoenkitkul, and D. Seneviratne, forthcoming, “Growing Strong Together: An Analysis of ASEAN Linkages,” IMF Working Paper (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ducanes, G., M. Cagas, D. Qin, P. Quising, and M. Abdur Razzaque, 2006, “Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policies: Empirical Evidence from Bangladesh, China, Indonesia, and the Philippines,” Economics and Research Department Working Paper No. 85 (Manila: Asian Development Bank).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ebrill, L., M. Keen, J-P. Bodin, and V. Summers, 2001, The Modern VAT (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

  • Eichengreen, B., D. Park, and K. Shin, 2012, “When Fast-Growing Economies Slow Down: International Evidence and Implications for China,” Asian Economic Papers, Vol. 11, No. 1, pp. 4287.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Eichengreen, B., D. Park, and K. Shin, 2013, “Growth Slowdowns Redux: New Evidence on the Middle-Income Trap,” NBER Working Paper No. 18673, January (Cambridge, Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Financial Stability Board, 2012, “Identifying the Effects of Regulatory Reforms on Emerging Market and Developing Economies: A Review of Potential Unintended Consequences,” Report to the G-20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors (June).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Fiszbein, A., and N. Schady, 2009, Conditional Cash Transfers: Reducing Present and Future Poverty (Washington: World Bank). http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTCCT/Resources/5757608-1234228266004/PRR-CCT_web_noembargo.pdf.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Frankel, J.A., C.A. Vegh, and G. Vuletin, 2011, “On Graduation from Fiscal Procyclicality,” NBER Working Paper No. 17619 (Cambridge, Massachusetts: National Bureau for Economic Research).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Guimarães, R., and P. Rungcharoenkitkul (forthcoming), “Fiscal Policy in Asia: Is It Countercyclical? Is It Effective?IMF Working Paper (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Herd, R., S. Hill, and V. Koen, 2011, “Fiscal Prospects and Reforms in India,” OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 911 (Paris: OECD Publishing).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Heston, A., R. Summers, and B. Alen, 2012, “Penn World Table Version 7.1,” Center for International Comparisons of Production, Income and Prices at the University of Pennsylvania (November).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Ilzetzki, E., E. Mendoza, and C. Végh, 2011, “How Big (Small?) Are Fiscal Multipliers?IMF Working Paper 11/52 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • International Monetary Fund, 2004, “Public Investment and Fiscal Policy,” Paper prepared by the IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department and Policy Development and Review Department in consultation with other departments and in cooperation with the World Bank and the Inter-American Development Bank. http://www.imf.org/external/np/fad/2004/pifp/eng/.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • International Monetary Fund, 2009, Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific (Washington, May).

  • International Monetary Fund, 2011a, “Revenue Mobilization in Developing Countries,” Policy Paper (March). http://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2011/030811.pdf.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • International Monetary Fund, 2011b, Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific (Washington, April).

  • International Monetary Fund, 2011c, “Japan: Spillover Report for the 2011 Article IV Consultation,” Country Report No. 11–183 (Washington, July).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • International Monetary Fund, 2011d, Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific (Washington, October).

  • International Monetary Fund, 2012a, “Philippines: Technical Assistance Report on Road Map for a Pro-Growth and Equitable Tax System,” IMF Country Report No. 12/60 (Washington, March).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • International Monetary Fund, 2012b, Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific (Washington, April).

  • International Monetary Fund, 2012c, “2012 Spillover Report,” IMF Policy Paper (Washington, July).

  • International Monetary Fund, 2012d, “Pilot External Sector Report” (Washington, July).

  • International Monetary Fund, 2013a, “Energy Subsidy Reform: Lessons and Implications,” IMF Policy Paper (Washington).

  • International Monetary Fund, 2013b, “Asia and Pacific Small States—Raising Potential Growth and Enhancing Resilience to Shocks,” Policy Paper (Washington, February). http://www.imf.org/external/[pp/longres.aspx?id=4746.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • International Monetary Fund, 2013c, Fiscal Monitor (Washington, April).

  • Jha, S., S. Mallick, D. Park, and P. Quising, 2010, “Effectiveness of Countercyclical Fiscal Policy: Time-Series Evidence from Developing Asia,” ADB Economics Working Paper Series, No. 211 (Manila: Asian Development Bank).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Jha, S., and B. Ramaswami, 2010, “How Can Food Subsidies Work Better? Answers from India and the Philippines,” ADB Economics Working Paper Series, No. 221 (Manila: Asian Development Bank).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Johansson, Å., C. Heady, J. Arnold, B. Brys, and L. Vartia, 2008, “Tax and Economic Growth,” OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 620 (Paris: OECD Publishing).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Kaminsky, G., C. Reinhart, and C. Végh, 2005, “When It Rains, It Pours: Pro-Cyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies,” NBER Macroeconomics Annual Report 2004, Vol. 19, pp. 1182.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Lane, P., and A. Tornell, 1999, “The Voracity Effect,” American Economic Review, Vol. 89, No. 1 (March), pp. 2246.

  • Leamer, E.E., 1978, Specification Search: Ad Hoc Inference with Nonexperimental Data (New York: Wiley).

  • Lim, C., F. Columba, A. Costa, P. Kongsamut, A. Otani, M. Sayid, T. Wezel, and X. Wu, 2011, “Macroprudential Policy: What Instruments and How Are They Used? Lessons from Country Experiences,” IMF Working Paper No. 238 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Magnus, J.R., O. Powell, and P. Prüfer, 2010, “A Comparison of Two Model-Averaging Techniques with an Application to Growth Empirics,” Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 154, pp. 13953.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Manasan, R.G., 2011, “Assessment of the Impact of the Fiscal Stimulus, Fiscal Risk and Fiscal Transparency: The Philippines,” Chapter 6 in Assessment on the Impact of Stimulus, Fiscal Transparency and Fiscal Risk, ed. by T. Ito and F. Parulian, ERIA Research Project Report, No. 2010–1 (Jakarta: Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia). http://www.eria.org/publications/research_project_reports/assessment-on-the-impact-of-stimulus-fiscal-transparency-and-fiscal-risk.html.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Mohommad, A., R. Anand, D. Coady, V. Thakoor, and J.P. Walsh, forthcoming, “The Fiscal and Welfare Impacts of Reforming Fuel Subsidies in India,” IMF Working Paper (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), 2012, “Agricultural Policy Monitoring and Evaluation.”

  • Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), 2012, Society at a Glance: Asia/Pacific 2011 (Paris: OECD Publishing). http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264106154-en.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • OECD and World Health Organization (WHO), 2012, Health at a Glance: Asia/Pacific 2012, Introduction (Paris: OECD Publishing). http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264183902-en.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Reside, R.E., 2006, “Towards Rational Fiscal Incentives (Good Investments or Wasted Gifts?),” Economic Policy Reform Advocacy Fiscal Sector Report, No. 1, University of Philippines School of Economics.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Reside, R.E., 2007, “Can Fiscal Incentives Stimulate Regional Investment in the Philippines? (An Update of Empirical Results),” UPSE Discussion Paper No. 0705 (Quezon City: University of the Philippines School of Economics). http://www.econ.upd.edu.ph/dp/index.php/dp/article/view/67/59.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Sala-i-Martin, X., G. Doppelhoffer, and R. Miller, 2004, “Determinants of Long-Run Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach,” American Economic Review, Vol. 94, No. 4 (September), pp. 81335.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Schneider, F., A. Buehn, and C. Montenegro, 2010, “Shadow Economies All over the World: New Estimates for 162 Countries,” Policy Research Working Paper 5356 (Washington: World Bank).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Seneviratne, D., and Y. Sun, 2013, “Infrastructure and Income Distribution in ASEAN5: What Are the Links?IMF Working Paper No. 13/41 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Sheridan, N., P. Tumbarello, and Y. Wu, 2012, “Global and Regional Spillovers to Pacific Island Countries,” IMF Working Paper No. 12/154 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Silvani, C., J. Brondolo, E. LeBorgne, and Frank Bosch, 2008, “Tax Administration Reform and Fiscal Adjustment: The Case of Indonesia (2001–07),” IMF Working Paper No. 08/129 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Spilimbergo, A., S.A. Symansky, and M. Schindler, 2009, “Fiscal Multipliers,” IMF Staff Position Note No. 2009/11 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Tang, H.C., P. Liu, and E.C. Cheung, 2010, “Changing Impact of Fiscal Policy on Selected ASEAN Countries,” ADB Working Paper No. 70 (December), ADB Economics Working Paper Series No. 211 (Manila: Asian Development Bank).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Tapsoba, S., forthcoming, “Options and Strategies for Fiscal Consolidation in India,” IMF Working Paper (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Tornell, A., and P. Lane, 1999, “The Voracity Effect,” American Economic Review, Vol. 89, No.1, pp. 2248.

  • Tumbarello, P., E. Cabezon, and Y. Wu, forthcoming, “Are the Asia and Pacific Small States Different from Other Small States?IMF Working Paper (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Usui, N., 2011a, Tax Reform Toward Consolidation—Policy Options for the Government of the Philippines (Manila: Asian Development Bank).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • Usui, N., 2011b, Searching for Effective Poverty Interventions Conditional Cash Transfer in the Philippines (Manila: Asian Development Bank).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • World Bank, 2012a, “Creating Fiscal Space through Revenue Mobilization,” South Asia Economic Focus (Washington, June). http://hdl.handle.net/10986/11925.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • World Bank, 2012b, Targeting Poor and Vulnerable Households in Indonesia (Washington). http://www.ausaid.gov.au/countries/eastasia/indonesia/Documents/prsp-report-targeting-poor-ipm.pdf.

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation
  • World Bank, 2012c, World Development Indicators (Washington).

  • Yang, Y., M. Davies, S. Wang, J. Dunn, and Y. Wu, 2011, “Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanisms in Pacific Island Countries,” IMF Working Paper No. 11/96 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    • Search Google Scholar
    • Export Citation