Abstract

The statistical tables in this appendix have been compiled on the basis of information available on or before March 1986. The recording of the figures for 1985 and beyond with the same degree of precision as the historical figures is solely a matter of convenience. It is not intended to convey any connotation regarding the degree of accuracy attaching to these estimates and projections.

Assumptions and Conventions

The statistical tables in this appendix have been compiled on the basis of information available on or before March 1986. The recording of the figures for 1985 and beyond with the same degree of precision as the historical figures is solely a matter of convenience. It is not intended to convey any connotation regarding the degree of accuracy attaching to these estimates and projections.

The estimates and projections for 1986 and 1987 are predicated on a number of assumptions and working hypotheses:

(1) for the major currencies, the average exchange rates of March 3–7, 1986 will remain unchanged in real terms throughout the balance of 1986 and 1987.

(2) “present” policies of national authorities will be maintained; and

(3) the price of oil will average $15 per barrel from the second quarter of 1986 to the end of 1987.

A few of the tables include series expressed in SDRs (or based on SDR values). The U.S. dollar/SDR conversion rates used in this report are, for the historical period, the geometric averages of daily rates given in the Fund’s International Financial Statistics (IFS). For the years prior to 1970, these data impute to the SDR a value of $1.00. For 1986 and 1987, the exchange rate assumptions specified above imply average U.S. dollar/SDR conversion rates of 1.144 and 1.158, respectively.

Classification of Countries

The basic distinction, adopted by the Fund in December 1979, is between industrial countries and developing countries. Industrial countries comprise:

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The seven largest countries in this group in terms of GNP (Canada, the United States, Japan, France, the Federal Republic of Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom) are collectively referred to as the major industrial countries.

The developing countries include all other Fund members (as of January 1, 1986) together with certain essentially autonomous dependent territories for which adequate statistics are available.1 The regional breakdowns of data for developing countries conform to the regional classification used in IFS. It should be noted that, in this classification, Egypt, and Libyan Arab Jamahiriya are part of the Middle East, not Africa.

The analytical groupings currently used by the staff to distinguish among developing countries are (1) countries grouped by predominant export; (2) countries grouped by financial criteria; (3) countries grouped by other criteria; and (4) countries grouped by the former classification criteria. At present, the financial criteria first distinguish among capital exporting and capital importing countries. Countries in the latter, much larger, group are then distinguished on the basis of two additional financial criteria: by predominant type of creditor and by the degree of debt-servicing difficulties faced by countries. The country groups shown under the heading of “by miscellaneous criteria” include capital importing fuel exporters; 15 heavily indebted countries; small low-income countries; and sub-Saharan Africa (excluding Nigeria and South Africa). Table A presents the standard set of headings used in many of the tables for developing countries as well as the proportion of developing country GDP, exports of goods and services, and indebtedness accounted for by the groups in question. Further details on the classification scheme are given below.

The first analytical criterion used to group developing countries is by predominant export category. Four categories are distinguished: fuel (SITC 3); other primary commodities (SITC 0,1,2,4, and diamonds and gemstones); manufactures (SITC 5 to 8, less diamonds and gemstones); and “services and remittances,” On the basis of data for 1980, countries are assigned to that commodity grouping which accounts for 50 percent or more of their exports. Specifically, countries are assigned to the “services and remittances” category if their receipts on these transactions account for at least half of their exports of goods and services. If countries do not meet this criterion, they are assigned to that trade category (of the three listed above) which accounts for at least half of their total merchandise exports.2

Given these definitions, the fuel exporters comprise the following countries:

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The primary product exporters, that is, countries whose exports of agricultural and mineral primary products other than fuel accounted for over 50 percent of their total exports in 1980, comprise:

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A further distinction is made among the primary product exporters on the basis of whether countries’ exports of primary commodities (other than fuel) consisted primarily of agricultural (SITC 0 and 1) or mineral (SITC 2 and 4 and diamonds and gemstones) commodities. The mineral exporters comprise:

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The agricultural exporters are those non-fuel primary product exporters that are not also mineral exporters.

The exporters of manufactures (that is, those countries or areas whose exports of manufactures accounted in 1980 for over 50 percent of total exports) include:

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The service and remittance countries, that is, those countries whose receipts from services (such as tourism) and private transfers (such as workers’ remittances) amount to at least 50 percent of their exports of goods and services, comprise:

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The primary product exporters, exporters of manufactures, and service and remittance countries taken together are referred to as the “non-fuel exporters.”

A second set of analytical groupings of developing countries is based on financial criteria. A first distinction is made between those developing countries that have traditionally been capital exporters and those that have traditionally been capital importers. At present, capital exporters are defined as those developing countries that, on average, recorded a current account surplus during the period 1979–81 and were aid donors over the same period. The capital exporting countries comprise:

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Table A.

Developing Countries: Shares of Various Subgroups in Aggregate GDP, Exports of Goods and Services, and Debt Outstanding, 1980

(In percent)

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In percent of outstanding debt of capital importing developing countries.

Excluding Nigeria and South Africa.

The capital importing countries comprise all other developing countries.

Within the group of capital importing developing countries and areas, two types of financial distinctions are made. The first distinguishes among countries and areas on the basis of their predominant type of creditor. Market borrowers are defined as those countries which obtained at least two thirds of their external borrowings from 1978 to 1982 from commercial creditors. The group includes:

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Official borrowers comprise those countries, except China and India, which obtained two thirds or more of their external borrowings from 1978 to 1982 from official creditors. The countries are:

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Diversified borrowers comprise those capital importing developing countries that are not market or official borrowers. These countries’ external borrowings in 1978–82 were more or less evenly divided between official and commercial creditors. China and India are included in this group.

A second financial distinction among capital importing developing countries is based on whether countries have or have not experienced debt-servicing difficulties in the recent past. Countries that have experienced debt-servicing problems are defined as those countries which incurred external payments arrears during 1983 to 1984 or rescheduled their debt during the period from end-1982 to mid-1985 as reported in the relevant issues of the Fund’s Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions. Countries classified as not having experienced debt-servicing problems are defined as all other capital importing developing countries.

Several other analytical groups are also used in the report. One of these is the group of capital importing fuel exporters. This group, which is also referred to as the “indebted fuel exporters,” comprises those 12 fuel exporters that are not capital exporters. A second is the group of 15 heavily indebted countries. This group comprises:

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A third is the group of low-income countries, which comprises 43 countries whose per capita GDP, as estimated by the World Bank, did not exceed the equivalent of $410 in 1980. The countries in this group are:

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References to the small or smaller low-income countries refer to the above group, less China and India. Reference is also made to sub-Saharan Africa, which comprises all African countries (as defined in IFS) except Algeria, Morocco, Nigeria, South Africa, and Tunisia.

Finally, many of the tables present data on the developing countries grouped in accordance with the former classification categories. In this system, which was the one used from 1980 to 1984, the developing countries were divided into two groups—”oil exporting countries” and “non-oil developing countries.” The countries included under the heading oil exporting countries3 are:

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Among the non-oil developing countries, four analytical subgroups of countries were distinguished. These subgroupings were based primarily on the character of the countries’ economic activity and on the predominant composition of their exports. Since the large “non-oil” group in the basic classification included some countries that had significant production or exports of oil, one of the analytic subgroups shown separately comprised countries (outside the main oil exporting group mentioned above) whose oil exports exceeded their oil imports in most years of the 1970s. The countries classified in the subgroup net oil exporters were:

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The net oil importers subgroup comprises all other non-oil developing countries.

Except where otherwise specifically indicated, the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics and other non-member countries of Eastern Europe, Cuba, and North Korea are excluded from the following tables. Also, it has not been possible to include in the tables a number of small countries or territories for which trade and payments data are not available.

List of Tables

Medium-Term Scenario

Table A1.

World Output, 1968–871

(Annual changes, in percent)

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Real GDP (or GNP) for industrial and developing countries and real net material product (NMP) for other countries. Composites for the country groups are averages of percentage changes for individual countries weighted by the average U.S. dollar value of their respective GDPs (GNPs or NMPs where applicable) over the preceding three years. Because of the uncertainty surrounding the valuation of the composite NMP of the other countries, they have been assigned—somewhat arbitrarily—a weight of 15 percent in the calculation of the growth of world output. Excluding China prior to 1978.

Compound annual rates of change.

The U.S.S.R. and other countries of Eastern Europe that are not members of the Fund.

Table A2.

Industrial Countries: Real GNP and Total Domestic Demand, 1968–871

(Annual changes, in percent)

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Composites for the country groups are averages of percentage changes for individual countries weighted by the average U.S. dollar value of their respective GNPs over the preceding three years.

Compound annual rates of change.

From fourth quarter of preceding year.

GDP at market prices.

Average of expenditure, income, and output estimates of GDP at market prices.

Table A3.

Industrial Countries: Components of Real GNP, 1968–871

(Annual changes, in percent)

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Composites for country groups are averages of percentage changes in real terms for individual countries weighted by the average U.S. dollar value of their respective GNPs over the preceding three years.

Compound annual rates of change.

Changes expressed as a percentage of GNP in the preceding period.

Table A4.

Industrial Countries: Employment and Unemployment, 1968–871

(In percent)

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The figures in the table are not comparable among countries since they are based on the differing labor force definitions and concepts used by the respective national statistical agencies.

Composites for the country groups are averages of percentage changes for individual countries weighted by the average U.S. dollar value of their respective GNPs over the preceding three years.

National unemployment rates weighted by labor force in the respective countries.

Figures for ]1968 to 1977 have been adjusted by the staff to allow for a discontinuity in Italian labor force statistics.