Abstract

The Statistical tables in this appendix have been compiled on the basis of information available on September 4, 1992. The estimates and projections for 1992 and 1993, as well as those for the medium-term scenario for 1994-97, are based on a number of assumptions and working hypotheses.

Assumptions

The Statistical tables in this appendix have been compiled on the basis of information available on September 4, 1992. The estimates and projections for 1992 and 1993, as well as those for the medium-term scenario for 1994-97, are based on a number of assumptions and working hypotheses.

  • Real effective exchange rates are assumed to remain constant at their average level during August 1-7, 1992, except for the bilateral exchange rates among the ERM currencies, which are assumed to remain constant in nominal terms.

  • “Present” policies of national authorities will be maintained.

  • The price of oil will average $18.32 a barrel in 1992 and $18.21 a barrel in 1993. In the medium term, the oil price is assumed to remain unchanged in real terms.

  • Interest rates, as represented by the London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) on six-month U. S. dollar deposits, will average 3.9 percent in 1992, 4¼ percent in 1993, and will gradually increase to 6 percent in 1997.

Conventions

U. S. dollar/SDR conversion rates used in this report are, for the historical period, the geometric averages of daily rates given in the IMF’s International Financial Statistics (IFS). For 1992 and 1993, the exchange rate assumptions specified above imply average U. S. dollar/SDR conversion rates of 1.412 and 1.423, respectively. For the Eastern European countries, external transactions in nonconvertible currencies through 1990 are converted to U. S. dollars at the implicit U. S. dollar/ ruble rates obtained from each of these countries’ national currency exchange rates for the U. S. dollar and for the ruble.

Composite data for country groups shown in the World Economic Outlook are either sums or weighted averages of data for individual countries; they are calculated according to the following conventions.

  • For data relating to the domestic economy, composites are arithmetic averages of percentage changes for individual countries weighted by averages over the preceding three years of their respective GDPs in U. S. dollars. Data expressed as ratios (for example, in percent of GDP) are also weighted by three-year moving averages of U. S. dollar GDPs. Unemployment rates, however, are weighted by the size of each country’s labor force.

  • For data relating to the external economy (balance of payments and debt), composites are sums of individual country data after conversion to U. S. dollars at the average (end-of-period for debt) exchange rates in the years indicated, except that composites of foreign trade unit values are arithmetic averages of percentage changes for individual countries weighted by U. S. dollar values of their respective exports or imports in the preceding year. Group composites of trade volumes are derived as sums of trade values (on a balance of payments basis) deflated by corresponding unit-value group composites.

Unless otherwise indicated, multiyear averages of growth rates are expressed as compound annual rates of change. Multiyear averages for periods beginning before 1977 for country groups including China exclude data for that country because the data are not available.

Classification of Countries

Summary of the Country Classification

Beginning with this World Economic Outlook, the country classification is modified to permit a division of the world’s countries and territories into three, rather than two, broad groups: industrial countries, developing countries, and countries with previously centrally planned economies.1 Before, countries in the last group were classified as developing countries. The new group comprises Central and Eastern European countries, all the successor states of the former Soviet Union, and Mongolia. A common characteristic of these countries is the transitional state of their economies from a centrally administered system to one based on market principles.

Tables A and B provide an overview by standard groups in the World Economic Outlook, showing the number of countries in each group and the average shares of groups in aggregate GDP, total exports of goods and services, and total debt outstanding. The general features and compositions of these groups in the revised World Economic Outlook classification are as follows.

Table A.

Industrial Countries: Classification by Standard World Economic Outlook Groups and Their Shares in Aggregate GDP and Exports of Goods and Services, 1988-90

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The shares for 1988-90 apply to west Germany only; unified Germany’s share of world GDP would be nearly 1 percentage point larger.

Table B.

Developing Countries and Former Centrally Planned Economies: Classification by Standard World Economic Outlook Groups and Their Shares in Aggregate GDP, Exports of Goods and Services, and Total Debt Outstanding, 1988–90

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The group of industrial countries (23 countries) comprises

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The seven largest countries in this group in terms of GDP—the United States, Japan, Germany, France, Italy, the United Kingdom, and Canada—are collectively referred to as the major industrial countries. The members of the European Community are also distinguished as a subgroup.2 They are

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In 1991 and subsequent years, data for Germany refer to west Germany and the former German Democratic Republic. Before 1991, economic data are not available on a unified basis or in a consistent manner. In general, data on national accounts and domestic economic and financial activity through 1990 cover west Germany only, whereas data for the central government, foreign trade, and balance of payments apply to west Germany through June 1990 and to unified Germany thereafter.

In principle, the group of developing countries (130 countries) includes all countries that are not classified as industrial or as former centrally planned economies, together with a few dependent territories for which adequate statistics are available. In practice, however, a number of countries are presently not included, either because their economies are not monitored by the IMF or because data bases have not yet been compiled.3

The regional breakdowns of developing countries in the World Economic Outlook conform to the IFS classification, with one important exception. Because most of the developing countries in Europe (all except Cyprus, Malta, and Turkey) are included in the group of former centrally planned economies, the revised World Economic Outlook classification combines the countries in the two IFS regions, Europe and the Middle East, into one. It should also be noted that, as before, Egypt and the Libyan Arab Jamahiriya are included in this region, not in Africa. Two additional regional groupings are included in the World Economic Outlook because of their analytical significance. These are sub-Saharan Africa4 and four newly industrializing Asian economies.5

The developing countries are also grouped according to analytical criteria: predominant export, financial criteria, and miscellaneous groups. The export criteria are based on countries’ export composition in 1984-86, whereas the financial criteria reflect net creditor and debtor positions as of 1987, sources of borrowing as of the end of 1989, and experience with debt servicing during 1986-90.

The first analytical criterion, by predominant export, distinguishes among five groups: fuel (Standard International Trade Classification—SITC 3); manufactures (SITC 5 to 8, less diamonds and gemstones); nonfuel primary products (SITC 0, 1, 2, 4, and diamonds and gemstones); services and private transfers; and diversified export base. A further distinction is made among the exporters of nonfuel primary products on the basis of whether countries’ exports of primary commodities consist primarily of agricultural commodities (SITC 0, 1, 2 except 27, 28, and 4) or minerals (SITC 27 and 28, and diamonds and gemstones).

The financial criteria first distinguish between net creditor and net debtor countries. Countries in the latter, much larger group are then differentiated on the basis of two additional financial criteria: by predominant type of creditor and by recent experience with debt servicing.

The country groups shown under miscellaneous groups constitute the small low-income economies, the least developed countries, and 15 heavily indebted countries.

The new group of former centrally planned economies (23 countries) comprises

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Two subgroups are distinguished among the former centrally planned economies, Eastern Europe and the former U. S.S.R. The countries in Eastern Europe (7 countries) are

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Detailed Description of the Developing Country Classification by Analytical Group

Countries Classified by Predominant Export

Fuel (19 countries). Countries whose average ratio of fuel exports to total exports in 1984-86 exceeded 50 percent are assigned to this category. The group comprises

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Nonfuel exports (111 countries). This category identifies countries with total exports of goods and services including a substantial share of (a) manufactures, (b) primary products, or (c) services and private transfers. However, those countries whose export structure is so diversified that they do not fall clearly into any one of these three groups are assigned to a fourth group, (d) diversified export base.

(a) Economies whose exports of manufactures accounted for over 50 percent of their total exports on average in 1984-86 are included in the group of exporters of manufactures (11 countries). This group includes

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(b) The group of exporters of primary products (54 countries) consists of those countries whose exports of primary products (SITC 0, 1, 2, 4, and diamonds and gemstones) accounted for at least half of their total exports on average in 1984-86.7 These countries are

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Among exporters of primary products, a further distinction is made between exporters of agricultural products and minerals. The group of mineral exporters (14 countries) comprises

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All other exporters of primary products are classified as agricultural exporters (40 countries).

(c) The exporters of services and recipients of private transfers (33 countries) are defined as those countries whose average income from services and private transfers accounted for more than half of total average export earnings in 1984-86. This group comprises

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(d) Countries with a diversified export base (13 countries) are those whose export earnings in 1984-86 were not dominated by any one of the categories mentioned under (a) through (c) above. The group comprises

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Countries Classified by Financial Criteria

Net creditor countries (8 countries) are defined as developing countries that were net external creditors in 1987 or that experienced substantial cumulated current account surpluses (excluding official transfers) between 1967-68 (the beginning of most balance of payments series in the World Economic Outlook data base) and 1987. The net creditor group consists of the following economies:

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Net debtor countries (122 countries) are disaggregated according to two criteria: (a) predominant type of creditor and (b) experience with debt servicing.

(a) Within the classification by predominant type of creditor (sources of borrowing), three subgroups are identified: market borrowers, official borrowers, and diversified borrowers.

Market borrowers (22 countries) are defined as net debtor countries with more than two thirds of their total liabilities outstanding at the end of 1989 owed to commercial creditors. They comprise

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Official borrowers (69 countries) are defined as net debtor countries with more than two thirds of their total liabilities outstanding at the end of 1989 owed to official creditors. This group comprises

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Diversified borrowers (31 countries) consist of those net debtor developing countries that are classified neither as market nor as official borrowers:

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(b) Within the classification by experience with debt servicing, a further distinction is made. Countries with recent debt-servicing difficulties (72 countries) are defined as those countries that incurred external payments arrears or entered into official or commercial bank debt-rescheduling agreements during 1986-90. Information on these developments is taken from relevant issues of the IMF’s Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions. All other net debtor countries are classified as countries without debt-servicing difficulties (50 countries).

Miscellaneous Groups

The group of small low-income economies (45 countries) comprises those IMF members—excluding China and India—whose GDP per person, as estimated by the World Bank, did not exceed the equivalent of $425 in 1986. These countries are

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The countries currently classified by the United Nations as the least developed countries (46 countries) are9

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The group of 15 heavily indebted countries (the Baker countries) comprises those countries associated with the “Program for Sustained Growth” proposed by the Governor for the United States at the 1985 IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings in Seoul. These countries are

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List of tables

Medium-Term Baseline Scenario

Table A1.

World Output1

(Annual change, in percent)

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Real GDP For a few industrial countries and—through 1990—for several former centrally planned economies, total output is measured by real GNP and real net material product (NMP), respectively.

Figures from 1990 onward are weighted averages of separate estimates for the 15 independent states of the former U. S.S.R. region.

Table A2.

Industrial Countries: Real GDP and Total Domestic Demand

(Annual change, in percent)

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From fourth quarter of preceding year.

GNP at market prices.

Data through 1990 apply to west Germany only.

Average of expenditure, income, and output estimates of GDP at market prices.

Table A3.

Industrial Countries: Components of Real GDP

(Annual change, in percent)

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Data through 1990 apply to west Germany only.

Changes expressed as percent of GDP in the preceding period.