- International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
- Published Date:
- April 2019
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
©2019 International Monetary Fund
Cover: IMF CSF Creative Solutions Division
Composition: AGS, An RR Donnelley Company
Cataloging-in-Publication Data IMF Library
Names: International Monetary Fund.
Title: Fiscal monitor.
Other titles: World economic and financial surveys, 0258–7440
Description: Washington, DC : International Monetary Fund, 2009- | Semiannual | Some issues also have thematic titles.
Subjects: LCSH: Finance, Public—Periodicals. | Finance, Public—Forecasting—Periodicals. | Fiscal policy—Periodicals. | Fiscal policy—Forecasting—Periodicals.
Classification: LCC HJ101.F57
ISBN: 978-1-49830-218-0 (paper)
- 978-1-49830-220-3 (ePub)
- 978-1-49830-221-0 (Mobi)
- 978-1-49830-222-7 (PDF)
Disclaimer: The Fiscal Monitor is a survey by the IMF staff published twice a year, in the spring and fall. The report analyzes the latest public finance developments, updates medium-term fiscal projections, and assesses policies to put public finances on a sustainable footing. The report was prepared by IMF staff and has benefited from comments and suggestions from Executive Directors following their discussion of the report on March 21, 2019. The views expressed in this publication are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Directors or their national authorities.
Recommended citation: International Monetary Fund (IMF). 2019. Fiscal Monitor. Washington, April.
Publication orders may be placed online, by fax, or through the mail:
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- Assumptions and Conventions
- Further Information
- Executive Summary
- Chapter 1. Fiscal Policy for a Changing Global Economy
- Recent Fiscal Developments and Outlook
- Risks to the Fiscal Outlook
- Setting the Right Course for Fiscal Policy
- Box 1.1. Fiscal Implications of Potential Stress in Global Financial Markets
- Box 1.2. China: How Can Fiscal Policy Support Economic Activity and Rebalancing?
- Box 1.3. Avoiding International Tax Wars
- Chapter 2. Curbing Corruption
- Corruption and Government: Channels and Fiscal Costs
- The Role of Fiscal Institutions: Country Experiences and Lessons
- Promoting Good Governance in the Public Sector
- Box 2.1. Governance in the Extractive Industries
- Box 2.2. Supportive Legal Systems
- Box 2.3. IMF Work on Fiscal Governance
- Country Abbreviations
- Methodological and Statistical Appendix
- Data and Conventions
- Fiscal Policy Assumptions
- Definition and Coverage of Fiscal Data
- List of Tables
- Selected Topics
- IMF Executive Board Discussion of the Outlook, April 2019
- Figure 1.1. General Government Fiscal Stance and Cyclical Position, 2007–18
- Figure 1.2. General Government Gross-Debt-to-GDP and Interest-Bill-to-Tax-Revenue, 2007–18
- Figure 1.3. Real GDP per Capita Growth and Income Inequality, 1970–2018
- Figure 1.4. Implicit Liabilities of Pension and Healthcare Spending, 2015–50
- Figure 1.5. Additional Spending Required to Achieve High Performance on Selected Sustainable Development Goals in 2030
- Figure 1.6. Evolution of Labor Income Shares since 1995
- Figure 1.7. Advanced Economies: General Government Structural Primary Balance, 2012–24
- Figure 1.8. Advanced Economies: Spread over 10-Year German Bond Yields, 2018–19
- Figure 1.9. Advanced Economies: Drivers of Change in General Government Debt, 2007–18
- Figure 1.10. Advanced Economies: General Government Expenditures and Revenue, 2007–18
- Figure 1.11. Advanced Economies: Change in General Government Structural Primary Balance, 2018–24
- Figure 1.12. Advanced Economies: Change in General Government Gross Debt and Interest Bill, 2018–24
- Figure 1.13. Emerging Market and Middle-Income Economies: General Government Overall Balance, 2012–24
- Figure 1.14. Emerging Market and Middle-Income Economies: Drivers of Change in General Government Debt, 2017–18
- Figure 1.15. Emerging Market and Middle-Income Economies: Sovereign 10-Year US Dollar Bond Yields, 2018–19
- Figure 1.16. Emerging Market and Middle-Income Economies: Sovereign Spreads over 10-Year US Treasury Bond Yields, 2018–19
- Figure 1.17. Emerging Market and Middle-Income Economies: General Government Revenues, 1998–2018
- Figure 1.18. Emerging Market and Middle-Income Economies: General Government Expenditures, 1998–2018
- Figure 1.19. Emerging Market and Middle-Income Economies: Change in General Government Expenditures, 2012–18
- Figure 1.20. Low-Income Developing Countries: General Government Overall Balance, 2012–24
- Figure 1.21. Low-Income Developing Countries: General Government Revenue and Expense, 2012–24
- Figure 1.22. Low-Income Developing Countries: Change in General Government Expenditures, 2012–18
- Figure 1.23. Low-Income Developing Countries: General Government Interest Expense, 2012–18
- Figure 1.24. Low-Income Developing Countries: Risk of Debt Distress, 2012 and 2018
- Figure 1.25. Low-Income Developing Countries: General Government Gross Debt, 2012–24
- Figure 1.26. Global Economic Uncertainty Indices, 2017–19
- Figure 1.27. Commodity Price Outlook, 2004–24
- Figure 1.28. Public Capital Stock and Investment, 1995–2015
- Figure 1.29. Individuals Using the Internet, 1990–2016
- Figure 1.30. Tax Revenue, 201
- Figure 1.31. Energy Subsidies, 2017
- Figure 1.32. Additional Spending on the Sustainable Development Goals, Net of Increased Tax Revenue, 2030
- Figure 1.1.1. Responses of Key Variables to Potential Stress in Global Financial Markets
- Figure 1.2.1. China: General Government Net Financial Worth after the Investment-Led Stimulus
- Figure 1.2.2. China: General Government Financial Asset Returns and Liability Costs
- Figure 2.1. Perceptions of Corruption over Time and at Different Income Levels
- Figure 2.2. Share of Firms Expected to Pay Bribes to
- Figure 2.3. Corruption Leakages in the Public Sector
- Figure 2.4. Government Revenues and Corruption
- Figure 2.5. Corruption and Revenue Collection
- Figure 2.6. Control of Corruption and Public Spending on Education and Health
- Figure 2.7. Corruption and Performance of State-Owned Enterprises
- Figure 2.8. Countries with Less Corruption Have Higher Test Scores and Less Waste in Public Investment
- Figure 2.9. Georgia: Tax Compliance Surged with Anti-Corruption Reforms
- Figure 2.10. Rwanda: Tax Revenues Surged with Anti-Corruption Reforms
- Figure 2.11. Fiscal Transparency, Procurement Systems, and Corruption, 2017
- Figure 2.12. Fiscal Institutions and Control of Corruption
- Figure 2.13. Relative Importance of Fiscal Institutions
- Figure 2.14. Fiscal Governance Framework
- Figure 2.15. Corruption Control and Attitude toward Tax Cheating
- Figure 2.16. Corruption Is a Challenge for Many Resource-Rich Countries
- Figure 2.17. Many Audit Agencies Are Constrained by a Lack of Resources
- Figure 2.18. Purpose of Foreign Bribes
- Table 1.1. General Government Fiscal Balance, 2012–24: Overall Balance
- Table 1.2. General Government Debt, 2012–24
- Table 1.3. Selected Advanced Economies: Gross Financing Needs, 2019–21
- Table 1.4. Selected Emerging Market and Middle-Income Economies: Gross Financing Needs, 2019–20
- Table 1.5. Selected Emerging Market and Middle-Income Economies: Fiscal Outlook in 2019 and over the Medium Term
- Table 1.2.1. China: Long Shadows of Investment-Led Stimulus during the Global Financial Crisis
- Online-Only Annexes
- Annex 2.1. Cross-Country Evidence on Fiscal Institutions, Corruption, and Fiscal Outcomes
- Annex 2.2. Assessing Corruption Using Natural and Policy Experiments
- Annex 2.3. Key Features of a Good Governance Framework in Revenue Administration
- Editor’s Note (May 6, 2019):
- The online edition of this report has been updated to reflect the following changes to the print edition:
Assumptions and Conventions
The following symbols have been used throughout this publication:
- … to indicate that data are not available
- — to indicate that the figure is zero or less than half the final digit shown, or that the item does not exist
- – between years or months (for example, 2008–09 or January–June) to indicate the years or months covered, including the beginning and ending years or months
- / between years (for example, 2008/09) to indicate a fiscal or financial year
“Billion” means a thousand million; “trillion” means a thousand billion.
“Basis points” refers to hundredths of 1 percentage point (for example, 25 basis points are equivalent to ¼ of 1 percentage point).
“n.a.” means “not applicable.”
Minor discrepancies between sums of constituent figures and totals are due to rounding.
As used in this publication, the term “country” does not in all cases refer to a territorial entity that is a state as understood by international law and practice. As used here, the term also covers some territorial entities that are not states but for which statistical data are maintained on a separate and independent basis.
Corrections and Revisions
The data and analysis appearing in the Fiscal Monitor are compiled by the IMF staff at the time of publication. Every effort is made to ensure their timeliness, accuracy, and completeness. When errors are discovered, corrections and revisions are incorporated into the digital editions available from the IMF website and on the IMF eLibrary (see below). All substantive changes are listed in the online table of contents.
Print and Digital Editions
Print copies of this Fiscal Monitor can be ordered from the IMF bookstore at imfbk.st/25735
Multiple digital editions of the Fiscal Monitor, including ePub, enhanced PDF, Mobi, and HTML, are available on the IMF eLibrary at www.elibrary.imf.org/APR19FM
Download a free PDF of the report and data sets for each of the charts therein from the IMF website at www.imf.org/publications/fm or scan the QR code below to access the Fiscal Monitor web page directly:
Copyright and Reuse
Information on the terms and conditions for reusing the contents of this publication are at www.imf.org/external/terms.htm.
The projections included in this issue of the Fiscal Monitor are drawn from the same database used for the April 2019 World Economic Outlook and Global Financial Stability Report (and are referred to as “IMF staff projections”). Fiscal projections refer to the general government, unless otherwise indicated. Short-term projections are based on officially announced budgets, adjusted for differences between the national authorities and the IMF staff regarding macroeconomic assumptions. The medium-term fiscal projections incorporate policy measures that are judged by the IMF staff as likely to be implemented. For countries supported by an IMF arrangement, the medium-term projections are those under the arrangement. In cases in which the IMF staff has insufficient information to assess the authorities’ budget intentions and prospects for policy implementation, an unchanged cyclically adjusted primary balance is assumed, unless indicated otherwise. Details on the composition of the groups, as well as country-specific assumptions, can be found in the Methodological and Statistical Appendix.
The Fiscal Monitor is prepared by the IMF Fiscal Affairs Department under the general guidance of Vitor Gaspar, Director of the Department. The project was directed by Paolo Mauro, Deputy Director; and Catherine Pattillo, Assistant Director. The main authors of this issue are John Ralyea and Elif Ture (team leaders), Jean-Marc Fournier, Moses Kabanda, Raphael Lam, Susan Yang, and Jing Zhou for Chapter 1, which also benefited from contributions by Ruud de Mooij, Alexander Klemm, Marialuz Moreno Badia, and Mehdi Raissi; and Paulo Medas (team leader), Olivier Basdevant, Anja Baum, Racheeda Boukezia, Jean-Marc Fournier, Jan Gottschalk, Klaus Hellwig, Salma Khalid, Amanda Sayegh, Gwenaelle Suc, and Benoit Wiest for Chapter 2, which also benefited from contributions from Enriko Aav, Debra Adams, Alpa Shah, Mouhamadou Sy, and Justin Zake. Sebastiaan Pompe and Jay Purcell of the Legal Department also contributed to Chapter 2. Excellent research contributions were provided by Juliana Arbelaez, Clay Hackney, Nghia Piotr Le, and Yuan Xiang. The Methodological and Statistical Appendix was prepared by Yuan Xiang. Meron Haile and Joni Mayfeld provided excellent coordination and editorial support. Rumit Pancholi from the Communications Department led the editorial team and managed the report’s production, with editorial assistance from Sherrie Brown, David Einhorn, Susan Graham, Linda Long, Lucy Morales, and Vector Talent Resources.
Inputs, comments, and suggestions were received from other departments in the IMF, including area departments— namely, the African Department, Asia and Pacific Department, European Department, Middle East and Central Asia Department, and Western Hemisphere Department—as well as the Communications Department, Institute for Capacity Development, Legal Department, Monetary and Capital Markets Department, Research Department, Secretary’s Department, Statistics Department, and Strategy, Policy, and Review Department. Chapter 2 of this Fiscal Monitor also benefited from comments by Raymond Fisman (Boston University), Dev Kar (Global Financial Integrity), Daniel Kaufmann (Natural Resource Governance Institute), Roberto de Michele (Inter-American Development Bank), David Szakonyi (The George Washington University), Frank Vogl (The Partnership for Transparency Fund), and Tito Cordella, Aart Kraay, Francesca Recanatini, and Sanjay Vani (all World Bank). Both projections and policy considerations are those of the IMF staff and should not be attributed to Executive Directors or to their national authorities.