Front Matter New
- International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
- Published Date:
- April 2019
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
©2019 International Monetary Fund
Cover: IMF CSF Creative Solutions Division
Composition: AGS, An RR Donnelley Company
Cataloging-in-Publication Data IMF Library
Names: International Monetary Fund.
Title: Fiscal monitor.
Other titles: World economic and financial surveys, 0258–7440
Description: Washington, DC : International Monetary Fund, 2009- | Semiannual | Some issues also have thematic titles.
Subjects: LCSH: Finance, Public—Periodicals. | Finance, Public—Forecasting—Periodicals. | Fiscal policy—Periodicals. | Fiscal policy—Forecasting—Periodicals.
Classification: LCC HJ101.F57
ISBN: 978-1-49830-218-0 (paper)
Disclaimer: The Fiscal Monitor is a survey by the IMF staff published twice a year, in the spring and fall. The report analyzes the latest public finance developments, updates medium-term fiscal projections, and assesses policies to put public finances on a sustainable footing. The report was prepared by IMF staff and has benefited from comments and suggestions from Executive Directors following their discussion of the report on March 21, 2019. The views expressed in this publication are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Directors or their national authorities.
Recommended citation: International Monetary Fund (IMF). 2019. Fiscal Monitor. Washington, April.
Publication orders may be placed online, by fax, or through the mail:
International Monetary Fund, Publication Services
P.O. Box 92780, Washington, DC 20090, U.S.A.
Telephone: (202) 623–7430 Fax: (202) 623–7201
List of Tables
Assumptions and Conventions
The following symbols have been used throughout this publication:
… to indicate that data are not available
— to indicate that the figure is zero or less than half the final digit shown, or that the item does not exist
– between years or months (for example, 2008–09 or January–June) to indicate the years or months covered, including the beginning and ending years or months
/ between years (for example, 2008/09) to indicate a fiscal or financial year
“Billion” means a thousand million; “trillion” means a thousand billion.
“Basis points” refers to hundredths of 1 percentage point (for example, 25 basis points are equivalent to ¼ of 1 percentage point).
“n.a.” means “not applicable.”
Minor discrepancies between sums of constituent figures and totals are due to rounding.
As used in this publication, the term “country” does not in all cases refer to a territorial entity that is a state as understood by international law and practice. As used here, the term also covers some territorial entities that are not states but for which statistical data are maintained on a separate and independent basis.
Corrections and Revisions
The data and analysis appearing in the Fiscal Monitor are compiled by the IMF staff at the time of publication. Every effort is made to ensure their timeliness, accuracy, and completeness. When errors are discovered, corrections and revisions are incorporated into the digital editions available from the IMF website and on the IMF eLibrary (see below). All substantive changes are listed in the online table of contents.
Print and Digital Editions
Print copies of this Fiscal Monitor can be ordered from the IMF bookstore at imfbk.st/25735
Multiple digital editions of the Fiscal Monitor, including ePub, enhanced PDF, Mobi, and HTML, are available on the IMF eLibrary at www.elibrary.imf.org/APR19FM
Download a free PDF of the report and data sets for each of the charts therein from the IMF website at www.imf.org/publications/fm or scan the QR code below to access the Fiscal Monitor web page directly:
Copyright and Reuse
Information on the terms and conditions for reusing the contents of this publication are at www.imf.org/external/terms.htm.
The projections included in this issue of the Fiscal Monitor are drawn from the same database used for the April 2019 World Economic Outlook and Global Financial Stability Report (and are referred to as “IMF staff projections”). Fiscal projections refer to the general government, unless otherwise indicated. Short-term projections are based on officially announced budgets, adjusted for differences between the national authorities and the IMF staff regarding macroeconomic assumptions. The medium-term fiscal projections incorporate policy measures that are judged by the IMF staff as likely to be implemented. For countries supported by an IMF arrangement, the medium-term projections are those under the arrangement. In cases in which the IMF staff has insufficient information to assess the authorities’ budget intentions and prospects for policy implementation, an unchanged cyclically adjusted primary balance is assumed, unless indicated otherwise. Details on the composition of the groups, as well as country-specific assumptions, can be found in the Methodological and Statistical Appendix.
The Fiscal Monitor is prepared by the IMF Fiscal Affairs Department under the general guidance of Vitor Gaspar, Director of the Department. The project was directed by Paolo Mauro, Deputy Director; and Catherine Pattillo, Assistant Director. The main authors of this issue are John Ralyea and Elif Ture (team leaders), Jean-Marc Fournier, Moses Kabanda, Raphael Lam, Susan Yang, and Jing Zhou for Chapter 1, which also benefited from contributions by Ruud de Mooij, Alexander Klemm, Marialuz Moreno Badia, and Mehdi Raissi; and Paulo Medas (team leader), Olivier Basdevant, Anja Baum, Racheeda Boukezia, Jean-Marc Fournier, Jan Gottschalk, Klaus Hellwig, Salma Khalid, Amanda Sayegh, Gwenaelle Suc, and Benoit Wiest for Chapter 2, which also benefited from contributions from Enriko Aav, Debra Adams, Alpa Shah, Mouhamadou Sy, and Justin Zake. Sebastiaan Pompe and Jay Purcell of the Legal Department also contributed to Chapter 2. Excellent research contributions were provided by Juliana Arbelaez, Clay Hackney, Nghia Piotr Le, and Yuan Xiang. The Methodological and Statistical Appendix was prepared by Yuan Xiang. Meron Haile and Joni Mayfeld provided excellent coordination and editorial support. Rumit Pancholi from the Communications Department led the editorial team and managed the report’s production, with editorial assistance from Sherrie Brown, David Einhorn, Susan Graham, Linda Long, Lucy Morales, and Vector Talent Resources.
Inputs, comments, and suggestions were received from other departments in the IMF, including area departments— namely, the African Department, Asia and Pacific Department, European Department, Middle East and Central Asia Department, and Western Hemisphere Department—as well as the Communications Department, Institute for Capacity Development, Legal Department, Monetary and Capital Markets Department, Research Department, Secretary’s Department, Statistics Department, and Strategy, Policy, and Review Department. Chapter 2 of this Fiscal Monitor also benefited from comments by Raymond Fisman (Boston University), Dev Kar (Global Financial Integrity), Daniel Kaufmann (Natural Resource Governance Institute), Roberto de Michele (Inter-American Development Bank), David Szakonyi (The George Washington University), Frank Vogl (The Partnership for Transparency Fund), and Tito Cordella, Aart Kraay, Francesca Recanatini, and Sanjay Vani (all World Bank). Both projections and policy considerations are those of the IMF staff and should not be attributed to Executive Directors or to their national authorities.