Front Matter

Front Matter

International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
Published Date:
April 2018
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World Economic and Financial Surveys

Fiscal Monitor

April 2018

Capitalizing on Good Times

©2018 International Monetary Fund

Cover: IMF Multimedia Services Division

Composition: AGS, An RR Donnelley Company

Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Joint Bank-Fund Library

Names: International Monetary Fund.

Title: Fiscal monitor.

Other titles: World economic and financial surveys, 0258-7440

Description: Washington, DC : International Monetary Fund, 2009- | Semiannual | Some issues also have thematic titles.

Subjects: LCSH: Finance, Public—Periodicals. | Finance, Public—Forecasting—Periodicals. | Fiscal policy—Periodicals. | Fiscal policy—Forecasting—Periodicals.

Classification: LCC HJ101.F57

ISBN: 978-1-48433-3952 (paper)

978-1-48434-9946 (ePub)

978-1-48434-9977 (Mobi)

978-1-48434-9724 (PDF)

Disclaimer: The Fiscal Monitor is a survey by the IMF staff published twice a year, in the spring and fall. The report analyzes the latest public finance developments, updates medium-term fiscal projections, and assesses policies to put public finances on a sustainable footing. The report was prepared by IMF staff and has benefited from comments and suggestions from Executive Directors following their discussion of the report on September 21, 2017. The views expressed in this publication are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Directors or their national authorities.

Recommended citation: International Monetary Fund (IMF). 2018. Fiscal Monitor: Capitalizing on Good Times. Washington, April.

Publication orders may be placed online, by fax, or through the mail:

International Monetary Fund, Publication Services

P.O. Box 92780, Washington, DC 20090, U.S.A.

Telephone: (202) 623–7430 Fax: (202) 623–7201



Assumptions and Conventions

The following symbols have been used throughout this publication:

… to indicate that data are not available

—to indicate that the figure is zero or less than half the final digit shown, or that the item does not exist

– between years or months (for example, 2008–09 or January–June) to indicate the years or months covered, including the beginning and ending years or months

/ between years (for example, 2008/09) to indicate a fiscal or financial year

“Billion” means a thousand million; “trillion” means a thousand billion.

“Basis points” refers to hundredths of 1 percentage point (for example, 25 basis points are equivalent to ¼ of 1 percentage point).

“n.a.” means “not applicable.”

Minor discrepancies between sums of constituent figures and totals are due to rounding.

As used in this publication, the term “country” does not in all cases refer to a territorial entity that is a state as understood by international law and practice. As used here, the term also covers some territorial entities that are not states but for which statistical data are maintained on a separate and independent basis.

Further Information

Corrections and Revisions

The data and analysis appearing in the Fiscal Monitor are compiled by the IMF staff at the time of publication. Every effort is made to ensure their timeliness, accuracy, and completeness. When errors are discovered, corrections and revisions are incorporated into the digital editions available from the IMF website and on the IMF eLibrary (see below). All substantive changes are listed in the online tables of contents.

Print and Digital Editions

Print copies of this Fiscal Monitor can be ordered at

The Fiscal Monitor is featured on the IMF website at This site includes a PDF of the report and data sets for each of the charts therein.

The IMF eLibrary hosts multiple digital editions of the Fiscal Monitor, including ePub, enhanced PDF, Mobi, and HTML:

Copyright and Reuse

Information on the terms and conditions for reusing the contents of this publication are at


The projections included in this issue of the Fiscal Monitor are based on the same database used for the April 2018 World Economic Outlook and Global Financial Stability Report (and are referred to as “IMF staff projections”). Fiscal projections refer to the general government, unless otherwise indicated. Short-term projections are based on officially announced budgets, adjusted for differences between the national authorities and the IMF staff regarding macroeconomic assumptions. The medium-term fiscal projections incorporate policy measures that are judged by the IMF staff as likely to be implemented. For countries supported by an IMF arrangement, the medium-term projections are those under the arrangement. In cases in which the IMF staff has insufficient information to assess the authorities’ budget intentions and prospects for policy implementation, an unchanged cyclically adjusted primary balance is assumed, unless indicated otherwise. Details on the composition of the groups, as well as country-specific assumptions, can be found in the Methodological and Statistical Appendix.

The Fiscal Monitor is prepared by the IMF Fiscal Affairs Department under the general guidance of Vitor Gaspar, Director of the Department. The project was directed by Abdelhak Senhadji, Deputy Director; and Catherine Pattillo, Assistant Director. The main authors of this issue are Laura Jaramillo Mayor (team leader), Paolo Dudine, Klaus Hellwig, Raphael Lam, Victor Duarte Lledó, and Elif Ture for Chapter 1, which also benefited from contributions by Kyungla Chae, Ruud De Mooij, Michael Keen, Alexander Klemm, Paolo Mauro, Samba Mbaye, Marialuz Moreno Badia, Adrian Peralta-Alva, and Victoria Perry; Geneviève Verdier (team leader), Aqib Aslam, Maria Coelho, Emine Hanedar, João Jalles, Emmanouil Kitsios, Raphael Lam, Adrian Peralta-Alva, and Delphine Prady for Chapter 2, which also benefited from contributions from Ruud De Mooij, Martin Grote, Michael Keen, Toni Matsudeira, Florian Misch, Alpa Shah, and Mick Tackray. Excellent research contributions were provided by Mark Albertson, Kyungla Chae, and Young Kim. The Methodological and Statistical Appendix was prepared by Young Kim. Nadia Malikyar and Erin Yiu provided excellent coordination and editorial support. Linda Kean from the Communications Department led the editorial team and managed the report’s production, with production assistance from Rumit Pancholi and editorial assistance from Lorraine Coffey, Susan Graham, Lucy Scott Morales, Nancy Morrison, and Vector Talent Resources.

Inputs, comments, and suggestions were received from other departments in the IMF, including area departments—namely, the African Department, Asia and Pacific Department, European Department, Middle East and Central Asia Department, and Western Hemisphere Department—as well as the Communications Department, Institute for Capacity Development, Legal Department, Monetary and Capital Markets Department, Research Department, Secretary’s Department, Statistics Department, and Strategy, Policy, and Review Department. The Fiscal Monitor also benefited from comments by Matthew Salomon (Global Financial Integrity); Eric Toder (Tax Policy Center); Catherine Tucker (MIT); and Rita Almeida, Rajul Awasthi, Cem Dener, Zahid Hasnain, Philippe Leite, and Kee Hiau Looi (all World Bank). Both projections and policy considerations are those of the IMF staff and should not be attributed to Executive Directors or to their national authorities.

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