Front Matter

Front Matter

International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
Published Date:
October 2015
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World Economic and Financial Surveys

Fiscal Monitor

October 2015

The Commodities Roller Coaster

A Fiscal Framework for Uncertain Times

©2015 International Monetary Fund

Cover: IMF Multimedia Services Division

Composition: AGS

Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Fiscal monitor—Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund, 2009–

v. ; cm.—(World economic and financial surveys, 0258-7440)

Twice a year.

Some issues have also thematic titles.

1. Finance, Public—Periodicals. 2. Finance, Public—Forecasting—Periodicals. 3. Fiscal policy—Periodicals. 4. Fiscal policy—Forecasting—Periodicals. 5. Financial crises—Periodicals. 6. Global Financial Crisis, 2008–2009—Periodicals. I. International Monetary Fund. II. Series: World economic and financial surveys.


Disclaimer: The Fiscal Monitor (FM) is a survey by the IMF staff published twice a year, in the spring and fall. The report analyzes the latest public finance developments, updates medium-term fiscal projections, and assesses policies to put public finances on a sustainable footing. The report was prepared by IMF staff and has benefited from comments and suggestions from Executive Directors following their discussion of the report on September 21, 2015. The views expressed in this publication are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Directors or their national authorities.

Recommended citation: International Monetary Fund, Fiscal Monitor—The Commodities Roller Coaster: A Fiscal Framework for Uncertain Times (Washington, October 2015).

ISBN: 978-1-51357-070-9 (paper)

ISBN: 978-1-51355-285-9 (ePub)

ISBN: 978-1-51355-263-7 (Mobipocket)

ISBN: 978-1-51354-676-6 (PDF)

Publication orders may be placed online, by fax, or through the mail:

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Assumptions and Conventions

The following symbols have been used throughout this publication:

… to indicate that data are not available

—to indicate that the figure is zero or less than half the final digit shown, or that the item does not exist

– between years or months (for example, 2008–09 or January–June) to indicate the years or months covered, including the beginning and ending years or months

/ between years (for example, 2008/09) to indicate a fiscal or financial year

“Billion” means a thousand million; “trillion” means a thousand billion.

“Basis points” refer to hundredths of 1 percentage point (for example, 25 basis points are equivalent to ¼ of 1 percentage point).

“n.a.” means “not applicable.”

Minor discrepancies between sums of constituent figures and totals are due to rounding.

As used in this publication, the term “country” does not in all cases refer to a territorial entity that is a state as understood by international law and practice. As used here, the term also covers some territorial entities that are not states but for which statistical data are maintained on a separate and independent basis.

Further Information and Data

This version of the Fiscal Monitor is available in full through the IMF eLibrary ( and the IMF website (

The data and analysis appearing in the Fiscal Monitor are compiled by the IMF staff at the time of publication. Every effort is made to ensure, but not guarantee, their timeliness, accuracy, and completeness. When errors are discovered, there is a concerted effort to correct them as appropriate and feasible. Corrections and revisions made after publication are incorporated into the electronic editions available from the IMF eLibrary ( and on the IMF website ( All substantive changes are listed in detail in the online tables of contents.

For details on the terms and conditions for usage of the contents of this publication, please refer to the IMF Copyright and Usage website,


The Fiscal Monitor is prepared by the IMF Fiscal Affairs Department under the supervision of Vitor Gaspar, Director of the Department; Christopher Towe, Deputy Director; and Benedict Clements, Division Chief. The main authors of this issue are Paulo Medas (team leader), Chadi Abdallah, Olivier Basdevant, Elva Bova, Paolo Dudine, David Gentry, Tom Josephs, Tigran Poghosyan, and Jasmin Sin. It also includes contributions from Jose Delgado, Mark Lutz, Cameron McLoughlin, Diego Mesa Puyo, Randa Sab, Gonzalo Salinas, Marika Santoro, and Fabian Valencia. Exceptional research assistance was provided by Juan Farah Yacoub and Tafadzwa Mahlanganise. The methodological and statistical appendix was prepared by Younghun Kim under the supervision of Marta Ruiz-Arranz. Jeffrey Pichocki provided outstanding administrative and editorial support. From the IMF Communications Department, Gemma Diaz and Linda Kean edited the issue, and Gemma Diaz managed its production.

Inputs, comments, and suggestions were received from other departments in the IMF, including area departments—namely, the African Department, Asia and Pacific Department, European Department, Middle East and Central Asia Department, and Western Hemisphere Department—as well as the Institute for Capacity Development, Monetary and Capital Markets Department, Research Department, Statistics Department, and Strategy, Policy, and Review Department. Both projections and policy considerations are those of the IMF staff and should not be attributed to Executive Directors or to their national authorities.

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