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Back Matter

Back Matter

Christina Kolerus, Aleksandra Zdzienicka, Ermal Hitaj, and Douglas Shapiro
Published Date:
October 2013
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    The WAEMU is a currency and economic union of Benin, Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea Bissau, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo.

    The authors of this chapter are Aleksandra Zdzienicka and Christina Kolerus.

    Business cycle synchronization measures for WAEMU countries are obtained by: (i) de-trending the series of real GDP using a Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter with a smoothness parameter equal to 1 (Rand and Tarp 2002), and (ii) computing the correlation between the country’s cyclical component and the WAEMU’s cyclical component.

    Similar analysis shows a higher symmetry of demand shocks in the WAEMU.

    The impact of monetary policy measures is identified by estimating panel regression equations of the changes in the monetary policy rate on private sector credit up to four quarters ahead.

    A relative contribution of each channel can vary in function of data coverage.

    Ermal Hitaj is the author of this chapter.

    Migration and Remittance Factbook 2011, World Bank.

    The United Nations Refugee Agency estimates the number of Malian refugees in Burkina Faso at 38,000 as of December 2012. This figure is a significant downward revision from their earlier estimate of 107,000, which was based on self-declaration by heads of refugee households. The new estimate was based on a biometric registration of all refugees, and a precise headcount of incoming refugees.

    Senhadji (Senhadji, A., 1998, “Time Series Estimation of Structural Impact Damand Equations: A Cross-country Analysis,” IMF Staff Papers, Vol. 45 [2].) estimates average short-run and long-run income elasticity of imports at 0.45 and 1.45, respectively. This chapter conservatively assumes a rapid reaction of Malian import demand to income changes.

    A 2 percent decline in GDP is predicated on a similar drop in services and industrial production as in 2012, and a lower growth in the primary sector.

    This chapter was prepared by Ermal Hitaj.

    The authors of this chapter are Aleksandra Zdzienicka and Christina Kolerus.

    E. Dabla-Norris, J. I. Kim, and K. Shorono, 2011, “Optimal Precautionary Reserves for Low-Income Countries: A Cost-Benefits Analysis,” IMF WP 11/249 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

    See last year’s report for more detail (IMF Country Report no. 12/59, March 2012).

    Douglas Shapiro is the author of this chapter.

    Benin actually recorded an improvement. Burkina Faso and Mali incurred rating changes during that period, but are back to the rating they had in 2006 or 2007.

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