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Back Matter

Back Matter

Author(s):
Olivier Basdevant, and Borislava Mircheva
Published Date:
February 2013
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References

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1

The fiscal year in Swaziland runs from April 1 to March 31 of the following year.

2

Taken from IMF Direction of Trade (http://www2.imfstatistics.org/DOT/) and World Economic Outlook. Data are calibrated for 2007, i.e., before the global financial crisis, because these data are expected to be closer to their equilibrium value.

3

The revenue pool largely consists of revenue from customs duties and, to a lesser degree, excise taxes. The pool is managed by South Africa.

4

Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, and Swaziland.

5

The fiscal year runs from April 1st to March 30th of the following calendar year.

6

Numerous factors play in favor of such an expectation: the 2012 numbers are based on overly optimistic projections and are likely to lead to repayments in 2013; the global economy is not projected to exhibit strong growth in the years to come; and the revenue sharing formula, currently under discussion, could lead to a further decline over the medium term (see Basdevant and others, 2011, for a deeper analysis).

7

Depending on the CGER approach used.

8

The REER assessment was carried out using IMF CGER methodology (Lee and others, 2008; Vitek, 2012).

9

2012 estimates are not yet available and would in any case distort the analysis owing to the one-off effect of the windfall SACU revenue.

11

The estimation employs a panel data set covering 184 economies from 1973 through 2010 (Vitek, 2012; Aydin, 2010) and considers the following macroeconomic variables: fiscal balance, old-age dependency, population growth, per capita income, growth, oil balance, and initial NFA.

12

The elasticity is calculated using Swaziland’s export and import shares in GDP and export and import volume elasticities derived in Isard and Faruqee (1998).

13

The Global Competitiveness Indicators report (http://www.weforum.org/issues/global-competitiveness/index.html) ranks Swaziland in 134th place out of 142 evaluated countries, and the World Bank Doing Business Indicator ranks it at 124th out of 183 countries (http://www.doingbusiness.org/rankings).

14

Details on the definition of the IIP and guidelines for data compilation are available via the Internet: http://www.imf.org/external/np/sta/iip/iip.htm.

15

It is generally considered that a ratio of return on assets above 2 and a ratio of return on equity above 20 indicate profitability.

16

Numbers as of December 2011.

17

The data used are monetary statistics, the International Investment Position (IIP), and government debt data, as reported by the authorities to the IMF. The latest IIP available is for 2010, and the 2011 estimates were derived using the preliminary estimates for the 2011 balance of payments. Data on 2010 public debt is still being finalized, but a rough decomposition of public debt in domestic and foreign currency is available.

18

The BSA is based on a matrix of financial assets and liabilities of four sectors of the economy: the government, the financial sector (including the central bank), the private sector, and the rest of the world (external sector). By construction, the sum of all the net positions of each sector is equal to zero.

19

The parameters of the EVERS program have been adequately revised by the authorities. If implemented with a less generous contribution from the government, it could indeed generate the expected savings at an affordable cost.

20

The response of the current account balance follows the calibration done in Basdevant and others, 2011.

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