World Economic and Financial Surveys

Regional Economic Outlook

International Monetary Fund

©2018 International Monetary Fund

Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Names: International Monetary Fund.

Title: Regional economic outlook. Europe: domestic expansion running into external turbulence.

Other titles: Europe: domestic expansion running into external turbulence. | Domestic expansion running into external turbulence. | World economic and financial surveys.

Description: [Washington, DC] : International Monetary Fund, 2018. | Nov. 18. | Includes bibliographical references.

Identifiers: ISBN 9781484375402 (paper)

Subjects: LCSH: Economic development—Europe. | Economic forecasting—Europe. | Banks and banking—Europe.

Classification: LCC HC240.R44 2018

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Contents

• Executive Summary
• 1. Domestic Expansion Running into External Turbulence
  • The Pace of Economic Expansion Has Slowed in Many European Economies
  • Several Headwinds Are at Play
  • Outlook: Slower but Above Potential Growth with Increased Downside Risks
  • Policy Priorities
  • References
• 2. Macroprudential Policies and House Prices in Europe: An Overview of Recent Experiences
  • Macroprudential Measures in European Countries
  • What We Learned from Country Experiences
  • Impact on Riskier Mortgages
  • Impact on House Prices and Credit Growth
  • Further Considerations for Effectiveness: Circumvention and Interaction with Other Policies
  • Conclusions and Policy Lessons
  • References
• Boxes
  • 2.1 The Impact of MaPPs in Norway and Sweden—Counterfactual Analyses
• Figures
  • 1.1 Private Sector Consumer Confidence and New Orders
  • 1.2 Global Trade and Foreign Demand
  • 1.3 Terms-of-Trade Windfall Gains and Losses, 2018–19
  • 1.4 Factors Limiting Production
  • 1.5 Euro Area Industrial Activity—The Top Five Longest Expansion Periods since 1997
  • 1.6 Real GDP Growth: Contributions and Forecast Revisions
  • 1.7 Global Value Chains
  • 2.1 Real House Price Index
  • 2.2 Household Debt
  • 2.3 Household Credit Growth
  • 2.4 Adoption of Macroprudential Measures by Region
  • 2.5 Number of Measures and Change in Household Credit
  • 2.6 Number of Measures and Change in House Prices
  • 2.7 Policy Objectives
  • 2.8 Adoption of Key Macroprudential Measures
  • 2.9 Share of High LTV Loans in Selected Countries
  • 2.10 MaPPs, Household Credit Growth, and House Prices in Select Countries
  • 2.1.1 The Impact of MaPPs on Household Credit Growth in Norway, and Sweden— Counterfactual Analyses
• Tables
  • Annex Table 1.1. GDP Growth

Fall 2018 Regional Economic Outlook: Europe

Europe: Country Groups

Note: The boundaries, colors, denominations, and any other information shown on the maps do not imply, on the part of the International Monetary Fund, any judgment on the legal status of any territory or any endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. In this report, statistical data on Crimea and the city of Sevastopol are included as part of the data for Russia. EU = European Union.