Back Matter

Back Matter

Author(s):
Valerio Crispolti, Era Dabla-Norris, Jun Kim, Kazuko Shirono, and George Tsibouris
Published Date:
March 2013
    Share
    • ShareShare
    Show Summary Details
    References

    Index

    [Page numbers followed by f, n or t refer to figures, footnotes or tables, respectively.]

    A

    Absorption

    • crisis definition, 27–28

    • historical patterns in LICs, 44–46t

    • loss regression, 31t, 33, 60, 62t

    • reserve coverage effects on shock outcomes, 14, 18f, 31-32, 33, 37, 60, 62t

    • role of reserve holdings, 37

    • See also Crisis

    Advanced and emerging markets

    • cost of holding reserves, 25

    • reserve accumulation trends, 20, 20f

    • shock risk in, 3, 25

    Agriculture sector, 3, 4f

    Aid. See Foreign direct investment and aid

    B

    Broad money coverage, 20–21, 23

    C

    Climatic shocks

    • definition, 38

    • geographical distribution, 9

    • in island economies, 12

    • outcomes, 9, 12, 12f, 42t, 47–49t, 50–55f

    • reserve coverage effects in mediating, 54–55f

    • risk, 8

    Commodity-exporting and -importing countries

    • effectiveness of reserves in mediating shock effects in, 16, 17–19, 18f, 43, 43f, 54–55f

    • reserve adequacy in, 34

    • reserve coverage trends, 23, 23t

    • shock outcomes in, 12, 1, 9, 9n, 13, 37, 47–48t, 50–51f, 52–53f, 57t

    Consumption

    • crisis conditions, 28, 28t

    • effects of recent global financial crisis, 16–19, 17f, 18f

    • historical patterns in LICs, 44–46t

    • loss regression, 62t

    • outcomes of shocks in LICs, 6, 6f, 9, 12, 13f, 16f, 50–51f

    • probability, 61t

    • reserve coverage effects on shock outcomes, 14, 14f, 16, 18f, 54–55f

    Cost of external shocks

    • absorption losses, 31t, 31-32, 33, 37, 60, 62t

    • event study analysis, 7–8, 7n, 8f

    • modeling methodology, 2, 25–28

    • output losses, 5, 6f

    • reserve depletion, 9, 15f

    • structural characteristics of country and, 1, 2, 7, 8, 9, 11f, 12, 15f, 16, 16f, 37

    • by type of shock, 12f, 37, 41f, 42f, 47–49t, 50–55f

    • welfare losses, 6

    • See also Growth outcomes of shocks

    Country Policy and Institutional Assessment, 28, 28n.

    • See also Policy and institutional quality

    Crisis

    • definition, 27–28

    • determinants of absorption loss severity, 31–32

    • growth rate outcomes, 28t

    • probability factors, 28–30, 29t, 30f, 30t

    E

    East Asia, 9

    Eastern Europe, 9

    Emerging markets. See Advanced

    • and emerging markets

    Event study analysis, 7–8, 38

    • robustness, 41–43, 60, 60t

    Exchange rate policies

    • consumption drop probability and, 61t

    • crisis probability and, 28–30, 30f, 30t

    • crisis severity and, 31–32, 31t

    • data sources, 8n, 38, 58

    • reserve accumulation trends and, 21, 22f, 23

    • reserve adequacy and, 2, 16, 21, 34, 35f, 36, 54f

    • shock effects and, 1, 2, 6, 7, 8, 9, 12, 13, 16, 37, 47t, 50f, 52f, 54f

    External-demand shocks

    • data sources, 38

    • definition, 7

    • outcomes, 9, 12, 12f, 13f, 16f, 41f, 42f, 42t, 43f, 47–49t, 50–55f

    • reserve coverage effects in mediating, 13, 14, 14f, 15f, 54–55f

    • size and severity, 27f

    External shocks, generally

    • data sources, 38, 58

    • definition, 7, 7f, 7n, 26–27, 41

    • forms of, 3, 3t, 7, 26, 27f. See also specific form

    • frequency, 3, 3t, 8–9, 9t, 10t, 42t

    • geographic distribution, 9, 10t

    • probability modeling, 25–26

    • size and severity, 9, 9t, 10t, 27f, 42t

    • trends, 4–5

    • vulnerability of low-income countries, 1, 3–5, 37

    • See also Costs of external shocks

    F

    Foreign direct investment and aid

    • absorption loss mitigation in shocks from, 31, 31t

    • data sources, 38

    • frequency of shocks to, 8, 9

    • geographic distribution of shocks to, 9

    • historical patterns in LICs, 44–46t

    • outcomes of shocks in, 9, 12, 12f, 42t, 47–49t, 50–55f

    • reserve coverage effects in mediating shocks to, 13, 14, 54–55f

    • size and severity of shocks, 9, 27f

    • vulnerability of LICs to shocks in, 25

    Fragile states, reserve adequacy in, 2, 33, 34, 36

    G

    Global financial crisis (2007–10), 4, 7, 16–19

    Globalization, 4–5, 5f

    Government debt

    • cost of shock and, 37

    • crisis probability and, 28, 29, 30t

    • data sources, 40

    • historical patterns in LICs, 44–46t

    Growth outcomes of shocks

    • crisis probability, 28

    • data sources, 38–40, 58

    • effects of recent global financial crisis, 16–19, 17f, 18f

    • event study analysis, 7–8, 7n

    • loss regression, 62–63t

    • macroeconomic volatility and, 6, 6f, 9–13, 11f, 37

    • mechanism, 5–6

    • positive shocks, 4, 5

    • reserve coverage effects, 13–14, 14f, 18f

    • by shock type, 12f, 50–55f

    • structural characteristics of country and, 12, 13f, 16f

    H

    Heavily-indebted LICs

    • definition, 9n

    • reserve coverage effects in mediating shocks in, 16, 17–19, 18f, 55f

    • shock outcomes, 49t, 51f, 53f, 58t

    I

    International Monetary Fund programs

    • consumption drop probability and, 61t

    • crisis probability in countries with, 28–29, 30f, 30t

    • data sources, 38, 60

    • reserve adequacy in countries with, 34

    • reserve coverage effects in mediating shocks in countries with, 55f

    • SDR allocations, 17, 36, 56t

    • shock outcomes in countries with, 2, 8n, 9, 12, 13, 16, 17–19, 18f, 49t, 51f, 53f, 58t

    International reserves

    • costs of recent global financial crisis, 16–17, 17f

    • data sources, 58

    • effects of shocks on, 9, 15f, 16, 16f

    • historical patterns in LICs, 44–46t

    • nonprecautionary role, 1n

    • opportunity cost of, 6, 21–23, 25

    • rationale for holding, 1, 6, 13, 25, 37

    • as self-insurance, 26

    • See also Reserve adequacy

    Investment

    • effects of shocks, 5–6

    • historical patterns in LICs, 44–46t

    • in mediating shock effects, 14

    • reserve coverage effects on shock outcomes, 17, 18f

    • See also Foreign direct investment and aid

    Island countries

    • reserve coverage effects in mediating shocks in, 16, 17, 18f, 55f

    • shock outcomes in, 1, 9, 12, 13, 48t, 51f, 53f, 57t

    L

    Latin America, 9

    LICs. See Low income countries

    Low income countries (LICs)

    • cost of reserve holding, 25

    • definition, 1

    • effects of global financial crisis, 16–19

    • global integration, 4–5, 5f

    • list of, 38–40t

    • macroeconomic volatility, 6, 6f, 44–46t

    • reserve coverage trends, 20–21, 23–24, 23t, 24f

    • structural characteristics of, 38–40t

    • vulnerability to external shocks, 1, 2, 3–5, 25, 37

    • See also Cost of external shocks; Heavily-indebted LICs

    M

    Macroeconomic functioning

    • historical patterns in LICs, 44–46t

    • shock impacts, 6, 6f, 9–13, 11f, 37, 43f, 47–49t, 57–58t

    Market concentration, 4f

    Middle East, 9

    N

    Natural disasters, 3

    Net benefit of holding reserves, 25–26

    O

    Oil-exporting countries

    • list of, 38–40t

    • reserve coverage effects in mediating shocks in, 54f

    • reserve coverage trends, 21, 22f

    • shock outcomes in, 48t, 50f, 52f, 57t

    P

    Policy and institutional quality

    • crisis probability and, 28, 29, 30t

    • data sources, 58

    • reserve adequacy and, 34–35, 35f

    Political shocks. See Socio-political shocks

    Positive shocks

    • government spending and, 4

    • growth outcomes, 5

    Pre-shock trends, 8n, 37

    R

    Reserve adequacy

    • assessment methodology, 1–2, 7–8, 25–28, 33–34, 38–40

    • consumption drop probability and, 61t

    • cost of holding reserves in assessment of, 33, 34

    • crisis probability and, 28–30, 29t, 30f, 30t

    • crisis severity and, 31, 31t

    • demand modeling for calculation of, 21–23

    • effectiveness in mediating shock outcomes, 13–14, 14f, 54–55f, 57–58t

    • effects of global financial crisis mediated by, 17

    • import coverage, 1, 2, 13, 14, 16, 17, 20–21, 34, 37

    • recent trends, 20–21, 20f, 22f, 23–24, 23t

    • regional comparison, 23–24, 24f

    • research findings, 1, 2, 34–36, 37

    • structural characteristics of economy as factor in, 17–19, 18f, 34–36, 43f

    • See also International reserves, generally

    S

    Shocks. See Cost of external shocks; External shocks, generally

    Socio-political shocks, 3, 6

    Sub-Saharan Africa, 5, 9, 21

    T

    Terms-of-trade shocks

    • absorption loss mitigation, 31, 31t

    • data sources, 38

    • definition, 7

    • frequency, 3, 8–9

    • global distribution, 4f

    • outcomes, 9, 11f, 12, 12f, 16f, 37, 41f, 42f, 42t, 43f, 47–49t, 50–55f

    • reserve coverage effects in mediating, 14, 14f, 15f, 16, 54–55f

    • size and severity, 27, 27f

    Trade

    • export concentration, 4f

    • import coverage of reserves, 1, 2

    • outcomes of recent global financial crisis in external balances, 16

    • sources of vulnerability to shocks, 3–4, 4f

    • See also Commodity-exporting and -importing countries; External demand shocks; Terms-of-trade shocks

      You are not logged in and do not have access to this content. Please login or, to subscribe to IMF eLibrary, please click here

      Other Resources Citing This Publication