Appendix Capital Flight and Capital Controls
- Liliana Rojas-Suárez, and Donald Mathieson
- Published Date:
- March 1993
Letting wt equal stock of wealth at time t, then the analysis in the main text suggests that desired holdings of domestic (DA) and foreign (CF) assets will be given by
where d denotes the desired proportion and v is the vector of expected returns and risks associated with domestic and external assets.
In the presence of capital controls, it may take time for domestic residents to shift from domestic to external assets when, for example, the risks associated with holding domestic assets increase. A simple stock adjustment model can allow for this possibility. Thus,
The stock of broad money (M2) is used as a proxy for the stock of domestic assets. To the extent that other domestic assets can escape the inflation tax or expropriation risk, then using M2 could bias the results. In particular, if domestic residents were to substitute M2 assets for other domestic assets that were either insulated from the inflation tax or free from expropriation risk, the ratio CF/M2 would rise even if no foreign assets were accumulated. However, the limited domestic financial markets of the countries in the sample typically do not offer a broad range of financial instruments that constitute good inflation hedges; nor are they free from expropriation risk. As a result, a rise in expropriation risk is likely to entail a portfolio substitution away from all domestic financial instruments toward external assets. In this situation, the ratio CF/M2 will represent the general flight to external assets.
Equation (3) was estimated in levels with the lagged ratio (CF/M2)t–1 on the right-hand side (with coefficient 1-λ). In addition, different future (time t+1), current, and lagged values of the government deficit and risk variables were employed to gauge the factors influencing expectations regarding fundamentals. In all cases, the estimated λs were not statistically different from one, implying that portfolios were adjusted within the year. The coefficients on most of the future and lagged values of the fundamentals proved to be statistically insignificant; thus, equations (4) and (5) report only the most significant current and lagged values of the fundamentals for the two groups.
R2 = 0.96
R2 = 0.96
where the values in parenthesis represent f-statistics. The constant terms consist of a general intercept term and a dummy variable for all but one of the countries. Equation (4) corresponds to the set of countries with modest or significantly reduced capital controls, and equation (5) corresponds to the set of countries with extensive or tightened capital controls. Using the sample means for each group’s variables, the elasticities of the capital flight variable with respect to the risk and deficit variables are .44 and .36, respectively, for the countries with less restrictive capital controls, and .13 and .51, respectively, for the countries with highly restrictive capital controls.
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