Chapter

Statistical Appendix

Author(s):
F. Rozwadowski, Siddharth Tiwari, David Robinson, and Susan Schadler
Published Date:
June 1993
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Table A1.Basic Indicators Prior to SAF/ESAF Period(Annual average during the three years preceding first SAF- or ESAF-supported program unless otherwise noted)
Summary Indicators

(Percent change)
Financial Flows

(In percent of GDP)
External Sector

(In percent of exports except Reserves column)
Population growth (1980–90)GDP growthExport volume growthImport volume growthInflation (CPI)Terms of tradeReal effective exchange rateInvestmentSavingExternal current account1Fiscal balance1External debt2Debt serviceContractual less actual debt serviceOfficial inflows3Reserves4
Bangladesh2.34.25.05.910.25.2–1.312.24.8–7.3–8.0492.827.4101.42.5
Bolivia2.5–1.10.64.4664.0–10.0–16.88.54.5–7.6–11.5522.984.358.166.08.4
Burundi2.84.66.1–5.18.711.01.816.71.7–15.4–14.1351.618.7163.01.4
Gambia, The3.4–1.012.7–9.123.9–1.8–1.219.816.3–17.6–11.8373.18.423.761.20.2
Ghana3.46.310.316.924.311.4–45.18.78.7–3.5–4.3331.245.6–13.285.12.2
Guinea52.414.111.4–5.6–7.4305.327.63.674.81.1
Guyana–0.1–1.7–8.5–15.550.6–2.0–20.124.411.5–31.4–47.3903.4106.872.2101.40.9
Kenya3.85.52.65.88.4–7.4–7.024.017.7–4.6–6.6239.230.228.31.7
Lesotho2.71.415.03.712.3–2.024.523.5–17.3–14.351.64.735.61.2
Madagascar3.01.6–2.5–8.412.51.3–6.58.7–0.9–8.9–4.4663.771.547.8122.34.6
Malawi3.42.0–0.1–0.718.7–7.2–5.915.48.9–6.3–10.8345.032.75.949.41.8
Mauritania2.41.12.43.09.89.1–7.223.96.1–31.5–8.3327.938.314.880.61.2
Mozambique2.6–3.4–19.0–0.834.010.024.38.3–0.6–15.31,815.6291.3278.3380.41.6
Niger3.36.2–4.9–9.8–0.5–2.6–4.214.37.0–11.3–9.3294.651.217.1101.15.5
Senegal2.90.8–2.31.711.66.16.314.82.6–15.5–4.8270.726.08.953.7
Sri Lanka1.43.61.8–2.05.7–7.5–12.723.614.5–9.1–11.7224.826.624.41.6
Tanzania3.13.55.8–2.032.9–15.5–38.522.5–8.0567.659.635.4208.60.6
Togo3.52.76.512.10.7–3.61.025.714.7–13.4–8.0211.730.09.439.87.3
Uganda2.50.8179.319.52.7–3.6–6.4272.544.10.549.41.0
Mean2.72.11.961.5–0.2–6.416.58.5–12.5–10.9450.853.929.696.12.4
Median2.81.82.4–0.712.4–0.6–5.115.47.9–10.2–8.2331.232.78.974.81.6
Sources: World Bank, World Development Report, various issues; and IMF staff estimates.

Excludes official transfers. Fiscal balance is for central government only.

Medium- and long-term external public debt at end of the year preceding the first SAF/ESAF arrangement.

Disbursements of official loans and grants, including rescheduling and use of IMF resources.

Reserves in months of imports during the year prior to the first SAF- or ESAF-supported program.

Data available only for year immediately preceding SAF.

Sources: World Bank, World Development Report, various issues; and IMF staff estimates.

Excludes official transfers. Fiscal balance is for central government only.

Medium- and long-term external public debt at end of the year preceding the first SAF/ESAF arrangement.

Disbursements of official loans and grants, including rescheduling and use of IMF resources.

Reserves in months of imports during the year prior to the first SAF- or ESAF-supported program.

Data available only for year immediately preceding SAF.

Table A2.Fiscal and Monetary Indicators Prior to SAF/ESAF Period(Annual averages during the three years preceding first SAF- or ESAF-supported program)
Monetary Survey
Central Government Budget

(In percent of GDP)
Net domestic assetsBroad moneyNet domestic assetsNet credit to public sector2Broad moneyInflation and Interest Rates
Expenditures
Revenues1TaxesTotalCurrentCapitalOverall balance1(Annual change in percent of GDP)(Annual change in percent of initial stock of broad money)CPI (In percent)Real interest rate3 (In percent)
Bangladesh8.77.016.77.68.1–8.04.75.225.27.328.310.24.6
Bolivia10.13.421.319.71.6–11.212.88.7664.013.2
Burundi16.912.527.311.615.7–10.41.82.312.310.815.98.76.0
Gambia, The24.311.731.820.011.4–7.19.43.742.320.519.823.9–21.5
Ghana12.49.415.210.64.7–2.96.45.970.430.561.724.3–8.7
Guinea415.01.520.513.07.5–5.55.23.040.7–0.489.728.3–31.4
Guyana39.433.584.570.714.2–45.136.636.548.147.447.850.6–43.8
Kenya24.120.129.322.66.7–5.25.04.319.313.216.78.43.6
Lesotho23.216.733.519.414.1–10.34.71.275.863.821.512.31.2
Madagascar14.610.318.412.06.5–3.84.53.127.80.418.312.5–1.5
Malawi24.016.731.822.87.7–8.22.33.216.520.819.518.74.1
Mauritania28.519.432.3–5.94.63.022.9–3.814.09.83.9
Mozambique18.011.233.124.68.5–15.18.89.314.426.315.434.0–54.4
Niger16.39.020.511.49.3–4.2–1.00.5–5.60.84.9–0.515.2
Senegal19.916.823.419.63.3–3.52.70.711.06.33.011.66.4
Sri Lanka23.618.033.220.212.1–9.54.13.513.67.311.55.77.3
Tanzania18.015.124.018.75.3–6.032.911.0
Togo31.021.335.423.012.0–4.34.23.49.52.37.70.713.5
Uganda6.35.312.08.63.4–5.728.012.2356.182.5176.7179.3–58.5
Mean19.713.628.619.88.5–9.08.16.147.119.831.859.8
Median18.012.527.319.57.9–6.04.73.524.19.118.912.5
Source: IMF staff estimates.

Including grants.

Domestic banking system credit to government and nonfinancial public enterprises.

Commercial bank loan rate during pre-SAF year deflated by the CPI inflation of the same year. The loan rate is either a weighted average or the midpoint in the range of loan rates.

Data exist only for one pre-SAF year.

Source: IMF staff estimates.

Including grants.

Domestic banking system credit to government and nonfinancial public enterprises.

Commercial bank loan rate during pre-SAF year deflated by the CPI inflation of the same year. The loan rate is either a weighted average or the midpoint in the range of loan rates.

Data exist only for one pre-SAF year.

Table A3.Price Controls, Marketing Boards, and Trade Monopolies Prior to SAF/ESAF Period
State-Controlled Exports1 (In percent of exports)State Involvement in Imports and Nontraded Goods2
BangladeshJute (51%)Fertilizer subsidized. Food grains subsidized.
BoliviaNone (0%)Petroleum price set below world market price.
BurundiCoffee (84%)Retail prices administered.
Gambia, TheGroundnuts (82%)Monopoly for rice imports. Fertilizer, agricultural inputs subsidized. Petroleum, electricity prices administered.
GhanaCocoa (67%)Some prices controlled.
GuineaCoffee, palm oil (4%)Petroleum product prices controlled. Rice producer price set as a reference price.
GuyanaSugar, rice (45%)Prices of petroleum products, transportation, margarine, and powdered milk controlled.
KenyaGrains, coffee, tea (48%)Cereals, dairy, and meat under marketing boards. Extensive price controls.
LesothoNone (0%)Producer prices for five main foodcrops set by marketing board.
MadagascarCloves, coffee, vanilla, pepper (73%)Price and profit margin ceilings set for ten commodities.
MalawiTobacco, cotton, groundnuts (64%)Fertilizer subsidized. Maize, rice under marketing board. Prices of sugar, petrol products, low-grade meat, and spare parts controlled.
MauritaniaNone (0%)Petroleum products set low. Cereals, rice, tea, and sugar imported by marketing board.
MozambiqueAll (100%)State administered price system. Producer prices set low.
NigerNone (0%)Cereals marketing board pricing by tender. Monopoly for petroleum imports. Profit margin ceilings set on 64 imports. Price ceilings on flour, petroleum, bread, salt, water, electricity, and transportation.
SenegalGroundnuts, cotton (12%)Prices set for petroleum products. Producer prices set for rice and other cereals. Sugar subsidized.
Sri LankaTea, rubber (33%)Petroleum, fertilizer, wheat, and some agricultural products monopolized.
TanzaniaCoffee, cotton, sisal, tea (70%)Prices of fertilizer and other imported agricultural inputs controlled. Prices of 47 foods and consumer goods controlled.
TogoCocoa, coffee, cotton (30%)Food grain producer prices set.
UgandaTea, cotton, coffee, tobacco (86%)Petroleum products subsidized. Foodstuffs under produce marketing board.

Commodities exported by state monopoly that sets producer prices.

State involvement in setting producer or consumer prices via state trading companies and price controls.

Commodities exported by state monopoly that sets producer prices.

State involvement in setting producer or consumer prices via state trading companies and price controls.

Table A4.Exchange and Trade System Prior to First SAF or ESAF Arrangement(In percent unless otherwise noted)
External Sector

Performance
Country (Year)1Parallel Market PremiumExport volume2Import volume2Significant Features of Exchange and Trade System
I. Countries with comprehensive restrictions on current transactions
Guyana (1989)100–300–8.5–14.0Basket peg. Export retention—bauxite 100%, sugar 15%, others 10%. Import prohibitions. Licensing subject to foreign exchange availability. Sugar and bauxite monopolies.
Madagascar (1986)–2.5–7.9Basket peg. Comprehensive trade and payment restrictions. Export surrender. State-managed imports. Import monopoly for rice, wheat, and alcohol.
Mauritania (1986)140–1703.7–3.9Managed exchange rate. Export surrender. Import licensing. All imports approved by central bank. Iron ore export monopoly. Sugar, rice, and tea import monopolies.
Mozambique (1986)2,500–4,000–19.0–1.7Basket peg. Comprehensive restrictions. Limited export retention. Foreign exchange allocated administratively. Imports and exports licensed within foreign exchange budget.
Tanzania (1986)200–1.68.0Basket peg. Export retention of 10%—50%. Extensive licensing of imports and exports.
Uganda (1986)–4.77.3Peg to U.S. dollar. Comprehensive foreign exchange allocation through monthly foreign exchange budget. Export surrender. Export monopolies for main agricultural exports.
II. Countries with some restrictions on current transactions
Bangladesh (1985)9.55.05.9Basket peg. Secondary foreign exchange market with 54% premium, handles 43% of export receipts. Comprehensive trade restrictions.
Burundi (1985)6.1–5.1SDR peg. Coffee export monopoly. Export surrender. Import licenses require central bank approval—denied for many goods.
Ghana (1986)10011.016.2Dual rate. Cocoa receipts go to official market for government use. Other exports surrendered at weekly auction rate, available for imports or producer goods. Export retention 20%. Cocoa export monopoly.
Guinea 198620Dual rate including auction. No licensing but prior authorization for foreign exchange allocation. Mining sector imports outside auction system.
Kenya (1987)90–1002.65.8Basket peg. Extensive quotas. Exchange allocation licenses. Coffee export monopoly. Export surrender.
Malawi (1987)–0.1–1.2Basket peg. Foreign exchange surrender. Foreign exchange allocated by central bank with reference to a foreign exchange budget.
Sri Lanka (1987)1.8–2.0Adjustable peg. Import licenses for specified commodities including major food grains. Export quotas. Foreign exchange restriction on travel only.
III. Countries with no major restrictions on current transactions
Bolivia (1986)1.35.3–1.9Auction market. Few remaining restrictions. Uniform tariff of 20%.
Gambia, The (As of January 1986)3–12.5–3.7Floating interbank market. Open general license. Export monopolies on groundnuts, palm kernels, and cotton. Uniform 5% import tax.
Lesotho (1987)015.03.7Common monetary area and customs union.
Niger (1986)0–5.7–9.4CFA zone. Prior authorization for import of rice, sugar, wheat flour, some textiles.
Senegal (1985)0–1.01.8CFA zone. Some quantitative restrictions.
Togo (1987)04.111.6CFA zone. Export monopolies for phosphates and main agricultural exports. Import licenses, liberally administered, permit access to foreign exchange.
Sources: International Monetary Fund, Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions (Washington, International Monetary Fund). various issues.

Exchange restrictions at end-December of the indicated year except for The Gambia.

Average growth rates during three years preceding first SAF- or ESAF-supported program.

Sources: International Monetary Fund, Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions (Washington, International Monetary Fund). various issues.

Exchange restrictions at end-December of the indicated year except for The Gambia.

Average growth rates during three years preceding first SAF- or ESAF-supported program.

Table A5.Terms of Trade Developments During SAF/ESAF Period1(Annual average percent change)
Export Unit

Value
Import Unit

Value
Terms of

Trade
Uganda–19.62.2–21.3
Madagascar (SDR)–10.42.1–12.2
Burundi–5.24.9–9.6
Ghana–4.06.1–9.5
Niger (CFA)–6.01.6–7.4
Bolivia–3.53.7–6.8
Tanzania–0.94.6–5.3
Mozambique1.15.5–4.2
Kenya (SDR)–0.63.2–3.6
Guinea1.04.7–3.5
Guyana4.37.2–2.7
Mauritania (SDR)0.22.8–2.5
Sri Lanka1.93.1–1.4
Togo (CFA)1.12.3–1.2
Gambia, The (SDR)2.93.7–0.8
Malawi (SDR)5.74.71.0
Bangladesh3.32.31.0
Senegal (CFA)1.4–0.62.1
Minimum–19.6–0.6–21.3
Maximum5.77.22.1
Average (arithmetic)–1.53.5–4.9
Countries that experienced large TOT deterioration prior to programs21.73.8–2.1
Countries that experienced large TOT deterioration during programs3–4.74.1–8.4
Source: IMF staff estimates.

Import and export price changes measured in U.S. dollars unless another currency indicated in parentheses. Lesotho is excluded from the table because reliable data were not available.

The Gambia, Togo, Sri Lanka, Malawi, Kenya, and Tanzania.

Guinea, Mozambique, Burundi, Tanzania, Ghana, Kenya, Uganda, Madagascar, and Bolivia.

Source: IMF staff estimates.

Import and export price changes measured in U.S. dollars unless another currency indicated in parentheses. Lesotho is excluded from the table because reliable data were not available.

The Gambia, Togo, Sri Lanka, Malawi, Kenya, and Tanzania.

Guinea, Mozambique, Burundi, Tanzania, Ghana, Kenya, Uganda, Madagascar, and Bolivia.

Table A6.Export Prices of Key Commodities in SAF/ESAF Countries(Annual percent change in U.S. dollars unless otherwise noted)
CommodityExporting

Countries
198619871988198919901991Cumulative

Change During

1985–91
BauxiteGuinea, Guyana–4.97.0–0.3–14.70.910.9–3.2
CashewMozambique44.8–6.4–22.7–14.0–5.735.815.4
Cloves1Madagascar–7.216.6–22.2–11.91.2–13.1–34.8
CocoaGhana–8.3–3.4–20.7–21.62.1–5.9–47.1
CoffeeMadagascar, Burundi, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda22.3–31.1–6.9–20.0–27.6–9.1–58.7
CottonBurundi, Tanzania, Togo–20.056.2–15.119.58.8–6.928.4
FishMauritania, Senegal14.619.342.0–24.80.716.070.5
GarmentsBangladesh, Lesotho, Sri Lanka12.015.62.1–2.17.210.252.9
GoldGhana15.921.4–2.1–12.80.6–5.614.1
GroundnutsGambia, Senegal–37.1–12.118.231.124.4–7.2–1.1
Iron oreMauritania–3.51.45.912.816.28.146.8
JuteBangladesh–53.318.015.20.89.4–7.4–35.1
LivestockNiger–3.113.75.61.84.323.5
Manufactured productsMozambique17.711.96.0–0.99.31.954.1
PetroleumBolivia, Kenya–48.828.7–20.521.528.3–17.0–32.2
PhosphatesTogo1.2–9.616.113.3–0.74.925.4
PrawnsMozambique14.811.113.1–10.23.2–6.425.1
SugarGuyana48.811.550.025.5–2.3–28.0119.7
TeaBurundi, Malawi, Sri Lanka–2.5–11.44.712.31.0–9.4–7.1
TinBolivia–43.87.54.719.3–28.9–9.6–51.5
TobaccoMalawi, Tanzania–10.9–4.33.86.72.33.90.4
UraniumNiger29.712.5–4.9–15.3–4.5–11.9–1.1
VanillaMadagascar1.69–1.01.42.0–0.14.1
WoolLesotho–6.053.063.4–20.4–12.8–31.212.2
Source: IMF staff estimates.

Includes essence of cloves.

Source: IMF staff estimates.

Includes essence of cloves.

Table A7.Net Resource Transfer During SAF/ESAF Period1
Official LoansOfficial TransfersActual Debt-Service PaymentsTotal Net Resource Transfer
Year before SAFYear before ESAFLatest year2Year before SAFYear before ESAFLatest year2Year before SAFYear before ESAFLatest year2Year before SAFYear before ESAFLatest year2
(In millions of U.S. dollars)
Bangladesh8711,1101,1945467256704705515109471,2841,354
Bolivia3702123318210316023923128021385211
Burundi74888879164182293935123213235
Gambia, The7293234494913826403955
Ghana401562634118122222367562324153122532
Guinea1441942274210111079125152108170184
Guyana74767787192333
Kenya5257715611422572046085867205944245
Lesotho27667991174154101316108228218
Madagascar24420918911012511390158105264175197
Malawi1231713518511810640251
Mauritania1611217310792811198635149127120
Mozambique259225186173475502195219413648669
Niger1219620148137139120857514914884
Senegal228507331134209228195325174167391385
Sri Lanka490408579180176203517451491153133291
Tanzania24325221136353054925151148581631612
Togo8112170977587488532129111125
Uganda2203214474013121717116612589286539
Total4,4655,4245,4702,4883,7474,1333,1063,8933,4633,8475,2776,139
Average263285288146197218183205182226278323
(In percent of GDP)
Bangladesh655333322666
Bolivia1057223656524
Burundi68771515343111920
Gambia, The412101721151168201716
Ghana712102336125338
Guinea767233445666
Guyana32024332639114
Kenya797232879151
Lesotho467121714111142219
Madagascar797354364877
Malawi982985312
Mauritania19136131071493181310
Mozambique8171453738141125051
Niger641866643864
Senegal8116544773687
Sri Lanka10793331087324
Tanzania69791818155142220
Togo6948554621088
Uganda47141373342617
Source: IMF staff estimates.

Defined as all official loans and grants plus IMF purchases less actual debt-service payments made.

Calendar year 1991 or fiscal year 1991/92.

Source: IMF staff estimates.

Defined as all official loans and grants plus IMF purchases less actual debt-service payments made.

Calendar year 1991 or fiscal year 1991/92.

Table A8.Official Multilateral Debt Reschedulings for SAF/ESAF Countries
Terms Under Which Debt Rescheduled
Date of

Agreement
Consolidation

Period

(In months)
Standard

terms
Toronto

terms
Enhanced

concessions
BoliviaJuly 7, 198612
Nov. 14, 198815
Mar. 15, 199024
Jan. 24, 199218
Gambia, TheSep. 19, 198612
GuineaApr. 18, 198614
Apr. 12, 198912
Nov. 18, 199212
GuyanaMay 24, 198914
Sep. 12, 199035
MadagascarOct. 23, 198621
Oct. 28, 198821
July 10, 199013
MalawiApr. 22, 198814
MauritaniaMay 16, 198612
June 15, 198714
June 19, 198912
MozambiqueJune 16, 198719
June 14, 199030
NigerNov. 20, 198612
Apr. 21, 198813
Dec. 16, 198812
Sep. 18, 199028
SenegalNov. 21, 198616
Nov. 17, 198712
Jan. 24, 198914
Feb. 12, 199012
June 21, 199112
June 21, 199112
TanzaniaSep. 18, 198612
Dec. 13, 19886
Mar. 16, 199012
Jan. 21, 199230
TogoMar. 22, 198815
June 20, 198914
July 9, 199024
June 19, 199212
UgandaJune 19, 198712
Jan. 26, 198918
June 17, 199217
Table A9.Central Government Fiscal Profiles Over SAF/ESAF Period(In percent of GDP)
198319841985198619871988198919901991
Bangladesh1SAFESAF
Revenue8.28.99.18.99.09.19.29.511.0
Current8.28.99.18.99.09.19.29.511.0
Tax6.87.17.17.27.27.47.67.68.8
Grants
Expenditure17.316.316.617.316.116.416.816.316.3
Current7.77.67.51.18.18.68.68.68.8
Noninterest6.96.86.66.97.37.67.77.37.5
Interest0.80.80.90.80.81.00.91.31.3
Capital9.68.79.19.68.07.88.21.17.5
Primary current account1.32.12.52.01.71.51.52.23.5
Current account0.51.31.61.20.90.50.60.92.2
Overall balance
Overall balance (ex grants)–9.1–7.4–7.5–8.4–7.1–7.3–7.6–6.8–5.3
BoliviaSAFESAF
Revenue3.19.716.314.915.215.316.617.4
Current3.19.716.214.715.115.316.517.3
Tax2.92.84.46.88.18.39.09.2
Grants1.10.30.50.71.31.3
Expenditure23.721.418.719.220.820.420.220.6
Current22.319.517.217.818.116.917.418.0
Noninterest20.113.712.113.914.313.614.615.2
Interest2.25.85.13.93.83.32.82.8
Capital1.41.91.51.42.73.52.82.6
Primary current account–17.0–4.04.10.80.81.72.02.1
Current account–19.2–9.8–1.0–3.1–3.0–1.6–0.9–0.7
Overall balance–20.5–11.7–1.3–4.0–5.1–4.4–2.2–1.8
Overall balance (ex grants)–20.5–11.7–2.4–4.3–5.6–5.1–3.5–3.1
BurundiSAFESAF
Revenue12.514.113.216.013.615.018.215.716.8
Current12.514.113.216.013.615.018.215.716.8
Tax11.513.312.614.412.313.714.813.214.8
Grants3.64.03.53.54.02.47.08.38.3
Expenditure31.327.323.424.530.326.627.829.129.1
Current13.410.710.712.713.314.915.015.713.2
Noninterest12.69.48.810.711.312.812.813.911.7
Interest0.81.31.92.02.02.02.21.81.5
Capital17.916.612.711.817.011.712.813.415.9
Primary current account–0.14.74.35.32.32.25.41.85.1
Current account–0.93.42.53.30.30.13.20.03.6
Overall balance–15.2–9.2–6.8–5.0–12.8–9.2–2.7–5.1–4.0
Overall balance (ex grants)–18.8–13.2–10.2–8.5–16.7–11.6–9.6–13.4–12.4
Gambia, The1SAFESAF
Revenue20.719.019.622.120.423.221.719.820.9
Current20.719.019.322.120.222.921.419.320.7
Tax17.517.620.618.521.119.519.419.0
Grants4.34.15.410.59.65.96.45.45.0
Expenditure34.133.526.536.836.826.029.924.025.0
Current22.819.417.122.026.918.318.516.815.7
Noninterest20.015.613.616.922.813.914.412.912.3
Interest2.83.73.55.14.14.44.13.93.4
Capital11.414.29.414.89.97.711.47.29.3
Primary current account0.73.35.75.2–2.69.17.06.48.4
Current account–2.1–0.52.20.1–6.74.72.92.55.0
Overall balance–9.3–10.4–1.5–4.2–6.83.1–1.81.20.9
Overall balance (ex grants)–13.5–14.6–6.9–14.7–16.4–2.8–8.2–4.2–4.1
GhanaSAFESAF
Revenue5.58.011.213.714.113.513.612.515.0
Current5.58.011.213.714.113.513.612.515.0
Tax4.66.69.412.212.712.312.311.513.5
Grants0.10.81.22.22.62.63.23.23.2
Expenditure8.211.115.419.219.118.918.918.119.8
Current7.48.611.211.911.210.911.210.811.6
Noninterest5.67.39.79.79.89.89.99.49.8
Interest1.81.31.52.21.41.11.31.41.8
Capital0.82.54.27.37.98.07.77.38.2
Primary current account–0.10.71.54.04.33.73.73.15.2
Current account–1.9–0.61.82.92.62.41.73.4
Overall balance–2.7–1.8–2.20.10.50.40.70.21.6
Overall balance (ex grants)–2.7–2.1–2.7–0.7–0.3–0.7–0.8–1.30.1
GuineaSAFESAF
Revenue13.114.914.011.412.711.9
Current13.114.914.011.412.711.9
Tax1.52.23.23.74.25.4
Grants1.93.83.23.33.53.5
Expenditure20.522.623.720.322.119.9
Current13.013.213.110.710.710.5
Noninterest10.410.610.18.58.28.6
Interest2.62.53.12.22.51.9
Capital7.59.410.69.611.49.4
Primary current account2.74.33.92.94.53.3
Current account0.11.80.80.72.01.4
Overall balance–5.5–3.8–6.6–5.5–5.8–4.4
Overall balance (ex grants)–7.4–7.6–9.7–8.8–9.4–8.0
GuyanaESAF
Revenue43.832.839.738.740.740.2
Current43.732.839.738.740.740.2
Tax39.629.636.534.438.436.7
Grants1.12.91.42.84.71.2
Expenditure96.485.578.090.094.374.5
Current81.368.966.776.475.664.1
Noninterest38.834.235.333.529.625.9
Interest42.534.731.442.946.038.2
Capital15.016.611.313.618.710.4
Primary current account4.9–1.44.45.211.114.3
Current account–37.6–36.1–27.0–37.7–34.9–23.9
Overall balance–51.5–49.8–36.7–48.4–48.9–33.2
Overall balance (ex grants)–52.6–52.7–38.1–51.2–53.6–34.3
Kenya1SAFESAF
Revenues22.322.523.223.123.022.122.4
Current22.322.523.223.123.022.122.4
Tax19.520.020.719.819.319.219.5
Grants1.01.02.32.32.91.92.1
Expenditure29.330.228.430.230.630.527.8
Current23.622.221.923.122.523.121.0
Noninterest18.717.516.617.216.916.915.9
Interest4.94.75.35.95.66.25.1
Capital5.78.06.57.18.17.46.8
Primary current account3.65.06.65.96.15.26.5
Current account–1.30.31.30.00.5–1.01.4
Overall balance–6.0–6.6–2.9–4.8–4.8–6.4–3.3
Overall balance (ex grants)–7.0–7.6–5.2–7.1–7.6–8.4–5.4
Lesotho1 (in percent of GDP)SAFESAF
Revenue22.721.519.218.922.723.025.3
Current22.721.519.218.922.723.025.3
Tax20.018.716.716.719.220.221.9
Grants0.92.14.05.06.66.94.8
Expenditure29.830.533.533.233.731.430.7
Current20.521.619.419.718.816.719.7
Noninterest18.619.417.517.514.613.517.0
Interest1.92.21.92.24.23.22.7
Capital9.38.914.113.514.914.711.0
Primary current account4.12.11.71.48.19.58.3
Current account2.2–0.1–0.2–0.83.96.35.6
Overall balance–6.2–6.9–10.3–9.3–4.4–0.6–0.6
Overall balance (ex grants)–7.1–9.0–14.3–14.3–11.0–7.5–5.4
MadagascarSAFESAF
Revenue16.912.912.114.713.111.311.78.6
Current16.912.912.114.713.111.311.78.6
Tax11.710.09.311.010.58.89.46.9
Grants0.90.40.70.70.74.14.42.1
Expenditure21.817.216.218.717.120.717.016.6
Current13.911.210.811.710.211.09.19.9
Noninterest13.99.79.29.68.18.37.67.9
Interest0.01.51.62.12.12.71.52.0
Capital7.96.05.47.06.99.77.96.7
Primary current account3.03.22.95.15.03.04.10.7
Current account3.01.71.33.02.90.32.6–1.3
Overall balance–4.0–3.9–3.5–3.4–3.3–5.1–0.8–5.6
Overall balance (ex grants)–4.9–4.3–4.2–4.1–4.0–9.2–5.2–7.7
Malawi1ESAF
Revenue22.021.120.721.321.819.618.4
Current22.021.120.721.321.819.618.4
Tax17.916.816.017.918.516.616.3
Grants2.23.42.75.74.62.13.3
Expenditure32.034.230.428.729.525.723.8
Current22.824.022.719.921.619.917.4
Noninterest16.817.516.515.516.316.614.7
Interest6.06.56.24.45.33.32.7
Capital9.210.27.78.87.95.86.4
Primary current account5.23.64.25.85.53.03.7
Current account–0.8–2.9–2.01.40.2–0.31.0
Overall balance–7.8–9.6–7.0–1.6–2.0–4.6–3.0
Overall balance (ex grants)–10.0–13.0–9.7–7.3–6.6–6.7–6.3
MauritaniaSAFESAF
Revenue24.323.723.925.624.723.124.622.3
Current24.323.723.925.624.723.124.622.3
Tax18.519.719.018.118.417.518.316.6
Grants6.74.62.34.81.62.62.11.7
Expenditure42.133.128.936.736.141.336.829.4
Current24.722.421.421.621.120.521.422.0
Noninterest22.519.617.818.518.217.218.919.4
Interest2.22.83.63.13.03.22.62.6
Capital17.410.77.515.215.020.815.47.4
Primary current account1.84.16.17.16.65.95.72.9
Current account–0.41.32.44.03.62.63.10.3
Overall balance–10.7–4.5–2.4–3.3–6.1–8.0–5.7–4.1
Overall balance (ex grants)–17.5–9.1–4.8–8.1–7.7–10.6–7.8–5.8
MozambiqueSAFESAF
Revenue20.713.113.316.019.923.422.323.5
Current20.713.113.316.019.923.422.323.5
Tax15.09.19.413.616.720.719.919.9
Grants2.72.02.39.314.016.516.920.8
Expenditure41.527.030.937.545.248.951.550.3
Current26.022.425.421.322.625.525.624.0
Noninterest25.922.324.919.320.322.322.221.6
Interest0.10.10.52.02.33.23.42.4
Capital15.54.65.516.222.623.425.926.3
Primary current account–5.2–9.2–11.6–3.3–0.41.10.11.9
Current account–5.3–9.3–12.1–5.3–2.7–2.1–3.3–0.5
Overall balance–18.1–11.9–15.3–11.9–11.4–8.9–12.4–6.0
Overall balance (ex grants)–20.8–13.9–17.7–21.5–25.3–25.4–29.3–26.8
Niger1SAFESAF
Revenue11.111.211.310.110.110.410.28.6
Current11.111.211.310.110.110.410.28.6
Tax9.59.48.68.08.08.27.87.2
Grants3.74.95.24.74.74.85.43.9
Expenditure19.620.920.119.420.520.922.315.8
Current11.111.411.311.511.611.813.011.1
Noninterest8.48.48.58.79.09.210.99.3
Interest2.73.02.82.82.62.62.11.8
Capital8.59.58.87.98.99.19.34.7
Primary current account2.72.82.81.41.11.2–0.7–0.7
Current account0.0–0.20.0–1.4–1.5–1.4–2.8–2.5
Overall balance–4.8–4.8–3.6–4.6–5.7–5.7–6.7–3.3
Overall balance (ex grants)–8.5–9.7–8.8–9.3–10.4–10.5–12.1–7.2
Senegal1SAFESAF
Revenue19.418.817.618.817.516.917.019.018.6
Current19.418.817.618.817.516.917.019.018.6
Tax18.117.514.914.614.313.514.315.215.9
Grants1.21.11.61.11.42.01.31.71.2
Expenditure25.223.521.421.420.121.021.318.719.6
Current21.020.017.717.417.117.116.614.614.1
Noninterest17.215.914.414.413.913.813.912.211.9
Interest3.84.13.33.03.23.32.72.42.2
Capital4.23.53.74.03.03.94.74.15.5
Primary current account2.22.93.24.43.63.13.16.86.7
Current account–1.6–1.2–0.11.4–0.4–0.20.44.44.5
Overall balance–4.6–3.6–2.3–1.5–1.2–2.1–3.01.90.2
Overall balance (ex grants)–5.8–4.7–3.9–2.6–2.6–4.1–4.30.2–1.0
Sri LankaSAFESAF
Revenue22.320.721.418.821.421.120.3
Current22.320.721.418.821.421.120.3
Tax18.717.417.916.218.919.018.2
Grants2.02.12.43.02.52.12.1
Expenditure34.033.032.534.532.631.031.8
Current21.618.920.120.822.622.322.3
Noninterest17.014.014.915.116.915.916.4
Interest4.64.95.25.75.76.45.9
Capital12.414.112.413.710.08.79.5
Primary current account5.36.76.53.74.55.23.9
Current account0.71.81.3–2.0–1.2–1.2–2.0
Overall balance–9.7–10.2–8.7–12.7–8.7–7.8–9.4
Overall balance (ex grants)–11.7–12.3–11.1–15.7–11.2–9.9–11.5
Tanzania1SAFESAF
Revenue17.114.916.116.719.521.022.123.5
Current17.114.916.116.719.521.022.123.5
Tax16.314.015.115.317.118.119.620.7
Grants0.05.95.75.76.13.84.4
Expenditure24.323.124.626.325.528.025.226.4
Current18.819.218.218.621.223.022.521.9
Noninterest16.417.214.814.817.219.319.218.7
Interest2.42.03.43.84.03.73.33.2
Capital5.53.96.47.74.35.02.74.5
Primary current account0.7–2.31.31.92.31.72.94.8
Current account–1.7–4.3–2.1–1.9–1.7–2.0–0.41.6
Overall balance–7.2–8.2–2.6–3.9–0.3–0.90.71.5
Overall balance (ex grants)–7.2–8.2–8.5–9.6–6.0–7.0–3.1–2.9
TogoSAFESAF
Revenue29.928.523.723.422.622.517.1
Current29.928.523.723.422.622.517.1
Tax22.921.419.619.419.518.515.0
Grants4.74.22.22.02.43.21.5
Expenditure36.137.232.828.728.828.624.5
Current23.522.623.121.521.321.320.1
Noninterest16.817.719.017.317.118.016.9
Interest6.64.94.14.24.23.23.1
Capital12.714.69.77.27.57.34.4
Primary current account13.110.84.76.15.54.50.2
Current account6.45.90.61.91.31.2–3.0
Overall balance–1.6–4.5–6.9–3.3–3.8–2.9–5.9
Overall balance (ex grants)–6.3–8.7–9.1–5.3–6.2–6.1–7.4
Uganda1SAFESAF
Revenue4.97.04.96.66.37.68.17.0
Current4.97.04.96.66.37.68.17.0
Tax4.97.04.15.85.36.97.66.7
Grants0.21.30.51.91.81.64.27.3
Expenditure14.412.29.413.012.014.016.321.8
Current10.79.15.87.28.07.98.112.1
Noninterest9.97.75.46.67.27.26.68.7
Interest0.81.50.40.70.80.71.53.4
Capital3.73.13.65.84.06.18.29.7
Primary current account–5.0–0.7–0.50.0–0.90.41.5–1.7
Current account–5.8–2.1–0.9–0.6–1.7–0.30.0–5.1
Overall balance–9.2–3.9–4.0–4.5–3.9–4.8–4.0–7.5
Overall balance (ex grants)–9.5–5.2–4.5–6.4–5.7–6.4–8.2–14.8
Source: IMF staff estimates.Note: Except for Guinea, data are shown for the period commencing three full fiscal years before the first SAF- or ESAF-supported program.

Fiscal year. For Niger, calendar year for 1989–91.

Source: IMF staff estimates.Note: Except for Guinea, data are shown for the period commencing three full fiscal years before the first SAF- or ESAF-supported program.

Fiscal year. For Niger, calendar year for 1989–91.

Table A10.Exchange Rate Developments Against Major Currencies (SDR Exchange Rates)1(1980 = 100)
1985198619871988198919901991
I. Countries with depreciating currencies during their SAF/ESAF arrangements
BangladeshSAFESAF
Nominal71.156.350.247.148.542.940.1
Real95.782.879.279.486.678.876.1
BoliviaSAFESAF
Nominal66.81.41.21.00.90.70.7
Real241.473.269.966.467.260.261.8
BurundiSAFESAF
Nominal95.687.973.362.557.750.447.5
Real112.2103.290.478.777.869.569.1
Gambia, TheSAFESAF
Nominal57.028.124.524.923.121.018.7
Real82.761.466.173.170.768.663.9
GhanaSAFESAF
Nominal6.53.41.91.31.00.80.7
Real45.729.421.819.918.819.219.2
GuineaSAFESAF
Nominal6.24.53.93.32.82.4
Real
GuyanaESAF
Nominal77.066.326.624.712.36.42.4
Real145.1132.466.685.169.060.342.3
KenyaSAFESAF
Nominal58.250.945.640.736.931.225.8
Real83.875.169.265.362.456.251.3
LesothoSAFESAF
Nominal45.838.138.533.330.228.926.8
Real66.463.970.966.766.768.071.5
MadagascarSAFESAF
Nominal40.935.021.414.613.413.611.0
Real78.675.651.044.142.345.738.9
MalawiESAF
Nominal61.148.637.130.829.928.627.6
Real82.774.271.275.380.582.085.0
MauritaniaSAFESAF
Nominal76.468.562.559.155.254.452.9
Real96.992.289.283.684.483.782.2
MozambiqueSAFESAF
Nominal96.288.917.86.14.53.42.2
Real
Sri LankaSAFESAF
Nominal78.065.456.550.346.739.538.0
Real106.293.182.481.978.977.980.8
TanzaniaSAFESAF
Nominal60.234.413.18.15.94.03.6
Real169.4121.760.648.242.533.536.0
UgandaSAFESAF
Nominal1.510.590.270.080.040.020.01
Real14.515.219.617.915.39.67.2
II. Countries with appreciating currencies during their SAF/ESAF arrangements
NigerSAFESAF
Nominal60.667.770.768.767.374.571.4
Real67.171.468.363.958.261.052.3
SenegalSAFESAF
Nominal60.667.770.768.767.374.571.4
Real81.995.693.887.482.487.478.2
TogoSAFESAF
Nominal60.667.770.768.767.374.571.4
Real64.473.775.571.566.671.065.9
Source: IMF staff calculations.

SDR per unit of domestic currency. Real exchange rates are computed in relation to an SDR inflation rate calculated as a weighted average of the consumer price index (CPI) inflation rates of France, Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

Source: IMF staff calculations.

SDR per unit of domestic currency. Real exchange rates are computed in relation to an SDR inflation rate calculated as a weighted average of the consumer price index (CPI) inflation rates of France, Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

Table A11.Exchange Rate Developments: Effective Exchange Rate Indices(1980 = 100)
1985198619871988198919901991
I. Countries with depreciating currencies in nominal effective terms during their SAF/ESAF arrangements
BangladeshSAFESAF
Nominal effective89.973.668.366.372.172.972.6
Real effective107.793.690.287.893.788.586.7
BurundiSAFESAF
Nominal effective130.2114.094.683.179.468.366.8
Real effective135.3116.499.787.788.877.177.3
Gambia, TheSAFESAF
Nominal effective91.545.741.345.047.249.348.2
Real effective99.371.475.381.578.473.569.6
GhanaSAFESAF
Nominal effective9.84.92.92.42.21.91.9
Real effective53.230.623.622.521.221.121.9
GuyanaESAF
Nominal effective105.7100.143.944.724.512.66.0
Real effective153.5145.675.094.174.552.745.4
KenyaSAFESAF
Nominal effective86.677.171.668.468.264.458.4
Real effective101.388.682.077.976.670.569.0
MadagascarSAFESAF
Nominal effective66.058.838.629.530.034.030.6
Real effective92.787.659.752.049.652.445.7
MozambiqueSAFESAF
Nominal effective154.6146.629.010.58.06.04.1
Real effective248.7305.7124.879.079.178.865.6
Sri LankaSAFESAF
Nominal effective88.275.666.759.555.248.447.8
Real effective116.8103.993.090.986.187.792.3
TanzaniaSAFESAF
Nominal effective207.9143.970.855.548.537.239.8
Real effective92.353.421.314.311.69.29.1
UgandaSAFESAF
Nominal effective3.01.30.70.20.10.10.1
Real effective17.518.423.621.318.111.08.4
II. Countries with appreciating currencies in nominal effective terms during their SAF/ESAF arrangements
BoliviaSAFESAF
Nominal effective0.290.010.010.010.030.060.09
Real effective296.787.584.380.076.864.866.9
MalawiESAF
Nominal effective94.480.864.258.462.767.873.3
Real effective97.887.981.786.591.792.097.5
MauritaniaSAFESAF
Nominal effective126.6116.8112.5119.4128.2154.1171.9
Real effective112.0101.996.489.087.984.685.8
SenegalSAFESAF
Nominal effective99.0105.7109.8111.7116.8129.3130.6
Real effective103.2112.1106.3100.095.594.888.2
TogoSAFESAF
Nominal effective95.6104.7110.5113.8119.6140.8146.0
Real effective81.487.787.282.176.578.775.2
III. Countries with stable currencies in nominal effective terms during their SAF/ESAF arrangements
LesothoSAFESAF
Nominal effective97.596.496.495.895.595.295.1
Real effective96.394.891.890.790.888.790.5
NigerSAFESAF
Nominal effective88.388.488.586.986.389.488.0
Real effective83.979.071.867.762.862.154.2
Source: IMF staff estimates.
Source: IMF staff estimates.
Table A12.Export Values Relative to Domestic Consumer Price Indices1(1990 = 100)
1985198619871988198919901991
Bangladesh13111810910510110099
Bolivia33221215612299100117
Burundi2061151177178100102
Gambia, The19914212811110310096
Ghana2,0794031509891100109
Guinea12011199100109
Guyana5852069710073
Kenya2971701501099810095
Lesotho1351029694100104
Madagascar37013978758110094
Malawi20913699969210097
Mauritania140113110969310098
Mozambique37,2341,8792121038610084
Niger8482788286100105
Senegal10611711810810210099
Sri Lanka18618312810798100105
Tanzania916276139104100101
Togo6884959994100100
Uganda90,9146,89984319191100106
Source: IMF staff estimates.

Calculated as the ratio of export unit values to the consumer price index.

Source: IMF staff estimates.

Calculated as the ratio of export unit values to the consumer price index.

Table A13.Sustainability: Evolution of the External Debt to Export Ratio During SAF/ESAF Period1
Analysis of Change in External Debt to Export Ratio
External Debt to Export RatioMemorandum Items
Prior to first SAF or ESAF2Prior to first ESAF2 (In percent)Most recent year2Change in Debt to Export RatioChange in External DebtNon-interest current account deficit3Non-debt-creating flows3Increase in gross reserves3Debt reduction4Real interest less export growth5 (In percent)Terms of trade loss6 (In percent)Cross-product and exchange rate7 (In percent)Residual discrepancy8 (In percent)Real interest rate9 (In percent)Export volume growth rate (In percent)Number of years
(Percent change)
I. Countries with significant decline in debt to export ratio10
Gambia, The381318207–45.7–4.664.8–112.030.3–8.5–47.75.120.53.60.16.86
Guyana903903775–14.20.13.6–5.83.2–13.2–10.85.45.2–1.9–1.83.52
Togo212182166–21.5–2.942.0–48.07.9–13.3–9.33.4–2.2–2.61.84.04
Bolivia523665422–19.35.234.5–31.4–44.3–39.724.727.513.11.17.85
Senegal271316215–20.7–12.054.7–36.07.6–25.425.4–8.2–17.0–21.64.71.06
Malawi345345297–14.040.281.1–70.11.5–3.1–25.3–12.75.511.91.77.24
Bangladesh493448406–17.770.280.8–44.416.3_–73.9–3.717.0–10.60.19.76
Mozambique1,8162,0831,566–13.878.8102.9–74.57.5–18.0–77.89.121.621.90.212.35
II. Countries with broadly unchanged debt to export ratio10
Sri Lanka225201216–4.129.839.5–29.99.8_–19.14.6–0.2–8.41.35.64
Kenya239236231–3.410.238.2–31.2–2.0–15.31.16.00.6–0.92.01.84
Guinea305254293–4.225.355.8–28.45.4–13.3–28.916.0–0.4–9.7–1.14.35
Mauritania328328323–1.4–8.739.9–35.70.4–17.413.510.9–2.8–9.20.7–2.05
Ghana3313433381.938.843.3–42.516.0–14.5–69.336.628.24.3–2.09.85
III. Countries with significant increase in debt to export ratio10
Tanzania5685476117.621.871.7–64.98.6–0.5–7.311.817.3–21.3–1.10.45
Madagascar66472773210.35.714.8–18.0–0.9–17.2–18.536.612.90.43.36.45
Lesotho52646525.351.4500.8–482.647.3–1.3–8.3–7.8–15.42.64.54
Niger29537539533.9–0.966.4–53.21.2–33.418.331.84.8–1.53.50.15
Burundi352993819132.9115.8231.8–163.427.1–27.8–24.639.643.62.9–1.62.46
Uganda2734341,092300.8101.2115.4–61.82.6–1.68.457.4166.73.52.71.25
Source: IMF staff estimates.

Stock of medium- and long-term external public and publicly guaranteed debt (including use of IMF resources) as percent of exports of goods and nonfactor services.

End of calendar year or fiscal year. Most recent year is calendar year 1991 or fiscal year 1991/92.

Percent of initial debt stock; cumulative flows. Noninterest current account excludes grants. Non-debt-creating flows include grants, direct investment, private and short-term capital flows, and errors and omissions. Inflows have negative sign.

Cumulative debt reduction as percent of initial debt stock.

Real interest defined as cumulative interest flow divided by initial debt stock and deflated by import price index.

Cumulative depreciation of terms of trade index (depreciation +).

Cross-currency exchange rate terms and cross-product terms.

Residual discrepancy attributable to mismatch between debt stock and flow data.

Real interest rate (see footnote 5) on annual basis.

Countries listed in order of increasing annual average decline in debt/export ratio (see Table 6).

Source: IMF staff estimates.

Stock of medium- and long-term external public and publicly guaranteed debt (including use of IMF resources) as percent of exports of goods and nonfactor services.

End of calendar year or fiscal year. Most recent year is calendar year 1991 or fiscal year 1991/92.

Percent of initial debt stock; cumulative flows. Noninterest current account excludes grants. Non-debt-creating flows include grants, direct investment, private and short-term capital flows, and errors and omissions. Inflows have negative sign.

Cumulative debt reduction as percent of initial debt stock.

Real interest defined as cumulative interest flow divided by initial debt stock and deflated by import price index.

Cumulative depreciation of terms of trade index (depreciation +).

Cross-currency exchange rate terms and cross-product terms.

Residual discrepancy attributable to mismatch between debt stock and flow data.

Real interest rate (see footnote 5) on annual basis.

Countries listed in order of increasing annual average decline in debt/export ratio (see Table 6).

Table A14.External Current Account Positions(Excluding official transfers; in percent of GDP)
Country1985198619871988198919901991
Bangladesh–6.9–5.5–5.8–6.9–6.8–4.1–2.9
Bolivia–8.3–10.5–11.8–11.1–8.5–8.3–9.5
Burundi–10.5–11.7–17.9–14.6–14.2–20.8–18.1
Gambia, The–16.5–21.8–16.1–13.1–18.1–13.2–13.9
Ghana–4.1–3.5–4.6–5.1–6.0–8.3–6.9
Guinea–5.6–8.2–12.8–8.4–10.3–10.7
Guyana–30.7–22.4–41.0–50.0–50.0
Kenya–3.2–2.5–8.1–8.4–10.5–7.5–6.2
Lesotho–20.1–14.6–17.3–21.5–23.3–35.3–43.5
Madagascar–10.9–6.3–10.0–10.8–8.7–11.8–10.6
Malawi–8.5–5.8–4.6–12.5–19.8–13.9–14.3
Mauritania–26.2–33.3–28.6–22.1–14.4–21.7–14.2
Mozambique–15.3–15.3–47.8–52.9–58.8–54.7–59.0
Niger–15.2–9.8–9.9–9.5–10.4–11.1–6.4
Senegal–13.8–10.5–10.8–9.5–7.9–9.0–7.9
Sri Lanka–8.9–15.2–9.8–9.9–9.5–10.4–11.1
Tanzania–14.7–20.1–26.1–27.3–28.0–27.9
Togo–12.7–14.8–12.7–11.8–9.8–13.3–10.4
Uganda–6.4–14.0–15.4–16.2–15.5–10.9
Average–12.1–11.5–15.2–15.6–16.8–18.3–17.6
Source: IMF staff estimates.
Source: IMF staff estimates.
References

    GoturPadmaBangladesh: Economic Reform Measures and the Poor,” IMF Working Paper WP/91/39 (Washington: International Monetary Fund1991).

    GuideAnne-MarieSri Lanka: Price Changes and the Poor,” IMF Working Paper WP/91/46 (Washington: International Monetary Fund1991).

    HicksRonald and Odd PerBrekkAssessing the Impact of Structural Adjustment on the Poor: The Case of Malawi,” IMF Working Paper WP/91/112 (Washington: International Monetary Fund1991).

    LopesPaulo S. and EmilioSacerdotiMozambique: Economic Rehabilitation and the Poor,” IMF Working Paper WP/91/101 (Washington: International Monetary Fund1991).

    World BankAdjustment in Africa: Progress Payoffs and Challenges World Bank Policy Research Report No. 2 (forthcoming).

The term “SAF/ESAF period” will be used to denote the period for each country starting with the program year of the first SAF- or ESAF-supported arrangement and ending with the most recent year for which data are available, 1991 or 1991/92.

The remaining 14 countries either had initiated ESAF arrangements later in the period and were still implementing or negotiating annual ESAF programs or, in three cases, were experiencing delays in negotiating an annual program.

In half of the countries, the real depreciation exceeded 10 percent.

Provisional outcomes for 1992 or 1992/93 suggest a weakening in fiscal performance in some of these countries. These results reflect slippages in policies but also such exogenous developments as the drought in Southern Africa.

The primary current account excludes interest payments, which are beyond the control of present policies, and capital transactions, both expenditures and receipts, which tend to be driven by the availability of foreign grants.

The exception was Guyana, where a significant part of the adjustment came from the expenditure side.

In several countries—Bolivia, Guinea, Lesotho, and Sri Lanka—either marketing boards did not exist or problems had been addressed prior to the SAF/ESAF arrangements.

See Appendix Table A4 for a description of these countries. The three others identified in that table as having no major restrictions—Niger, Senegal, and Togo—were members of the WAMU. They retained free exchange systems but restricted trade.

Research conducted in the context of the third in-house seminar on poverty has been published in IMF Working Papers on Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Malawi, and Mozambique. See the list of references.

Household surveys were initiated in Guinea, Guyana, and Mauritania; Kenya set up a National Household Welfare Monitoring Program; in Niger an analytical base was provided by efforts under a United Nations Development Program to reduce the social costs of adjustment; and in Ghana a comprehensive report on the social dimensions of adjustment recommended more direct integration of social issues into the budget and public investment program.

A variant of this measure—the ratio of the present value of future debt-service payments to current exports—is presented in World Bank, Adjustment in Africa: Progress, Payoffs and Challenges, World Bank Policy Research Report No. 2 (forthcoming).

In Guyana, the pronounced drop in principal payments mainly reflects a change in the treatment of commercial bank debt past due. In Tanzania, the decline in principal was the lagged effect of reduced borrowing in the early 1980s.

The ratio of principal due to total debt is a very rough indicator of repayment terms. Its inverse would be a robust index of the average maturity of a country’s debt if the maturity structure of the debt were unchanging. Since this is not the case, this measure is merely suggestive of changes in maturity.

An important caveat in interpreting these data is that the correspondence between changes in recorded debt and changes implied by balance of payments flows is often poor.

Table 6 shows average annual changes in variables—identified in Box 3—that affected the debt ratio. Appendix Table A13 provides a different presentation, highlighting the cumulative influences of each variable on the debt ratio. Thus, including the residual discrepancy, which captures cross-product terms, the sum of the effects on the debt ratio listed in that table equals the change in the debt ratio.

Bangladesh, Bolivia, The Gambia, Ghana, Guyana, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Senegal, Sri Lanka, and Togo. These are the countries that (a) reduced their debt-service ratios (or maintained them at very low levels), (b) reduced (or maintained at low levels) their resort to exceptional financing, and (c) had no significant accumulation of arrears during the ESAF period.

As noted previously, national accounts data in ESAF countries are poor. Therefore, ratios to GDP and cross-country comparisons should be treated with caution.

This discussion is based on a combination of preliminary data and recent short-term projections for the 13 countries whose data are on a calendar-year basis: Bolivia, Burundi, Ghana, Guinea, Guyana, Kenya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritania, Mozambique, Niger, Sri Lanka, and Togo.

In Lesotho and the member countries of the West African Monetary Union, currency depreciation was ruled out by adherence to fixed exchange rate regimes.

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