- International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
- Published Date:
- April 2000
© 2000 International Monetary Fund
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World economic outlook (International Monetary Fund)
World economic outlook: a survey by the staff of the International
Monetary Fund.—1980 Washington, D.C.: The Fund, 1980-
v.; 28 cm.—(1981–84: Occasional paper/International Monetary Fund ISSN 0251-6365)
Has occasional updates, 1984-
ISSN 0258-7440 = World economic and financial surveys
ISSN 0256-6877 = World economic outlook (Washington)
1. Economic history—1971- —Periodicals. I. International
Monetary Fund. II. Series: Occasional paper (International Monetary Fund)
AACR 2 MARCS
Library of Congress 8507
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Assumptions and Conventions
A number of assumptions have been adopted for the projections presented in the World Economic Outlook. It has been assumed that real effective exchange rates will remain constant at their average levels during January 25–February 22, 2000 except for the currencies participating in the European exchange rate mechanism II (ERM II), which are assumed to remain constant in nominal terms relative to the euro; that established policies of national authorities will be maintained (for specific assumptions about fiscal and monetary polices in industrial countries, see Box 1.3); that the average price of oil will be $24.50 a barrel in 2000 and $19.80 a barrel in 2001, and remain unchanged in real terms over the medium term; and that the six-month London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) on U.S. dollar deposits will average 6.8 percent in 2000 and 7.1 percent in 2001. These are, of course, working hypotheses rather than forecasts, and the uncertainties surrounding them add to the margin of error that would in any event be involved in the projections. The estimates and projections are based on statistical information available in mid-March 2000.
The following conventions have been used throughout the World Economic Outlook:
… to indicate that data are not available or not applicable;
— to indicate that the figure is zero or negligible;
– between years or months (for example, 1997–98 or January-June) to indicate the years or months covered, including the beginning and ending years or months;
/ between years or months (for example, 1997/98) to indicate a fiscal or financial year.
“Billion” means a thousand million; “trillion” means a thousand billion.
“Basis points” refer to hundredths of 1 percentage point (for example, 25 basis points are equivalent to ¼ of 1 percentage point).
In the main text, shaded areas of figures and tables indicate IMF staff projections. In the Statistical Appendix, projections are shown in white.
Minor discrepancies between sums of constituent figures and totals shown are due to rounding.
As used in this report, the term “country” does not in all cases refer to a territorial entity that is a state as understood by international law and practice. As used here, the term also covers some territorial entities that are not states but for which statistical data are maintained on a separate and independent basis.
Further Information and Data
This report on the World Economic Outlook is available in full on the IMF’s Internet site, www.imf.org. Accompanying it on the website is a larger compilation of data from the WEO database than in the report itself, consisting of files containing the series most frequently requested by readers. These files may be downloaded for use in a variety of software packages.
Inquiries about the content of the World Economic Outlook and the WEO database should be sent by mail, electronic mail, or telefax (telephone inquiries cannot be accepted) to:
World Economic Studies Division
International Monetary Fund
700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20431, U.S.A.
The projections and analysis contained in the World Economic Outlook are an integral element of the IMF’s ongoing surveillance of economic developments and policies in its member countries and of the global economic system. The IMF has published the World Economic Outlook annually from 1980 through 1983 and biannually since 1984.
The survey of prospects and policies is the product of a comprehensive interdepartmental review of world economic developments, which draws primarily on information the IMF staff gathers through its consultations with member countries. These consultations are carried out in particular by the IMF’s area departments together with the Policy Development and Review Department and the Fiscal Affairs Department.
The country projections are prepared by the IMF’s area departments on the basis of internationally consistent assumptions about world activity, exchange rates, and conditions in international financial and commodity markets. For approximately 50 of the largest economies—accounting for 90 percent of world output—the projections are updated for each World Economic Outlook exercise. For smaller countries, the projections are based on those prepared at the time of the IMF’s regular Article IV consultations with those countries or in connection with the use of IMF resources.
The analysis in the World Economic Outlook draws extensively on the ongoing work of the IMF’s area and specialized departments, and is coordinated in the Research Department under the general direction of Michael Mussa, Economic Counsellor and Director of Research. The World Economic Outlook project is directed by Flemming Larsen, Deputy Director of the Research Department, together with Tamim Bayoumi, Chief of the World Economic Studies Division.
Primary contributors to the current issue include Luis Catão, Mark De Broeck, John H. Green, Maitland MacFarlan, Peter Sturm, Cathy Wright, Francesco Caramazza, Barry Eichengreen, Luca Ricci, Ranil Salgado, and Torsten Sløk. Other contributors include Eduardo Borensztein, Paul Cashin, Martin Cerisola, Juan Pablo Cordoba, Paula De Masi, Luiz de Mello, Sanjeev Gupta, Benjamin Hunt, Charles Kramer, Douglas Laxton, Carles Pinerua, and Patricia Reynolds. The Fiscal Analysis Division of the Fiscal Affairs Department computed the structural budget and fiscal impulse measures. Mandy Hemmati, Bennett Sutton, Siddique Hossain, Toh Kuan, and Yutong Li provided research assistance. Gretchen Byrne, Nicholas Dopuch, Staffan Gorne, Olga Plagie, Di Rao, and Anthony G. Turner processed the data and managed the computer systems. Lisa Nugent, Patricia Medina, Jemille Tumang, and Marlene George were responsible for word processing. Jeff Hayden and Jacqueline Irving of the External Relations Department edited the manuscript and coordinated production of the publication.
The analysis has benefited from comments and suggestions by staff from other IMF departments, as well as by Executive Directors following their discussion of the World Economic Outlook on March 22 and March 24, 2000. However, both projections and policy considerations are those of the IMF staff and should not be attributed to Executive Directors or to their national authorities.