Brazil
Back Matter

Back Matter New

Author(s):
Antonio Spilimbergo, and Krishna Srinivasan
Published Date:
March 2019
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    Author Biographies

    Fernando Coppe Alcaraz is the undersecretary for regional integration and foreign trade at Brazil’s Ministry of Finance, a position that deals with all major issues in Brazil’s international trade and investment policies. As a government official, he has more than 16 years of experience in positions of increasing responsibility in the areas of international trade and international economics. He holds a BA in business administration from the University of São Paulo, in Brazil, and an MA in international law and economics from the World Trade Institute of the University of Bern, in Switzerland.

    Ravi Balakrishnan is the IMF mission chief for Peru and heads the regional group on inequality and poverty in the IMF’s Western Hemisphere Department. Previously, he helped manage the US team and was mission chief for Bolivia. He was also the IMF’s resident representative in Singapore during 2010–13, with regional responsibilities, and has worked on the World Economic Outlook. His research interests and publications cover labor dynamics, inequality, inflation dynamics, exchange rate dynamics, and capital flows. He holds a BA from the University of Cambridge and a PhD in economics from the London School of Economics.

    Richard Berkhout is a senior counsel in the IMF Legal Department, where he focuses on anti–money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT) and anti-corruption. He is involved in surveillance, assessments, policy issues, research, and capacity development. Previously he was a senior policy analyst at the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) Secretariat, where he was responsible for the FATF’s mutual evaluation program and led assessments of Australia, Oman, Saudi Arabia, and Singapore and the follow-up program with Brazil. Before that he worked at the Dutch Ministry of Finance as a senior policy advisor for AML/CFT. He holds a master’s degree in law and political science from the University of Leiden in the Netherlands.

    Nina Biljanovska is an economist in the IMF’s Western Hemisphere Department, currently covering Brazil and Ecuador. Previously, she worked in the IMF’s Institute for Capacity Development. Her research focuses mainly on policy design, uncertainty, and behavioral finance and has been published in academic journals and IMF publications. She holds a PhD in economics from Goethe University Frankfurt.

    Fabian Bornhorst was the IMF’s resident representative in Brazil during 2014–18. Prior to that he was an economist in the IMF’s European and Fiscal Affairs Department. Before joining the IMF, he was an Overseas Development Institute fellow in Namibia. His research focuses on fiscal policy and the impact of public and private indebtedness on growth. He holds an MSc in economics from University College London and the Free University of Berlin and earned his PhD in economics from the European University Institute in Florence.

    Steen Byskov is a senior financial economist in the World Bank’s Finance Competitiveness and Innovation Global Practice and is currently in the Latin America and Caribbean group. He works on topics related to financial stability and financial development. He has led or participated in the joint World Bank– IMF Financial Sector Assessment Program in Barbados, Guyana, Romania, Suriname, Turkey, and Uruguay. He has also led several World Bank lending operations to develop business financing and mortgage lending and has worked in the East Asia and Pacific and the Europe and Central Asia regions. Previously he was at the IMF. He has a master’s degree in economics from the University of Copenhagen and an MBA from the University of Maryland.

    Yan Carrière-Swallow is an economist in the Western Hemisphere Department of the IMF, where he covers Argentina. His analysis of fiscal and monetary policies in Latin America and the Caribbean has appeared regularly in the IMF’s Regional Economic Outlook. Prior to joining the IMF in 2012, he was an advisor at the Central Bank of Chile in Santiago. His research focuses on international macroeconomics and policies in emerging markets.

    Alfredo Cuevas is an assistant director in the IMF’s European Department and is the mission chief for Portugal. Previously he led the Brazil mission team in the Western Hemisphere Department (2014–17) and headed the Regional Studies Division in the IMF’s African Department (2012–14), where he coordinated the production of the IMF’s Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa. He has also served as the IMF senior resident representative in South Africa and as mission chief for several countries covered by the African Department. He spent several years in the IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department, where he led technical assistance missions on social security reform and other public finance topics to several Latin American countries. He was also a senior economist in the Research Department of the Mexican Central Bank and taught public finance at El Colegio de Mexico. He has a BA in public administration from El Colegio de Mexico and an MA in public affairs and a PhD in economics from Princeton University.

    Isabela Ferreira Duarte is an advisor to the secretary at Brazil’s Ministry of Finance Secretariat for Productivity and Competition Advocacy and an economics PhD candidate at the Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio). Her research is focused primarily on the use of economic models and quantitative tools to evaluate and design public policy. She has conducted research in the areas of development, education, and credit markets. Her current research studies the impact of a major student loan program in Brazil on tuition, enrollment, occupational choice, and achievement. She holds a BA in economics from the University of Brasília and an MA in economics from PUC-Rio.

    Mark Dutz is lead economist in the World Bank’s Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment Global Practice. He is responsible for productivity growth and its interaction with poverty reduction and shared prosperity. He has worked in all World Bank geographic regions, as its enterprise policy anchor, and in the Office of the Chief Economist. His other experience includes as senior consultant with Compass Lexecon Inc.; senior advisor to the State Minister of Economic Affairs and Treasury, Turkey; principal economist in the Office of the Chief Economist, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development; and consultant to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, World Trade Organization, World Intellectual Property Organization, and Canada’s Networks of Centers of Excellence. He has taught at Princeton University and holds an MA in public affairs from Princeton’s Woodrow Wilson School and a PhD in economics from Princeton University.

    Marcello Estevão is secretary for international affairs at Brazil’s Ministry of Finance and is responsible for the country’s international economic agenda. He is also G20 finance deputy, chairman of the board of directors of the New Development Bank (Shanghai), and a member of the governing board of FUNCEF (one of Brazil’s largest pension funds). He has a PhD in economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and has worked as a policymaker, manager, and researcher; with many academic and policy publications; and at the IMF, the Federal Reserve Board, and Tudor Investment Corporation, Greenwich, Connecticut.

    Nayara Freire is a public accounts analyst at the Federation of Industries of the state of Rio de Janeiro (FIRJAN). Her projects in subnational governments include a new measure of deficit, transparency, and compliance. In past years, she worked on several studies about Rio de Janeiro, fiscal crises in Brazil’s states, and a rating system for Brazil’s municipalities: the FIRJAN Index of Fiscal Management. She has a BA in economics from the Federal Rural University of Rio de Janeiro and is currently pursuing a master’s degree in public policy regulation and evaluation at the Getúlio Vargas Foundation.

    Carlos Góes is senior economic advisor at the Executive Office of the President of Brazil and chief research officer of Instituto Mercado Popular, a São Paulo–based think tank. He previously worked as an economic analyst at the IMF and at US think tanks. His academic research has been featured in The Wall Street Journal, The Financial Times, El País, and Le Monde. He holds an MA in international economics from the Johns Hopkins University and is pursuing a PhD in economics at the University of California, San Diego.

    Carlos Eduardo Gonçalves is an economist in the Western Hemisphere Department of the IMF. He previously held a position in the IMF’s Research Department. Prior to joining the IMF, he was a full professor of economics at the University of São Paulo in Brazil. He has a PhD in economics from the University of São Paulo and has published in leading academic journals, such as the Journal of International Economics, Journal of Development Economics, and Journal of Money, Credit and Banking. He has also published many books in Portuguese aimed at teaching economics to the general public.

    Izabela Karpowicz is a senior economist in the European Department of the IMF and desk economist for Austria. Since she joined the IMF in 2004, she has held positions in several departments, working as an economist on low income as well as systemic factors in emerging market economies across various regions. Her interests and research fall under a broad area of fiscal topics, including pensions, the government’s wage bill, public-private partnerships, and intergovernmental relations. She has also conducted research on income inequality and financial inclusion in Latin America. Before joining the IMF she was a World Bank consultant. She is a graduate in economics from Bocconi University in Milan and holds an MS in economics from Central European University in Budapest. She is also a graduate in macroeconomic policy research of the Kiel Institute for World Economics Program.

    Eduardo Leoni is division chief of productive infrastructures at the Executive Office of the President of Brazil. He has been an analyst at IBGE, the Brazilian national statistics agency, since 2010. He previously worked as a statistical consultant at Harvard University and Columbia University and in the private sector in Brazil and the United States. He holds a BA and an MA from the University of Brasília and an MPhil from Columbia University.

    Paulo de Carvalho Lins is a former associate researcher at the Brazilian Institute of Economics at the Getúlio Vargas Foundation, where he worked on issues related to productivity and infrastructure in Brazil. He has a BA in economics from the Federal University of Minas Gerais and an MSc in economics from the University of São Paulo. He is an economics PhD student at the University of Rochester, and his research focus is on macroeconomics in general, especially monetary and fiscal policies and their interaction.

    Vivian Malta is an economist in the Strategy, Policy, and Review Department of the IMF, where she has been working on analytical projects that tackle both macroeconomic issues (income) and gender inequality. Prior to joining the IMF, she worked in the Macroeconomics and Fiscal Management Department at the World Bank’s office in Brazil as part of a large public expenditure review project. She has years of experience as a macroeconomist in the financial sector in Brazil. She holds a BA in industrial engineering from the Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro and a PhD in economics from Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, where she studied monetary and international economics.

    Troy Matheson is a senior economist in the Western Hemisphere Department of the IMF, where his recent research has focused on Brazil and Canada. He previously worked in the IMF Research Department. Prior to joining the IMF, he was an advisor in the Modelling Division at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. He holds a postgraduate degree in economics from the University of Canterbury, New Zealand. He has published papers in international journals in the fields of macroeconomic modeling, monetary policy, time series modeling, and forecasting.

    Paulo Medas is a deputy division chief in the IMF Fiscal Affairs Department. He has led technical assistance missions to several countries on fiscal issues, including developing robust fiscal frameworks. He was the IMF’s resident representative in Brazil during 2008–11 and worked with several emerging market and advanced economies. His recent areas of research include fiscal crises, governance and corruption, fiscal management in resource-rich countries, and fiscal risks.

    Guilherme Mercês is chief economist at the Federation of Industries of the state of Rio de Janeiro. He is a former budget consultant for the local parliament and professor of macroeconomics at the State University of Rio de Janeiro. With a focus on macroeconomics and public finances, he has had several studies and analyses published in specialized journals and in Brazil’s mainstream media. During the past 10 years, he has led studies on debt sustainability and state fiscal crises in Brazil and developed a rating for all Brazilian municipalities. He has an MA in economics from the State University of Rio de Janeiro and executive background in strategy from the INSEAD business school, in scenario planning from Oxford University, and in public management from Columbia University.

    Alessandro Merli is associate fellow of the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, Europe. He was previously Frankfurt correspondent and European Central Bank watcher at Il Sole 24 Ore, the Italian financial newspaper, where he also was London correspondent, financial editor, and columnist and is still a contributor. He has taught at the universities of Modena and Parma and the Bologna Business School. He is a graduate in Law of the Università di Modena and earned an MA in economics at the University of Illinois. He was a visiting scholar at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

    Alexandre Messa is senior economic advisor at the Brazil Trade Board and an economist at the Institute for Applied Economic Research. He specializes in microfounded general equilibrium models for policy analysis, international trade, corporate finance, and contract theory. He holds an MA in business economics from the Getúlio Vargas Foundation and a PhD in economics from the University of São Paulo.

    Luís Gustavo Montes is technical advisor at the Executive Office of the President of Brazil and a foreign trade analyst at the Ministry of Industry, Foreign Trade and Services. Previously he was coordinator of labor market policies for Pronatec-MDIC, a program designed to match reskilling efforts with regional labor demand. He also previously worked at the Superior Court of Justice and the Ministry of Health. He holds a BA in international relations from the University of Brasilia and an MBA in trade remedies from IBMEC, a university in Brazil that specializes in teaching and research in Latin American business and economics in Latin America.

    Carlos Mulas-Granados is a senior economist in the IMF European Department. Since joining the IMF in 2012, he has led research for flagship publications such as the European Regional Economic Outlook, Fiscal Monitor, and World Economic Outlook and has worked on country-specific fiscal issues in Brazil, Costa Rica, Croatia, Portugal, and Senegal and the euro area. He is also a tenured professor of applied economics at Complutense University of Madrid (on leave) and has served as a deputy director of the Spanish prime minister’s economic office. He has authored or coedited four books and has published articles in areas including political economy, fiscal adjustment, debt reduction, public investment, research and development, and inequality. He holds an MA in international affairs (international political economy concentration) from Columbia University, a PhD in economics from Cambridge University, and a European doctorate in economics from Complutense University of Madrid.

    Armando Castelar Pinheiro is coordinator of applied economics research at the Brazilian Institute of Economics at the Getúlio Vargas Foundation and professor of economics at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro. Previously he worked at Gávea Investimentos, the Institute of Applied Economic Research, and the National Development Bank. He earned a BA in electronic engineering from the Instituto Tecnológico de Aeronáutica, MAs in statistics from the Instituto de Matematica Pura e Aplicada and business administration from the COPPEAD Graduate School of Business, and a PhD in economics from the University of California, Berkeley. He is a member of the Economic and Social Development Council and pens monthly columns for the Valor Econômico and Correio Braziliense newspapers.

    Roberto Perrelli is a senior economist in the IMF’s Strategy, Policy, and Review Department. He has served on the teams for Brazil, Greece, Ireland, Malta, South Africa, Venezuela, and the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union. He has worked on a broad range of policy and country issues, including early warning systems of balance of payments crises, financial programs, and debt restructuring. Before joining the IMF, he taught econometrics at the University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, where he obtained his MSc in statistics and PhD in economics. Early in his career, he worked on banking issues at Price Waterhouse in Brazil. His research interests include monetary policy, international trade and finance, and econometrics. He has published in top academic journals.

    João Manoel Pinho de Mello is currently on leave from his position as professor of economics at Insper. His research interests cover several areas of applied economics. After receiving his PhD in economics from Stanford University in 2005, he joined the faculty of the Economics Department at the Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro, where he was an assistant (2005–10) and an associate (2011–13) professor. He was a founder and cohead of the America Latina Crime and Policy Network, a network of researchers sponsored by the Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association. During the 2016–17 academic year, he was a visiting professor at Harvard University, a fellow at the Center of International Development, and the Lemann Scholar at the David Rockefeller Center for Latin America Studies. In 2017, he was appointed deputy minister of finance of Brazil responsible for microeconomic reforms. He currently heads the recently established Secretariat for the Promotion of Productivity and Competition Advocacy and is a researcher for the Brazilian National Counsel of Scientific and Technological Development. In addition to academic activities, he has worked extensively with the private sector as a consultant, economic analyst, and expert witness in numerous litigation, arbitration, and antitrust cases.

    Maria Cristina Rondelli Pinotti has been a partner with the macroeconomic consulting firm A.C. Pastore & Associados for the past 25 years, working on topics relevant to analysis of the Brazilian economy, such as growth, fiscal and monetary policy, exchange rate policy, and international economics. Previously she was an economist at Unibanco and DIVESP and with MB Associados. She coauthored Affonso Pastore’s 2014 book Inflações e Crises: o Papel da Moeda. Her latest research includes theory and empirical evidence of the economics of corruption, in particular in Brazil (Lava Jato) and Italy (Mani Pulite). She authored a chapter in the 2017 book Infraestrutura: Eficiencia e Ética, coedited by the Brazilian think tank Centro de Debates de Políticas Públicas, where she is a member of the advisory board. She has an undergraduate degree in public administration and a graduate degree in economics.

    Carlos Pio is undersecretary for strategic planning at the Executive Office of the President of Brazil. He specializes in the political economy of trade, particularly in the Brazilian trade liberalization process of the early 1990s, and has taught international political economy at the University of Brasília for the past 20 years. He was visiting professor at the University of California, Berkeley; the University of Oxford; and the Australian National University. He holds a PhD in political science from the Rio de Janeiro Research Institute.

    Shaun Roache is an economist at the Singapore government–owned investment firm Temasek. Before joining Temasek, he worked at the IMF covering Brazil, China, and other major emerging market economies. He has a PhD in economics from Birkbeck College, University of London.

    Damiano Sandri is a senior economist working on the Brazil desk in the Western Hemisphere Department of the IMF. He is also associate editor of the IMF Economic Review. Prior to joining the Brazil team, he worked for several years in the IMF Research Department, focusing on macro-financial issues. He holds a PhD in economics from the Johns Hopkins University, and his research has been featured in top academic journals and IMF publications.

    Mauricio Soto is a senior economist at the IMF. He has collaborated with the authorities of more than 20 countries in analyzing fiscal issues over the past decade. Prior to joining the IMF, he worked as a researcher on retirement issues, first at the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College and most recently at the Urban Institute. He has authored and coauthored several papers on pensions and social insurance. His peer-reviewed research has been published in the Journal of Accounting Research, Labour, Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Ageing International, and Journal of Financial Planning.

    Antonio Spilimbergo received his undergraduate diploma in economics from Università Bocconi and his PhD in economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Since 1997, he has worked at the IMF, where he is currently assistant director in the Western Hemisphere Department. He has been mission chief for Brazil, Italy, Russia, Slovenia, and Turkey. He is a research fellow of the Center for Economic Policy Research, William Davidson Institute, and CreAm. His areas of interest are international trade, development, labor economics, political economy, and macroeconomics. His papers have been published in leading academic journals, including the American Economic Review, Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economics and Statistics, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, and Journal of International Economics. He coedited the book Getting Back on Track: Growth, Employment, and Rebalancing in Europe.

    Krishna Srinivasan is currently a deputy director in the Western Hemisphere Department of the IMF, which he joined in 1994. In this capacity, he oversees the institution’s work on several countries in Latin America and the Caribbean, the department’s research activities, and its flagship product, the Regional Economic Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean. Most recently, he coedited a book titled Unleashing Growth and Strengthening Resilience in the Caribbean. He was previously in the European Department, serving as the IMF’s mission chief for the United Kingdom and Israel, and before that in the Research Department, where he led the IMF’s work on the G20 and was the lead editor of the IMF book Global Rebalancing: A Roadmap for Economic Recovery. He received his MA from the Delhi School of Economics, India, and his PhD in international finance from Indiana University and has published several papers both at the IMF and in leading academic journals.

    Marina Mendes Tavares is an economist at the IMF and leader of the UK Department for International Development working group on the interconnections between macroeconomic policy and income inequality. This group developed the Macroeconomic and Distributional Analysis Model, which has been used extensively at the IMF to operationalize inequality in surveillance and program countries. She has a BA in economics from the Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro, an MA in mathematical economics from the Instituto de Matematica Pura e Aplicada, and a PhD in economics from the University of Minnesota. Prior to joining the IMF, she worked for two years as an assistant professor at the Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de Mexico.

    Frederik Toscani is an economist in the IMF Western Hemisphere Department. He previously worked in the Fiscal Affairs Department. His research has focused mainly on issues in public economics, political economy, and economic growth. He holds a BSc in economics from the London School of Economics and an MPhil and PhD in economics from the University of Cambridge.

    Mauricio Vargas is an economist in the IMF Western Hemisphere Department currently working on countries in the Caribbean I Division. Previously he worked in the Research Department for four years, contributing to the external sector report and external balance assessment. Prior to joining the IMF, he worked at various public and private institutions in Bolivia and Chile. His research focuses on topics related to international economics, informality, and poverty and inequality. He holds an MSc and a PhD in economics from the Universidad de Chile.

    Alejandro Werner assumed his current position as director of the IMF Western Hemisphere Department in 2013. A Mexican citizen, he has had distinguished careers in the public and private sectors as well as in academia. He was Mexican undersecretary of finance and public credit (2006–10) and head of corporate and investment banking at BBVA Bancomer (2011–12). Previously, he was director of economic studies at the Bank of Mexico and professor at the Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México, Instituto de Empresa, and Yale University. He has published widely. He was named Young Global Leader by the World Economic Forum in 2007 and received his PhD from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1994.

    Juan Yépez is an economist in the Regional Studies Division of the IMF’s Western Hemisphere Department. Previously, he worked in the World Economic Studies Division of the Research Department. He holds a PhD in international economics from the University of Notre Dame. His research interests include financial markets, monetary policy, and international macroeconomics and finance.

    Index

    A

    • Active labor market policies, 118–20, 120f

    • Ad hoc accounting conventions, 20

    • Age pyramid, 197f

    • Age-related public spending, 11

    • Aggregate economic growth, 56

    • Aggregate productivity

      • growth of, 56–60

      • microfoundations of, 60–62

    • Agricultural letters of credit (Letras de Credito Agropecuario), 270

    • Agriculture

      • productivity in, 63

      • subsidies for, 270, 273, 275

    • ANAC. See Autorità Nazionale Anticorruzione

    • Andrade Gutierrez, 336

    • Annual Budget Guidelines Law (Lei de Diretrizes Orçamentárias/LDO), 175, 181, 189

    • Annual Narcotics Control Strategy Report (United States State Department), 319

    • Annual primary surplus, 184

    • Annual Social Information Report (RAIS), 122–23

    • Anti-corruption efforts

      • frameworks for, 315–18

      • in Italy, 341–48

      • reform required for, 342

      • studies on, 343

    • Anticorruption investigations, 341

    • Antidumping duties, 7, 29, 102, 107

    • Anti-money laundering frameworks, 315–18

    • Asia Pacific Group for Money Laundering (APG), 316n3

    • Asset prices, 17f

    • Australia, 180

      • fiscal strategy publication by, 181

    • Automatic progression rules, 223

    • Autorità Nazionale Anticorruzione (ANAC), 343, 345

    B

    • Bailouts, subnational, 11, 208–9, 220

    • Balakrishnan, Ravi, 9, 139

    • Balassa-Samuelson effect, 131

    • Banco Central do Brasil. See Central Bank of Brazil

    • Banco da Amazônia, 45, 275

    • Banco do Brasil, 16, 45, 269

      • recapitalization of, 274

    • Banco do Nordeste do Brasil, 45, 274–75

    • Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Deconômico e Social. See Brazilian Development Bank

    • Banking assets, 269, 269f

    • Banking sector

      • potential gains from reforms of, 89–90

      • public opinions of, 85–86, 86f

      • public support for reforms in, 85

      • structural reforms and, 77, 78f

    • Banking sector reforms, 7, 79–80

      • prioritization of, 88

    • Bankruptcy law, ineffectiveness of, 49

    • BCB. See Central Bank of Brazil

    • Becker, Gary, 338

    • Below-market interest rate lending, 271

    • Berkhout, Richard, 14, 315

    • Berlusconi, Silvio, 328n3, 333, 338, 341

      • false accounting crime, 345

      • judicial investigations of, 344

    • Between-state inequality, 133

    • Biljanovska, Nina, 7, 75

    • Biondi Decree, 334

    • BNDES. See Brazilian Development Bank

    • Bolivia, 151f

      • departmental budgets, 160, 160f

      • employment, 150–51, 152f

      • household income, 151t

      • household survey data for, 150–51

      • labor market impacts of commodity boom in, 158–59, 159f

      • natural resource boom impacts, 167

      • natural resource revenue sharing, 168

      • natural resource windfall redistribution in, 159

      • regional differences in commodity boom impacts in, 154–59

      • Shapley decompositions for, 151–52, 153f

    • Bolsa Familia, 18, 127, 140

    • Boom-and-bust cycles, 5, 161

    • Bornhorst, Fabian, 11

    • Borrowing restrictions, 209

    • Bradesco, 269f

    • Brasil Maior Plan, 46n6

    • Brazil. See specific topics

    • Brazilian Democratic Movement

      • Party. See Partido do Movimernto

      • Democrático Brasileiro

    • Brazilian Development Bank (Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Deconômico e Social/BNDES), 16, 19, 19n2, 45, 88, 177, 241

      • credit market and, 269

      • credit market interventions and, 273, 274

      • earmarked credit reforms and, 268–69

      • earmarked lending and, 270, 271

      • lending operations publication, 272

      • short-term equilibrium interest rate and, 250

      • subsidized credit through, 47

    • Bribery, 317, 344

    • Bribes, 297

    • Bribesville, 332n8, 342–43

    • BRICs countries, 29, 96, 108

    • Brisbane Summit, 346

    • Broad National Consumer Price Index (IPCA), 248

    • Budget midgets, 336

    • Budget process

      • improving, 179, 181–82

      • MTEF for, 179–82

      • rigidities in, 176–77

    • Budget restrictions

      • personnel expenditures and, 214

      • on subnational entities, 213–14

    • Business cycle, neutral rate model and, 243–44

    • Business regulation, improving, 51

    • Byskov, Steen, 13, 267

    C

    • Caixa Economica, 16, 45

    • Caixa Economica Federal (CEF), 88, 269, 335n17

      • earmarked lending and, 270

      • recapitalization, 274

      • solvency pressure, 275

    • Camargo Correa, 336

    • CAMEX. See Foreign Trade Chamber

    • Canada, natural resource revenue sharing, 168

    • Cantone, Raffaele, 348

    • Canuto, Otaviano, 347

    • Capacidade de Pagamento (CAPAG), 211, 212

    • Capital account liberalization, 90

    • Capital allocation, inefficiencies in, 268

    • Capital expansion, 56–57

    • Capital markets, impaired access to, 31–32

    • Cardoso, Fernando Henrique, 16

    • Carrière-Swallow, Yan, 13, 279

    • Car Wash. See Lava Jato corruption scandal

    • Cash balances, 217f

    • Castelar Pinheiro, Armando, 5–6, 41

    • CBB. See Central Bank of Brazil

    • CEF. See Caixa Economica Federal

    • Central America, GDP growth in, 141

    • Central bank credibility, 34

    • Central Bank of Brazil (Banco Central do Brasil/BCB/CBB), 13, 246

      • anti-money laundering responsibilities, 316

      • earmarked credit data publication, 272

      • policy guidance, 286

      • transparency framework, 279–81

    • Central banks

      • communication by, 283–88

      • earmarked lending and regulations of, 272

      • inflation expectations and transparency of, 281–83

      • minutes, 285n10, 287

      • Neo-Fisherian effects in models of, 256n1

      • press releases from, 284–86, 284f

      • transparency framework, 279–81

    • Central bank transparency index, 279, 280f

    • Certificado de Depósito Interbancário, 274

    • CGU. See Federal Comptroller General

    • Chiesa, Mario, 332, 333

    • Chile, FTA network, 103

    • China, 328

    • Christian Democrats, 344

    • Clean Hands. See Mani Pulite

    • COAF. See Conselho de Controle de Atividades Financeiras

    • Cobb-Douglas production function, 42n2

    • CoC. See Control of Corruption

    • Collor, Fernando, 336

    • Collorgate, 336

    • Colombia

      • natural resource revenue sharing, 168

      • royalty distribution in, 159

    • Colonial origins, corruption and, 309, 309f

    • Commodity booms

      • channels of propagation through economy, 145–48

      • fiscal channels and, 147

      • fiscal decentralization and, 159–61

      • labor market channels and, 145, 147

      • microdata case studies on, 150–54

      • poverty, inequality, and, 144–59

      • regional differences in impacts of, 154–59, 155f

      • regional macroeconomic evidence, 148–49, 148f, 149f

      • social indicators and, 144–45

    • Commodity cycles

      • fiscal buffers and, 162

      • inequality and, 161

    • Commodity prices, social progress and, 161–64

    • Commodity trade, 9, 10f

      • end of super-cycle in, 21

      • poverty rates and, 142–43, 143f, 144f

      • social gains during boom in, 140–44

    • Communication

      • by central banks, 283–88

      • clarity of, 285–86, 285f

      • credibility and, 288

      • forward-looking language in, 286

      • market sensitivity to, 287

      • minutes, 285n10, 287

      • tone of, 287, 287f

    • Competition

      • institutional frameworks and, 69

      • trade openness and, 103, 104–5

    • Competitive pressure, 51

    • Comptroller General audits, 188

    • Confndustria, 343

    • Conselho de Controle de Atividades Financeiras (Financial Activities Control Center/COAF), 316

    • Constitution of 1988, 173–74

      • tax decentralization and, 209

    • Consumer price index (CPI), 24, 248, 289

      • cross-country comparisons and, 131

      • expenditures indexed to, 26

    • Contingenciamentos, 26

    • Control of Corruption indicator (CoC), 299, 299f, 300f, 301, 303f, 304f, 306t, 343

    • Coppe Alcaraz, Fernando, 7, 95

    • Corruption, 25

      • as bad Nash equilibrium, 297–98

      • collective action hurdle in fighting, 298–99

      • colonial origins and, 309, 309f

      • costs of, 326, 343–44

      • criminal-justice system and, 348

      • defining, 296

      • demand side, 296

      • economic development and, 308–11

      • economic growth and, 343–44

      • in emerging markets, 295, 300f, 301

      • endogeneity problem, 308

      • ethnolinguistic fragmentation and, 309–10, 310f

      • excess, 301–2, 303f, 304f

      • fighting, 13–14, 312

      • future improvements, 321–22

      • governance weakness and, 342

      • grease-in-the-wheels hypothesis of, 296–97

      • growth correlations and, 302–8, 304f, 305f, 305t, 307f, 307t

      • income levels and, 301–2, 302t

      • indices of, 80, 299–300, 299f, 306

      • institutional framework against, 315–18

      • institution quality and, 325

      • institutions and, 326–27

      • Italy and Mani Pulite investigation, 342–46

      • in Latin America, 300f, 301, 302

      • Lava Jato (“Car Wash”) scandal, 218

      • measurement difficulty of, 343

      • measuring, 299–308

      • mitigation measures, 319–21

      • Petrobras and, 20, 22, 24

      • prevention and repression balance, 347–48

      • as rational crime, 338

      • reducing, 37

      • risks for, 318–19

      • secrecy and investigation of, 334n13

      • supply side, 296

      • See also Mani Pulite (Clean Hands) investigations

    • Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI), 299, 299f, 311, 343

    • Cost of living adjustment, 130–32

    • Cottarelli, Carlo, 342

    • Council of Ministers, 333

    • Countercyclical stimulus, credit as, 268

    • Court of Accounts, 177, 188, 212

      • personnel expenditures and, 214

    • Court systems, efficiency in, 331–32

    • CPI. See Consumer price index;

    • Corruption Perceptions Index

    • CPI inflation, 5f, 24

    • Craxi, Bettino, 333

    • Credibility

      • central bank, 34, 247, 247n6

      • communication and, 288

      • fiscal policy and, 22–23

      • macroeconomic policy and, 20

      • policy uncertainty and, 22

      • transparency and, 281–82, 282n4, 288

    • Credit

      • banking sector reform and, 89–90

      • impaired access to, 31–32

      • improving efficiency of, 36–37

      • subsidies embedded in, 268

    • Credit market interventions

      • costs of, 268, 273–76, 274f

      • earmarked credit, 269–72

      • effectiveness of, 272–73

      • public banks and, 268, 269–70, 272

      • risks in, 273–76

    • Credit markets, 267

      • earmarked credit effects on, 276

      • mitigating lack of, 268

    • Credit subsidies, 47

    • Cross-correlation functions, 257, 264f

    • Cuevas, Alfredo, 5, 11, 15, 191

    • Currency depreciation, 16

    D

    • Davigo, Piercamillo, 348

    • Debt anchors, 184

    • Debt burden, of states, 209, 214

    • Debt ceilings, 184–85, 185n11

    • Debt refinancing, 209

    • Debt relief, retroactive, 211–12

    • Debt-rescheduling arrangements, 210

    • Decentralization, 174

      • fiscal rules and, 185–86

      • of tax competency, 209

    • Deficit bias, 182, 183

    • Demand side corruption, 296

    • De Mello, João Manuel Pinho, 6, 55

    • Democracy, transition to, 173

    • Demographic disequilibria point, 191

    • Demographic growth, 42, 43f

    • Demographic outlook, 195–96, 195n6, 196f, 197f

    • Demographic transition, 56, 58

    • Demographic trends, 191

    • Deposit-collection-based earmarked lending, 272

    • Diffusion index, 246, 247f

    • Digital Inclusion Program, 101

    • Di Pietro, Antonio, 344–45

    • Directed lending, 267

    • Direct subsidies, 270, 271

    • Discretionary spending, 176f

    • Disinflation episodes, 259–60, 261f

    • Doing Business Indicators (World Bank), 32, 68

    • Doing Business report (World Bank), 342

    • Domestic financial reforms, 90

    • Duarte, Isabela, 6, 55

    • Durable goods, access to, 129, 130f

    • Dutch disease, 147

    • Dutz, Mark, 6, 55

    E

    • Earmarked credit

      • costs and risks of, 273–76

      • free market for credit and, 276

      • funds dedicated to, 270, 270f

      • interventions, 269–72

      • monetary policy transmission effects, 276

      • reforms to, 268–69, 276–78

      • remuneration for, 274, 275f

    • Earmarked lending

      • credit rate regulation, 272

      • deposit-collection-based, 272

      • differential reserve requirements for, 272

    • Economic cycles

      • fiscal policies exacerbating, 183

      • reform priorities and, 90–91

    • Economic development

      • corruption and, 296–97, 308–11

      • endogeneity problem, 308

      • institution quality and, 325

      • sustainable, 58

    • Economic growth, 3–4, 4f, 57f

      • corruption and, 13, 343–44

      • in Italy, 327–31

      • labor and capital expansion and, 56

      • productivity and, 5–8

      • public support for free markets and, 82

    • Economic integration, 51

    • Economic liberalization, 16

    • Economic performance, 42–44

    • Economic reforms, 3

    • Economic sectors, 63

      • inflation responses across, 256

      • regional concentrations of, 117

      • tariff protection and, 117

      • trade liberalization and labor movements between, 116

    • Education, 43–44, 44n4

    • Egmont Group of Financial Intelligence Units, 317

    • Electrical infrastructure, 30

    • Electricity tariffs, 23

    • Eletrobras, 16, 177

    • Eletronucloear, 335n17

    • Emerging markets

      • corruption in, 295, 300f, 301

      • interest rates in, 12

    • Employment

      • in Bolivia, 150–51, 152f

      • distribution of, 231, 231f

      • need for reform, 225–30

      • in Peru, 150–51, 152f

      • sector-level, 55

    • ENCCLA. See Estratégia Nacional de Combate à Corrupção e à Lavagem de Dinheiro

    • Entrepreneurship, institutional

    • frameworks and, 69

    • Estevão Filho, Marcello de Moura, 7, 95

    • Estratégia Nacional de Combate à

      • Corrupção e à Lavagem de Dinheiro (National Strategy to Combat Corruption and Money Laundering/ ENCCLA), 316, 318–21

    • Ethnolinguistic fragmentation, 309–10, 310f

    • Eurobarometer survey, 343

    • Ex ante real policy rate, 243, 243f, 244f

    • Excess corruption, 301–2, 303f, 304f

    • Exchange rates, 24f, 33

    • Expected inflation, 255

    • Expenditure caps, 34–35

      • wage bill and, 227

    • Expenditure ceilings, 185, 185t

    • Expenditure growth limits, 184

    • Expenditure rationalization, 24–25, 27

    F

    • False accounting, 345

    • FAT. See Workers’ Support Fund

    • FATF. See Financial Action Task Force

    • Fator previdenciario, 22, 195, 195n5, 198

    • Federal Comptroller General (CGU), 319

    • Federal Congress, parties represented in, 26

    • Federal government

      • civilian payroll summary, 231t

      • skills and pay ranges, 232

      • wage differentials by entity, 233, 233f

      • workforce, 230, 232–34

    • Federal Savings Bank, 88

    • Federal spending cap, 24–25

    • Federal tax system, inefficiencies in, 32

    • Fertility rates, 195, 196f

    • FGTS. See Severance Indemnity Fund

    • Financial Action Task Force (FATF), 316n3, 317, 317n7, 318, 318n22, 319–21

    • Financial Activities Control Center. See

      • Conselho de Controle de Atividades

      • Financeiras

    • Financial intermediation, 270

    • Financial markets, productivity and, 268

    • Financial System Stability Assessments, 318

    • FIRJAN Fiscal Management Index, 208

    • Fiscal adjustment programs, 210–11

    • Fiscal Appeals Administrative Board, 335n17

    • Fiscal buffers, commodity cycles and, 162

    • Fiscal crisis

      • fiscal rules and, 184

      • main factors in, 26–28

      • in subnational governments, 207–8

    • Fiscal decentralization, 159–61

    • Fiscal discipline, 10–12

      • MTEFs and, 180

    • Fiscal expansionism, 45

    • Fiscal frameworks, 175–78

      • MTEFs and, 181

      • rules-based, 182–86

    • Fiscal imbalances, 207

    • Fiscal institutions

      • defning, 175n5

      • evolution of, 173–75

      • strengthening frameworks for, 178–90

    • Fiscal planning, weaknesses in, 178

    • Fiscal policy

      • deterioration of, 20

      • incentives funded through, 47

      • procyclical, 183

      • recession of 2014–2017 and, 22–23

    • Fiscal Recovery Council, 212

    • Fiscal Recovery Regime (Regime de

      • Recuperação Fiscal/RRF), 212, 218

    • Fiscal reforms, 45, 50

    • Fiscal Responsibility Law (FRL), 3, 16, 20, 26, 174n4

      • creation of, 174–75, 210

      • debt rescheduling and, 210

      • fiscal risk management and, 188

      • fiscal rules and, 182, 186

      • personnel expenditures and, 214, 223

      • procyclical provisions, 210–11

      • Rio de Janeiro and, 218

      • subnational entities and, 207

      • wage bill and, 227

    • Fiscal risks

      • of credit market interventions, 273–75

      • improving management of, 188–90

    • Fiscal rules, 182–86, 185t

      • policy objectives of, 182, 184

    • Fiscal shocks, 184

    • Fiscal strategy

      • formalization of process, 179

      • publication of, 181

    • Fiscal system, inefficiencies of, 28

    • Fiscal targets, 174, 210

    • Fiscal transparency, 186–88

      • external assessments of, 220

    • Fiscal Transparency Evaluation, 177, 187

    • Fisher equation, 255

    • Floating debt, 177

    • Focus survey, 242, 246

    • Fondo de Amparo al Trabajador. See Workers’ Support Fund

    • Foreign exchange (FX), 23

    • Foreign Trade Chamber (CAMEX), 108

    • Forward-looking language, 286

    • Forza Italia, 333

    • Free market economy, public support for, 81–83, 81f, 82t

    • Free trade agreements (FTAs), 102–3

    • Freire, Nayara, 11

    • FRL. See Fiscal Responsibility Law

    • FTAs. See Free trade agreements

    • Fuel prices, 20, 23

    • Fundo de Garantia do Tempo de Serviço. See Severance Indemnity Fund

    • FX. See Foreign exchange

    G

    • G7. See Group of Seven

    • GAFILAT. See Grupo de Acción Financiera de Latinoamérica

    • Gas megacampos, 156, 158

    • GDP

      • average growth in Latin America of, 141, 142f

      • in Euro Area, 328f

      • government employee compensation as percentage of, 224, 224f, 226, 226f, 227f

      • in Italy, 328f

      • pension expenditure as percent of, 193, 193f

      • poverty headcount ratio changes and, 141–42, 142f

      • regional differences in per capita, 127, 128f

      • trade ratio to, 98, 99f

    • GDP contractions, 41

    • GDP growth, 4, 4f, 13, 29f, 42, 43f

      • during Lula presidency, 17

      • per capita, 1902–2017, 21f

      • potential for, 60f

    • General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, 101

    • Geographic concentration, 111

    • Ginicoefficient, 8, 9f, 127, 129f, 132f, 139, 140f

      • commodity exports and, 143f, 144f

      • declines in, 141, 141f

      • during Lula administration, 18

      • state variations in, 133

    • Gini index, RPI-adjusted, 132

    • Global Competitiveness Index, 104, 104t, 105t

    • Global financial crisis, 12, 15, 18–21, 241

      • countercyclical stimulus during, 268

      • credit market interventions during, 272

      • trade barriers after, 29

    • Global Initiative for Fiscal Transparency, 187

    • Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), 122–23

    • Global value chains, 47

      • participation in, 105–6, 106f, 107f

    • Góes, Carlos, 7, 8, 111, 127

    • Goncalves, Carlos, 13, 295

    • Goods trade, 29

    • Governance, improving, 13–14

    • Government bonds, 19

    • Government employees

      • differences in pay, 225, 225f

      • education levels of, 226f

    • Government expenditures, 27f, 28f

    • Government pay

      • disparities in, 225, 225f

      • growth in, 228

      • wage premiums, 229–30, 229f

    • Government Procurement Agreement (WTO), 106–7

    • Government procurement rules, 100

    • Gross public debt, 182–83, 183f, 189

      • fiscal rules for controlling, 184

    • Group of Seven (G7), 342

      • Brisbane Summit of 2014, 346

    • Growth

      • corruption correlations with, 302–8, 304f, 305f, 305t, 307f, 307t

      • demographic, 42, 43f

      • factors weakening, 28–32

    • Grupo de Acción Financiera de Latinoamérica (GAFILAT), 317–21

    • GTAP. See Global Trade Analysis Project Guatemala, 296

    H

    • Headline inflation, 256, 256f, 257f, 265f

    • Household incomes, 131, 133

      • in Bolivia, 151t

      • in Peru, 151t

    • Housing subsidies, 277

    • Human capital, 56–57

    • Hydrocarbon production, 154

      • labor impacts, 156, 157t

    • Hydrocarbon royalties, 168–69

    • Hyperinflation, 15, 174

    I

    • IBGE. See Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatistica

    • ICPA. See Broad National Consumer Price Index

    • ICTs. See Information and

    • communication technologies

    • IDH. See Impuesto directo a los hidrocarburos

    • Import duties, 7, 113

    • Import-substitution industrialization, 44

    • Impuesto directo a los hidrocarburos (IDH), 168

    • Income distribution, 129, 129f

      • between-state, 133

      • regional differences in, 133

      • within-region, 134, 135f

      • within-state, 133

    • Income inequality

      • declines in, 127

      • reducing, 139

      • regional differences in, 127, 128f

      • in states, 134

    • Income levels, corruption and, 301–2, 302t

    • Income statistics, 130

    • Industrial, Technological and Foreign Trade Policy Program (PITCE), 46n6

    • Industrial policy, instruments of, 46–47

    • Inequality, 8–9, 9f

      • between-state, 133

      • commodity cycles and, 161

      • cost of living adjustment and measuring, 130–32

      • overall trends in, 129, 129f, 130f

      • pension system and, 203

      • trends in states, 132–36, 133f

    • Inflation

      • achieving lower, 258–60

      • central bank transparency and expectations about, 281–83

      • channels of influence on, 255

      • cross-correlations with interest rate, 264f

      • expectations, 13

      • expenditure growth limits and, 184

      • interest rates and, 12, 255

      • responses to policy rate changes, 265f

    • Inflation gaps, 243, 245–47, 246f

    • Inflation surprises, 245–47, 247f

    • Inflation-targeting framework, 262

    • Inflation targets, 34, 246, 260, 261f

      • responses to changes in, 259, 259f

    • Informality, 48–49

    • Informatics Law, 100

    • Information and communication technologies (ICTs), 330, 337

    • Infrastructure

      • economic growth limited by, 30–31, 31f

      • improving, 37

      • investment in, 31–32

      • qualitative indicators, 33f

    • Inovar-Auto Program, 100, 101, 108

    • Institutions

      • corruption and, 326–27

      • Mani Pulite reaction and, 332

      • quality of, 325

    • Instituto Brasileiro de Geografa e Estatistica (IBGE), 191

    • Interacted panel vector autoregression (IPVAR), 281, 289–91

    • Interest rates

      • channels of inflation influence by, 255

      • cross-correlations with inflation, 264f

      • in emerging markets, 12

      • forecast errors about, 283

      • global, 248

      • headline inflation correlation with, 257f

      • inflation and, 12, 255

      • long-term equilibrium real, 248, 249t, 250, 250f

      • Ramsey model for neutral rate, 242–47

      • regulated, 268

      • responses to changes in, 259, 259f

      • short-term predictability of decisions, 283

      • transparency and room to maneuver in, 282

    • Interest rate shocks, 258

    • Intergovernmental transfer system, 209

    • International Budget Partnership, 187

    • International Commission against Impunity, 296

    • International Country Risk Guide, 311

    • International Crisis Risk Guide, 80

    • International trade, 112–13, 114f

      • Brazil integration into, 96–98, 97f

    • Investigations, politics and, 347

    • Investment, 42

      • contraction in, 21

      • by states, 216, 217f

    • Investments, perception influencing, 343

    • Investment/saving curve (IS curve), 263

    • Investment Support Program, 270

    • IPVAR. See Interacted panel vector autoregression

    • IS curve. See Investment/saving curve

    • Italia dei Valori, 345

    • Italy

      • anti-corruption efforts in, 341–48

      • corruption and Mani Pulite investigation, 342–46

      • economic stagnation, 327–31

      • managerial practices, 330

      • productivity in, 327–28

      • scale of corruption in, 343

      • Worldwide Governance Indicators and, 329

    • IT goods, tariffs on, 108

    J

    • JBS, 320

    • Judiciary, efficiency of, 331

    K

    • Karpowicz, Izabela, 8, 11, 12, 127, 191, 223

    L

    • LA5 countries, 29

    • Labor allocation, inefficiencies from, 62

    • Labor census, 122

    • Labor expansion, 56–57

    • Labor force participation rate, 56

      • pension reform and, 200

    • Labor formality, 154, 224

    • Labor income, in Bolivia, 150–51, 151f

    • Labor Law, reform of, 109

    • Labor markets

      • in Bolivia, 158–59, 159f

      • commodity boom spillovers through, 145, 147, 158–59, 159f

      • fiscal space considerations in reforms of, 89

      • policies for trade liberalization

      • adjustment, 118–20, 120f

      • product market reforms facilitating reforms in, 90

      • reforms, 80

      • regional, 7, 115–18

      • structural reforms and, 77, 78f

      • trade liberalization and, 114–18

    • Labor productivity, 58, 59f

      • in Italy, 327–28

      • tariff declines and, 114

    • Labor reforms, 37

    • Lagarde, Christine, 342, 343

    • Latin America

      • corruption levels in, 300f, 301, 302

      • public investment and wage bill in, 227, 228f

      • social gains during commodity boom in, 140–44

    • Latin Barometer Survey, 80, 81, 83, 85

    • Lava Jato (“Car Wash”) corruption scandal, 218, 295, 320, 325, 335–37, 341, 346–48

    • LCRs. See Local content rules

    • LDO. See Annual Budget Guidelines Law

    • Legal system

      • prioritization of reforms, 88

      • public opinions of, 85–86, 86f

      • public support for reforms in, 85

      • reforms, 80

      • structural reforms and, 77, 78f

    • Legislative system, structural reform priorities and, 88–89, 89t

    • Lei de Diretrizes Orçamentárias. See

    • Annual Budget Guidelines Law

    • Leoni, Eduardo, 7, 111

    • Letras de Credito Agropecuario. See Agricultural letters of credit

    • Letras de Credito Imobiliario. See Real estate letters of credit

    • Lifetime net pension benefits, 230

    • Lins, Paulo de Carvalho, 5–6, 41

    • Local content production requirements, 7, 47

    • Local content rules (LCRs), 100–101

      • reforms for, 108

    • Local governments, commodity boom windfalls and, 160

    • Long-term equilibrium real interest rate, 248, 249t, 250, 250f, 251f

    • Long-term Fisher equation, 258–59

    • Long-term rate reform, 267

    • Lula da Silva, Ignacio, 16–19, 46, 46n6, 47, 335, 337

    • Luxembourg Income Study data set, 229–30, 229f

    M

    • Macroeconomic instability, 13

    • Macroeconomic policies, unbalanced, 45

    • Macroeconomic policy institutions, 15

    • evolution at end of 20th century, 16

    • Macroeconomic policy management, deterioration of, 20

    • Macroeconomic policy tripod, 16

    • Macroeconomic stabilization plans, 209

    • Mafia, 333

    • Mafia Capitale inquiry, 345

    • Malpensa Airport, 344

    • Malta, Vivian, 11, 191

    • Managerial practices, 330

    • Manaus Free Trade Zone, 100

    • Mandatory spending, 176, 176f, 179

    • municipal fiscal crisis and, 208

    • Mani Pulite (Clean Hands) investigations, 325, 326, 330–34, 341

      • corruption in Italy and, 342–46

      • judges on, 342–43

      • political impact of, 344

      • statute of limitations and effectiveness of, 345

    • Manufacturing

      • in Bolivia, 151

      • in Peru, 151

      • policies favoring, 46–48

      • productivity in, 47, 63

    • Manufacturing Development Policy Program, 46n6

    • Market economy, public support for, 81–83, 81f, 82t

    • Market reforms, incomplete, 44–46

    • Market uncertainty, 15

    • Matheson, Troy, 12, 255

    • Medas, Paulo, 10, 173

    • Medium-term expenditure framework (MTEF), 179–82, 185, 188

    • Medium-term fiscal consolidation, 34–36

    • Mendes Tavares, Marina, 11, 191

    • Mensaláo, 336

    • Merces, Guillerme, 11

    • Merchant Marine Fund, 271

    • Mercosur, 36, 96, 103, 107

    • Merida Anti-Corruption Convention, 317

    • Meritocratic managerial practices, 330

    • Merli, Alessandro, 14, 341

    • Messa, Alexandre, 7, 111

    • Mexico, 295

      • FTA network, 103

    • MFN tariff. See Most favored nation tariff

    • Micro businesses, 49

    • Microregions, 116, 117/

    • Milan

      • construction costs and corruption in, 344

      • expo corruption investigation, 345

    • Mineral production, 154

      • labor impacts, 156

    • Minha Casa Minha Vida, 272

    • Minimum wage, 127

      • pension reform and, 202

    • Mining royalties, 168–69

    • Ministry of Finance, 212

      • anti-money laundering responsibilities, 316

    • Ministry of Industry, Foreign Trade and Services, 120

    • Ministry of Labor, 122

    • Ministry of Mining, 154

    • Minutes, 285n10

      • tone in, 287

    • Monetary policy

      • central bank credibility and effectiveness of, 247, 247n6

      • earmarked credit effects on transmission of, 276

      • identifying shocks from, 258

      • near-term, 33–34

      • predictability of, 283, 284f

      • public bank lending and, 20

      • rules, 263

      • surprises in, 283, 284f

      • tightening cycle, 23

      • transmission of, 12

      • transparency about objectives, 281

      • transparency and room to maneuver in, 282

    • Money laundering, 14

      • future improvements, 321–22

      • institutional framework against, 315–18

      • international cooperation and treaty obligations, 317–18

      • mitigation measures, 319–21

      • risks for, 318–19

    • Money market rate, 274

    • Montanelli, Indro, 333

    • Montes, Luis Gustavo, 7, 111

    • Moro, Sergio, 335, 336, 341, 348

    • Mortality rates, 196f

    • MOSE tidal barriers, corruption investigation of, 345

    • Most favored nation (MFN) tariff, 29

    • MTEF. See Medium-term expenditure framework

    • Mulas-Granados, Carlos, 11, 191

    • Multiyear expenditure ceiling rule, 185

    • Municipalities

      • expenditure responsibilities, 174

      • federal refinancing of debt, 209

    • My House My Life, 273, 277

    N

    • Nash equilibrium, corruption as, 297–98

    • National Accounting Tribunal, 20

    • National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels, 154

    • “National champions” policy, 47, 69

      • subsidies embedded in credit and, 268

    • National Economic Activities Register, 123

    • National Monetary Council, 262, 272

    • National price indices, 130

    • National Program for Access to Technical Education and Employment (Pronatec), 119, 120

    • National Strategy to Combat Corruption and Money Laundering. See Estratégia Nacional de Combate à Corrupção e à Lavagem de Dinheiro

    • National Treasury, 19, 210–12

    • Natural resource curse, 147

    • Natural resources

      • commodity boom impacts and, 154–56

      • impacts of boom in, 156–59, 157t

      • local impact of booms in, 166–67

      • redistribution of windfalls from, 159

      • revenue sharing, 167–69

      • subnational impacts of windfalls from, 160

      • value of production, 154, 156f

    • Near-term policy mix, 32–34

    • Neo-Fisherian effect, 255–56

    • Neutral rate

      • macroeconomic fundamental changes and, 247–51

      • Ramsey model for, 242–47, 243f

      • short- and long-term conceptions of, 247n7

      • in short term, 250–51

    • New Development Bank, 96, 108

    • New matrix of economic policies, 19

    • New York Terrorist Financing Convention, 317

    • Nominal interest rate, 255, 256

    • Nominal policy rate, 242

    • Non-commodity tradables sector, commodity booms and, 147

    • Noninterest expenditure caps, 34–35

    • Nontariff barriers, 7, 29

    • Nontradables sector, commodity booms and, 147

    • North, Douglass, 325

    • Norway, natural resource revenue sharing, 168

    O

    • Odebrecht, 295, 297, 320, 336

    • Odebrecht, Emilio, 335

    • OECD. See Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

    • Offshore oil and gas, labor demand and, 156

    • Oil prices, 20

      • collapse of, 22

      • wage bill and, 20n6

    • Old-age dependency ratio, 191, 192f, 196, 197f

    • Olympic Games of 2016, 208, 218

    • Omertà (code of silence), 333

    • Operation Anaconda, 336

    • Operation Sanguessuga, 336

    • O Programa de Integração Social e o Programa de Formação do Patrimônio do Servidor Público, 271

    • Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), 36, 96, 106, 162n35, 346

      • average retirement age in, 194

      • Bribery Convention, 317

      • import tariffs and, 108

      • pension replacement rate averages, 193

    • Overbilling, 335

    P

    • Pacific Alliance, 107

    • PADIS, 101

    • PADTV, 101

    • PAFs. See Restructuring and Fiscal Adjustment Programs

    • Palermo Convention, 317

    • Paolazzi, Luca, 343

    • Paoli, Letizia, 342, 345

    • Pareto, Vilfredo, 342

    • Partido do Movimernto Democrático Brasileiro (Brazilian Democratic Movement Party/PMDB), 335

    • Partido dos Trabalhadores (Workers Party/ PT), 335

    • Partido Progressista (Progressive Party/ PP), 335

    • Penn World Table database, 63

    • Pension coverage, 193

    • Pension expenditures, 192

      • as percent of GDP, 193, 193f

      • population aging and, 196–98, 197f, 198f

    • Pension reform, 25, 192, 195

      • distributional effects of, 203–4

      • increasing revenues, 200

      • labor force participation and, 200

      • options for, 200–202, 201f

      • outcomes of proposed, 204, 205f

      • reducing replacement rates, 200–201

      • retirement age, 200

    • Pension subsidies, inequality in, 203

    • Pension system, 11, 191, 193–95

      • benchmarks of key indicators, 193, 194t

      • demographic outlook and, 195–96, 196f

      • expenditure on, 173

      • inequality and, 203

      • long-term spending trends, 198–99, 199f

      • spending on, 26–27

    • Perception, 343

    • Perrelli, Roberto, 12, 241

    • Personnel expenditures, 214–16, 215f

      • FRL and, 214, 223

      • rightsizing, 223

      • in Rio de Janeiro, 218, 219f

    • Peru

      • employment, 150–51, 152f

      • household income, 151t

      • household survey data, 150–51

      • natural resource revenue sharing, 168–69

      • natural resource windfall redistribution in, 159

      • provincial revenues, 160

      • Shapley decompositions for, 151–52, 153f

    • Pesquisa National de Amostra de Domicílios (PNAD), 128, 131–33, 136

    • Petrobras, 16, 19–20, 23, 177, 295, 335, 336

      • corruption and, 20, 22, 24

      • expansion program, 21–22

    • Pew Global Attitudes and Trends Survey, 80, 85

    • Phillips curve, 263

    • Physical capital, 57

    • Pinotti, Cristina, 14, 325

    • Pio, Carlos, 7, 111

    • PIS/COFINS, 36

    • PIS-PASEP (O Programa de Integração Social e o Programa de Formação do Patrimônio do Servidor Público), 271

    • PITCE. See Industrial, Technological and Foreign Trade Policy Program

    • Plano Real, 3, 16, 209

    • PMDB. See Partido do Movimernto Democrático Brasileiro

    • PNAD. See Pesquisa National de Amostra de Domicílios

    • Policy guidance, 286

    • Policy interest rate, 23, 24f

      • earmarked loans and, 276

      • headline inflation and changes in, 257, 258f, 265f

      • responses to changes in, 265f

    • Policymaking and institutional framework, reforms in, 5

    • Policy mistakes, 15

    • Policy mix, near-term, 32–34

    • Policy rates, 256f

      • adjusting for business cycle, 244

      • transparency and decisions of, 280–81

    • Policy tripod, 3, 16

    • Policy uncertainty, 22

    • Political connections, 330

    • Political parties, 26, 333

    • Political payments, 333

    • Political representation, fragmentation of, 26

    • Political uncertainty, 3

    • Politics, investigations and, 347

    • Population aging

      • challenges from, 195–99

      • demographic outlook, 195–96, 196f, 197f

      • fiscal impact, 197–99

    • Poupanca, 270

    • Poupanca Rural, 270

    • Poverty cycle, 161

    • Poverty headcount ratio, 141f

      • commodity exports and, 142, 143f, 144f

      • Poverty rate, 8, 140f

      • commodity booms and, 147

      • commodity exports and, 142–43, 143f

      • natural resource production and, 154–56

      • reducing, 139, 141, 141f

      • regional differences in commodity boom impacts on, 154, 155f

    • PP. See Partido Progressista

    • PPP. See Purchasing power parity

    • Predicate offenses, 315

    • Press releases, 284–86, 284f

    • Previdência Rural (rural pension), 194

    • Price subsidies, 163

    • Primary expenditures, limits on growth of, 184

    • Privatization, 51

    • Procyclical policies, 183

      • in FRL, 210–11

    • Productivity, 29f

      • aggregate growth of, 56–60

      • alternative explanations for low, 62

      • determinants of, 55, 61

      • economic growth and, 5–8, 43

      • factors weakening, 28–32

      • financial markets and, 268

      • in Italy, 327–28

      • labor, 47, 58, 59f

      • manufacturing, 47, 63

      • measuring, 60

      • microfoundations of aggregate, 60–62

      • policy recommendations for, 50–52, 68–69

      • sectoral analysis of, 62–64, 66

      • sector-level, 55

      • structural reform gains in, 76–80

      • tariff rates and, 114

      • total factor, 6f

      • trade openness and, 103, 104–5

      • wage bill and, 224

    • Product market reforms, 77, 80

      • labor market reforms and, 90

      • public support for, 85

    • Programa de Fortalecimento da

      • Agricultura Familiar (PRONAF), 270, 273

      • recapitalizations by, 275

    • Programas de Reestruturação e de Ajuste Fiscal. See Restructuring and Fiscal Adjustment Programs

    • Progressive Party. See Partido Progressista

    • Pro-manufacturing policies, return of, 46–48

    • PRONAF. See Programa de Fortalecimento da Agricultura Familiar

    • Pronatec. See National Program for Access to Technical Education and Employment

    • Protectionism, 29, 99–101

      • See also Trade protection

    • PT. See Partido dos Trabalhadores

    • Public age-related spending, 191–92

    • Public banks, 45

      • credit market interventions and, 268, 269–70, 272

      • expansion in activity of, 19, 189

      • fiscal policy through, 178

      • fiscal transparency and, 187

      • lending expansion, 19n2

      • monetary policy and lending by, 20

      • trade policy and, 44

    • Public debt

      • gross, 182–83, 183f

      • reforms and management of, 188

    • Public Financial Management framework, modernizing, 181

    • Public office

      • abuse, 342

      • defining, 296

    • Public opinion

      • reform priorities and, 87–90

      • structural reforms and, 80–87

    • Public sector accounts, 187

    • Public sector spending, 45

    • Public sector wage bill, 223

    • Public spending, improving efficiency of, 181–82

    • Pulite, Mani, 14

    • Purchasing power parity (PPP), 63, 130

    R

    • RAIS. See Annual Social Information Report

    • Ramsey model, for neutral rate, 242–47, 243f

    • RAP. See Restos a pagar

    • Real estate letters of credit (Letras de Credito Imobiliario), 270

    • Real interest rate, 255

    • Real Plan, 44

    • Recapitalizations, 274–75

    • Recession of 1981, 3, 41

      • public finance impacts of, 11

    • Recession of 2014–2017, 21–25

    • Recession of 2015–2016, 208

    • Refinancing agreements, 209, 210

    • Reforms, 7

      • fiscal risk management and, 188

      • for LCRs, 108

      • priorities for, 87–90

      • successful process of, 76

      • wage and employment, 225–30

      • wage bill options, 234–36, 235t

    • Regime de Recuperação Fiscal. See Fiscal Recovery Regime

    • Regime Geral de Previdência Social (RGPS), 193–95

      • inequalities in, 203

    • Regimes Próprios de Previdência Social (RPPS), 193, 195

    • Regional development banks, recapitalization of, 274–75

    • Regional Development Constitutional Funds, 271, 272

    • Regional labor markets, 7

    • Regional tariffs, 117, 118f

      • calculating, 123–24

    • Regulated interest rates, 268

    • Rental spatial price deflator (RPI), 128, 131

      • Gini index adjusted for, 132

    • Rent prices, 128, 131, 132f

    • Renzi, Matteo, 341

    • Replacement rates, 200–201

    • “Report on the Forward Estimates of Budget Outlays” (Australia), 180

    • Repression, 347–48

    • Resource allocation, strategic, 180

    • Restos a pagar (RAP), 213

    • Restructuring and Fiscal Adjustment Programs (Programas de Reestruturação e de Ajuste Fiscal/ PAFs), 210

    • Retirement age, 193–94 raising, 200, 202

    • Retroactive debt relief, 211–12

    • Revenue earmarking, 176, 176f, 179

    • Revenue-sharing system, 174

    • RGPS. See Regime Geral de Previdência Social

    • Rio de Janeiro

      • debt-to-revenue ratio, 218

      • fiscal crisis, 208, 212

      • fiscal problems of, 218–19

      • personnel spending, 218, 219f

      • wage bill in, 20n6

    • Risk management, 188–90

    • Roache, Shaun K., 12, 241

    • Rousseff, Dilma, 19, 46, 47

      • impeachment of, 212

      • re-election of, 22–23

      • suspension of, 24

    • RPI. See Rental spatial price deflator

    • RPPS. See Regimes Próprios de Previdência Social

    • RRF. See Fiscal Recovery Regime

    • Rule of law, 329, 329f

    • “Rule of law” index, 311

    • Rules-based frameworks, 182–86

    • Rural lending, 270, 277

    • Rural pension. See Previdência Rural

    • Rural savings deposits, 270

    S

    • Salva ladri (thief saver), 334

    • Sandri, Damiano, 7, 75

    • Santander, 269f

    • Savings deposits, 270

    • SEA. See Socio Economic Accounts

    • Sector-level employment, 55

    • Sector-level productivity, 55

    • SELIC. See Sistema Especial de Liquidação e Custodia

    • Services, productivity in, 63

    • Severance Indemnity Fund (Fundo de Garantia do Tempo de Serviço/ FGTS), 269–71, 273, 274

    • Severino Law, 345

    • Shapley decompositions, 150, 150n19, 151–52, 153f, 154

    • Short-term equilibrium interest rate, 250–51, 251f, 251t

    • Simples tax regime, 49

    • Sistema Especial de Liquidação e Custodia (SELIC), 23, 242, 256, 276

    • Skills premium, 148, 149f

    • Small, inefficient companies, policies protecting, 48–50

    • Small businesses

      • informality and, 48–49

      • legal advantages for, 49

    • Small farmer programs, 268, 270

    • Social assistance programs, 18

    • Social benefits, 176

    • Social gains, during commodity boom, 140–44

    • Social housing, 268

    • Social inclusion policies, 127

    • Socialists, 344

    • Social programs, targeted, 127

    • Social progress, 8–9, 9f

      • commodity prices and, 161–64

    • Social rights, universalization of, 173

    • Social security reform, 35

      • distributional effects, 203–4

    • Social security system

      • deficit, 216f

      • spending on, 26–27

      • trends, 177f

    • Social spending, composition of, 163f, 164f

    • Socio Economic Accounts (SEA), 63

    • SOEs. See State-owned enterprises

    • Soto, Mauricio, 11, 12, 191, 223

    • Sovereign bonds

      • ratings of, 17, 23

      • yield curve for, 244

      • yield on, 16–17

    • Spatial price differences, 131, 132, 132f

    • Special Settlement and Custody System. See Sistema Especial de Liquidação e Custodia

    • Spending Review, 182

    • Spilimbergo, Antonio, 3, 5, 15

    • Srinivasan, Krishna, 3, 5, 13, 15, 295

    • State accounting conventions, 20

    • State-owned enterprises (SOEs), 44, 45

      • expansion of, 189

      • fiscal transparency and, 187

      • privatization of, 51

    • States

      • cash balances, 217f

      • debt burdens, 209, 214

      • expenditure responsibilities, 174

      • federal refinancing of debt, 209

      • fiscal challenges going forward, 216, 219–21

      • fiscal crisis and, 207–8

      • fiscal transparency assessments of, 220

      • investments by, 216, 217f

      • personnel expenditures, 214–16, 215f

      • recent fiscal performance, 213–16

      • repayment capacity of, 211

      • strengthening fiscal control over, 212

      • tax autonomy of, 208

      • wage bill variation across, 225

    • State Tax on the Circulation of Goods and Services, 36

    • Statistical filters, 243–45

    • STEM skills, 119

    • Structural gaps, 78, 78f

    • Structural reforms, 7, 36–37

      • econometric estimation of impact of, 78, 79, 79f, 79t

      • incompleteness of, 45

      • indicators, 77, 78f

      • legislative considerations in prioritizing, 88–89, 89t

      • other considerations in prioritizing, 90–91

      • productivity gains from, 76–80

      • public preferences for types of, 83–85, 83f, 84f, 84t, 85f

      • public support for, 80–87

      • sequencing, 90

      • successful process of, 76

    • Structural transformation, 44

    • Structural weakness, 15

    • Subnational bailouts, 11, 208–9, 220

    • Subnational framework

      • after crisis, 211–12

      • before crisis, 208–11

    • Subnational governments

      • budget restrictions on, 213–14

      • financial restrictions on, 189

      • fiscal crisis of, 207–8

      • fiscal data from, 220

      • rules-based institutional framework and, 186

      • tax bases devolved to, 174

      • wage bill share, 224–25

    • Subnational impacts of windfalls, from

      • natural resource booms, 160

    • Subsidies

      • for agriculture, 270, 273, 275

      • credit, 47

      • credit embedding, 268

      • direct, 270, 271

      • housing, 277

      • pension, inequality in, 203

      • price, 163

    • SUDAM case, 336

    • Summary documents, 187

    • Supersimples tax regime, 49

    • Supply side corruption, 296

    • Supply-side shock, 281

    • Sustainable economic development, 58

    • Sweden, fiscal strategy publication by, 181

    T

    • Tangentopoli. See Mani Pulite (Clean Hands) investigations

    • Targeted social programs, 127

    • Tariff rates, 7, 99–100, 100t

      • dispersion of structure of, 113

      • economic sector impacts of, 117

      • labor productivity and, 114

      • LCRs and, 101

      • microregion variations in, 117, 118f

    • Tariff reform, 108

    • Taxa de Juros de Longo Prazo (TJLP), 19, 36, 262, 267, 272, 274

    • Taxa de Longo Prazo (TLP), 13

    • Tax amnesties, 20

    • Tax autonomy, tax reform reducing, 208

    • Tax benefits, 48

    • Tax-exempt financial instruments, 270

    • Tax exemptions, 271–72

    • Tax reforms, 50–51 1966, 208

    • Tax simplification, 36

    • Telebras, 16

    • Temer, Michel, 24, 25, 337n23

    • “Ten Measures against Corruption” bill, 337

    • Terms-of-trade shocks, 281, 282

    • TFP. See Total factor productivity

    • TJLP. See Taxa de Juros de Longo Prazo

    • TLP. See Taxa de Longo Prazo

    • Tone, of communications, 287, 287f

    • Toscani, Frederik, 9, 139

    • Total factor productivity (TFP), 6f, 75

      • in Italy, 328, 329f

      • reform priorities and, 87–90

    • Trade

      • growth slowed by, 29–30

      • opening, 36

    • Trade agreements, 102–3, 102t, 109

    • Trade flows, 7

    • Trade integration, 29, 36, 51, 88

      • infrastructure and, 30–31

    • Trade liberalization, 7, 29, 103

      • domestic reform support and, 90

      • labor market policies for adjustment to, 118–20, 120f

      • labor movement and, 116

      • regional impacts, 111–12, 114–15

      • regional labor markets and, 115–18

      • sectoral effects, 114

    • Trade negotiations, focus of, 107

    • Trade openness, 7, 8f

      • gains from, 103–4

      • recent changes, 106–8

      • structural reforms and, 77, 78f

    • Trade policy

      • import-substitution model, 44

      • indicators for, 30f

      • variables in, 99–103

    • Trade protection, 112–13

      • regional impacts, 115

    • Trade reforms, 7, 80

    • Trade-to-GDP ratio, 98, 99f

    • Transparency

      • central bank communication and, 283–88

      • central bank framework for, 279–81

      • credibility and, 281–82, 282n4, 288

      • inflation expectations and, 281–83

    • Transparency International, 299, 299f, 300f, 311, 343

    • Transparency International report, 346

    • Transparency Portal, 230

    U

    • United Kingdom, MTEF preparation in, 181–82

    • United Nations Convention against Corruption, 342

    • United States

      • money laundering reports, 319

      • productivity in, 329f

    • Unpaid commitments

      • accumulation of, 216

      • cash balances net of, 217f

    • US Treasury bill rates, 24f

    V

    • Vale, 16

    • Vargas, Mauricio, 9, 139

    • Vector autoregressions (VARs), 256–58

      • See also Interacted panel vector autoregression

    • Vienna Convention, 317

    • Volker disinflation episode, 260, 261f

    W

    • Wage bill, 12, 223, 228f

      • expenditure caps and, 227

      • FRL and, 227

      • lessons from managing, 224

      • need for reform, 225–30

      • oil prices and, 20n6

      • as percent of GDP, 224, 224f, 226, 226f, 227f

      • procyclical nature of, 227

      • reform options, 234–36, 235t

      • state differences in, 225

      • subnational governments’ share of, 224–25

    • Wealth shocks

      • from commodity booms, 145–48

      • fiscal channels, 147

      • labor market channels, 145, 147

    • Werner, Alejandro, 5, 15

    • Within-state income distribution, 133

    • Worker retraining programs, 119–20, 120f

    • Workers’ Party, 16–17, 336

      • See also Partido dos Trabalhadores

    • Workers’ Support Fund (Fondo de Amparo al Trabajador/FAT), 270, 271, 274

    • World Bank, 329, 342

      • Doing Business Indicators, 32, 68

      • on pension subsidies, 203

      • See also Control of Corruption indicator

    • World Bank Enterprise Survey, 30

    • World Development Indicators, 343

    • World Economic Forum, 30, 330

      • Global Competitiveness Index, 104, 104t, 105t

    • World Governance Indicators, 80

    • World Trade Organization (WTO), 96

      • China entry into, 328

      • Government Procurement Agreement, 106–7

      • LCRs and, 100

    • Worldwide Governance Indicators, 329

    • WTO. See World Trade Organization

    • WTO Agreements, LCRs and, 100, 101

    • Yépez, Juan, 13, 279

    Y

    • Yield curves, 245f

      • inflation gaps and, 243

      • statistical filters and, 243–45

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