Chapter

Chapter 1. The CEMAC’s Macroeconomic Challenges

Author(s):
Bernardin Akitoby, and Sharmini Coorey
Published Date:
August 2012
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Author(s)
Bernardin Akitoby and Sharmini Coorey 

The Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) has earned significant revenue from oil production in past decades, but faces substantial economic growth and development challenges (Figure 1.1). Five of the six CEMAC countries are oil producers; oil accounts for about 40 percent of regional GDP and 85 percent of total exports. Oil revenue, channeled through government spending, is the main driver of economic activity, but volatile oil prices and procyclical fiscal policy have caused boom-and-bust cycles that have been exacerbated at times by rapidly rising and downwardly inflexible wages in a fixed exchange rate regime. Spending out of oil wealth has not led to more inclusive growth. Against the backdrop of high inequality, poverty and unemployment remain widespread. In particular, youth employment is lower than in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (Table 1.1). The region is unlikely to meet the Millennium Development Goals by 2015 (see Table 1.5).

Figure 1.1CEMAC: Growth and Development Challenges, 2005–10

Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook database; and IMF staff estimates.

Note: GCC = Gulf Cooperation Council; SSA = sub-Saharan Africa; WAEMU = West African Economic and Monetary Union.

1GCC countries include Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.

Table 1.1Social Indicators
Life Expectancy IndexEducation IndexYouth Employment1 (%)
CEMAC0.510.4147
WAEMU0.540.2856
SSA0.550.5049
Sources: United Nations Development Programme and the World Bank.Note: CEMAC = Central African Economic and Monetary Community; SSA = sub-Saharan Africa; WAEMU = West African Economic and Monetary Union.

Employment to population ratio, ages 15–24, total (%).

Sources: United Nations Development Programme and the World Bank.Note: CEMAC = Central African Economic and Monetary Community; SSA = sub-Saharan Africa; WAEMU = West African Economic and Monetary Union.

Employment to population ratio, ages 15–24, total (%).

Table 1.2Infrastructure Costs
Cost IndicatorCEMACSSAOther Developing Countries
Power tariffs

(US$ per kilowatt-hour)
0.200.230.08
Port container handling charges

(US$ per TEU)
210210115
Road freight tariffs

(US$ per ton-kilometer)
0.130.090.03
Mobile telephony

(US$ per basket per month)
15.111.89.9
Source: World Bank Africa Infrastructure Country Diagnostic, 2008.Note: TEU = Twenty-foot equivalent unit. Figures represent midpoint of range across regions.
Source: World Bank Africa Infrastructure Country Diagnostic, 2008.Note: TEU = Twenty-foot equivalent unit. Figures represent midpoint of range across regions.
Table 1.3CEMAC: Selected Partners’ Trade Shares(Percent of total trade)
Trade Partner1995200520101
European Union49.031.532.2
United States20.926.923.6
BRIC2.817.321.2
China2.114.716.4
India0.20.93.0
Intra-CEMAC2.41.11.2
Sources: IMF Direction of Trade Statistics; and IMF staff estimates.Note: BRIC = Brazil, Russia, India, and China

Estimates.

Sources: IMF Direction of Trade Statistics; and IMF staff estimates.Note: BRIC = Brazil, Russia, India, and China

Estimates.

Table 1.4Common External Tariffs: Selected Regions(Percent)
IndicatorCEMACWAEMUEACCOMESA
Average1691212
Maximum30202525
Minimum5000
Number of rates4433
Source: Compiled from regional communities’ websites.Note: COMESA = Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa; EAC = East African Community.
Source: Compiled from regional communities’ websites.Note: COMESA = Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa; EAC = East African Community.
Table 1.5CEMAC: Millenium Development Goals, 1990 and 2009
19902009
Goals and MeasuresCEMACSSACEMACSSA
Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
Employment to population ratio, 151, total (%)64646564
Employment to population ratio, ages 15–24, total (%)49504749
GDP per person employed (constant 1990 PPP $)2,493
Income share held by lowest 20%
Malnutrition prevalence, weight for age (% of children under 5)1825
Poverty gap at $1.25 a day (PPP) (%)
Poverty headcount ratio at $1.25 a day (PPP) (% of population)5851
Vulnerable employment, total (% of total employment)
Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education
Literacy rate, youth female (% of females ages 15–24)35587467
Literacy rate, youth male (% of males ages 15–24)63738277
Persistence to last grade of primary, total (% of cohort)5868
Primary completion rate, total (% of relevant age group)44515364
Total enrollment, primary (% net)657776
Goal 3: promote gender equality and empower women
Proportion of seats held by women in national parliaments (%)121118
Ratio of female to male primary enrollment (%)77848391
Ratio of female to male secondary enrollment (%)52766179
Ratio of female to male tertiary enrollment (%)184368
Share of women employed in the nonagricultural sector (% of total nonagricultural employment)
Goal 4: reduce child mortality
Immunization, measles (% of children ages 12–23 months)68575768
Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live births)971099281
Mortality rate, under-5 (per 1,000)153181146130
Goal 5: improve maternal health
Adolescent fertility rate (births per 1,000 women ages 15–19)119116
Births attended by skilled health staff (% of total)584444
Contraceptive prevalence (% of women ages 15–49)1521
Maternal mortality ratio (modeled estimate, per 100,000 live births)763870628650
Pregnant women receiving prenatal care (%)6971
Unmet need for contraception (% of married women ages 15–49)1324
Goal 6: Combat Hiv/Aids, malaria, and other diseases
Children with fever receiving antimalarial drugs (% of children under age 5 with fever)5434
Condom use, population ages 15–24, female (%)1419
Condom use, population ages 15–24, male (%)3536
Incidence of tuberculosis (per 100,000 people)126180298350
Prevalence of HIV, female (% ages 15–24)43
Prevalence of HIV, male (% ages 15–24)11
Prevalence of HIV, total (% of population ages 15–49)2255
Tuberculosis case detection rate (all forms)51456046
Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability
CO2 emissions (kg per PPP $ of GDP)0100
CO2 emissions (metric tons per capita)1111
Forest area (% of land area)53294926
Improved sanitation facilities (% of population with access)21273131
Improved water source (% of population with access)49497060
Marine protected areas (% of total surface area)20
Terrestrial protected areas (% of total surface area)1412
Goal 8: Develop a global partnership for development
Net ODA received per capita (current US$)94355849
Debt service (PPG and IMF only, % of exports, excluding workers’ remittances)2
Internet users (per 100 people)0037
Mobile cellular subscriptions (per 100 people)004133
Telephone lines (per 100 people)1112
Other
Fertility rate, total (births per woman)6655
GNI per capita, Atlas method (current US$)6655771,6351,126
GNI, Atlas method (current US$) (billions)2029758946
Gross capital formation (% of GDP)15182621
Life expectancy at birth, total (years)54505252
Literacy rate, adult total (% of people ages 15 and above)34536962
Population, total (billions)11
Trade (% of GDP)67528862
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators database.Note: CEMAC = Central African Economic and Monetary Community; CO2 = Carbon dioxide; GNI = Gross national income; HIV = Human immunodeficiency virus; ODA = Official development assistance; PPG = Public and publicly guaranteed; PPP = Purchasing power parity; SSA = sub-Saharan Africa.
Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators database.Note: CEMAC = Central African Economic and Monetary Community; CO2 = Carbon dioxide; GNI = Gross national income; HIV = Human immunodeficiency virus; ODA = Official development assistance; PPG = Public and publicly guaranteed; PPP = Purchasing power parity; SSA = sub-Saharan Africa.

The overriding challenge for the CEMAC, therefore, is to seize the opportunity provided by oil wealth to increase non-oil growth substantially and achieve a significant and durable reduction in poverty. Ensuring productive public investment, improving the business climate to strengthen competitiveness and stimulate private investment, and increasing labor market flexibility can make meaningful contributions to this effort. More fundamentally, high rates of poverty should be addressed by improving the quality of education and health spending and generating more employment opportunities in the non-oil sector.

To lay the foundation for the CEMAC’s economic and social development, the CEMAC authorities need to address four key macroeconomic challenges: (i) ensuring fiscal and external sustainability, (ii) fostering stronger non-oil growth, (iii) reforming the financial sector, and (iv) promoting trade and regional integration.

Ensuring Fiscal Sustainability and External Competitiveness

The non-oil primary deficit (NOPD) of the CEMAC area has widened in recent years, driven by public investment (Figure 1.2 and Table 1.2). The NOPD is projected to move closer to the sustainable level of about 5 percent of non-oil GDP, derived from the permanent income hypothesis (PIH) model,1 as investment tapers off in the medium term.

Figure 1.2Fiscal Sustainability

Sources: Staff estimates and projections.

Note: NOPD = non-oil primary deficit; PIH = permanent income hypothesis.

However, for assessing the fiscal stance of a natural resources producer investing in domestic physical capital, the PIH model is only relevant as a long-term benchmark, because it does not distinguish between capital and current expenditure and does not take into account development needs.2 For fiscal sustainability and optimality, public investment decisions need to be based on ensuring a rate of return at least equal to the rate on financial assets after allowing for differences in the risk profiles of the two types of investment. The government’s physical assets should yield, in risk-adjusted terms, at least the long-term real interest rate of investing in international financial assets (say, 2–3 percent) or an equivalent flow of social benefits to warrant consideration. The quality of investment, therefore, is critical. The risk that the governments may not realize adequate returns in the form of higher tax revenue or social benefits is significant in the CEMAC countries, because of poor governance and weak planning, implementation, monitoring, and maintenance of public investment projects (see “Accelerating Non-Oil Growth” below).

The fiscal position has important implications for external competitiveness. Spending of oil revenue has led to the appreciation of the real effective exchange rate (REER) in the context of a fixed exchange rate regime (Figure 1.3 and Box 1.1 on inflation), thus eroding the competitiveness of the noncommodity sectors. In itself, the REER appreciation may not be a serious concern if public investment produces an adequate rate of return and boosts productivity in non-commodity sectors. However, given the poor rates of return on past public investment in the CEMAC countries, the REER appreciation has likely constrained noncommodity growth and hurt employment.

Figure 1.3Exchange Rate Developments, 1990–2010

Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook database; and IMF African Department database.

Note: CEMAC = Central African Economic and Monetary Community; WAEMU = West African Economic and Monetary Union.

Policy and Reform Considerations

The PIH model is not optimal for capital-scarce developing countries like the members of the CEMAC (see Chapter 5). Given their large investment needs in economic and social infrastructure, focus must be placed on the quality and efficiency of public investment. To this end, public investment needs to be embedded in a realistic multiyear investment plan and the related annual budgets cast within a medium-term macroeconomic framework consistent with fiscal and external sustainability. Moreover, public investment plans and execution should be scrutinized to ensure that they yield, in risk-adjusted terms, a real return at least equal to the long-term real interest rate on financial assets.

Box 1.1Inflation in the CEMAC Area

One of the benefits of the monetary union and fixed exchange regime has been the generally low and stable inflation in the region, despite supply shocks and unbalanced fiscal positions. Caceres, Poplawski-Ribeiro, and Tartari (2011) use a data set including country-specific energy and food commodity indices to investigate inflation dynamics in four Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) member countries (Cameroon, the Central African Republic, Gabon, and the Democratic Republic of Congo) and in the CEMAC-4 region as a whole.1 The objective was to analyze the impact of commodity prices on domestic inflation and to disentangle the dynamics and interactions between noncore (food and energy) and core (all items in the consumer price index basket excluding food and energy) components of inflation.

The analysis suggests that the impact of commodity price shocks on inflation is significant. In most CEMAC countries, the largest effect of global food and fuel price movements occurs after four or five quarters in noncore inflation and then decays substantially over time. Second-round effects are significant only in Cameroon and to a lesser extent in the Republic of Congo. In Cameroon, the effects of a 1 percent increase in energy and food prices on core inflation are estimated to pass through and reach a peak at 0.32 percent after 10 quarters and at 0.14 percent after 14 quarters, respectively.

CEMAC: Core and Noncore CPI Inflation, 1996–2010

Source: Cacere, Poplawski-Ribeiro, and Tartari, 2011.

Note: CPI = consumer price index.

1 Equatorial Guinea and Chad are excluded from the analysis because of a lack of data on consumer price index components.

Accelerating Non-Oil Growth

Growth in the CEMAC’s non-oil sectors has been disappointing (Figure 1.4). Although the community has outperformed the West African Economic and Monetary Union, it has lagged behind sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) oil exporters. Non-oil growth’s downward trend has also led to fewer employment opportunities.

Figure 1.4Non-Oil GDP Growth

Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook database; and IMF African Department database.

Note: CEMAC = Central African Economic and Monetary Community; SSA = sub-Saharan Africa; WAEMU = West African Economic and Monetary Union.

Available evidence suggests that the CEMAC’s non-oil sector is constrained by inadequate infrastructure services (see Chapter 4). Costs associated with the use of infrastructure are very high because of insufficient and low-quality infrastructure and regulatory hurdles (Table 1.3). To accelerate non-oil growth, the oil-producing CEMAC countries have embarked on ambitious investment programs. However, given weak administrative capacity, rapid scaling up of investment has a high likelihood of compromising spending quality. The study in Chapter 3 suggests that in the past public investment has had low returns and little impact on economic growth in the region.

A poor business environment and low-quality health and education services have also constrained growth. According to the World Bank’s 2011 Doing Business Indicators, the CEMAC’s average ranking is lower than the SSA average (172 compared with 137 out of 183 countries). The CEMAC countries ranked very low, with Chad and the Central African Republic having the lowest rankings in the world, closely followed by the Republic of Congo.3 Areas in which member countries fared worst include starting a business, paying taxes, enforcing contracts, and trading across borders. Coupled with this unfriendly business environment, poor quality of health and education services has kept labor productivity low and explains the limited progress in raising human development indicators.

Policy and Reform Considerations

The following reforms appear critical to sustaining non-oil growth:

  • Refocusing public investment on key infrastructure that will help relieve major supply bottlenecks (e.g., electricity, trade-enabling roads, dams, ports). The authorities may want to seek technical assistance to strengthen the appraisal, selection, and monitoring of investment projects and the budgeting of operation and maintenance costs. Over the medium term, governments could explore the option of public-private partnerships to complement public investment, while containing the risk to public finances.4

  • Pursuing reforms in the health and education sectors that would enhance labor productivity, generate employment, and alleviate poverty over time.

  • Improving the business climate by strengthening governance and streamlining administrative procedures. Priority should be given to removing regulatory hurdles that thwart the infrastructure sector and to addressing areas in which the CEMAC countries fared worst in the World Bank’s Doing Business survey.

The authorities have taken a number of steps to ensure that public investment is prioritized and refocused on growth-enabling infrastructure. At the regional level, the Regional Economic Program5 is expected to make important contributions in this regard. At the national level, a number of countries have taken specific measures to strengthen public investment management. Notably, in Gabon, a national agency for major public works was set up and entrusted with the planning, management, and implementation of large public infrastructure projects. The U.S. engineering corporation Bechtel is providing the agency with technical expertise. A service agreement was also signed with the World Bank to enhance national capacities in this area. Similarly, in Cameroon, the authorities plan to establish a central unit for project feasibility studies and evaluation.

Plans to improve the business environment have been in place in most CEMAC countries since 2007. The plans focus on streamlining administrative procedures and improving public-private dialogue. For instance, the Congolese authorities’ plan to improve the business climate includes improving public-private dialogue, streamlining the tax system, and ensuring investment security. In Equatorial Guinea, work is under way to establish a one-stop shop for investment. In Cameroon, time to start a business has been reduced from 12 to 3 days, procedures for paying taxes simplified, and delays in the provision of construction permits shortened.

Reforming the Financial Sector

Reforming the financial sector is a priority for the CEMAC region from both stability and development points of view. Though some progress has been achieved, more remains to be done to safeguard financial stability and deepen the sector.

Strengthening Financial Sector Stability and Supervision

Some progress has been made in strengthening the financial stability framework since the 2006 Financial Sector Assessment Program6 report. The authorities have (i) harmonized and increased the minimum capital requirements for banks (Coopération Financière en Afrique Centrale franc [CFAF] 10 billion or US$20 million), (ii) strengthened corporate governance, and (iii) established a Financial Stability Committee to analyze financial sector vulnerabilities and advise on appropriate policy responses. The regional banking supervisor (the Central African Banking Commission, or COBAC) also introduced in 2009 a deposit insurance scheme, with the oversight of the Bank of Central African States and banking sector representatives. The insurance deposit, funded by fees from financial institutions, will insure deposits up to CFAF 5 million per account.

However, the principal prudential regulations (on solvency, large exposures, connected lending) are out of line with international best practices and poorly enforced, thus encouraging excessive credit concentration and exposing the banking system to credit risk. To mitigate these risks, the prudential regulation could be amended in the following key areas: (i) solvency ratios and risk diversification; (ii) lending to shareholders, partners, executives, and directors; (iii) market risks; and (iv) consolidated supervision. Effective supervision is also hampered by an acute shortage of qualified staff at the COBAC. To safeguard the COBAC’s ability to foster financial stability, its staffing needs to be increased significantly and qualified commissioners appointed to the COBAC.

With regard to the banking resolution framework, the protracted failure to resolve the financial problems of a systemically important regional banking group points to two weaknesses: an inadequate legal framework for dealing with banking crises, and shortcomings in cooperation among regional finance ministries. The longer the current situation in financially weak banks persists, the higher could become the costs to governments, to the credibility of supervisory institutions, and to reputational risks for the CEMAC’s financial sector. It would be important, therefore, to closely monitor liquidity conditions to avoid any suspension of payments by these banks, require full loss absorption by previous shareholders, and pursue maximum recovery of loans owed by related parties to minimize the financial costs to governments. A new regulation on the resolution of banking crises, which is planned to go into effect in 2012, is expected to allow the authorities to intervene early to resolve banking crises, define clearly the scope of judicial review, and prohibit questionable shareholders from participating in a bank restructuring.

Financial Sector Deepening

Access to credit in the CEMAC region is among the lowest in sub-Saharan Africa. The penetration rate is low (about 3 percent of the total population), and credit to the private sector is well below the average for SSA (Figure 1.5). Structural factors that explain this situation include high operating costs because of low population density, lack of credit information, and a weak institutional and legal framework. Given the limited role of microfinance institutions, most small and medium enterprises find it difficult to obtain credit.

Figure 1.5Credit to the Nonfinancial Private Sector

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook database.

Note: CEMAC = Central African Economic and Monetary Community; SSA = sub-Saharan Africa; WAEMU = West African Economic and Monetary Union.

Improving the institutional framework, therefore, is critical for financial deepening (Akitoby, 2010; see Figure 1.6). Specific measures taken and actions in progress to deepen the financial sector include regular publication of lending costs and related fees to promote banking transparency and competition, as well as consumer protection; creation of a regional deposit insurance fund to protect small savers; creation of credit bureaus (with World Bank technical assistance); and establishment of a credit rating agency and a central registry of corporate balance sheets to reduce information asymmetry in credit activities. Going forward, institutional reforms should focus on improving the operations of land and commercial registries, streamlining the procedures for recording and enforcing guarantees, and strengthening creditor rights enforcement by improving the governance of the relevant courts. The recently established regional government securities market will also help manage excess liquidity and mobilize and better distribute savings.

Figure 1.6Investment Climate Indicators

Source: World Bank, 2010.

Note: Lines farther from the center represent a better relative outcome. CEMAC = Central African Economic and Monetary Community; SSA = sub-Saharan Africa; WAEMU = West African Economic and Monetary Union.

Microfinance could play a key role in broadening small and medium enterprise and private household access to financial services. Microfinance institutions have flourished since the introduction of the 2002 general regulation governing their activities. Transparency and consistent data reporting remain a challenge for microfinance institutions in the region, although progress has been made since the introduction in 2010 of a chart of accounts developed especially for them and the establishment of an information technology system to collect financial data automatically. Nevertheless, improvement of data reporting and supervision of microfinance institutions remain important challenges for the COBAC.

Promoting Trade and Regional Integration

The CEMAC trade patterns have shifted toward emerging markets. Notably, trade with Brazil, Russia, India, and China has grown significantly, displacing the European Union. Meanwhile, at less than 1½ percent of total trade, intraregional trade is the lowest among regional trade groups in SSA (Table 1.4 and Figure 1.7).

Figure 1.7Selected Regions: Intraregional Trade

Sources: IMF Direction of Trade Statistics and staff estimates.

Note: CEMAC = Central African Economic and Monetary Community; COMESA = Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa; EAC = East African Community; ECOWAS = Economic Community of West African States; SADC = Southern African Development Community; WAEMU = West African Economic and Monetary Union.

Trade barriers remain a significant obstacle. The common external tariff is higher than in most other African regions (Table 1.5), yet some member states still impose additional surcharges and other fees. Regarding nontariff barriers, cross-country differences persist in import classification and valuation, exemptions rules, and implementation of rules of origin. Moreover, border procedures are cumbersome, and lack of coordination among customs administrations sometimes gives rise to double taxation of goods going to the hinterland. In addition, the lack of capacity and resources at the CEMAC Commission hampers its ability to enforce trade reforms and community rules. Notably, the community integration tax—the commission’s main source of financing—is not transferred in full by the member countries.

Appendix Table 1.1CEMAC: Selected Economic and Financial Indicators, 2005–10
Indicator200520062007200820092010
(Annual percent change)
National income and prices
GDP at constant prices5.22.65.94.32.55.0
Oil GDP−1.0−0.9−2.7−0.9−6.0−1.4
Non-oil GDP7.98.112.26.26.86.2
Consumer prices (average)12.74.21.15.74.82.5
Consumer prices (end of period)11.92.43.07.13.02.9
Nominal effective exchange rate1−0.9−0.23.13.2−0.1−4.1
Real effective exchange rate10.21.10.95.13.1−4.2
(Annual changes in percent of beginning- of-period broad money)
Money and credit
Net foreign assets39.437.235.630.3213.3210.6
Net domestic assets−29.9−35.5−23.3−12.318.111.5
Broad money16.819.113.917.86.623.2
(Percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)
Gross national savings16.118.417.317.910.39.0
Gross domestic investment21.722.023.121.227.427.9
Of which public4.47.17.98.713.612.0
Government financial operations
Total revenue, excluding grants24.228.327.830.526.025.6
Government expenditure17.018.019.820.827.524.9
Primary basic fiscal balance212.314.49.711.71.13.2
Basic fiscal balance35.99.37.48.8−3.4−1.1
Overall fiscal balance, excluding grants9.111.98.09.7−1.70.5
Non-oil overall fiscal balance, excluding grants (percent of Non-oil GDP)−11.3−14.0−18.1−23.3−26.2−25.6
Overall fiscal balance, including grants9.822.18.810.220.61.3
External sector
Exports of goods and nonfactor services54.357.156.057.746.552.3
Imports of goods and nonfactor services34.335.535.035.242.445.7
Balance on goods and nonfactor services20.422.721.422.24.66.9
Current account, including grants2.96.35.57.4−6.0−7.2
External public debt40.226.525.116.217.112.7
Gross official reserves (end of period)
In millions of U.S. dollars5,143.98,888.611,93715,66214,35413,658
In months of imports of goods and services3.34.95.26.95.24.4
In percent of broad money77.4111.3120.3125.1113.491.9
Memorandum items:
Nominal GDP (billions of CFA francs)24,67627,50729,55935,32630,23135,985
CFA francs per U.S. dollar, average527.5522.9479.3447.8472.2495.3
Oil prices (in US$ per barrel)53.464.371.197.061.879.0
Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook database; and IMF staff estimates and projections.

Using as weights the shares of member countries in CEMAC’s GDP in purchasing power parity US$.

Excluding grants and foreign-financed investment and interest payments.

Excluding grants and foreign-financed investment.

Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook database; and IMF staff estimates and projections.

Using as weights the shares of member countries in CEMAC’s GDP in purchasing power parity US$.

Excluding grants and foreign-financed investment and interest payments.

Excluding grants and foreign-financed investment.

Concerted action is needed to lower barriers to internal and external trade. The priorities are to expedite the intended lowering of the common external tariff, enforce the rules of origin, coordinate customs administrations, and strengthen the capacity of the CEMAC Commission, especially through the timely transfer of community integration tax revenue.

References

The sustainable NOPD is based on IMF staff estimates and projections. For the analytics of the PIH model, see Chapter 5.

A similar conclusion can be drawn from other competitiveness indicators, such as the World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Index and the World Bank’s Country Policy and Institutional Assessment rating for business regulatory environment.

Lessons from an IMF cross-country pilot study can be drawn from Akitoby and others (2007).

At the summit in Bangui in 2010, the heads of state of CEMAC countries agreed on a joint program called the Regional Economic Program. The objective of this program is to ensure that by 2025 the CEMAC becomes an integrated and emerging economic space.

The Financial Sector Assessment Program, established by the IMF and the World Bank in 1999, is a comprehensive and in-depth analysis of a country’s financial sector. In developing and emerging market countries, Financial Sector Assessment Programs are conducted jointly by the IMF and the World Bank.

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