Chapter

IX. An Exercise in Financial Programming: The Program Scenario

Author(s):
John Karlik, Michael Bell, M. Martin, S. Rajcoomar, and Charles Sisson
Published Date:
May 1996
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An Exercise in Financial Programming: The Program Scenario

Prepare a hypothetical financial program for Sri Lanka for the year 1991. Assume that the program is being prepared in early January 1991 based on data through the end of 1990. Prepare the program following the procedures described in Chapter III.

Before embarking on the formulation of the program, “revisit” the projections of the individual sectoral accounts made in the preceding workshops (Chapters IV to VIII) to ensure the consistency—in both accounting and economic terms—of the baseline scenario that has been formulated.1 Although in principle this scenario assumes that policies will remain unchanged, circumstances may require analysts to make some subjective judgments. For this reason, baseline scenarios prepared by different analysts or working groups may result in markedly different projections.

For the program scenario, prepare a consistent set of projections based on the objectives for the program period, an assessment of exogenous factors, and a quantification of the policy measures that are needed to address the macroeconomic and structural problems. Supplement your projections for the program period with the following:

  • A description of the program objectives;

  • The rationale for and the expected effects of the policy measures proposed for the program period (1991);

  • A “skeleton” policy matrix prepared along the lines of the matrix presented in the Appendix to Chapter III (although more abbreviated) that identifies the key areas of structural reform.

  • A medium-term scenario that reflects the effects of both the program for 1991 and the structural policies outlined in the policy matrix.

In preparing the program, consider the following issues or questions:

  • a. What were the main macroeconomic and structural problems facing Sri Lanka at the end of 1990? Refer to the checklist of macroeconomic and structural problems and the possible responses prepared in each of the sectoral workshops.

  • b. What should be the policy objectives for 1991 and for the medium term? Among the targets to consider are those relating to income and output (growth), prices (inflation), and external accounts. In formulating these objectives, take into account structural goals such as reducing unemployment, shifting the distribution of income, and balancing urban and rural growth. You may also want to consider the trade-offs among these objectives, especially in the medium term.

  • c. After reviewing all the available policy instruments, choose an appropriate mix of policies for 1991. Assess the quantitative impact of these policies on pertinent macroeconomic aggregates.

  • d. Develop a set of consistent sectoral forecasts and a simple medium-term scenario based on the policy package you have identified. Your presentation should, at a minimum, include the following tables:

Summary

  • Table 9.1. Sri Lanka: Economic Indicators, 1986–91

Output and expenditure

  • Table 9.4. Sri Lanka: Gross Domestic Product by Expenditure, 1986–91 (At constant 1982 prices)

  • Table 9.5. Sri Lanka: Gross Domestic Product by Expenditure, 1986–91 (At current prices)

External sector

  • Table 9.6. Sri Lanka: Balance of Payments, 1986–91

Fiscal accounts

  • Table 9.12. Sri Lanka: Summary of Central Government Operations, 1986–91

Monetary accounts

  • Table 9.15. Sri Lanka: Monetary Survey, 1986–91

  • Table 9.16. Sri Lanka: Balance Sheet of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka, 1986–91

Flow of funds

Medium-term projections

  • Table 9.18. Sri Lanka: Balance of Payments Projections, 1990–95

  • Table 9.19. Sri Lanka: Projections of Central Government Operations, 1990–95

  • Table 9.20. Sri Lanka: Saving and Investment, 1986–95

You may use other selected tables to supplement your presentations. For ease of reference, Table 9.21, which contains background information and assumptions, is also reproduced in this chapter. However, you will need to refer to tables and other information used in earlier workshops.

Table 9.1.Sri Lanka: Economic Indicators, 1986–91
1991
19861987198819691990 Est.BaselineProgram
(Changes in percent unless otherwise indicated)
Real GDP4.31.52.72.36.2
GDP deflator16.08.09.910.920.0
Consumer prices (period average)28.07.714.011.621.5
Consumer prices (end of period)39.110.215.015.119.6
Nominal GDP (SL Rs bn.)179.5196.7222.0251.9321.1
Export volume4.3–4.50.810.913.2
Import volume1.7–13.4–0.1–0.56.6
Terms of trade–7.3–0.6–2.9–4.6–0.8
Exchange rates
Nominal effective 4–10.3–11.8–5.6–13.1–6.0
Real effective–7.4–10.5–1.3–6.76.1
Rupees per U.S. dollar (level)28.029.431.836.040.2
Budget revenue2.713.2–0.929.325.9
Budget expenditure and net lending7.27.919.87.421.5
Domestic credit58.316.928.85.114.6
Public sector9.723.537.45.54.2
Private sector7.912.021.74.724.3
Broad money (M2)5.614.516.611.320.1
Narrow money12.818.329.19.112.8
Quasi–money0.811.87.113.326.4
Velocity (average M2)3.683.633.543.533.88
(In percent of GDP unless otherwise indicated)
Budget
Overall deficit–10.1–8.7–12.7–8.6–7.8
Revenue and grants22.823.821.824.023.3
Expenditure (including net lending)33.032.534.532.631.1
Current expenditure18.920.120.622.622.4
Capital expenditure & net lending14.112.413.710.08.7
Domestic financing5.15.89.56.34.2
Of which: Bank1.71.94.5–1.30.1
Gross investment23.623.322.821.722.6
National saving17.018.117.117.319.6
Government saving6–4.7–2.3–3.9–1.7–1.4
External current account deficit–6.6–5.2–5.7–4.4–3.0
Debt service as percent of:
exports of goods and services726.128.729.824.818.2
External debt in percent of:
nominal GDP865.977.074.882.272.6
(In millions of SDRs)
Exports1,0301,0771,0981,2171,461
Imports1,6781,6021,6651,7371,979
External current account–361–269–294–239–178
Overall balance–66–58–64–67130
Gross official reserves, year end353244222229306
(months of current year imports)2.51.81.61.61.9
Net official reserves622–53–102–22
External debt3,3883,4713,7353,9404,074
Source: IMF Institute database.

Based on 1982 market prices.

Colombo index.

Colombo index; December over December.

Effective rates based on IMF Information Notice System; a negative change indicates depreciation.

End-December to end-December.

Revenue and grants minus current expenditure and capital transfers.

Including interest payments on short–term debt and IMF charges and repurchases.

Including IMF credit, and short–term debt.

Source: IMF Institute database.

Based on 1982 market prices.

Colombo index.

Colombo index; December over December.

Effective rates based on IMF Information Notice System; a negative change indicates depreciation.

End-December to end-December.

Revenue and grants minus current expenditure and capital transfers.

Including interest payments on short–term debt and IMF charges and repurchases.

Including IMF credit, and short–term debt.

Table 9.2.Sri Lanka: Gross Domestic Product by Industrial Origin at Constant Prices, 1986–91(In millions of Sri Lanka rupees at 1982 factor cost)
1991
198619871988198919901BaselineProgram
Agriculture229,10627,40927,98427,66630,100
Plantation crops37,5146,4826,1976,5756,983
Paddy6,6135,4236,3125,2586,467
Fishing2,1112,1912,2792,3702,252
Other12,86813,31313,19613,46314,398
Mining and quarrying2,6153,1123,3923,5763,901
Manufacturing17,55818,74819,62220,48822,427
Tree crop processing3,2253,3403,2733,2573,530
Other14,33315,40816,34917,23118,897
Construction8,1918,3388,4638,5148,684
Services56,79158,31559,58961,48564,144
Of which:
Public administration
and defense5,2745,4355,4626,1406,355
Wholesale and retail trade23,82124,49625,16425,58826,497
Gross domestic product114,261115,922119,050121,729129,256
Net factor income from abroad(2,696)(2,615)(2,836)(2,855)(2,509)
Gross national product111,565113,307116,214118,874126,747
(Percentage change)
Agriculture2.6–5.82.1–1.18.8
Plantation crops1.0–13.7–4.46.16.2
Mining and quarrying5.219.09.05.49.1
Manufacturing8.66.84.74.49.5
Construction1.51.81.50.62.0
Services4.32.72.23.24.3
Gross domestic product4.31.52.72.36.2
Source: IMF Institute database.

Provisional.

Including forestry and fishing.

Tea, rubber, and coconuts.

Source: IMF Institute database.

Provisional.

Including forestry and fishing.

Tea, rubber, and coconuts.

Table 9.3.Sri Lanka: National Income and Product Accounts by Industrial Origin at Current Prices, 1986–91(In millions of Sri Lanka rupees)
1991
198619871988198919901BaselineProgram
Agriculture244,35547,92353,60059,38876,504
Plantation crops38,07410,57913,11813,28615,274
Paddy9,9928,3939,42010,1954,852
Fishing3,3793,7024,0375,0875,800
Other22,91025,24927,02530,82050,578
Mining and quarrying4,1554,9275,5676,1577,098
Manufacturing24,86928,47031,29834,94143,128
Tree crop processing5,4816,3256,4516,8258,740
Other19,38822,14524,84728,11634,388
Construction12,27213,02014,94317,33221,541
Services78,06283,39198,108110,555142,224
Gross domestic product
(at factor cost)163,713177,731203,516228,373290,495
Indirect taxes less subsidies15,76118,99218,46623,51830,562
Gross domestic product
(at market prices)179,474196,723221,982251,891321,057
Net factor income from abroad(3,861)(4,336)(5,266)(5,739)(5,942)
Gross domestic product
(at market prices)175,613192,387216,716246,152315,115
Net transfers from abroad12,98314,50616,75618,66622,014
Gross national disposable income
(at market prices)188,596206,893233,472264,818337,129
Source: IMF Institute database.

Provisional.

Including forestry and fishing.

Tea, rubber, and coconuts.

Source: IMF Institute database.

Provisional.

Including forestry and fishing.

Tea, rubber, and coconuts.

Table 9.4.Sri Lanka: Gross Domestic Product by Expenditure, 1986–91(At constant 1982 market prices)
1991
198619871988198919901BaselineProgram
(In millions of Sri Lanka rupees)
Consumption108,230109,892112,283114,001116,419
Private295,68596,84896,98697,567100,037
Government12,54513,04415,29716,43416,382
Gross investment36,54836,36533,85631,60432,119
Private228,18127,39524,66522,70825,630
Government38,2498,8538,7888,6236,030
Change in stocks118117402273458
Domestic demand144,778146,257146,129145,605148,538
Exports of goods and nonfactor services31,72831,89234,17136,45740,357
Imports of goods and nonfactor services(56,722)(56,568)(55,436)(54,327)(53,240)
Expenditure on gross domestic product119,784121,581124,864127,735135,655
(Implicit deflators)
Consumption145.8156.1173.9193.9235.0
Private2145.7156.9178.8199.5242.4
Government147.3149.8142.8160.7190.0
Gross investment116.2126.2149.3173.1226.2
Private2116.2126.2149.3173.1226.2
Government3116.2126.2149.3173.1226.2
Change in stocks116.2126.2149.3173.1226.2
Domestic demand138.4148.6168.3189.4233.1
Exports of goods and nonfactor services134.2155.4169.4188.3241.2
Imports of goods and nonfactor services111.8124.1147.5170.4230.2
Expenditure on gross domestic product149.8161.8177.8197.2236.7
Source: IMF Institute database.

Provisional.

Includes autonomous public corporations and the Mahaweli Authority.

Central government capital expenditure less capital transfers to corporations, plus local government investment.

Source: IMF Institute database.

Provisional.

Includes autonomous public corporations and the Mahaweli Authority.

Central government capital expenditure less capital transfers to corporations, plus local government investment.

Table 9.5.Sri Lanka: Gross Domestic Product by Expenditure, 1986–91(At current market prices)
1991
198619871988198919901BaselineProgram
(In millions of Sri Lanka rupees)
Consumption157,850171,487195,306221,090273,640
Private2139,370151,949173,457194,680242,515
Government18,48019,53821,84926,41031,125
Gross investment42,46345,90050,56254,72272,638
Private fixed investment232,74234,57836,83639,31857,964
Government fixed investment39,58411,17413,12514,93113,638
Change in stocks1371486014731036
Domestic demand200,313217,387245,868275,812346,278
Exports of goods and nonfactor services42,56849,55957,88568,66697,334
Imports of goods and nonfactor services(63,407)(70,223)(81,771)(92,587)(122,555)
Expenditure on gross domestic product179,474196,723221,982251,891321,057
(In percent of GDP)
Consumption88.087.288.087.885.2
Private277.777.278.177.375.5
Government310.39.99.810.59.7
Gross investment23.623.322.821.722.6
Private fixed investment218.217.616.615.618.1
Government fixed investment35.35.75.95.94.2
Change in stocks0.10.10.30.20.3
Domestic demand111.6110.5110.8109.5107.9
Exports of goods and nonfactor services23.725.226.127.330.3
Imports of goods and nonfactor services–35.3–35.7–36.8–36.8–38.2
Expenditure on gross domestic product100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0
Source: IMF Institute database.

Provisional.

Includes autonomous public corporations and the Mahaweli Authority.

Central government capital expenditure less capital transfers to corporations, plus local government investment.

Source: IMF Institute database.

Provisional.

Includes autonomous public corporations and the Mahaweli Authority.

Central government capital expenditure less capital transfers to corporations, plus local government investment.

Table 9.6.Sri Lanka: Balance of Payments, 1986–91
1991
19861987198819891990BaselineProgram
(In millions of SDRs)
Trade balance(649)(525)(568)(520)(519)
Exports1,0301,0771,0981,2171,461
Of which: traditional435413410426472
nontraditional1524597634742916
Imports(1,678)(1,602)(1,666)(1,737)(1,979)
Of which: petroleum(191)(229)(164)(182)(264)
Services, net(107)(125)(117)(123)(65)
Receipts323307305314398
Of which: travel71554859102
Payments(430)(433)(423)(437)(463)
Of which: interest(141)(135)(147)(146)(143)
Private transfers, net242242238258274
Official transfers, net153139154146131
Current account(361)(269)(294)(239)(178)
Capital account291241193226294
Medium– and long–term, net302210181154244
Disbursements416343341316380
Government349265303301360
Private26778381520
Amortization138177192176151
Government8911112412694
Private 24966684957
Direct investment, net2445321415
Private short–term, net3(11)30127350
Errors and omissions4(30)37(55)14
Overall balance(66)(58)(64)(67)130
Monetary movements, net66586467(130)
Gross official reserves (Inc: –)13810922(7)(77)
Use of Fund credit(77)(69)721111
Central bank borrowing, net340(39)45(14)
Commercial banks, net2(2)918(50)
Memorandum items:
Gross official reserves at year end353244222229306
(In months of current year imports)2.51.81.61.61.9
SL Rupees/SDR (annual average)32.8691038.0741242.7457346.2037154.35536
(In percent of GDP)
Current account deficit–6.6–5.2–5.7–4.4–3.0
Current account deficit
(excluding official transfers)–9.4–7.9–8.6–7.1–5.2
Capital account5.34.73.74.15.0
Overall balance–1.2–1.1–1.2–1.22.2
Debt service ratio 426.128.729.824.818.2
Total debt465.977.074.882.272.6
Source: IMF Institute database.

Excludes petroleum exports.

Consists of public corporations and private companies.

Consists of trade credits, short-term borrowings of public corporations and private corporations, and liabilities to the FCBUs.

Total debt, including use of Fund credit, private sector debt, and short–term debt, as a percent of exports of goods and nonfactor services.

Source: IMF Institute database.

Excludes petroleum exports.

Consists of public corporations and private companies.

Consists of trade credits, short-term borrowings of public corporations and private corporations, and liabilities to the FCBUs.

Total debt, including use of Fund credit, private sector debt, and short–term debt, as a percent of exports of goods and nonfactor services.

Table 9.7.Sri Lanka: Exports by Commodity, 1986–91
1991
19861987198819891990BaselineProgram
(Value in millions of SDRs)
Total1,029.51,077.11,097.51,217.21,460.9
Agricultural products479.4457.6470.1478.3530.0
Tea
Value281.2279.6287.6295.8364.3
Volume (million kg)207.8201.1219.8204.2216.0
Unit value (SDR/kg)1.351.391.311.451.69
Rubber
Value79.776.986.767.456.6
Volume (million kg)110.0106.099.386.086.8
Unit value (SDR/kg)0.720.730.870.780.65
Coconuts
Value48.937.320.941.633.9
Volume (million nuts)1,105.0538.0224.1571.0507.7
Unit value (SDR/nut)0.040.070.090.070.07
Coconut products23.718.815.021.417.3
Other agricultural products
Value45.845.059.952.158.0
Volume (million kg)38.539.756.030.857.3
Unit price (SDR/kg)1.191.131.071.691.01
Industrial products432.3495.0525.7615.5743.9
Gems (value)54.868.686.5118.2121.6
Processed diamonds (value)31.830.638.170.567.7
Other
Value23.038.048.447.753.9
Volume (thousand carat)4,019.05,411.015,627.017,052.020,167.0
Unit value (SDR/carat)5.77.03.12.82.7
Garments and textiles
Value291.0338.5333.5381.8462.0
Volume (million pieces)166.6185.2185.6206.9247.1
Unit value (SDR/piece)1.751.831.801.851.87
Other industrial products (value)86.487.9105.7115.5160.3
Petroleum products71.768.053.048.673.0
Volume (million barrels)5.24.75.04.34.6
Unit value (SDR/barrel)13.714.510.511.315.7
Miscellaneous exports46.356.548.774.8114.0
(Shares in total exports; in percent)
Traditional exports142.138.337.435.032.3
Of which: tea27.326.026.224.324.9
Nontraditional exports250.955.457.861.062.7
Other agricultural products4.54.25.54.34.0
Garments and textiles28.331.430.431.431.6
Gems5.36.47.99.78.3
Other industrial products8.48.29.69.511.0
Other4.55.34.46.27.8
Petroleum products7.06.34.84.05.0
Exports/GDP (in percent)19.020.921.122.324.7
Export unit value (in SDR, 1985 = 100)76.283.484.484.389.4
Source: IMF Institute database.

Consists of tea, rubber, coconuts, and coconut products.

Excludes petroleum products.

Source: IMF Institute database.

Consists of tea, rubber, coconuts, and coconut products.

Excludes petroleum products.

Table 9.8.Sri Lanka: Imports by Commodity, 1986–91
1991
19861987198819891990BaselineProgram
(Value in millions of SDRs)
Total1,678.41,601.81,666.01,737.51,979.5
Consumer goods444.6418.6473.4561.4584.3
Rice
Value32.017.942.373.532.3
Volume (‘000 metric tons)230.8112.8210.4311.9172.0
Unit value (SDR/ton)138.7158.6201.0235.7187.8
Wheat
Value72.156.365.5107.569.7
Volume (‘000 metric tons)685.0578.6612.1726.0576.0
Unit value (SDR/ton)105.397.3107.0148.0121.0
Sugar
Value53.662.668.593.795.1
Volume (‘000 metric tons)321.9376.3319.0319.0305.3
Unit value (SDR/ton)166.5166.4214.6293.8311.5
Other food119.4115.1128.1117.3177.0
Other consumer goods167.5166.7169.0169.4210.2
Intermediate goods797.8852.3857.9873.11,008.4
Crude petroleum
Value160.9186.9157.3128.8227.8
Volume (million barrels)12.113.113.99.413.2
Unit value (SDR/barrel)13.314.211.313.717.3
Refined petroleum30.341.96.253.436.2
Fertilizer
Value39.028.257.938.054.4
Volume (‘000 metric tons)378.2301.8555.8355.0504.7
Unit value (SDR/ton)103.193.5104.2107.1107.8
Textiles193.1212.2205.7216.0201.7
Other intermediate goods374.4383.1430.7436.8488.3
Investment goods320.9297.4282.6260.2351.5
Of which:
Machinery and equipment177.1174.3164.3135.9159.1
Transport equipment44.337.232.939.765.7
Building materials27.618.624.321.519.2
Other71.967.360.663.1107.5
Unclassified115.133.551.642.935.3
(Shares in total imports; in percent)
Food16.515.718.322.618.9
Petroleum11.414.39.810.513.3
Textiles11.513.212.412.410.2
Other intermediate goods124.625.729.327.327.4
Investment goods19.118.617.015.017.8
Other16.812.513.212.212.4
Imports/GDP (in percent)30.430.832.131.533.6
Import unit value (in SDR, 1985 = 100)82.290.694.398.9105.7
Source: IMF Institute database.

Includes fertilizer.

Source: IMF Institute database.

Includes fertilizer.

Table 9.9.Sri Lanka: Services, 1986–91
1991
19861987198819891990BaselineProgram
Total services–107.1–125.4–117.3–123.0–64.8
Credits323.1307.3305.4314.4397.9
Debits430.2432.7422.7437.4462.7
Port, transportation, and insurance–3.12.35.0–7.68.1
Credit83.689.195.0101.6126.9
As percent of exports8.18.38.78.38.7
Debits86.786.890.0109.2118.8
As percent of imports5.25.45.46.36.0
Travel25.36.8–2.05.643.9
Credits71.355.148.059.3102.1
Debits46.048.350.053.758.2
Investment income–114.9–128.7–125.5–124.1–118.1
Receipts58.253.451.645.170.6
Profits and dividends0.40.21.00.40.3
Interest41.832.434.234.245.0
Central Bank accrued interest16.020.816.410.525.3
Payments173.1182.1177.1169.2188.7
Profits and dividends16.026.614.012.520.5
Interest141.1134.7146.7146.2142.9
Central Bank accrued interest16.020.816.410.525.3
Government services–3.70.91.11.6–1.5
Credits11.715.716.717.09.9
Debits15.414.815.615.411.4
Other services–10.7–6.74.11.52.8
Credits98.394.094.191.488.4
Debits109.0100.790.089.985.6
Memorandum items:
Exports of goods and
nonfactor services1,294.41,331.01,351.31,486.51,788.2
(in percent of GDP)(23.7)(25.8)(26.0)(27.3)(30.3)
Imports of goods and
nonfactor services1,935.41,852.41,911.02,005.72,253.5
(in percent of GDP)(35.4)(35.9)(36.8)(36.8)(38.2)
Source: IMF Institute database.
Source: IMF Institute database.
Table 9.10.Sri Lanka: External Debt Outstanding, 1986–91(In millions of SDRs)
1991
19861987198819891990BaselineProgram
Total medium– and long–term debt12,9873,0623,2733,3403,444
Concessional2,2462,3462,5892,7142,861
Commercial742716684626584
Government2,5462,6112,8442,9513,095
Concessional2,2462,3462,5892,7142,861
Multilateral685709797890984
Bilateral1,5601,6381,7911,8251,876
Commercial300265255237235
Public corporations2244225182153135
Private sector26596112108108
Other public corporations228765
Other private sector112123128123102
Short–term debt165243208324341
Central Bank74785439
Commercial banks3273526245
Trade credits131162174246296
IMF234165254275288
Source: IMF Institute database.

Excluding the use of Fund credit.

With government guarantee.

Excluding nonresident foreign currency deposits.

Source: IMF Institute database.

Excluding the use of Fund credit.

With government guarantee.

Excluding nonresident foreign currency deposits.

Table 9.11.Sri Lanka: External Debt Service Payments, 1986–91(In millions of SDRs)
1991
19861987198819891990BaselineProgram
Interest141.1134.7146.7146.2142.9
Government60.763.872.369.970.6
Concessional33.140.147.347.447.3
Multilateral5.26.58.07.08.1
Bilateral29.933.639.340.439.2
Nonconcessional25.623.725.022.523.3
Private37.729.827.824.421.3
Public corporation127.821.720.116.115.8
Private sector11.61.91.31.31.5
Other public corporations1.51.00.10.70.5
Other private sector6.85.26.46.33.5
Fund21.218.323.422.720.6
Short–term debt221.522.823.229.230.4
Amortization196.4246.8256.0221.7181.6
Government88.7111.4124.3126.393.4
Concessional56.354.164.559.660.1
Multilateral23.824.023.616.811.6
Bilateral32.530.140.942.848.5
Nonconcessional32.457.359.866.733.8
Private49.366.067.649.456.8
Public corporations140.234.538.230.625.9
Private sector12.62.73.42.21.9
Other public corporations0.222.00.80.91.0
Other private sector6.36.825.215.728.0
Fund repurchases58.469.464.146.031.4
Memorandum items:
Total debt service ratio326.128.729.824.818.2
Of which: interest payments10.910.110.99.88.0
Medium– and long–term official
debt service ratio423.324.325.721.214.7
Interest payments/total
outstanding debt4.23.93.93.73.5
Average interest rate on
concessional debt1.71.71.91.81.7
Average interest rate on
nonconcessional debt7.98.49.39.08.8
Source: IMF Institute database.

With government guarantee.

Includes interest payments on trade credits, borrowings from FCBUs, central bank and commercial bank liabilities and foreign currency deposits of nonresidents.

Including the Fund, private sector debt, and short–term debt.

Including the Fund.

Source: IMF Institute database.

With government guarantee.

Includes interest payments on trade credits, borrowings from FCBUs, central bank and commercial bank liabilities and foreign currency deposits of nonresidents.

Including the Fund, private sector debt, and short–term debt.

Including the Fund.

Table 9.12.Sri Lanka: Summary of Central Government Operations, 1986–91
19901991
1986198719881989BudgetActualBaselineProgram
(In millions of Sri Lanka rupees)
Total revenue and grants40,99146,82248,33860,38668,06274,661
Total revenue37,23842,14541,75053,97961,26267,964
Tax31,27235,11935,94747,51355,92061,206
Nontax5,9667,0265,8036,4665,3426,758
Grants3,7534,6776,5886,4076,8006,697
Total expenditure and net lending59,19563,89576,53282,16489,86199,814
Current expenditure33,96839,56146,13256,88463,56171,770
Capital expenditure23,23622,81622,87820,75021,66319,161
Net lending1,9911,5187,5224,5304,6378,882
Overall deficit(18,204)(17,073)(28,194)(21,778)(21,799)(25,153)
Financing18,20417,07328,19421,77821,79925,153
Net foreign borrowing9,0615,7167,1285,92610,55811,644
Net domestic borrowing9,14311,35721,06615,85211,24113,509
Banking system2,2873,8079,203(533)1,042257
Nonbank6,8567,55011,86316,38510,19913,252
(In percent of GDP)
Total revenue and grants22.823.821.823.921.223.3
Total revenue20.721.418.821.419.121.2
Tax17.417.916.218.917.419.1
Nontax3.33.62.62.61.72.1
Grants2.12.43.02.52.12.1
Total expenditure and net lending33.032.534.532.628.031.1
Current expenditure18.920.120.822.619.822.4
Capital expenditure12.911.610.38.26.76.0
Net lending1.10.83.41.81.42.8
Overall deficit–10.1–8.7–12.7–8.7–6.8–7.8
Net foreign borrowing5.02.93.22.43.33.6
Net domestic borrowing5.15.89.56.33.54.2
Banking system1.31.94.1–0.20.40.1
Nonbank3.83.85.36.53.14.1
Source: IMF Institute database.
Source: IMF Institute database.
Table 9.13.Sri Lanka: Summary of Central Government Revenue by Component, 1986–91
19901991
1986198719881989ActualBaselineProgram
(In millions of Sri Lanka rupees)
Tax revenue31,27235,11935,94747,51361,206
Income tax4,7874,9094,6475,1487,337
Personal1,5131,5801,4642,2072,957
Corporate3,2743,3293,1832,9414,380
Taxes on property6481,5681,7772,6973,140
Tax on Central Bank holdings of
Treasury bills––––––2,3452,618
Taxes on goods and services14,78715,66717,02220,82828,770
General sales and turnover tax10,08810,61112,32114,65820,291
Of which: turnover tax on imports4,4034,5105,3257,1589,767
Excises4,4144,7164,4215,8128,170
Of which: liquor1,4851,6441,7551,9552,657
tobacco2,9273,0712,6653,8555,461
License fees285340280358309
Taxes on international trade11,05012,97512,50116,49519,341
Imports9,41411,05110,67114,92316,792
Exports1,6361,9241,8301,5722,549
Tea9961,1528726281,601
Of which: ad valorem622622643551,311
Rubber307530842766747
Coconut23214867126151
Other10194495250
Other unclassified1––––––––––
Nontax revenue5,9667,0265,8036,4666,758
Property income4,7314,5414,0804,3874,433
Of which: Central Bank profits1,7791,7231,6502,000500
Fees and charges347334412627835
Other nontax revenue8882,1511,3111,4521,731
Total revenue37,23842,14441,75053,97967,964
(In percent of GDP)
Tax revenue17.417.916.218.919.1
Income tax2.72.52.12.02.3
Taxes on property0.40.80.81.10.8
Taxes on goods and services8.28.07.78.39.0
Taxes on international trade6.26.65.66.56.0
Imports5.25.64.85.95.2
Exports0.91.00.80.60.8
Of which: tea0.60.50.40.20.5
Nontax revenue3.33.62.62.62.1
Total revenue20.821.418.821.321.2
Source: IMF Institute database.

Collection of tax arrears.

Source: IMF Institute database.

Collection of tax arrears.

Table 9.14.Sri Lanka: Economic Classification of Expenditure, 1986–91
19901991
1986198719881989ActualBaselineProgram
(In millions of Sri Lanka rupees)
Current expenditure133,96839,56046,13256,88471,770
Expenditure on goods and services15,15618,46620,65425,50830,167
Salaries and wages8,0288,00610,01614,44615,748
Other goods and services7,12810,46010,63811,06214,419
Interest payments8,76210,15712,59014,35220,668
Foreign2,2092,5642,8963,3373,678
Domestic6,5537,5939,69411,01516,990
Subsidies and current transfers10,05010,93712,88817,02420,935
To public corporations2,3501,7221,5152,7174,449
To other levels of government6006099189021,237
To households7,1008,6069,62113,40515,249
Food subsidy and food stamps1,4931,5612,0693,6345,122
Pensions2,9643,2424,1284,7354,490
Other2,6233,6033,4245,0365,637
Less: provision for under–expenditure––––––––––
Capital expenditure123,23522,81622,87820,75019,161
Acquisition of capital assets7,78810,98312,00413,06911,663
Capital transfers15,44711,83310,8747,6817,498
To public corporations15,28211,55610,4646,8535,815
To other levels of government652003457991,574
Other101776529109
Less: provision for under–expenditure––––––––––
Net lending1,9911,5187,5224,5308,662
Of which: Advance accounts–170(1,180)2,732–9931,699
Net on–lending2,1612,6984,7905,5237,991
Total expenditure59,19563,89576,53282,16499,614
(In percent of GDP)
Current expenditure18.920.120.822.622.4
Subsidies and current transfers5.65.65.86.86.5
Of which: to public corporations1.30.91.11.11.4
Capital expenditure12.911.610.38.26.0
Net lending1.10.83.41.82.8
Total expenditure and net lending32.932.534.532.631.1
(In percent of total expenditure)
Current expenditure57.461.960.369.271.9
Subsidies and current transfers17.017.116.820.721.0
Of which: to public corporations4.02.73.13.34.5
Capital expenditure39.335.729.925.319.2
Net lending3.42.49.85.58.9
Total expenditure and net lending100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0
Memorandum item:
GDP (SL Rs bn.)179.5196.7222.0251.9321.1
Source: IMF Institute database.

Some revision has been made from data presented in earlier reports, because of the reclassification of taxes paid on behalf of Mahaweli contractors as capital expenditures (transfers). Previously these taxes had been classified as current expenditure (transfers).

Source: IMF Institute database.

Some revision has been made from data presented in earlier reports, because of the reclassification of taxes paid on behalf of Mahaweli contractors as capital expenditures (transfers). Previously these taxes had been classified as current expenditure (transfers).

Table 9.15.Sri Lanka: Monetary Survey, 1986–91
1991
19861987198819891990BaselineProgram
(In millions of Sri Lanka rupees)
Net foreign assets4,2212,749(44)(3,575)3,549
Monetary authorities2,18096(2,356)(5,351)(1,231)
Commercial banks2,0412,6532,3121,7774,780
Net domestic assets46,37055,17667,57778,74686,712
Domestic credit63,96774,80296,310101,220115,965
Public sector27,36233,79746,42148,96250,995
Government (net)22,62426,43135,63435,10135,358
Public corporations4,7397,36610,78713,86115,637
Private sector36,60541,00549,88952,25864,970
Of which: cooperatives1,4251,1231,3181,1781,535
Other items (net)(17,597)(19,626)(28,733)(22,474)(29,253)
Valuation Account1–737–679–245–303
Other(18,889)(28,054)(22,229)(28,950)
Broad money (M2)50,59157,92567,53375,17190,261
Narrow money (M1)21,05124,90132,15835,09339,596
Currency11,57013,49518,48719,65022,120
Demand deposits9,48111,40613,67115,44317,476
Quasi-money29,54033,02435,37540,07850,665
(Twelve-month percentage change)
Total domestic credit8.316.928.85.114.6
Public sector9.723.537.45.54.2
Government (net)10.316.834.8–1.50.7
Public corporations6.855.446.428.512.8
Private sector7.912.021.74.724.3
Broad money (M2)5.614.516.611.320.1
Narrow money (M1)12.818.329.19.112.8
Currency17.916.637.06.312.6
Demand deposits7.220.319.913.013.2
Quasi-money0.811.87.113.326.4
Memorandum: SL rupees/SDR
(end of year)34,8853843,6422444,4525152,5664057,24784
Source: IMF Institute database.

Imputed stocks from January 1, 1987.

Source: IMF Institute database.

Imputed stocks from January 1, 1987.

Table 9.16.Sri Lanka: Balance Sheet of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka, 1986–91(In millions of Sri Lanka rupees)
1991
19861987198819891990BaselineProgram
Net foreign assets2,18096(2,356)(5,351)(1,231)
Net domestic assets16,51520,53028,29732,83334,372
Domestic credit32,68335,72746,52252,18856,804
Net credit to central government29,87232,59143,04248,27650,516
Claims on DMBs2,8113,1363,4803,9126,288
Other items, net(16,168)(15,197)(18,225)(19,355)(22,432)
Reserve money18,69520,62625,94127,48233,141
Of which: currency outside DMBs11,57013,49518,48419,64422,120
Memorandum item:
Capital accounts 14,5141,8633,5505,1029,473
Source: IMF Institute database.

Capital accounts, which net are a liability, are included in “other items, net.”

Source: IMF Institute database.

Capital accounts, which net are a liability, are included in “other items, net.”

Table 9.17.Sri Lanka: Flow of Funds, 1990–91(In billions of Sri Lanka rupees)
Domestic SectorsExternal

Sector1
Horizontal

Check
PrivateGovernmentBanking
1.Nonfinancial transactions balance
1990
1991 Baseline
1991 Program
2.Government net lending
1990
1991 Baseline
1991 Program
3.Government domestic non-bank
financing
1990
1991 Baseline
1991 Program
4.External financing by government
1990
1991 Baseline
1991 Program
5.External financing by private sector
1990
1991 Baseline
1991 Program
6.Change in net foreign assets of banks
1990
1991 Baseline
1991 Program
7.Change in domestic bank credit
1990
1991 Baseline
1991 Program
8.Change in broad money
1990
1991 Baseline
1991 Program
9.Other items, net
1990
1991 Baseline
1991 Program
10.Vertical check
1990
1991 Baseline
1991 Program

Represents foreign countries; that is, the current account surplus (deficit) of the reporting country represents the deficit (surplus) of the external sector.

Represents foreign countries; that is, the current account surplus (deficit) of the reporting country represents the deficit (surplus) of the external sector.

Table 9.18.Sri Lanka: Balance of Payments Projections, 1990–95
199019911992199319941995
(In millions of SDRs)
Trade balance(518)
Exports1,461
Imports(1,979)
Total services, net(65)
Port, transportation, and insurance8
Receipts127
Payments119
Travel44
Receipts102
Payments58
Investment income–118
Receipts71
Profits and dividends0
Interest70
Payments169
Profits and dividends21
Interest168
Other services1
Receipts98
Payments97
Unrequited transfers405
Private transfers, net274
Official transfers, net131
Current account(178)
Capital account294
Medium – and long–term, net244
Disbursements380
Government360
Concessional290
Nonconcessional70
Private20
Amortization151
Government, excluding IMF94
Private57
Direct investment, net15
Private short–term, net50
Errors and omissions14
Overall balance130
Monetary movements, net(130)
Gross official reserves (Inc: –)(77)
Use of Fund credit11
Central bank borrowing, net(14)
Commercial banks, net(50)
Memorandum items:
Gross official reserves at year end306
(in months of current year imports)(1.9)
SL Rupees/SDR (annual average)54.35536
Current account deficit–3.0
Capital account5.0
Overall balance2.2
Debt service ratio (including IMF)19.6
Total debt (including IMF)69.0
Source: IMF Institute database.
Source: IMF Institute database.
Table 9.19.Sri Lanka: Projections of Central Government Operations, 1990–95
199019911992199319941995
(In millions of Sri Lanka rupees)
Total revenue and grants74,661
Total revenue67,964
Tax61,206
Nontax6,758
Grants6,697
Total expenditure and net lending99,814
Current expenditure71,770
Capital expenditure19,161
Of which: capital transfers7,498
Net lending8,882
Overall deficit(25,153)
Financing25,153
Net foreign borrowing11,644
Net domestic borrowing13,509
Of which: banking system257
(In percent of GDP)
Total revenue and grants23.3
Total revenue21.2
Tax19.1
Nontax2.1
Grants2.1
Total expenditure and net lending31.1
Current expenditure22.4
Capital expenditure6.0
Of which: capital transfers2.3
Net lending2.8
Overall deficit–7.8
Financing7.8
Net foreign borrowing3.6
Net domestic borrowing4.2
Of which: banking system0.1
Source: IMF Institute database.
Source: IMF Institute database.
Table 9.20.Sri Lanka: Saving and Investment Relationship, 1986–951(As percent of GDP)
YearPrivate

Saving
Private

Investment
Private

S – I
Central

Government

Saving
Central

Government

Investment
Central

Government

S – I
External

Currrent

Account
Total

Investment
198621.719.32.4–4.74.3–9.0–6.623.6
198720.417.72.7–2.35.6–7.9–5.223.3
198821.017.43.6–3.95.4–9.3–5.722.8
198919.016.52.5–1.75.2–6.9–4.421.7
199021.018.92.1–1.43.7–5.1–3.022.6
ProjectedRequired
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
Source: IMF Institute database.

Steps in the construction of a savings–investment relationship, as percent of GDP, 1991–95:

a. From balance of payments, external current account balance;

b. From government operations, government fixed investment;

c. From government operations, government savings = current revenue + grants – current expenditure;

d. Private savings–investment balance derived as residual;

e. Total investment requirement = target growth rate × ICOR;

f. Private gross investment requirement = total investment – government investment; and

g. Private saving derived as residual.

Test: Is private saving/GDP achievable?

1/(SI)p + (SI)G=CAB

Source: IMF Institute database.

Steps in the construction of a savings–investment relationship, as percent of GDP, 1991–95:

a. From balance of payments, external current account balance;

b. From government operations, government fixed investment;

c. From government operations, government savings = current revenue + grants – current expenditure;

d. Private savings–investment balance derived as residual;

e. Total investment requirement = target growth rate × ICOR;

f. Private gross investment requirement = total investment – government investment; and

g. Private saving derived as residual.

Test: Is private saving/GDP achievable?

1/(SI)p + (SI)G=CAB

Table 9.21.Sri Lanka: Monetary Survey, 1990–95
199019911992199319941995
(In millions of Sri Lanka rupees)
Net foreign assets3,549
Monetary authorities(1,231)
Commercial banks4,780
Net domestic assets86,712
Domestic credit115,965
Public sector50,995
Government (net)35,358
Public corporations15,637
Private sector64,970
Other items (net)(29,253)
Of which: valuation adjustment(303)
Broad money (M2)90,261
(Percentage change)
Total domestic credit14.6
Public sector4.2
Government (net)0.7
Public corporations12.8
Private sector24.3
Broad money (M2)20.1
Memorandum:
Average real broad money: Eq. 7.436,606
Real GDP135,655
Real interest rate–1.71
CPI242.2
Eq. 7.4, %dM2AVG Real2.6
AVGM2 =
= AVGM2[–1]*(1 +%dM2AVGR)*(1 +%dCPI)82,716
Average M2 velocity3.88
As percent of GDP:
A. Private investment18.9
B. External capital inflow, excluding
financing to government1.4
C. Flow of bank credit to public
enterprises and private sector4.5
D. A – (B + C)13.0
CPI according to Eq. 4.15226.1
%dCPI according to Eq. 4.15
SL rupees/SDR (end of year)57.24784
Source: IMF staff.
Source: IMF staff.
Table 9.22.Sri Lanka: Data for Trading Partners of Sri Lanka, Composites of Selected Indicators, 1986–951
1986198719881989199019911992199319941995
I.Output and demand in partner countries

(export weighted market growth)
(Annual percentage change)
Real GDP3.14.34.23.71.8–0.95.34.64.53.0
Real total domestic demand3.53.44.23.12.00.42.93.33.13.0
Volume of merchandise imports
Total3.64.18.67.13.0–1.49.07.76.75.7
Non-oil3.14.68.97.33.2–1.59.07.86.85.7
II.Costs and prices of partner suppliers

(import weighted, in U.S. dollar terms)
GDP deflators29.416.210.2–1.98.53.90.31.92.12.1
Consumer prices27.915.99.8–1.69.54.40.32.02.22.2
Export unit values
Total2.311.54.71.913.12.20.62.72.73.1
Non-oil9.110.28.31.53.31.81.02.62.62.6
III.Costs and prices of industrial trading partners

(export weighted, in U.S. dollar terms)
Export unit values7.76.75.70.75.2–0.10.22.22.32.6
Unit labor costs18.18.72.4–0.98.51.8–1.00.40.70.7
IV.World market prices for nonfuel commodities

(in U.S. dollar terms)
Weighted by Sri Lanka’s commodity composition of exports–2.4–3.49.42.412.7–5.6–2.92.13.63.4
Weighted by Sri Lanka’s commodity composition of imports–10.96.026.513.3–12.0–4.1–1.14.27.84.8
V.Commodity prices
Tea ($/KG)1.581.801.761.862.292.051.871.891.901.9588
Petroleum (spot crude; $/BBL)213.8017.8014.2017.2017.2017.8018.2019.5020.0020.70
VI.Debt (in millions of SDRs)3
Stock as of December32213227352736153733
Amortization due on existing debt1962472562221832194230190187185
Interest due on existing debt141135147146143145137138136135
VII.Exchange rate (SDR/U.S. dollar)
Period average0.85240.77340.74410.78020.73710.73100.71000.72000.73000.7400
VIII.Interest rate (U.S. dollar 6-month LIBOR)6.87.38.19.38.48.08.08.08.08.0
Sources: IMF Institute database.

Actual data 1986–90: WEO projection 1991–95.

Petroleum price is average of spot export prices for U.K. Brent (light crude), Dubai (medium crude), and Alaska North Slope (heavy crude), equally weighted.

Including IMF.

Of which, IMF repurchases: SDR 64 million.

Sources: IMF Institute database.

Actual data 1986–90: WEO projection 1991–95.

Petroleum price is average of spot export prices for U.K. Brent (light crude), Dubai (medium crude), and Alaska North Slope (heavy crude), equally weighted.

Including IMF.

Of which, IMF repurchases: SDR 64 million.

Table 9.23.Sri Lanka: Selected Data Series, 1977–90 National Income Accounts (1)(In millions of Sri Lanka rupees)
YearCCPCGIFIFIPFIG
197729,81626,6983,1185,2595,035
197836,14832,1054,0438,5548,521
197945,16940,3714,79813,52713,246
198059,08453,3995,68522,46520,845
198175,06168,7516,31023,61023,279
198287,46879,2268,24230,52730,279
1983104,83494,9459,88935,13235,342
1984123,170111,23511,93539,70839,558
1985143,102126,50316,59938,68238,457
1986157,850139,37018,48042,46342,32632,7429,584
1987171,487151,94919,53845,90045,75234,57811,174
1988195,306173,45721,84950,56249,96136,83613,125
1989221,090194,68026,41054,72254,24939,31814,931
1990273,6402425153112572,63871,60257,96413,638
C = Total consumptionCP = Private consumptionCG = General government consumptionI = Gross investmentFI = Gross fixed investmentFIP = Private fixed investmentFIG = General government fixed investment
C = Total consumptionCP = Private consumptionCG = General government consumptionI = Gross investmentFI = Gross fixed investmentFIP = Private fixed investmentFIG = General government fixed investment
Table 9.23.Sri Lanka: Selected Data Series, 1977–90 National Income Accounts (2)(In millions of Sri Lanka rupees)
YearINVTDDNXNMGDPFYGNPGNI
197722435,07512,31110,97936,407(252)36,15536,773
19783344,70214,83516,87242,665(237)42,42843,677
197928158,69617,66023,96952,387(240)52,14755,121
19801,62081,54921,43436,45666,527(432)66,09570,636
198133198,67125,89239,55885,005(1,868)83,13790,123
1982248117,99527,14845,90599,238(1,959)97,279106,165
1983(210)139,96632,01650,381121,601(3,214)118,387128,850
1984150162,87844,28553,417153,746(3,401)150,345162,548
1985225181,78442,23761,646162,375(3,400)158,975170,940
1986137200,31342,56863,407179,474(3,861)175,613188,596
1987148217,38749,55970,223196,723(4,336)192,387206,893
1988601245,86857,88581,771221,982(5,266)216,716233,472
1989473275,81268,66692,587251,891(5,739)246,152264,818
19901,036346,27897,884122,555321,057(5,942)315,115337,129
INV = Change in stocksTDD = Total domestic demandNX = Exports of goods and nonfactor services (NIA definition)NM = Imports of goods and nonfactor services (NIA definition)GDP = Gross domestic productFY = Net factor payments, in millions of Sri Lanka rupeesGNP = Gross national product, at current market priceGNI = Gross national disposable income, i.e., GNP plus unrequited external transfers
INV = Change in stocksTDD = Total domestic demandNX = Exports of goods and nonfactor services (NIA definition)NM = Imports of goods and nonfactor services (NIA definition)GDP = Gross domestic productFY = Net factor payments, in millions of Sri Lanka rupeesGNP = Gross national product, at current market priceGNI = Gross national disposable income, i.e., GNP plus unrequited external transfers
Table 9.23.Sri Lanka: Selected Data Series, 1977–90 National Income Accounts (3)(In millions of Sri Lanka rupees)
YearCPRGDPRGNIRCPIGDPDWMWPI
(In millions of Sri Lanka rupees)(1982=100)
197754,67675,13375,88848.848.537.948
197858,63179,79381,63954.853.555.255.3
197966,58184,64289,04960.661.967.960.6
198069,81489,24694,81476.574.584.881.1
198176,19494,422100,13790.290.084.994.8
198279,22699,238106,165100.0100.0100.0100.0
198383,311104,072110,317114.0116.8109.6125.0
198483,682109,378115,610132.9140.6138.1157.0
198593,779114,846120,904134.9141.4150.9133.2
198695,685119,784125,872145.7149.8159.0129.2
198796,848121,581127,866156.9161.8167.0146.5
198896,986124,864131,327178.8177.8208.8172.6
198997,567127,735134,290199.5197.2240.6188.1
1990100,037135,655142,446242.4236.7285.4230.0
CPR = Real private consumptionGDPR = Real gross domestic productGNIR = Real gross national disposable income (GNI*100/GDPD)CPI = Consumer price indexGDPD = GDP deflatorWM = Index of monthly earningsWPI = Wholesale price index
CPR = Real private consumptionGDPR = Real gross domestic productGNIR = Real gross national disposable income (GNI*100/GDPD)CPI = Consumer price indexGDPD = GDP deflatorWM = Index of monthly earningsWPI = Wholesale price index
Table 9.23.Sri Lanka: Selected Data Series, 1977–90 Balance of Payments (1)
YearENSAENSEENSDAREERXSLRXSLR/GDPXSDR
197710.3592118.900890.856526,57018.0634
197819.5445620.199760.7987213,19330.9675
197920.1188120.346160.7739986.9515,28229.2760
198021.5200422.957380.76833100.0017,59526.4818
198122.6938223.919380.84806106.3421,04324.8927
198222.9769323.518310.90579112.8521,45421.6934
198325.1520626.173750.93545112.2625,09620.6998
198426.0743825.759920.97560124.9037,34724.31,432
198527.5792630.105500.98489116.7735,74322.01,296
198632.8691034.885380.85239103.9034,07219.01,030
198738.0741243.642240.7733592.9741,13320.91,077
198842.7457344.452510.7440990.9646,92821.11,098
198946.2037152.566400.7801886.2956,17522.31,217
199054.3553657.247840.7370687.8879,41324.71,461
ENSA = Exchange rate, Sri Lanka rupees per SDR, annual averageENSE = Exchange rate, Sri Lanka rupees per SDR, end of yearENSDA = Exchange rate, SDR per US dollar, annual averageREER = Index of real effective exchange rate, 1980 = 100XSLR = Exports, f.o.b., in millions of Sri Lanka rupeesXSLR/GDP = Exports as a percentage of GDPXSDR = Exports, f.o.b., in millions of SDR
ENSA = Exchange rate, Sri Lanka rupees per SDR, annual averageENSE = Exchange rate, Sri Lanka rupees per SDR, end of yearENSDA = Exchange rate, SDR per US dollar, annual averageREER = Index of real effective exchange rate, 1980 = 100XSLR = Exports, f.o.b., in millions of Sri Lanka rupeesXSLR/GDP = Exports as a percentage of GDPXSDR = Exports, f.o.b., in millions of SDR
Table 9.23.Sri Lanka: Selected Data Series, 1977–90 Balance of Payments (2)
YearXVOLXUVPCHXUVMSLRMSLR/GDPMSDRMVOL
197763.577.1144.86,06116.658538.1
197863.881.6105.915,10035.477345.4
197963.392.5113.422,60343.11,12352.2
198062.4101.0109.233,94251.01,57759.1
198174.496.195.136,58343.01,61260.2
198283.486.389.841,94642.31,82672.8
198377.899.0114.745,55837.51,81184.4
198488.5124.9126.147,54130.91,82391.2
1985100.0100.080.154,04933.32,007100.0
1986104.376.276.254,55930.41,678101.7
198799.683.4109.560,52830.81,60288.1
1988100.484.4101.171,20032.11,66688.0
1989111.384.3100.079,22531.51,73787.5
1990126.089.4106.1107,72933.61,97993.3
XVOL = Index of export volume, 1985 = 100XUV = Index of export unit value in SDR, 1985 = 100PCHXUV = Percentage change in export unit value in index form, i.e., percentage change in SDR value deflated by percentage change in volume indexMSLR = Imports, cif, in millions of Sri Lanka rupeesMSLR/GDP = Imports as a percentage of GDPMSDR = Imports, cif, in millions of SDRMVOL = Index of import volume, 1985 = 100
XVOL = Index of export volume, 1985 = 100XUV = Index of export unit value in SDR, 1985 = 100PCHXUV = Percentage change in export unit value in index form, i.e., percentage change in SDR value deflated by percentage change in volume indexMSLR = Imports, cif, in millions of Sri Lanka rupeesMSLR/GDP = Imports as a percentage of GDPMSDR = Imports, cif, in millions of SDRMVOL = Index of import volume, 1985 = 100
Table 9.23.Sri Lanka: Selected Data Series, 1977–90 Balance of Payments (3)
YearMUVPCHMUVXUV/MUVCA/GDPOB/GDPRES/MDSDT/GDP
197776.482.91.753.44.927.8
197884.8110.90.95–2.50.04.850.5
1979107.2126.50.90–6.80.24.246.4
1980133.0124.00.88–16.3–7.81.546.1
1981133.5100.40.95–10.1–0.92.151.7
1982124.993.50.96–11.5–1.02.154.5
1983106.985.61.34–9.0–0.11.956.1
198499.693.21.350.05.33.451.0
1985100.0100.40.80–7.0–1.62.559.5
198682.282.20.93–6.6–1.22.526.162.0
198790.6110.20.99–5.2–1.11.828.767.2
198894.3104.10.97–5.7–1.21.629.871.9
198998.9104.80.95–4.4–1.21.624.872.3
1990105.7106.90.99–3.02.21.918.269.0
MUV = Index of import unit value in SDR, 1985 = 100PCHMUV = Percentage change in import unit value in index form, i.e., percentage change in SDR value deflated by percentage change in volume indexXUV/MUV = Percentage change in terms of trade, i.e., ratio of derived export unit value over import unit valueCA/GDP = Ratio of current account to GDP, in percentOB/GDP = Ratio of overall balance to GDP, in percentRES/M = Gross external reserves in months of importsDS = Ratio of debt service (interest and amortization) to exports of goods and nonfactor services, in percentDT/GDP = Ratio of external debt, at year end, to GDP, in percent
MUV = Index of import unit value in SDR, 1985 = 100PCHMUV = Percentage change in import unit value in index form, i.e., percentage change in SDR value deflated by percentage change in volume indexXUV/MUV = Percentage change in terms of trade, i.e., ratio of derived export unit value over import unit valueCA/GDP = Ratio of current account to GDP, in percentOB/GDP = Ratio of overall balance to GDP, in percentRES/M = Gross external reserves in months of importsDS = Ratio of debt service (interest and amortization) to exports of goods and nonfactor services, in percentDT/GDP = Ratio of external debt, at year end, to GDP, in percent
Table 9.23.Sri Lanka: Selected Data Series, 1977–90 Central Government Finance Statistics (1)(In millions of Sri Lanka rupees)
YearGRGRTGRTIGRTGSGRTGSVGRTGSEGRTGSM
19776,2775,6149372,1727111,407518
197811,24510,5841,1023,1381,1501,8841,469
197912,15811,3551,3573,2081,2151,9072,271
198013,44412,7302,0863,6011,6401,8782,925
198114,77513,6962,0294,8662,8291,9422,725
198216,20914,7372,9236,3204,0522,1232,538
198323,31819,9133,3668,7116,2242,2994,047
198434,06229,9395,48010,8888,1432,5516,670
198536,24830,4405,58613,35710,1892,9828,093
198637,23831,2724,78714,78710,0884,4149,414
198742,14435,1194,90915,66710,7114,71611,051
198841,74935,9464,64717,02112,3214,42010,671
198953,97947,5135,14823,17314,6585,81214,923
199067,96461,2067,33731,38820,2918,17016,792
GR = Total revenueGRT = Total tax revenueGRTI = Total revenue from income taxes, individual and corporateGRTGS = Total revenue from taxes on goods and servicesGRTGSV = Revenue from VAT, turnover and general taxesGRTGSE = Revenue from excise taxesGRTGSM= Revenue from import duties
GR = Total revenueGRT = Total tax revenueGRTI = Total revenue from income taxes, individual and corporateGRTGS = Total revenue from taxes on goods and servicesGRTGSV = Revenue from VAT, turnover and general taxesGRTGSE = Revenue from excise taxesGRTGSM= Revenue from import duties
Table 9.23.Sri Lanka: Selected Data Series, 1977–90 Central Government Finance Statistics (2)(In millions of Sri Lanka rupees)
YearGRTGSTXTSLRTGST/XTGRNTGGGEGEC
19772673,5037.66405008,3646,366
19782,7816,40143.465766116,62611,930
19792,4955,72243.67981,39019,42612,276
19801,9206,17031.17072,62027,51516,456
19811,9656,44430.51,0652,72125,90114,649
19821,5946,34225.11,4523,37633,76818,341
19832,2228,29526.83,3963,47337,86522,002
19845,00415,76431.74,1103,29344,54624,631
19852,21412,00318.45,7933,30754,17432,644
19869969,25310.85,9433,75357,20233,967
19871,15210,65410.87,0124,67762,37639,560
198887212,2997.15,7416,58869,01046,132
198962813,6644.66,4396,40777,63456,884
19901,60119,8238.16,4296,69790,93271,771
GRTGST = Revenue from export tax on teaXTSLR = Exports of teaTGST/XT = Effective rate of export tax on tea, in percentGRNT = Total nontax revenueGG = GrantsGE = Total expenditureGEC = Total current expenditure
GRTGST = Revenue from export tax on teaXTSLR = Exports of teaTGST/XT = Effective rate of export tax on tea, in percentGRNT = Total nontax revenueGG = GrantsGE = Total expenditureGEC = Total current expenditure
Table 9.23.Sri Lanka: Selected Data Series, 1977–90 Central Government Finance Statistics (3)(In millions of Sri Lanka rupees)
YearGECGSGECGSWGECSTGEKGEKTGNL
19772,6181,8352,7301,99893784
19785,2511,9105,3114,6962,588570
19795,3882,3755,1937,1504,208422
19808,5933,5565,58611,0596,254706
19815,2243,5795,68711,2527,2262,113
19826,5014,5616,73615,42710,598(256)
19837,8484,8117,54815,86310,4881,772
19849,1965,5548,69719,91514,0663,291
198516,2876,8788,93021,53014,1551,059
198615,1558,02810,05023,23515,4471,991
198718,4668,00610,93722,81611,8461,518
198820,65410,01612,88822,87810,8727,522
198925,50814,44617,02420,7507,6814,530
199030,16815,74920,93519,1617,4978,882
GECGS = Expenditure on goods and servicesGECGW = Expenditure on wages and salariesGECST = Expenditure for subsidies and current transfersGEK = Total capital expendituresGEKT = Capital transfersGNL = Net lending
GECGS = Expenditure on goods and servicesGECGW = Expenditure on wages and salariesGECST = Expenditure for subsidies and current transfersGEK = Total capital expendituresGEKT = Capital transfersGNL = Net lending
Table 9.23.Sri Lanka: Selected Data Series, 1977–90 Monetary Statistics (1)(In millions of Sri Lanka rupees)
YearM2M1QMRMCODMBkM2AVGAVGVELFIDR
19778,8995,4083,4924,0282,7922.217,6414.76
197811,6475,9485,6984,5353,0162.5710,2734.158.50
197916,5827,6738,9085,5383,7742.9914,1143.718.50
198021,2759,30511,9706,6294,1813.2118,9283.5114.50
198125,4289,84115,5877,8224,8233.2523,3513.6417.88
198231,83011,48820,3429,6795,9883.2928,6293.4717.50
198338,45414,33124,12312,2407,2003.1435,1423.4618.25
198444,58516,32028,26514,2968,5613.1241,5203.7019.79
198547,06718,66128,40618,0849,8162.6045,8263.5417.33
198650,59121,05129,54018,69511,5702.7148,8293.6812.21
198757,92524,90133,02420,62613,4952.8154,2583.6311.50
198867,53332,15835,37525,94118,4842.6062,7293.5413.23
198975,17135,09340,07827,48219,6442.7471,3523.5316.43
199090,26139,59650,66533,14122,1202.7282,7163.8819.42
M2 = Broad money, end of year, in millions of Sri Lanka rupeesM1 = Narrow money, end of year, in millions of Sri Lanka rupeesQM = Quasi-money, end of year, in millions of Sri Lanka rupeesRM = Reserve money, end of year, in millions of Sri Lanka rupeesCODMB = Currency outside of deposit money banks, end of year, in millions of Sri Lankan rupeesk = Money multiplier (M2/RM)M2AVG = Average of year-end M2sAVGVEL = GDP/M2AVGFIDR = Average maximum interest rate paid by commercial banks on 12-month deposits, in percent
M2 = Broad money, end of year, in millions of Sri Lanka rupeesM1 = Narrow money, end of year, in millions of Sri Lanka rupeesQM = Quasi-money, end of year, in millions of Sri Lanka rupeesRM = Reserve money, end of year, in millions of Sri Lanka rupeesCODMB = Currency outside of deposit money banks, end of year, in millions of Sri Lankan rupeesk = Money multiplier (M2/RM)M2AVG = Average of year-end M2sAVGVEL = GDP/M2AVGFIDR = Average maximum interest rate paid by commercial banks on 12-month deposits, in percent

In particular, review and refine the projections of output, expenditure and prices made in Chapter IV in light of the sectoral projections made in subsequent chapters. Revisions to key variables such as real GDP, the GDP deflator, or the CPI are likely to require revisions in the balance of payments, government budget, and monetary projections.

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