Chapter

Appendix III: The Compilation of Estimates for DOTS

Author(s):
International Monetary Fund
Published Date:
March 1993
Share
  • ShareShare
Show Summary Details

This appendix describes the procedure underlying the compilation of DOTS estimates.

1. Overview

The data base for direction of trade statistics includes, in addition to all available reported data, monthly, quarterly, and annual estimates of trade for individual countries whose reported data are less current, incomplete, or not available. All estimates are currently available for periods starting January 1981 through the “reference month”1 and are marked with a breaksign (for a list of breaksigns, see Table 2 in this appendix and Appendix II). Estimates are updated through the “current month” on a monthly basis, and the estimates are revised on a weekly basis.

Table 1.Flowchart for the Standard Order of Priority for Estimation Types
Table 2.Estimation Types
Estimation typeAvailability requirements for DOTS reported dataAvailability requirement for IFS reported dataEstimation MethodBreaksign
1Quarterly DOTS data covering the reference monthMonthly IFS data for the three corresponding monthsDistribution of quarterly DOTS data1 using:
1.1 monthly pattern displayed by monthly reported partner data, where data for 3 months are availableA
1.2 monthly pattern of IFS monthly data, for remaining partner countriesB
2same as 1same as 1Distribution of quarterly DOTS data1 using monthly pattern of IFS monthly data for all partner dataB
3same as 1no requirementDistribution of quarterly DOTS data1 using:
3.1 monthly pattern displayed by monthly reported partner data, where data for 3 months are availableA
3.2 Even distribution for the remaining partner countriesD
4same as 1no requirementDistribution of quarterly DOTS data1 using monthly pattern determined by the userF
5Annual DOTS data covering the reference monthMonthly IFS data for the twelve corresponding monthsDistribution of annual DOTS data2 using:
5.1 monthly pattern displayed by monthly reported partner data, where data for 12 months are availableA
5.2 monthly pattern of IFS monthly data, for remaining partner countriesB
6same as 5same as 5Distribution of annual DOTS data2 using monthly pattern of IFS monthly data for all partner dataB
7same as 5no requirementDistribution of annual DOTS data2 using:
7.1 monthly pattern displayed by monthly reported partner data, where data for 12 months are availableA
7.2 Even distribution for the remaining partner countriesD
8same as 5no requirementDistribution of annual DOTS data2 using monthly pattern determined by the userF
9No requirementMonthly IFS dataDistribution of total exports or imports from IFS applying partner country pattern calculated from the most recent annual reported DOTS dataI
10No requirementMonthly IFS dataDistribution of IFS total applying the most recent annual partner country pattern defined by the userJ
11No requirementNo requirementDistribution of a monthly total defined by the user applying partner country pattern same as 9M
12No requirementNo requirementDistribution of a monthly total determined by the user applying partner country pattern same as 10N
13No requirementNo requirementThis estimation type uses adjusted monthly partner country data, or, for partner countries with no such data, extrapolated data:3
13.1.1 derived reported dataP
13.1.2 derived estimates (estimation types 1-8)Q
13.1.3 derived estimate types 9-12 & 14R
13.2 Extrapolated data from the most recent monthly:X
a. reported data
b. estimated data (estimation types 1-12 &14)
c. derived reported data
d. derived estimated data
14No requirementNo requirementData determined by the user for all partner countriesE

When the quarterly DOTS data have incomplete monthly reported data, the amount to be distributed in the unreported months is equal to the quarterly data minus the monthly reported data.

When annual DOTS data are summed from incomplete monthly or quarterly reported data, the amount to be distributed in the unreported months is equal to the annual data minus the quarterly and monthly reported data.

In order to calculate consistent estimates for all countries, estimates for countries using estimation type 13 in automatic mode have to be calculated after all countries using estimation types 1 to 12 and 14 have been calculated.

When the quarterly DOTS data have incomplete monthly reported data, the amount to be distributed in the unreported months is equal to the quarterly data minus the monthly reported data.

When annual DOTS data are summed from incomplete monthly or quarterly reported data, the amount to be distributed in the unreported months is equal to the annual data minus the quarterly and monthly reported data.

In order to calculate consistent estimates for all countries, estimates for countries using estimation type 13 in automatic mode have to be calculated after all countries using estimation types 1 to 12 and 14 have been calculated.

2. Estimation functions

The basis of all estimates is the reported data stored in the Fund’s data base, including data on total exports and total imports. The Fund’s data management system generates estimates, for any country, of trade with each of its partner countries, for any month for which DOTS reports have not been reported by the country. When a country subsequently reports its own data, then the estimates for the reporting country’s trade with all its partners are removed.

The estimation functions are based on a set of estimation types associated with a set of priorities. Although there are 14 estimation types (noted 1 to 14) that may be used for individual countries, estimates for most countries are based on a set of 6 estimation types, combined with a standard order of priority giving preference to estimates compiled on the following basis (in decreasing order of priority):

1. reported lower frequency (quarterly and annual) DOTS data,

2. monthly total export and import data reported for International Financial Statistics (IFS), and

3. combination of reported and estimated partner country data, and extrapolated data.

A flowchart illustrating the rationale for the standard order of priority is shown in Table 1 of this appendix. A description of each estimation type is provided in Table 2.

3. Consolidation

Reported monthly data and estimates are consolidated into quarterly and annual figures. Reported quarterly and annual data, however, are never overridden by consolidated figures that include estimates.2 Consolidated quarterly and annual data including at least one estimated month are marked with a breaksign. Breaksigns for consolidated quarterly and annual data are presented in Appendix II.

The “reference month” is in principle the most current period published in the DOTS quarterly issues and normally has a delay of four months from the latest month. For example, in March 1990, the “reference month” is November 1989, and therefore DOTS estimates are available from January 1981 through November 1989.

Reported quarterly and annual data can only be overridden by (revised) reported data.

    Other Resources Citing This Publication