© 2004 International Monetary Fund

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Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Managing oil wealth: the case of Azerbaijan / prepared by John Wakeman-Linn … [et al.].

—[Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund, 2004]

p. cm.

ISBN 9781589063082

Includes bibliographical references.

1. Petroleum industry and trade—Azerbaijan. 2. Natural resources—Azerbaijan—Management. 3. Natural resources. I. Wakeman-Linn, John.

HD9576.A982 M26 2004

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this work are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. The IMF has not edited this publication. Some documents cited in this work may not be available publicly.

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Contents

• Acknowledgments

• Chapter 1. Introduction

• Chapter 2. Economic Theory and Natural Resource Booms

• Chapter 3. Country Experiences with Managing Natural Resource Windfalls

• Chapter 4. The Oil Sector in Azerbaijan

  • Current Institutional Arrangements for Managing Oil Revenues

  • Prospects for Government Oil and Gas Revenues

• Chapter 5. Strategy for Managing Oil Wealth

  • Long-Term Consumption and the Sustainable Non-Oil Balance

  • Fiscal Rules for the Medium Term

  • Policy Options in the Medium Term

• Chapter 6. Conclusion

  • Institutional Arrangements and Capacity

  • Level of Expenditures

  • Composition of Expenditures

• Appendix 1. Oil and Economic Development in Indonesia

• Appendix 2. Oil and Economic Development in Nigeria

• Appendix 3. Oil and Economic Development in Mexico

• Appendix 4. Calculation of the Sustainable Non-Oil Deficit

• References

• Boxes

  • State Oil Fund of the Azerbaijan Republic

  • Monetary Policy Response to Natural Resource Booms

  • Establishing a Notional Investment Maintenance Fund

• Figures

  • Sources of Oil and Gas Revenue in Azerbaijan

  • Azerbaijan Oil and Gas Revenues, 2000-25

  • Azerbaijan Oil and Gas Revenues Under Conservative Price Assumptions, 2000-25

  • Azerbaijan: Sustainable Non-Oil Deficit Ceiling—Constant Expenditures, 2000-24

  • Azerbaijan: Sustainable Non-Oil Deficit—Constant Wealth, 2000-24

  • Azerbaijan: Medium-Term Sustainable Non-Oil Deficit Ceiling (Includes a Nonborrowing Constraint and a Limit on the Non-Oil Deficit Volatility), 2003-24

  • Azerbaijan: Sensitivity Analysis of the Medium-Term Sustainable Non-Oil Deficit Ceiling, 2003-24

• Tables

  • Azerbaijan: Sensitivity of the Sustainable Non-Oil Deficit to Long-Term Real Interest Rates

  • Azerbaijan: Constant Real Non-Oil Deficit Paths Under Various Oil Prices and Fluctuation Bands

Acknowledgments

This paper has benefited from comments by Julian Berengaut, Oleh Havrylyshyn, Juha Kähkönen, Rolando Ossowski, Mark Flanagan, Michael Mered, Basil Zavoico, Christian Petersen, and Peter Thomson. The authors would like to thank Malina Savova for research assistance; Grace Moss for assistance in putting the manuscript together; and Maria Cecilia Pineda for document preparation.

The authors would also like to thank the Azerbaijan International Operating Company (AIOC) for providing us with valuable data. Sean Culhane perfomed an editorial review and coordinated the production of this volume.