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IMF Working Papers

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International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Published Date:
September 2016
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Working Paper No. 16/98

Macroprudential Policy and Financial Stability in the Arab Region

Ananthakrishnan Prasad, Heba Abdel Monem, and Pilar Garcia Martinez

Working Paper No. 16/99

Spillovers from Japan’s Unconventional Monetary Policy to Emerging Asia: A Global VAR approach

Giovanni Ganelli and Nour Tawk

Working Paper No. 16/100

How do Experts Forecast Sovereign Spreads?

Jacopo Cimadomo, Peter Claeys, and Marcos Poplawski-Ribeiro

Working Paper 16/101

Estimating the Effects of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) on Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC)

Diego A. Cerdeiro

Working Paper 16/102

Testing Shock Transmission Channels to Low-Income Developing Countries

Nina Biljanovska and Alexis Meyer-Cirkel

Working Paper 16/103

Monetary and Fiscal Policies and the Dynamics of the Yield Curve in Morocco

Calixte Ahokpossi, Pilar Garcia Martinez, and Laurent Kemoe

Working Paper 16/104

Fiscal Buffers, Private Debt, and Stagnation: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

Nicoletta Batini, Giovanni Melina, and Stefania Villa

Working Paper 16/105

China and Asia in Global Trade Slowdown

Gee Hee Hong, Jaewoo Lee, Wei Liao, and Dulani Seneviratne

Working Paper 16/106

Chinese Imports: What’s Behind the Slowdown?

Joong Shik Kang and Wei Liao

Working Paper 16/107

External Adjustment in Oil Exporters:

The Role of Fiscal Policy and the Exchange Rate

Alberto Behar and Armand Fouejieu

Working Paper 16/108

Global Financial Conditions and Monetary Policy Autonomy

Carlos Caceres, Yan Carriere-Swallow, and Bertrand Gruss

Working Paper 16/109

Foreign Bank Subsidiaries’ Default Risk during the Global Crisis: What Factors Help Insulate Affiliates from their Parents?

Deniz Anginer, Eugenio Cerutti, and Maria Soledad Martinez Peria

Working Paper 16/110

Changes in Prudential Policy Instruments—A New Cross-Country Database

Eugenio Cerutti, Ricardo Correa, Elisabetta Fiorentino, and Esther Segalla

Working Paper 16/111

Inequality, Gender Gaps, and Economic Growth: Comparative Evidence for Sub-Saharan Africa

Dalia Hakura, Mumtaz Hussain, Monique Newiak, Vimal Thakoor, and Fan Yang

Working Paper 16/112

What Does Aid Do to Fiscal Policy? New Evidence

Jean-Louis Combes, Rasmané Ouedraogo, and Sampawende J.-A. Tapsoba

Working Paper 16/113

The Consequences of Policy Uncertainty: Disconnects and Dilutions in the South African Real Effective Exchange Rate-Export Relationship

Sandile Hlatshwayo and Magnus Saxegaard

Working Paper 16/114

Product Market Deregulation and Growth: New Country-Industry-Level Evidence

Romain Bouis, Romain A. Duval, and Johannes Eugster

Working Paper 16/115

Investing in Electricity, Growth, and Debt Sustainability: The Case of Lesotho

Michele Andreolli and Aidar Abdychev

Working Paper 16/116

The Short-Term Impact of Product Market Reforms: A Cross-Country Firm-Level Analysis

Peter N. Gal and Alexander Hijzen

Working Paper 16/117

The Impact of Trade Agreements: New Approach, New Insights

Swarnali Ahmed Hannan

Working Paper 16/118

Women’s Opportunities and Challenges in Sub-Saharan African Job Markets

Christine Dieterich, Anni Huang, and Alun H. Thomas

Working Paper 16/119

The Impact of Product Market Reforms on Firm Productivity in Italy

Sergi Lanau and Petia Topalova

Working Paper 16/120

Monetary Policy Implementation and Volatility Transmission along the Yield Curve: The Case of Kenya

Emre Alper, R. Armando Morales, and Fan Yang

Working Paper 16/121

Income Polarization in the United States

Ali Alichi, Kory Kantenga, and Juan Sole

Working Paper 16/122

What’s Up with U.S. Wage Growth and Job Mobility?

Stephan Danninger

Working Paper 16/123

Syria’s Conflict Economy

Jeanne Gobat and Kristina Kostial

Working Paper 16/124

What is Keeping U.S. Core Inflation Low: Insights from a Bottom-Up Approach

Yasser Abdih, Ravi Balakrishnan, and Baoping Shang

Working Paper 16/125

U.S. Dollar Dynamics: How Important Are Policy Divergence and FX Risk Premiums?

Ravi Balakrishnan, Stefan Laseen, and Andrea Pescatori

Working Paper 16/126

Did the Global Financial Crisis Break the U.S. Phillips Curve?

Stefan Laseen and Marzie Taheri Sanjani

Working Paper 16/127

U.S. Corporate Income Tax Reform and its Spillovers

Kimberly Clausing, Edward Kleinbard, and Thornton Matheson

Working Paper 16/128

A National Wealth Approach to Banking Crises and Financial Stability

Olivier Frecaut

Working Paper 16/129

Outside the Band: Depreciation and Inflation Dynamics in Chile

Esther Perez Ruiz

Working Paper 16/130

A Network Model of Multilaterally Equilibrium Exchange Rates

Alexei Kireyev and Andrei Leonidov

Working Paper 16/131

An Analysis of OPEC’s Strategic Actions, U.S. Shale Growth and the 2014 Oil Price Crash

Alberto Behar and Robert A. Ritz

Working Paper 16/132

Inflation, Financial Developments, and Wealth Distribution

Wai-Yip Alex Ho and Chun-Yu Ho

Working Paper 16/133

Fixed Base Year vs. Chain Linking in National Accounts: Experience of Sub-Saharan African Countries

Robert Dippelsman, Venkat Josyula, and Eric Métreau

Working Paper 16/134

Insolvency and Enforcement Reforms in Italy

José Garrido

Working Paper 16/135

Cleaning-up Bank Balance Sheets: Economic, Legal, and Supervisory Measures for Italy

José Garrido, Emanuel Kopp, and Anke Weber

Working Paper 16/136

The Dynamics of Sovereign Debt Crises and Bailouts

Francisco Roch and Harald Uhlig

Working Paper 16/137

South Africa: Labor Market Dynamics and Inequality

Rahul Anand, Siddharth Kothari and Naresh Kumar

Working Paper 16/138

The Fiscal Multiplier in Small Open Economy: The Role of Liquidity Frictions

Jasmin Sin

Working Paper 16/139

6½ Decades of Global Trade and Income: “New Normal” or “Back to Normal” after GTC and GFC?

Sanjay Kalra

Working Paper 16/140

Gender Equality and Economic Diversification

Romina Kazandjian, Lisa Kolovich, Kalpana Kochhar, and Monique Newiak

Working Paper 16/141

The Role of Fiscal Transfers in Smoothing Regional Shocks: Evidence from Existing Federations

Tigran Poghosyan, Abdelhak Senhadji, and Carlo Cottarelli

Working Paper 16/142

Does Conditionality Mitigate the Potential Negative Effect of Aid on Revenues?

Ernesto Crivelli and Sanjeev Gupta

Working Paper 16/143

No Extension without Representation? Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Collective Bargaining

Alexander Hijzen and Pedro S. Martins

Working Paper 16/144

Fiscal Multipliers and Institutions in Peru: Getting the Largest Bang for the Sol

Svetlana Vtyurina and Zulima Leal

Working Paper 16/145

Sovereign Risk and Deposit Dynamics: Evidence from Europe

David A. Grigorian and Vlad Manole

Working Paper 16/146

The Design of Fiscal Reform Packages: Insights from a Theoretical Endogenous Growth Model

Andrew Hodge

Working Paper 16/147

Sovereign Debt Restructuring and Growth

Lorenzo Forni, Geremia Palomba, Joana Pereira, and Christine J. Richmond

Working Paper 16/148

Climate Mitigation in China: Which Policies Are Most Effective?

Ian W.H. Parry, Baoping Shang, Philippe Wingender, Nate Vernon, and Tarun Narasimhan

Working Paper 16/149

Gender Budgeting: Fiscal Context and Current Outcomes

Janet Gale Stotsky

Working Paper 16/150

Asia: A Survey of Gender Budgeting Efforts

Lekha Chakraborty

Working Paper 16/151

Middle East and Central Asia: A Survey of Gender Budgeting Efforts

Lisa Kolovich and Sakina Shibuya

Working Paper 16/152

Sub-Saharan Africa: A Survey of Gender Budgeting Efforts

Janet Gale Stotsky, Lisa Kolovich, and Suhaib Kebhaj

Working Paper 16/153

Western Hemisphere: A Survey of Gender Budgeting Efforts

Lucía Pérez Fragoso and Corina Rodríguez Enríquez

Working Paper 16/154

Caribbean and Pacific Islands: A Survey of Gender Budgeting Efforts

Tamoya A. L. Christie and Dhanaraj Thakur

Working Paper 16/155

Europe: A Survey of Gender Budgeting Efforts Sheila Quinn

Working Paper 16/156

The Case for an Independent Fiscal Institution in Japan

George Kopits

Working Paper 16/157

Reflating Japan: Time to Get Unconventional?

Elif Arbatli, Dennis P. J. Botman, Kevin Clinton, Pietro Cova, Vitor Gaspar, Zoltan Jakab, Douglas Laxton, Constant Lonkeng Ngouana, Joannes Mongardini, and Hou Wang

Working Paper 16/158

Measuring Concentration Risk: A Partial Portfolio Approach

Pierpaolo Grippa and Lucyna Gornicka

Working Paper 16/159

Inflation and the Black Market Exchange Rate in a Repressed Market: A Model of Venezuela

Valerie Cerra

Working Paper 16/160

Testing Piketty’s Hypothesis on the Drivers of Income Inequality: Evidence from Panel VARs with Heterogeneous Dynamics

Carlos Góes

Working Paper 16/161

The Impact of Oil Prices on the Banking System in the GCC

Padamja Khandelwal, Ken Miyajima, and Andre Santos

Working Paper 16/162

From Firm-Level Imports to Aggregate Productivity: Evidence from Korean Manufacturing Firms Data

JaeBin Ahn and Moon Jung Choi

Working Paper 16/163

A Probabilistic Approach to Fiscal Space and Prudent Debt Level: Application to Low-Income Developing Countries

Olumuyiwa Adedeji, Calixte Ahokpossi, Claudio Battiati, and Mai Farid

Working Paper 16/164

Investing to Mitigate and Adapt to Climate Change: A Framework Model

Anthony Bonen, Prakash Loungani, Willi Semmler, and Sebastian Koch

Working Paper 16/165

Evolution of Exchange Rate Behavior in the ASEAN-5 Countries

Vladimir Klyuev and To-Nhu Dao

Working Paper 16/166

What is Responsible for India’s Sharp Disinflation?

Sajjid Chinoy, Pankaj Kumar, and Prachi Mishra

Working Paper 16/167

Monetary Transmission in Developing Countries: Evidence from India

Prachi Mishra, Peter Montiel, and Rajeswari Sengupta

Working Paper 16/168

The Real Exchange Rate: Assessment and Trade Impact in the Context of Fiji and Samoa

Jan Gottschalk, Carl Miller, Lanieta Rauqeuqe, Isoa Wainiqolo, and Yongzheng Yang

Working Paper 16/169

Demographic Dividends, Gender Equality, and Economic Growth: The Case of Cabo Verde

Heloisa Marone

Working Paper 16/170

Spillovers from China’s Growth Slowdown and Rebalancing to the ASEAN-5 Economies

Allan Dizioli, Jaime Guajardo, Vladimir Klyuev, Rui Mano, and Mehdi Raissi

Working Paper 16/171

Can Reform Waves Turn the Tide? Some Case Studies Using the Synthetic Control Method

Bibek Adhikari, Romain A. Duval, Bingjie Hu, and Prakash Loungani

IMF Working Papers and other IMF publications can be downloaded in full-text format from the Research at the IMF website: http://www.imf.org/research.

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