Working Paper 13/235

Cross-Border Activity of Japanese Banks

Raphael W. Lam

Working Paper 13/236

Drivers of Growth: Evidence from Sub-Saharan African Countries

Manuk Ghazanchyan; Janet Gale Stotsky

Working Paper 13/237

The Investment-Financing-Growth Nexus: The Case of Liberia

Will Clark; Manuel Rosales

Working Paper 13/238

Debt Reduction, Fiscal Adjustment, and Growth in Credit-Constrained Economies

Emanuele Baldacci; Sanjeev Gupta; Carlos Mulas-Granados

Working Paper 13/239

Money Targeting in a Modern Forecasting and Policy Analysis System: An Application to Kenya

Michal Andrle; Andrew Berg; Enrico Berkes; Rafael A. Portillo; Jan Vlcek; R. Armando Morales

Working Paper 13/240

Sector-Level Productivity, Structural Change, and Rebalancing in China

Malhar Nabar; Kai Yan

Working Paper 13/241

Aggregate Uncertainty and the Supply of Credit

Fabian Valencia

Working Paper 13/242

Baltic and Icelandic Experiences of Capital Flows and Capital Flow Measures

Audun Groenn; Maria Wallin Fredholm

Working Paper 13/243

Local Government Financing Platforms in China: A Fortune or Misfortune?

Yinqiu Lu; Tao Sun

Working Paper 13/244

Understanding Countries’ Tax Effort

Ricardo Fenochietto; Carola Pessino

Working Paper 13/245

Labor Force Participation and Monetary Policy in the Wake of the Great Recession

Christopher J. Erceg; Andrew Levin

Working Paper 13/246

Credit Constraints, Political Instability, and Capital Accumulation

Risto Herrala; Rima Turk Ariss

Working Paper 13/247

The Redistributive Effects of Financial Deregulation

Anton Korinek; Jonathan Kreamer

Working Paper 13/248

This Time They Are Different: Heterogeneity and Nonlinearity in the Relationship Between Debt and Growth

Markus Eberhardt; Andrea Presbitero

Working Paper 13/249

Inequality, Leverage, and Crises: The Case of Endogenous Default

Michael Kumhof; Romain Ranciere; Pablo Winant

Working Paper 13/250

Africa’s Rising Exposure to China: How Large Are Spillovers Through Trade?

Paulo Drummond; Estelle X. Liu

Working Paper 13/251

Monetary Transmission in Brazil: Has the Credit Channel Changed?

Mercedes Garcia-Escribano

Working Paper 13/252

A Financial Conditions Index for Poland

Giang Ho; Yinqiu Lu

Working Paper 13/253

Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the World Economy: A Panel Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach

Francis Vitek

Working Paper 13/254

Real Money Investors and Sovereign Bond Yields

Laura Jaramillo; Yuanyan Sophia Zhang

Working Paper 13/255

Securitization: Lessons Learned and the Road Ahead

Miguel A. Segoviano Basurto; Bradley Jones; Peter Lindner; Johannes Blankenheim

Working Paper 13/256

Adding China to the Global Projection Model

Patrick Blagrave; Peter Elliott; Roberto Garcia-Saltos; Douglas Hostland; Douglas Laxton; Fan Zhang

Working Paper 13/257

System Priors: Formulating Priors about DSGE Models’ Properties

Michal Andrle; Jaromir Benes

Working Paper 13/258

Procyclicality and the Search for Early Warning Indicators

Hyun Song Shin

Working Paper 13/259

Resilience in Latin America: Lessons from Macroeconomic Management and Financial Policies

Jose De Gregorio

Working Paper 13/260

External Imbalances and Financial Crises

Alan Taylor

Working Paper 13/261

Natural Gas, Public Investment, and Debt Sustainability in Mozambique

Giovanni Melina; Yi Xiong

Working Paper 13/262

The Benefits of International Policy Coordination Revisited

Jaromir Benes; Michael Kumhof; Douglas Laxton; Dirk Muir; Susanna Mursula

Working Paper 13/263

Financial Soundness Indicators and Banking Crises

Matias Costa Navajas; Aaron Thegeya

Working Paper 13/264

Global Spillovers into Domestic Bond Markets in Emerging Market Economies

Laura Jaramillo; Anke Weber

Working Paper 13/265

Consumption Based Estimates of Urban Chinese Growth

Marcos Chamon; Irineu E. Carvalho Filho

Working Paper 13/266

Financial and Sovereign Debt Crises: Some Lessons Learned and Those Forgotten

Carmen Reinhart; Kenneth Rogoff

Working Paper 13/267

Does Financial Connectedness Predict Crises?

Camelia Minoiu; Chanhyun Kang; V.S. Subrahmanian; Anamaria Berea

Working Paper 13/268

Development of the Renminbi Market in Hong Kong SAR: Assessing Onshore-Offshore Market Integration

R. Sean Craig; Changchun Hua; Philip Ng; Raymond Yuen

Working Paper 13/269

Macroeconomic Effects of Sovereign Restructuring in a Monetary Union: A Model-Based Approach

Lorenzo Forni; Massimiliano Pisani

Working Paper 13/270

Sovereign Debt Markets in Turbulent Times: Creditor Discrimination and Crowding-Out

Fernando Broner; Aitor Erce; Alberto Martin; Jaume Ventura

Working Paper 13/271

Macrofinancial Linkages in Egypt: A Panel Analysis of Economic Shocks and Loan Portfolio Quality

Inessa Love; Rima Turk Ariss

Working Paper 13/272

The External Balance Assessment (EBA) Methodology

Steven Phillips; Luis Catão; Luca Antonio Ricci; Rudolfs Bems; Mitali Das; Julian di Giovanni; D. Filiz Unsal; Marola Castillo; Jungjin Lee; Jair Rodriguez; Mauricio Vargas

Working Paper 13/273

IMF-Supported Programs in Low Income Countries: Economic Impact over the Short and Longer Term

Christian Mumssen; Yasemin Bal-Gunduz; Christian Ebeke; Linda Kaltani

Working Paper 14/1

Real Exchange Rate Appreciation in Emerging Markets: Can Fiscal Policy Help?

Marialuz Moreno Badia; Alex Segura-Ubiergo

Working Paper 14/2

Potential Growth in Emerging Asia

Rahul Anand; Kevin C. Cheng; Sidra Rehman; Longmei Zhang

Working Paper 14/3

Economic Growth and Government Spending in Saudi Arabia: An Empirical Investigation

Saad A. Alshahrani; Ali J. Alsadiq

Working Paper 14/5

Resource Blessing, Revenue Curse? Domestic Revenue Effort in Resource-Rich Countries

Ernesto Crivelli; Sanjeev Gupta

Working Paper 14/6

Reforming Capital Taxation in Italy

Luc Eyraud

Working Paper 14/7

Reforming Tax Expenditures in Italy: What, Why, and How?

Justin Tyson

Working Paper 14/8

Effectiveness of Capital Outflow Restrictions

Christian Saborowski; Sarah Sanya; Hans Weisfeld; Juan Yepez

Working Paper 14/9

Global Liquidity Through the Lens of Monetary Aggregates

Kyuil Chung; Jong-Eun Lee; Elena Loukoianova; Hail Park; Hyun Song Shin

Working Paper 14/10

Mapping the Shadow Banking System Through a Global Flow of Funds Analysis

Luca Errico; Artak Harutyunyan; Elena Loukoianova; Richard Walton; Yevgeniya Korniyenko; Goran Amidžic; Hanan AbuShanab; Hyun Song Shin

Working Paper 14/11

Exchange Rate Management and Crisis Susceptibility: A Reassessment

Atish R. Ghosh; Jonathan David Ostry; Mahvash Saeed Qureshi

Working Paper 14/12

Thin Capitalization Rules and Multinational Firm Capital Structure

Jennifer Blouin; Harry Huizinga; Luc Laeven; Gaetan Nicodeme

Working Paper 14/13

Remittances and Vulnerability in Developing Countries

Giulia Bettin; Andrea Presbitero; Nicola Spatafora

Working Paper 14/14

Financial Soundness Indicators and the Characteristics of Financial Cycles

Natasha Xingyuan Che; Yoko Shinagawa

Working Paper 14/15

The Quest for Non-Resource-Based FDI: Do Taxes Matter?

Tidiane Kinda

Working Paper 14/16

Boosting Job Growth in the Western Balkans

Dmitriy Kovtun; Alexis Mayer Cirkel; Zuzana Murgasova;

Dustin Smith; Suchanan Tambunlertchai

Working Paper 14/17

Sovereign CDS Spreads in Europe: The Role of Global Risk Aversion, Economic Fundamentals, Liquidity, and Spillovers

Frigyes F. Heinz; Yan Sun

Working Paper 14/18

Policy Responses to Aid Surges in Countries with Limited International Capital Mobility: The Role of the Exchange Rate Regime

Andrew Berg; Rafael A. Portillo; Luis-Felipe Zanna

Working Paper 14/19

A Hybrid Approach to Estimating the Efficiency of Public Spending on Education in Emerging and Developing Economies

Francesco Grigoli

Working Paper 14/20

Sub-National Credit Risk and Sovereign Bailouts: Who Pays the Premium?

E. Jenkner; Zhongjin Lu

Working Paper 14/21

Bulgaria’s EU Funds Absorption: Maximizing the Potential!

Iana Paliova; Tonny Lybek

Working Paper 14/22

Leaning Against the Wind: Macroprudential Policy in Asia

Longmei Zhang; Edda Zoli

IMF Working Papers and other IMF publications can be downloaded in full-text format from the Research at the IMF website: www.imf.org/research.