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Monetary Analysis of Income and Imports and Its Statistical Application

Author(s):
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Published Date:
January 1960
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AS THE FIRST STAGE in the development of a monetary analysis of income and imports, an earlier study1 derived a simple theoretical model of countries’ economies in which monetary and balance of payments developments were integrated. That study led to certain general conclusions about the effects of credit expansion and of changes in exports that, it was believed, would be helpful in understanding the developments with which one is often faced in the study of individual countries. For the most part, the conclusions did not involve the use of numerical coefficients pertinent to particular countries.

The model can, however, be of greater use if it is given statistical content relevant to particular countries. It should then provide an explanation, in numerical terms, of the fluctuations in a country’s income, imports, money, and international reserves on the basis of data for that country’s exports, capital imports, and credit creation. Insofar as this explanation provides a satisfactory approximation of the actual development in the past of the variables explained, the same model is usable in connection with decisions of economic policy: given a country’s past exports, capital imports, and credit creation, the model can be used to compute the amount of credit creation which, together with certain estimated values for exports and capital imports, will lead to the attainment of certain desired levels of income and reserves.

To make the model suitable for the quantitative treatment of developments in individual countries requires the clarification of a number of statistical questions in order that the data may be arranged as nearly as possible in accordance with the concepts of the theory. This includes the proper definition, for our purposes, of such terms as imports, money, etc. It also requires some expansion of the theory, in order to come closer to a full explanation of the facts. To establish as firmly as possible the general elements in the theory, it is usually helpful to be able to show what specific other factors are the causes of the developments in the observed data that cannot be attributed to these general elements.

Part I of this paper is therefore concerned with the practical problems that arise in connection with this empirical work—the arrangement of the data to accord with the theory and some expansion of the theory to increase its usefulness in explaining the facts. The paper does not deal with the interpretation of the statistical results or with the qualifications that necessarily apply to this interpretation. Some of the latter were mentioned in the 1957 paper.

Part II shows the results obtained by applying the model to 39 countries, generally from 1948 or 1949 to 1958. The calculations in Part II are not intended to provide a definitive study of the application of the model to any one country. It is entirely probable that a more intensive study of the monetary structure and payments data for a particular country would lead to refinements that would improve the results. The purpose of the presentation is rather to assess the general applicability of the model by presenting the preliminary results of its application to as many countries as possible.2

I. Theoretical Problems Raised by Application of the Model to Country Data

1. The simple system

It may be convenient to recall the basic system in its simplest form, as shown in the 1957 paper. The central equation of that system is

in which Y indicates national income (money value), ΔMO is the increase in the quantity of money, and t refers to an income period, i.e., the fraction of a year indicated by the ratio of money to annual income.3 This equation may be interpreted in either of two ways:

(1) If the income velocity of money is constant, the income of the next period will equal the current period’s income plus the increase in the quantity of money.

(2) If the income velocity of money is constant, the quantity of money will increase from one income period to the next by the same amount as income.

The increase in the quantity of money is then split into its constituents, the increases in (net) foreign assets (R) and in (net) domestic assets (D):

The balance of payments equation,

states that the increase in reserves (ΔR) equals exports (X) minus imports (M) plus capital movements [C (t) ].4

The combination of (2) and (3) yields an explanation of the change in money, and thereby of the change in income, in terms of three variables considered autonomous and of imports:

In what follows, the three autonomous terms will often be used in combination, for which the term Q(t) is used:

Imports are expressed as a function of income:5

From (6), (5), (4), and (1) we find

Dividing by (1 + m) and eliminating the terms with Y in the right-hand side of (7) by iteration, we obtain

and the corresponding import equation,

These two equations express Y and M in terms of the autonomous determinants of the system.

To facilitate the statistical work, we make use of an alternative definition of Q(t), which follows from (4) and (5):

This relationship makes it possible to proceed in the explanation of imports and of income without first determining exports, capital movements, and credit creation separately. The relationship also makes it clear that the allocation of any transaction to one or the other of these categories will not affect the ultimate result of the income or import calculations.

It might appear odd that the term Q, used in explaining imports, itself contains imports in addition to the change in money. But there is no reason to be concerned about this. The addition of M (t) to ΔMO (t) in (5’) does not make imports an explanatory factor in the fluctuations of imports. The addition is necessary in order to obtain the autonomous expansion of money, which is not fully shown by the actual increase in money. Imports have undone part of the effects of the autonomous increase in money; to get a proper measure of the autonomous expansionary factors, the money that was taken out by imports has to be added back to the observed increase in money.

2. Balance of payments data

To determine the gross expansionary factors that act through the balance of payments, and the response of the balance of payments to the gross domestic and foreign expansionary factors, the balance of payments items for any country are divided into four categories, which are here called Export Receipts, Import Payments, Capital Movements, and Reserve Movements (Table 1). All items are expressed in a country’s own currency; for countries with multiple exchange rates, entries reported in dollars have been converted at the exchange rate applicable to the transaction in question. The entries represent, therefore, the domestic currency amounts paid or received by a country’s residents in connection with the transactions concerned.

Table 1.Systematic Classification of Balance of Payments Items
X = Export ReceiptsC = Capital Movements
M = Import PaymentsΔR = Change in Reserves
CreditDebit
MerchandiseXM
Nonmonetary goldXM
Investment incomeX–X
Freight and insurance on imports recorded c.i.f.–M(no entry)
Other services plus private donationsXM
Government donations
Reparations–M–X
Project–MC
OtherCC
Net errors and omissionsC or XC or M
Private capital
Project loan liabilities financing imports–MC
Assets and other liabilitiesCC
Official and banking capital plus monetary gold
Project loan liabilities financing imports–MC
Long-term assets and other long-term liabilitiesCC
Gold payments and short-term liabilities to IMFCC
Short-term assets and other monetary gold and short-term liabilitiesΔRΔR

Export receipts

Export receipts cover (1) receipts from merchandise exports, including military aid exports, (2) any credit entry for nonmonetary gold, (3) net investment income (for most countries a negative item), (4) gross receipts from other services, including military aid services, and (5) private donations received.

Import payments

Import payments cover (1) payments for merchandise imports other than (a) those received under military aid, (b) nonmilitary grants of a project type, and (c) private and official project loans, (2) any debit entry for nonmonetary gold, (3) payments for services other than (a) those received under military aid and (b) investment income payments, and (4) private donations extended.

Capital movements

These movements cover all items in the balance of payments that are not included in the two preceding categories or in reserve movements. Hence, this category includes (1) official donations with the exception of military grants and nonmilitary project grants received, (2) the net movement of private capital excluding the counterpart of imports under private project loans, and (3) the net movement of official and banking assets and liabilities other than reserve movements (mostly government capital transactions), and the counterpart of government imports under project loans.

As a rule, errors and omissions are allocated to Capital Movements. However, if it is believed that they refer either mainly to export receipts or mainly to import payments, they are allocated to the relevant one of these two categories.

Reserve movements

By the definitions used, Export Payments plus Capital Movements minus Import Payments equal Reserve Movements. Figures for changes in reserves are arrived at by adding balance of payments data for official and banks’ short-term assets, short-term liabilities, and monetary gold.6

Several items which involve equal debits and credits are eliminated altogether from the analysis. These offsetting items include imports under military aid programs and under project loans and grants, and the corresponding financing.7 In determining whether such offsetting items should be eliminated, the guiding criterion is whether or not the imports can be treated as related to domestic income in the manner assumed in the model.

3. Monetary data

The monetary balance sheet implied in equation (2) contains two domestic variables: money and net credit creation. Since net credit creation is arrived at by subtracting the increase in nonmonetary liabilities from gross credit creation, the definitions of net credit creation and of money are interrelated. A narrow definition of money, which for most countries does not include time or savings deposits, is used throughout this paper; this is the definition used in the Fund’s publication, International Financial Statistics (IFS). By equation (2), net credit creation equals the increase in money less the increase in net foreign assets. To assure agreement with the balance of payments data, net credit creation is measured by subtracting the change in foreign assets based on balance of payments statistics from the change in money.8 In a few countries that have multiple currency rates, however, the IFS data on foreign assets and foreign liabilities (adjusted, where necessary, in order to eliminate changes in value owing to the revaluation of these items) have been used as an indicator of the net payment or receipt of local currency on account of all other items in the balance of payments.

It should be recalled that the figure for foreign assets used in the derivation of net credit creation does not affect the value for Q; any errors in ΔR, leading to corresponding errors in ΔD, will be offset in the figure for C, which is derived as a residual.

4. The coefficients

As shown in Appendix II of the 1957 paper, the values over time of income, imports, money, and reserves in terms of the autonomous variables can be expressed by two coefficients, the propensity to import (m) and the income velocity of money (v).9

Velocity (v) is computed by dividing estimated end-of-year figures for Gross National Product (GNP) by the figures for money; the method followed to derive the required GNP estimates is described below (pages 364–65). Where no GNP figures are available, national income figures are used. The average velocity for the entire period studied is derived as a simple average of the end-of-year velocity figures. (Frequently the average is rounded.)

The import-income ratio is obtained by dividing import payments, as defined above, by GNP for the same year (not year-end). The average ratio is derived as a simple average of the annual ratios for the period studied. (Frequently the average is rounded.)

A derivation, for certain values of v and m, of the import and income coefficients based on annual data is given in Appendix II of the 1957 paper. The derivation becomes slightly different now that the lag in the import equation has been eliminated. A simplified presentation of the coefficients for the import equation on the old and the new basis is given in Table 2.10 To obtain the income coefficients for the new system, the term 1mv in each import coefficient given in the table is replaced by1m2υ.

Table 2.Coefficients for the Determination ofM(0)
Coefficient

for
One Period Lag in

Import Equation1
No Lag in Import

Equation1
Q(0)1[-(1-sυ)]1[-(1-rυ)]
Q(–I)1(1-sυ)21(1-rυ)2
Q(–II)1sυ(1-sυ)21rυ(1-rυ)2
Q(–III)1s2υ(1-sυ)21r2υ(1-rυ)2

s=1-m;r=11+m

s=1-m;r=11+m

Tables 3 and 4 provide, respectively, the import and the income coefficients for the range v=2 to 10, m =0.10 to 0.50. For any intermediate values, straight line interpolation is used.

Table 3.Coefficients forQ (0), Q (–I), Q (–II), andQ (–III) in the Determination ofM (0)
Velocity

υ
Import-Income

Ratio

m
Coefficients for
Q(0)Q(–I)Q(–II)Q(–III)Sum
0.100.130.150.120.100.50
0.150.190.200.150.110.65
0.200.240.230.160.110.74
0.250.280.260.170.110.82
20.300.320.280.160.100.86
0.350.360.290.160.090.90
0.400.390.300.150.080.92
0.450.420.310.150.070.95
0.500.440.310.140.060.95
0.100.170.210.150.120.65
0.150.240.260.170.110.78
0.200.300.300.170.100.87
0.250.350.320.160.080.91
30.300.390.330.150.070.94
0.350.430.340.140.060.97
0.400.470.340.120.040.97
0.450.500.330.110.040.98
0.500.530.330.100.030.99
0.100.210.250.170.120.75
0.150.290.310.170.100.87
0.200.350.340.160.080.93
0.250.410.350.140.060.96
40.300.460.350.120.040.97
0.350.500.350.110.030.99
0.400.540.340.090.020.99
0.450.570.330.070.020.99
0.500.600.320.060.010.99
0.100.240.290.190.110.83
0.150.330.340.170.080.92
0.200.400.360.140.060.96
0.250.460.360.120.040.98
50.300.510.350.100.030.99
0.350.550.340.080.020.99
0.400.590.330.060.010.99
0.450.620.320.050.011.00
0.500.650.300.040.011.00
0.100.270.320.180.100.87
0.150.370.360.150.070.95
0.200.450.370.120.040.98
0.250.510.360.100.020.99
60.300.560.350.070.010.99
0.350.600.330.060.011.00
0.400.640.310.040.011.00
0.450.670.300.030.001.00
0.500.700.280.020.001.00
0.100.300.340.170.090.90
0.150.410.370.140.050.97
0.200.490.370.100.030.99
0.250.550.360.070.021.00
70.300.600.340.050.011.00
0.350.640.320.040.001.00
0.400.680.290.030.001.00
0.450.710.270.020.001.00
0.500.730.250.020.001.00
0.100.330.350.170.080.93
0.150.440.380.120.040.98
0.200.520.370.080.020.99
0.250.580.350.060.011.00
80.300.630.320.040.011.00
0.350.670.300.030.001.00
0.400.710.270.020.001.00
0.450.740.250.010.001.00
0.500.760.230.010.001.00
0.100.360.370.160.070.96
0.150.470.380.110.030.99
0.200.550.360.070.010.99
0.250.620.330.040.011.00
90.300.670.300.030.001.00
0.350.700.280.020.001.00
0.400.740.250.010.001.00
0.450.760.230.010.001.00
0.500.780.210.010.001.00
0.100.380.380.150.060.97
0.150.500.380.090.020.99
0.200.580.350.060.011.00
0.250.640.320.040.001.00
100.300.690.290.020.001.00
0.350.730.260.010.001.00
0.400.760.230.010.001.00
0.450.780.210.010.001.00
0.500.800.200.000.001.00
Table 4.Coefficients forQ (0), Q (–I), Q (–II), andQ (–III) in the Determination ofY (0)
Velocity

υ
Import-Income

Ratio

m
Coefficients for
Q(0)Q(–I)Q(–II)Q(–III)Sum
0.101.331.511.241.035.11
0.151.251.321.000.754.32
0.201.181.170.810.563.72
0.251.121.040.660.423.24
20.301.070.930.550.322.87
0.351.020.830.460.252.56
0.400.970.750.380.202.30
0.450.930.680.320.152.08
0.500.890.620.270.121.90
0.101.712.061551.166.48
0.151.591.741.140.755.22
0.201.491.480.860.504.33
0.251.401.270.650.333.65
30.301.321.100.500.233.15
0.351.240.960.390.162.75
0.401.180.840.310.112.44
0.451.120.740.240.082.18
0.501.060.660.200.061.98
0.102.082.511.721.177.48
0.151.912.041.170.675.79
0.201.761.680.810.394.64
0.251.641.390.570.233.83
40.301.531.170.410.143.25
0.351.431.000.300.092.82
0.401.340.860.220.062.48
0.451.270.740.170.042.22
0.501.200.640.130.032.00
0.102.422.871.781.118.18
0.152.202.251.120.566.13
0.202.011.790.720.294.81
0.251.851.450.470.163.93
50.301.711.190.320.093.31
0.351.590.990.220.052.85
0.401.480.830.150.032.49
0.451.390.700.110.022.22
0.501.310.600.080.012.00
0.102.743.161.781.018.69
0.152.462.391.030.456.33
0.202.231.840.620.214.90
0.252.031.450.380.103.96
60.301.871.160.240.053.32
0.351.720.950.160.032.86
0.401.600.780.100.012.49
0.451.490.650.070.012.22
0.501.390.560.050.002.00
0.103.053.381.740.899.06
0.152.712.470.930.356.46
0.202.421.860.520.144.94
0.252.191.430.300.063.98
70.302.001.120.180.033.33
0.351.830.900.110.012.86
0.401.690.730.070.012.50
0.451.570.600.050.002.22
0.501.460.510.030.002.00
0.103.333.561.660.779.32
0.152.932.520.820.276.54
0.202.601.840.430.104.97
0.252.341.380.230.043.99
80.302.111.070.130.023.33
0.351.930.840.080.012.86
0.401.770.680.050.002.50
0.451.640.550.030.002.22
0.501.520.460.020.002.00
0.103.603.681.560.669.50
0.153.132.530.720.206.58
0.202.761.810.350.074.99
0.252.461.330.180.023.99
90.302.211.010.100.013.33
0.352.010.790.050.002.85
0.401.840.630.030.002.50
0.451.690.510.020.002.22
0.501.570.420.010.002.00
0.103.863.781.460.569.66
0.153.322.520.620.156.61
0.202.901.760.280.054.99
0.252.571.270.140.024.00
100.302.300.950.070.013.33
0.352.080.740.040.002.86
0.401.900.580.020.002.50
0.451.740.470.010.002.22
0.501.610.380.010.002.00

The basic structure of the model, which assumes proportionality between (1) income and imports and (2) income and money, makes it plausible to suppose that the main part of the model could be described in terms of the import-money ratio alone. Analysis of the import coefficients in Table 3 shows that, in fact, for any two sets of m and v chosen in such a manner that their product mv is the same, the coefficients are approximately the same (in particular if v>2). Now =MYYMO=MMO. Thus, for instance, if mv = 1.20, the coefficients are about the same regardless of the combination of m and v from which this product arises:11

Coefficients for
Q(0)Q(–I)Q(–II)Q(–III)
ν=3, m=0.400.470.340.120.04
ν=4, m=0.300.460.350.120.04
ν=6, m=0.200.450.370.120.04
ν=8, m=0.150.440.380.120.04

This is of considerable practical importance: it implies that it is possible to approximate values for the coefficients without knowing v and m separately, provided one knows their product, the ratio of imports to money. Thus, while national income data are required to determine m and v separately, they are not needed to determine mv; and knowledge of mv, together with some plausible guess for m or v, makes it possible to derive, from Table 3, the coefficients needed. It also follows that we need not be greatly concerned about the quality of the national income statistics that have been used to calculate m and v. It should be added that, inasmuch as the income coefficients add up to 1m, these coefficients cannot be expected to be independent of the national income data used.

There is another important aspect in which the import coefficients differ from the income coefficients. Since any set of import coefficients adds up to unity, any error in m or v (even if it is not offset in the product mv) produces only a shift in time of the influence of any one Q; hence the computed M’s are affected only insofar as the Q’s in two adjacent years are different. The same does not apply to the income coefficients. Any error in m (not in v) produces a nearly proportional error in the computed values for income. Thus, if m is taken as 0.40 instead of 0.41 (an error of 212 per cent), the sum of the Y coefficients will work out at 2.50 instead of 2.44, and all computed values of Y will therefore work out as more than 2 per cent too large. The error indicated is very small in terms of our estimate of m (which may be based on an average of yearly figures fluctuating as widely as, say, from 0.35 to 0.45); but it is large in terms of the computed value for Y, which, if the refinements indicated in section 6 are made, should have practically no error at all.

As a result of the margin of uncertainty in respect of m, the average level of income as computed is likely to deviate somewhat from the level as observed. In the values of computed income, the discrepancy on account of this element is eliminated; its magnitude is estimated as the difference between the average actual value for Y and the average computed value for Y along the lines suggested on page 366 (first full paragraph).

Computed imports are obtained by applying the import coefficients as shown in Table 3 to the Q’s. Any shortfall below 1.00 of the coefficients as given in the table is applied to the Q for four years back (with a rough estimate for any years for which Q is not available).12

Computed income is estimated by applying coefficients from Table 4 to the Q’s. Table 4 is limited to the coefficients for four years; their sum is given in the last column of the table. The sum of the coefficients for all years would add up to the reciprocal of the import-income ratio. Any discrepancy between the sum of the coefficients used for four years and this reciprocal is applied to the Q for four years back.12

5. Marginal propensity to import different from average propensity to import

It seemed quite likely that in many countries marginal propensities to import would differ systematically from average propensities to import.13 To investigate this point, a scatter diagram comparing imports and income was made for each country studied; where there appeared to be a systematic difference between the average and the marginal propensity, the weights in the import equation were based on the latter.

The use of a marginal propensity m implies the introduction of a constant term M˜ in (6):

Accordingly, (9) becomes

Since the sum of the coefficients in (9’) equals 1, this can be written as

which means a simple substitution of m’ for m.

The result is not as simple when income, rather than imports, is computed with a marginal propensity to import different from the average propensity. Using (6’), (8) becomes

hence

Thus, not only is m’ substituted for m, but there is also a constant term, -M˜m, added.

6. Expansion of the model to allow for changes in velocity and autonomous imports

There are only two assumptions in our model: the constancy of the income velocity implied in equation (1) and the nature of the import equation (6); the other equations are definitional. What happens if the assumptions are not fulfilled?

The general answer to this question is that it then is not possible to “explain” Y, and hence M, in terms only of the autonomous factors X, ΔD, and C. To “explain” the movements of Y and M it will then be necessary to know the changes in velocity—which involves using data on Y itself—and to know the discrepancies in the import equation—which involves using data on M itself. But even in these circumstances it will be of interest to sort out the past, even if it can no longer be claimed that we explain it; we shall, however, be able to measure the relative influence on Y of export receipts, capital movements, and credit creation, as well as the influence of changes in velocity and discrepancies in the import equation. The best that can be obtained in these circumstances is essentially a definitional relationship, but this relationship may still be of considerable interest. Alternatively, our standard explanation in terms of X, C, and ΔD may be considered as an approximation to this definitional relationship, which will be the more accurate, the smaller the influence of changes in velocity and of import discrepancies.

Changes in income velocity

To allow for changes in velocity, the velocity has to be brought explicitly into the equations. If we define the average ratio of annual income to money as k=1ν, and the ratio in any one year as k(t)=1ν(t), then it can be shown that

Where

and

Since MO is the product of income and velocity, the additive expression for ΔMO given in (10) contains three terms: one with ΔY, one with Δk, and one containing the product of the two changes. There is no unique way of attributing this product to either ΔY or Δk and thus of attaining a unique additive expression for ΔMO with only two terms, one of which can be called the income effect, and the other the velocity effect, on money. Any allocation to arrive at an expression in two terms is necessarily somewhat arbitrary. For our purposes it seems most convenient to allocate the third term entirely to the velocity effect, V (t), thus defining V (t) as the sum of the second and third terms on the right-hand side of (10), with signs reversed.14

Thus

or, defined as a residual,

Expressed in this form, V (t) can be entered directly in the calculations based on annual data. It represents (again with sign reversed) that part of the change in the quantity of money that is not explained by changes in income.

Equation (14) presents a statistical problem inasmuch as we do not have a measure of Y that refers to the same time period that is used for MO. We are using end-of-year data for MO. For most countries, there is only one figure a year indicating the rate of income; this figure refers to the year as a whole, i.e., to the average rate of income during the year. Monetary data exist generally at far more frequent intervals, and from these an average for the year could easily be compiled for MO; but the problem cannot be solved in that manner, for what we would gain here we would lose in (2) and particularly in (3), for which we would no longer be able to use annual balance of payments data. We must, therefore, try to approximate the annual rate of income at or around the end of the year. Where monthly or quarterly national income data are available, they can provide a reasonably satisfactory answer. In the absence of these, the best solution appears to be to estimate the change in income during a year as equal to one half of the change in income between the average of the preceding year and the average of the following year. This is equivalent to estimating end-of-year income as the average of two adjacent years and using these estimated end-of-year figures to obtain the change in income during the year.15

Discrepancies in import equation

If imports are not a linear function of income, we can write a new equation that indicates, by a new variable MA (“autonomous imports”), the extent of the deviation from the income relationship:

If this equation is used instead of (6), the simple result is the appearance of one more additive term, viz., –MA, among the factors determining income.

Figures for –MA are computed by deducting actual import payments from the product of the average import-income ratio and GNP. Where a marginal propensity to import differing from the average is used, MA is measured from the regression line of imports on GNP.

Expansion of the model

The velocity effect and autonomous imports may be considered as new autonomous factors, additional to exports, capital imports, and credit creation, and thus be incorporated in the model as additions to Q(t). This is done simply by replacing Q(t) by Q’(t), defined as follows:

It follows from (5’), (14), and (15) that Q’(t) may also be written as

When the two new variables are thus incorporated in the model as additional explanatory factors, it is clear that they must be considered as playing essentially a stand-in role for the real, as yet unknown, factors that caused the discrepancies in (1) and (6). Thus MA may represent some effect of relative prices on imports that is ignored in (6), or the effect of changing intensity in import restrictions. V may represent responses to changes in interest rates. At a later stage of the analysis, it might be possible to trace to their own causes what are now residuals, and then to bring these causes into the model. For the time being, the residuals may take the place of these causes. As we proceed in replacing, step by step, our stand-in variables by more satisfactory causal variables, we shall, of course, never exhaust the residuals completely; but at some stage, the search for further causes may be stopped by the smallness of the residuals. The acceptance of the remaining residuals at that stage will necessarily mean that the definitional identity of (17) will disappear.

By applying the annual coefficients from Tables 3 and 4 to Q’ (0), Q’(–I), etc., near-perfect “explanations” of M (t) and Y (t) can be found. Basically, the definitions of MA(t) and V (t) and their incorporation into Q’(t) make the whole operation one of manipulating definitional statements. Such small residual errors as still show up in the computed values for M (t) and Y (t), based on the Q’s, are attributable to certain assumptions made in the measurement of the variables. Thus it has been assumed that observed annual rates of Q (t) apply throughout the year, that changes in velocity occur gradually during the year, and that ΔY (t) may be estimated as indicated for the purpose of calculating V (t).

An alternative, more modest, interpretation of the same material is to consider the expansion of the model only as a method of allocating the residuals left by the explanations of M (t) and Y (t) on the basis of the Q’s only. According to this interpretation (which is followed in the country charts shown on pages 377ff.), the residual in the original income equation may be considered to consist of an “MA effect on income” plus a “velocity effect on income.” The former is calculated by applying the income coefficients (Table 4) to the annual values of the MA’s (with sign reversed), and the latter by applying these same coefficients to the Vs. These two components should account substantially for the original residual; any remaining discrepancies must be due to the nonfulfillment of the assumptions of continuity just mentioned.

Not two, but three, elements are required to account for the residual in the import equation. The “MA effect on imports” and the “velocity effect on imports” are similar to the corresponding effects on income, and can be computed by applying to –MA and V the import coefficients from Table 3. In addition to these, there is MA itself, the residual in the elementary import equation (15).

II. Application to Country Data

1. Selection of countries

The charts and tables on pages 376–415 give data for 39 countries to which it was possible to apply the model. A fairly representative geographic coverage has been obtained, including 14 countries in Europe (Austria, Belgium-Luxembourg, Denmark, Finland, France, the Federal Republic of Germany, Ireland, Italy, Norway, the Netherlands, Portugal, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom), 6 in Asia (Burma, Ceylon, India, Japan, the Philippines, and Thailand), 12 in Latin America (Colombia, Costa Rica, Cuba, the Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Peru, and Venezuela), 3 in the Near East (Egypt, Ethiopia, and Iraq), and 4 other countries (Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and the Union of South Africa). A number of countries have been omitted either because certain essential series were missing or were not available in continuity for a sufficient number of years, or because balance of payments figures that are reported to the Fund in dollars could not, on account of exchange rate problems, be converted into local currency. The latter difficulty limited the coverage of the South American countries. The United States has been omitted because, with imports such a small proportion of national income, the coefficients would have to be applied with such a prolonged lag that no useful results would be obtained.

To reduce the bulk of the presentation, the data shown for all 39 countries are limited to the main series and the results of the import calculations. The results of the income calculations are not shown; but the coefficients necessary for that calculation, as well as the values of the Q’s to which they are to be applied, are provided in the tables.

Two charts are given for each country. The first chart shows imports and the determinants of imports, i.e., exports, capital movements, and domestic credit creation—individually and combined as Q. Also included is a curve for changes in reserves. The second chart shows computed imports against actual imports and provides an analysis of the difference between the two curves in terms of MA, MA effects, and V effects. The tables supply the information used in the computations for each country.

In compiling the figures, minor changes in the series used were ignored when they were considered insufficient in magnitude to affect the calculations significantly. Particularly for the earlier years, information for many countries is incomplete, so that MA, MA effects, and V effects for these years are based on partial or estimated data; these are shown as broken lines in the charts. Since the calculation of the V effects for 1958 requires the use of 1959 income figures, adjustments for 1958 are generally not shown.

For convenience, the symbols used in the text, the tables, and the charts are summarized below:

XExport receipts
CCapital movements (net capital imports)
MImport payments
MoDeductions from imports for “project loan” drawings (includes generally loans by the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the Export-Import Bank of Washington, but only those parts of the loans which are estimated to have financed imports that would not otherwise have taken place)
ΔRNet changes in foreign assets of the banking system
MOMoney
ΔDChanges in domestic assets of the banking system (domestic credit expansion)
YIncome—GNP where available, national income in other cases
QX+CD
M/YRatio of imports to income, expressed as a percentage
Y/MORatio of income (estimated, end of year) to money
mAverage propensity to import
m’Marginal propensity to import
νAverage income velocity
k1ν
M˜Constant in the import equation
MAAutonomous imports
VThe effect of velocity changes on money
M*The result of applying the import coefficients to the Q’s (Computed Imports)
Y*The result of applying the income coefficients to the Q’s (Computed Income)
MA effect (on income, imports)
The result of applying the (income, import) coefficients to the MA series (with signs reversed)
V effect (on income, imports)
The result of applying the (income, import) coefficients to the V series

2. Application to a sample country

To illustrate in detail the method developed here, full particulars of its application to one country are provided. Norway was selected for this purpose because it combines many of the problems mentioned and has satisfactory data that show important fluctuations in imports, income, and their determinants.

Table 5 gives the derivation of the four balance of payments categories from the original data. Table 6 indicates the manner in which the other time series have been compiled. Since Chart 1 showed a notable divergence between the average and the marginal propensity to import (0.44 as against 0.50), the latter has been used as the basis for the coefficients. These coefficients have been derived from Tables 3 and 4, using m=0.50 and interpolating between v =3 and v =4.

Table 5.Norway: Balance of Payments Data(In millions of kroner)
19481949195019511952195319541955195619571958
Import Payments (M)
1.1 Merchandise, nonmonetary gold3,5213,9824,61855785,9596,2427,0317,4968,2828,7299,038
1.2 Service payments1,6751,9112,0012,5912,7852,6202,6793,1273,3953,9473,695
1.3 Private donations3430343944424545546263
1.4 Drawings on project loans10000000073870
1.5 Reparations1502100000000
1.6M(1.1+1.2+1.3–1.4–1.5)5,2155,9236,6328,5088,7888,9049,75510,66811,72412,70012,726
Export Receipts (X)
1.7 Merchandise, nonmonetary gold2,1862,1912,9504,6184,2303,8064,3164,7095,7115,9355,370
1.8 Private donations62505669658181105102108128
1.9 Investment income, net–63–59–62–78–64–73–97–134–179–187–222
1.10 Other service receipts2,2502,5062,8164,0944,4714,1174,2165,0626,0477,0216,303
1.11X(1.7+1.8+1.9+1.10)4,4354,6885,7608,7038,7027,9318,5169,74211,68112,87711,579
Change in Reserves (ΔR)
1.12 Short-term assets+47–73+147+276–33–37–36+214+308+246+490
1.13 Gold–100–1–10–1+1+12–52+6+35–38–14
1.14 Short-term liabilities–55–184+303+35+226–366–266–23+208+43–188
1.15 ΔR(1.12+1.13+1.14)–108–258+440+310+194–391–354+197+551+251+288
Capital Movements (C)
1.16C(1.6–1.11+1.15)6729771,3121152785828851,123594741,435
Source: Exports, imports, and reserves are from International Monetary Fund, Balance of Payments Yearbooks.

Includes only that part of foreign loans obtained which are considered special project loans.

Source: Exports, imports, and reserves are from International Monetary Fund, Balance of Payments Yearbooks.

Includes only that part of foreign loans obtained which are considered special project loans.

Table 6.Norway: Income and Monetary Data1
19481949195019511952195319541955195619571958
2.1Y, average for year13,87014,79014,88018,48020,38020,58022,25023,62026,61028,21027,810
2.2Y, estimate for year end 214,30014,83516,68019,43020,48021,41522,93525,11527,41028,010….
2.3M ÷Y (1.6÷2.1)37.640.044.646.043.143.343.845.244.045.045.8
2.4m (average of 2.3)Average for 1949–57: m=0.44
2.5MO4,98834,99534,8235,6046,0016,2636,5066,6886,8806,8647,050
2.6ΔMO261–33–132781397262243182192–16186
2.7Y÷MO (2.2÷2.5)2.872.993.463.473.413.423.533.763.984.08….
2.8v (average of 2.7)Average for 1949–57: v=3.57; k=0.28
2.9ΔY (from 2.2)9705051,8452,7501,0509351,5202,1802,295600….
2.10kΔY272141517770294262426610643168….
2.11V (kΔY-ΔMO)11174649–18–1030183428451184….
2.12Marginal import equationM =0.50F–1,200 (see Chart 1)
2.13M computed on basis of 2.125,7356,1956,2408,0408,9909,0909,92510,61012,10512,90512,705
2.14Minus MA (2.13–1.6)520272–392–468202186170–58381205–21
2.15ΔD (2.6–1.15)369225–572471203653597–15–359–267–102
2.16Q (1.11+1.16+2.15) (also equals 1.6+2.6)5,4765,8906,5009,2899,1839,1669,99810,85011,91612,68412.912

For description of symbols, see text. Data for MO and for Y (gross national product) are from International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics. Except for ratios, figures are in millions of kroner.

See pp. 364–65 for description of method of estimate.

MO for 1948 and 1949, and related figures, may not be exactly comparable with figures for subsequent years.

For description of symbols, see text. Data for MO and for Y (gross national product) are from International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics. Except for ratios, figures are in millions of kroner.

See pp. 364–65 for description of method of estimate.

MO for 1948 and 1949, and related figures, may not be exactly comparable with figures for subsequent years.

Chart 1.Norway: Marginal and Average Import Relationships1

1 For description of symbols, see text.

In Table 7, imports are first computed on the basis of Q only. This leaves a residual, shown on line 3.4. Then the MA effect and the V effect are computed (lines 3.6 and 3.8) and a “computed residual” is built up (line 3.10) from the sum of them plus MA (line 3.9). This accounts for most of the original residual, but not all; there remains a “residual error” (line 3.11) which, as indicated above, must be attributable mainly to the approximations involved in the time units selected.

Table 7.Norway: Computed Imports1(In millions of kroner)
19481949195019511952195319541955195619571958
Marginal Import-Income Ratio: 0.50; Velocity: 3.57
3.1Q (2.16)5,4765,8906,5009,2899,1839,1669,99810,85011,91612,68412,912
0.57Q(0)3,3573,7055,2955,2345,2255,6996,1846,7927,2307,350
0.33Q(–I)1,8071,9442,1453,0653,0303,0253,29935813,9324,186
0.08Q(–II)4002438471520743735733800868953
0.02Q(–III)9021002110118130186184183200217
3.2M*, computed imports5,65426,18728,0218,9379,1289,64510,40011,35612,23012,706
3.3M (1.6)5,9236,6328,5088,7888,9049,75510,66811,72412,70012,726
3.4Residual (3.3–3.2)269445487–149–22411026836847020
3.5Minus MA520272–392–468202186170–58881206–21
057[–MA (0)]155–223–26711510697–33217117–12
0.33[–MA (–I)]17290–129–154676156–1912668
0.08[–MA (–II)]4222–31–37161514–530
0.02[–MA (–III)]105–8–16443–1
3.6MA effect on imports3272–912–364–651281654221624185
3.7V (2.11)11174649–18–1030183428451184….
0.57V(0)99370–10–590104244257105….
0.33V(–I)457214–6–3406014114961
0.08V(–II)11452–1–80153436
0.02V(–III)03130–2049
3.8V effect on imports10324282218–10–22963024132921062
3.9MA–272392468–202–186–17058–381–20521
3.10Computed residual (3.6+3.8+3.9)15827292322–283–S2904022483282122
3.11Residual error (3.4–3.10)1112–2842165134–14220–134120142–1922

For description of symbols, see text.

Incomplete data.

For description of symbols, see text.

Incomplete data.

Chart 2 shows Q and M together at the top, then the three components of Q, and also ΔR. Chart 3 shows the result of the calculations: M (line 3.3) compared with computed imports M* (line 3.2), and the three components of the computed residual.

Chart 2.Norway: M (Imports), Q and Its Components (X, C, and ΔD), and ΔR1

1 For description of symbols, see text.

Chart 3.Norway: Actual Imports (M), Computed Imports (M*), and Components of The Residual1

1 For description of symbols, see text.

Table 8 does with respect to income what Table 7 does with respect to imports. The constant added after the Q terms equals --1,2000.50=2,400, as derived from equation (8’). Because of the adjustment for level explained at the top of page 362 and computed in line 4.13, the figure in line 4.2 is an interim figure, the final figure for income being found in line 4.5.

Table 8.Norway: Computed Income1(In millions of kroner)
19481949195019511952195319541955195619571958
Marginal Import-Income Ratio: 0.50; Velocity: 3.57; M= –1,200
4.1Q (2.16)5,4765,8906,5009,2899,1839,1999,99810,85011,91612,68412,912
1.14Q(0)7,41010,58910,46810,44911,39812,36913,58414,46014,720
0.65Q(–I)3,8284,2256,0385,9695,9596,4997,0527,7458,245
0.16Q(–II)8769421,0401,4861,4691,4671,6001,7361,907
0.05O(–III)2502274295325464459458500542
M˜m22,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,4002,400
4.2Computed income, interim figure14.764218,43020,24120,62921,69023,19425,09426,84127,814
4.3Y (2.1)14,88018,48020,38020,58022,25023,62026,61028,21027,810
4.4Residual, interim figure (4.3–4.2)116250139–495604261,5161,369–4
4.5Y* computed income (4.2+4.13)14,871218,53720,34820,73621,79723,30125,20126,94827,921
4.6Residual (4.3–4.5)92–5732–1564533191,4091,262–111
4.7Minus MA (2.14)520272–392–468202186170–58381205–21
1.14[–MA (0)]–447–534230212194–66434234–24
0.65[–MA (–I)]177–255–304131121111–38248133
0.16[MA (–II)]8344–63–75323027–961
0.05[MA (–III)]2614–20–231098–3
4.8MA effect on income–1872–719–12324832485432481167
4.9V (2.11)11174649–18–1030183428451184….
1.14V (–0)740–21–1170209488514210….
0.65V (–I)113422–12–670119278293120
0.16V (–II)228104–3–160296872
0.05V (–III)1932–1–50921
4.10V effect on income8552430–16–381926028215802132
4.11Computed residual (4.8+4.10)6682–289–1512075156871,2531,0613802
4.12(4.4–4.11)–5522339290–25645–261263308–3842
4.13Average of 4.12Average for 1951–57: 107
4.14Residual error (4.6–4.11)–6592232183–363–62–368156201–4912

For description of symbols, see text.

Incomplete data.

For description of symbols, see text.

Incomplete data.

Computed income, Y*, which is given in line 4.5 of the table, is shown in Chart 4, together with actual income, Y (line 4.3 in the table), and the two components of the discrepancy, the MA effect (line 4.8) and the V effect (line 4.10).

Chart 4.Norway: Actual Income (Y), Computed Income (Y*), and Components of the Residual1

1 For description of symbols, see text.

Australia1
1949195019511952195319541955195619571958
X5407179187779227728198821,043801
C130124125179–2765135156113181
M5817641,1849687519421,0919859901,055
ΔR11977–91–12144–105–13753166–73
MO1,0001,2541,4221,3741,5381,5821,6201,6031,6771,633
ΔMO156254168–481644438–1774–44
ΔD37177259–3620149175–70–9229
Y22,20032,6703,5753,8094,1674,4874,8425,2355,6675,770
Q7071,0181,3029209159861,1299681,0641,011
M/Y422.624.530.724.317.420.221.718.117.317.8
Y/MO42.672.852.683.032.923.063.233.543.443.74
–MA4–32–99–348–12017051–18176228210
V4–86–105118122–5460741416377
(1) M = 0.213Y (1950–58)(2) Y = 3.2MO (1950–57)
Q(0)Q(–I)Q(–II)Q(–III)Q(–IV)
Income coefficients0.320.310.170.100.10
Import coefficients1.511.410.800.440.53

For description of symbols, see text. The table is based on data from International Monetary Fund, Balance of Payments Yearbooks and International Financial Statistics. Except for ratios, figures are in millions of Australian pounds.

For year ended June 80.

Y for 1949, and related figures, may not be exactly comparable with figures for subsequent years.

For calculating M/Y and MA, average income for the calendar year is estimated from the June 30 data by interpolation. For calculating Y/MO and V, income for the end of a calendar year is assumed to be the same as the annual rate for the year ended the following June.

For description of symbols, see text. The table is based on data from International Monetary Fund, Balance of Payments Yearbooks and International Financial Statistics. Except for ratios, figures are in millions of Australian pounds.

For year ended June 80.

Y for 1949, and related figures, may not be exactly comparable with figures for subsequent years.

For calculating M/Y and MA, average income for the calendar year is estimated from the June 30 data by interpolation. For calculating Y/MO and V, income for the end of a calendar year is assumed to be the same as the annual rate for the year ended the following June.

Austria1
195019511952195319541955195619571958
X7,77611,82912,95316,59120,51722,63028,17632,92632,139
C2,5874,4273,6376899251,5093741,3452,664
M10,09015,04615,07414,59918,71225,52227,28081,79330,521
Mo00000192673869273
ΔR2737101,5162,6812,730–1,3831,3212,4784,282
MO213,94016,72018,26022,34028,26028,61029,71032,10035,560
ΔMO1,6602,7801,5404,0806,9203501,1002,3903,460
ΔD1,3772,070241,3993,1901,733–220–88–822
Y249,60066,40076,80077,60087,500100,400 ]110,600121,800128,900
Q11,74017,82616,61418,67924,63225,87228,33034,18333,981
M/Y20.822.719.618.821.425.424.626.123.7
Y/MO4.164.284.233.703.323.693.913.90….
–MA–202–4542,4308,1291,788–1,410–262–1,6521,571
V1,716702–106–2,710–3,0022,6071,639–48….
(1) M = 0.28Y — 4,000(2) Y = 3.90MO (1950–56)
Q(0)Q(–I)Q(–II)Q(–III)Q(–IV)Q(–V)
Import coefficients0.430.350.130.050.020.02
Income coefficients1.551.250.460.180.070.06

For description of symbols, see text. The table is based on data from International Monetary Fund, Balance of Payments Yearbooks and International Financial Statistics (IFS). Except for ratios, figures are in millions of schillings. Balance of payments data, which were reported to the Fund in U.S. dollars, have been converted as follows: X at average export rates, M at average import rates, and AB at official rates, as published in IFS.

MO and Y prior to 1950, and related figures, may not be exactly comparable with figures for subsequent years.

For description of symbols, see text. The table is based on data from International Monetary Fund, Balance of Payments Yearbooks and International Financial Statistics (IFS). Except for ratios, figures are in millions of schillings. Balance of payments data, which were reported to the Fund in U.S. dollars, have been converted as follows: X at average export rates, M at average import rates, and AB at official rates, as published in IFS.

MO and Y prior to 1950, and related figures, may not be exactly comparable with figures for subsequent years.

AUSTRALIA

AUSTRIA

Belgium-Luxembourg1
19481949195019511952195319541955195619571958
X87.392.399.1155.7145.4137.0143.5172.4200.7208.6201.0
C1.17.0–11.9– 3.0–7.4–3.6–3.9–10.2–16.5–18.9–12.4
M90.689.1108.2140.8133.0132.9142.0157.8181.9193.0178.6
Mo2.40.8003.00.70.30.40.40.20.2
ΔR–2.210.2–21.011.95.00.5–2.44.42.3–3.310.0
MO 2154.0 3159.8 3159.5173.0180.0185.3188.5198.1204.7204.0215.4
ΔMO7.95.8–0.913.57.05.33.29.66.6–0.711.4
ΔD10.1–4.420.11.62.04.85.65.24.3–4.01.4
Y351.2354.8370.7432.5443.9446.7467.9495.5533.6559.3….
Q98.594.9107.3154.3140.0138.2145.2167.4188.5185.7190.0
M/Y25.825.129.232.630.029.730.431.834.334.5….
Y/MO2.282.222.522.532.472.472.562.602.672.71 4….
MA03.3–7.8–9.64.06.57.04.9–0.11.6….
V–7.3–1.916.10.9–4.2–0.65.63.35.93.44….
(1) M = 0.50 Y — 85 (2) Y = 2.5 MO (1950–56)
Q(O)Q(–I)Q(–II)Q(–III)Q(–IV)
Import coefficients0.480.320.120.050.03
Income coefficients0.980.640.240.090.05

For description of symbols, see text. The table is based on data from International Monetary Fund, Balance of Payments Yearbooks and International Financial Statistics. Except for ratios, figures are in billions of francs.

Money for Belgium plus Sight Deposits and Post Office Checking Deposits for Luxembourg, as published in International Financial Statistics.

MO for 1948 and 1949, and related figures, may not be exactly comparable with figures for subsequent years.

Based on estimated ONP for 1958 of 547.3 billion francs.

For description of symbols, see text. The table is based on data from International Monetary Fund, Balance of Payments Yearbooks and International Financial Statistics. Except for ratios, figures are in billions of francs.

Money for Belgium plus Sight Deposits and Post Office Checking Deposits for Luxembourg, as published in International Financial Statistics.

MO for 1948 and 1949, and related figures, may not be exactly comparable with figures for subsequent years.

Based on estimated ONP for 1958 of 547.3 billion francs.

Burma1
195019511952195319541955195619571958
X7589941,2441,2551,1791,1761,1441,2241,017
C22–2–20–4–129–82777874
M7318249701,1991,3911,1731,115 21,590 2939 2
Mo00000001422
ΔR4916825452–341–7974–288152
MO5526065997538421,1161,3431,1061,311
ΔMO–4854–715489274227–237205
ΔD–97–114–2611024303531535153
Y 33,1243,6824,0794,6224,6014,8075,1345,401….
Q6838789631,3531,4801,4471,3741,3531,144
M/Y 422.421.823.026.029.924.121.4….….
Y/MO 46.416.987.646.125.654.453.91….….
MA47310668–63–24623165….….
V 4982778–117–68–227–175….….
(1) M = 0.246Y (1950–55) (2) Y = 5.88MO (1950–56)
Q(O)Q(–I)Q(–II)Q(–III)Q(–IV)
Import coefficients0.500.360.100.020.01
Income coefficients2.011.450.390.110.10

For description of symbols, see text. The table is based on data from International Monetary Fund, Balance of Payments Yearbooks and International Financial Statistics. Except for ratios, figures are in millions of kyats.

Deduction has been made on account of reparations (32 million kyats for 1956; 181 million kyats for 1957; 133 million kyats for 1958).

For year ended September 30.

For calculating M/Y, Y/MO, MA, and V, income for the calendar year is estimated from the data for the year ended September 30.

For description of symbols, see text. The table is based on data from International Monetary Fund, Balance of Payments Yearbooks and International Financial Statistics. Except for ratios, figures are in millions of kyats.

Deduction has been made on account of reparations (32 million kyats for 1956; 181 million kyats for 1957; 133 million kyats for 1958).

For year ended September 30.

For calculating M/Y, Y/MO, MA, and V, income for the calendar year is estimated from the data for the year ended September 30.

BELGIUM - LUXEMBOURG

BURMA

Canada1
19481949195019511952195319541955195619571958
X3,8683,7303,7924,7305,2506,1004,8266,3615,8775,8575,781
C–21281974414015105271,3681,3111,022
M3,3813,5474,1215,2385,0705,5185,2476,0357,1657,2086,818
ΔR472195490236181–1789–14780–40–15
MO3,9103,9604,3304,3754,6584,5584,9205,2485,1866,3926,084
ΔMO3435037045283–100362328–62206692
ΔD–129–145–120–191102–83273475–142246707
Y15,61316,46218,20321,45023,01124,44924,14826,95429,98631,40632,184
Q3,7273,5974,4915,2835,3535,4185,6096,3637,1037,4147,510
M/Y21.721.522.624.422.022.621.722.423.922.921.2
Y/MO3.893.984.354.704.815.024.895.156.035.865.29
MA129157–25–412107–1718630–418–133423
V–6022215546032219–9928352925….
(1) M = 0.225 Y (1948–56) (2) Y = 4.76 MO (1948–56)
Q(O)Q(–I)Q(–II)Q(–III)Q(–IV)
Import coefficients0.420.350.140.060.03
Income coefficients1.871.600.620.250.10

For description of symbols, see text. With the exception of Y, the table is based on data from International Monetary Fund, Balance of Payments Yearbooks and International Financial Statistics. Y is taken from Dominion Bureau of Statistics, National Accounts, Income and Expenditure, which gives quarterly income data; this permitted year-end income to be estimated from last and first quarters instead of from annual rates. A check revealed that there was no substantial difference in the results obtained from the two methods. Except for ratios, figures are in millions of Canadian dollars.

For description of symbols, see text. With the exception of Y, the table is based on data from International Monetary Fund, Balance of Payments Yearbooks and International Financial Statistics. Y is taken from Dominion Bureau of Statistics, National Accounts, Income and Expenditure, which gives quarterly income data; this permitted year-end income to be estimated from last and first quarters instead of from annual rates. A check revealed that there was no substantial difference in the results obtained from the two methods. Except for ratios, figures are in millions of Canadian dollars.

Ceylon1
19481949195019511952195319541965195619571958
X1,0891,1771,5201,8571,5301,6721,8762,0371,9191,8321,876
C55–4427282–3848–51–14–43–14
M1,0721,1891,3821,7671,9761,8441,5901,7221,8562,0082,010
Mo0000005992313
ΔR 272–5616592–364–21033426449–217–148
MO607 36499111,0088968279571,0731,1271,0401,077
ΔMO454226295–110–6913011654–8737
ΔD–2798973254141–204–1485130185
Y2,7683,0484,0474,7344,4884,6914,9675,5805,3115,610….
Q1,1171,2311,6441,8621,8661,7751,7201,8381,9101,9192,047
M/Y38.739.034.237.344.039.332.030.934.935.8….
Y/MO4.795.474.824.586.125.846.515.084.84….….
MA–62–7695–39–338–1322233158342….
V….82–98–52108116–44–83–51….….
(1) M = 0.364Y (1949–57) (2) Y = 5.16.M0 (1949–56)
Q(0)Q(–I)Q(–II)Q(–III)
Import coefficients0.570.340.070.02
Income coefficients1.580.940.190.04

For description of symbols, see text. The table is based on data from International Monetary Fund,Balance of Payments Yearbooks and International Financial Statistics. Except for ratios, figures are in millions of rupees.

Includes changes in government and central bank holdings of long-term securities.

MO for 1948, and related figures, may not be exactly comparable with figures for subsequent years.

For description of symbols, see text. The table is based on data from International Monetary Fund,Balance of Payments Yearbooks and International Financial Statistics. Except for ratios, figures are in millions of rupees.

Includes changes in government and central bank holdings of long-term securities.

MO for 1948, and related figures, may not be exactly comparable with figures for subsequent years.

CANADA

CEYLON

Colombia1
1949195019511952195319541955195619571958
X6847589841,1571,5241,6841,5461,9592,3573,280
C3942229134169304232364197156
M6388641,1501,1911,6321,9282,1292,4702,4183,469
Mo11173042353537727254
ΔR85–64631006160–351–147136–33
MO9149621,1201,3181,5501,8431,9112,3762,6978,263
ΔMO1654815819823229368465321566
ΔD801129598171233419612185599
Y5,400 26,5307,3708,2309,28010,55011,49012,70014,100….
Q8039121,3081,3891,8642,2212,1972,9352,7394,035
M/Y11.813.215.614.517.718.318.519.417.2….
Y/MO6.537.226.966.626.386.986.335.64….….
MA5073–29120–101–109–101–176184
V–8105–26–54–52–11899–263….….
(1) M = 0.22Y — 500 (2) Y = 6.45MO (1950–57)
Q(0)Q(–I)Q(–II)Q(–III)Q(–IV)
Import coefficients0.490.370.100.030.01
Income coefficients2.231.680.480.140.02

For description of symbols, see text. The table is based on data from International Monetary Fund, Balance of Payment) Yearbooks and International Financial Statistics. Except for ratios, figures are in millions of pesos. Balance of payments data were reported to the Fund in U.S. dollars. X and M have been converted at the following rates (in pesos per dollar, 1949 through 1958, respectively)—X: 1.95, 1.95, 2.13, 2.29, 2.37, 2.40, 2.58, 2.77, 3.60, 5.04; M: 1.95, 2.17, 2.46, 2.60, 2.65, 2.64, 2.87, 3.49, 4.36, 7.03. Afi has been converted at 2.50 pesos per dollar for the entire period.

Y for 1949, and related figures, may not be exactly comparable with figures for subsequent years.

For description of symbols, see text. The table is based on data from International Monetary Fund, Balance of Payment) Yearbooks and International Financial Statistics. Except for ratios, figures are in millions of pesos. Balance of payments data were reported to the Fund in U.S. dollars. X and M have been converted at the following rates (in pesos per dollar, 1949 through 1958, respectively)—X: 1.95, 1.95, 2.13, 2.29, 2.37, 2.40, 2.58, 2.77, 3.60, 5.04; M: 1.95, 2.17, 2.46, 2.60, 2.65, 2.64, 2.87, 3.49, 4.36, 7.03. Afi has been converted at 2.50 pesos per dollar for the entire period.

Y for 1949, and related figures, may not be exactly comparable with figures for subsequent years.

Costa Rica1
1949195019511952195319541955195619571958
X315.3302.6335.2382.4449.8486.8489.6454.3524.4672.7
C21.376.4162.1121.072.238.098.497.2156.1144.0
M334.6389.2457.4458.2603.4538.8565.4610.7666.5653.5
Mo00000023.65.029.127.9
ΔR2.0–10.239.945.218.6–14.022.6–59.214.063.2
MO194.8204.5224.4264.8290.5325.8339.6342.1870.2398.5
ΔMO20.39.719.940.425.734.814.32.528.128.3
ΔD18.319.9–20.0–4.87.148.8–8.361.714.1–34.9
Y 2….1,1201,2101,3001,4301,5401,7001,7701,885….
Q354.9398.9477.3498.6529.1573.6579.7613.2694.6681.8
M/Y….34.837.835.235.235.033.334.535.4….
Y/MO….6.705.595.155.114.985.115.36….….
−MA….3.9–32.7–1.9–1.51.731.310.6–4.9….
V….….–2.8–19.5–2.9–9.27.515.1….….
(1) M = 0.35Y (1950–57) (2) Y = 5.26 MO (1950–56)
Q(0)Q(–I)Q(–II)Q(–III)Q(–IV)
Import coefficients0.560.340.070.020.01
Income coefficients1.610.980.200.040.03

For description of symbols, see text. The table is based on data from International Monetary Fund, Balance of Payments Yearbooks and International Financial Statistics (IFS). Except for ratios, figures are in millions of colones. Balance of payments data, which were reported to the Fund in U.S. dollars, have been converted at the rates shown in IFS for the respective categories.

National income.

For description of symbols, see text. The table is based on data from International Monetary Fund, Balance of Payments Yearbooks and International Financial Statistics (IFS). Except for ratios, figures are in millions of colones. Balance of payments data, which were reported to the Fund in U.S. dollars, have been converted at the rates shown in IFS for the respective categories.

National income.

COLOMBIA

COSTA RICA

Cuba1
19501951195219531954195519661957
X647781673681576623721872
C–164744–48–33725084
M660794795641655732280121,002*
Mo012462200
ΔR–2934–78–8–112–37–30–46
MO8088398608278449049901,039
ΔMO2153121–3317608649
ΔD244–399–251299711695
Y 41,6111,9442,0301,7531,7931,8662,0342,320
Q8758258166086727928871,051
M/Y41.040.839.236.636.639.339.443.2
Y/MO2.22.42.22.12.22.22.22.2
MA–32–36–34344–4–8–97
V–11664–64–219617–25
(1) M = 0.39Y (1950–56) (2) Y = 2.2MO (1950–55)
Q(O)Q(–I)Q(–II)Q(–III)Q(–IV)Q(–V)Q(–VI)
Import coefficients0.400.310.140.070.040.020.02
Income coefficients1.020.790.360.180.100.060.05

For description of symbols, see text. The table is based on data from International Monetary Fund, Balance of Payments Yearbooks and International Financial Statistics. Except for ratios, figures are in millions of pesos.

Includes the amount shown in the Balance of Payments Yearbooks as errors and omissions (58 million pesos for 1965; 88 million pesos for 1956; 57 million pesos for 1957).

MO for 1950, and related figures, may not be exactly comparable with figures for subsequent years.

National income.

For description of symbols, see text. The table is based on data from International Monetary Fund, Balance of Payments Yearbooks and International Financial Statistics. Except for ratios, figures are in millions of pesos.

Includes the amount shown in the Balance of Payments Yearbooks as errors and omissions (58 million pesos for 1965; 88 million pesos for 1956; 57 million pesos for 1957).

MO for 1950, and related figures, may not be exactly comparable with figures for subsequent years.

National income.

Denmark1
1949195019511952195319541955195619571958
X4,4315,7527,5157,6907,9638,5009,40814,20111,08811,565
C4271,0174011811159–169143200–67
M4,7036,5817,7887,5377,8659,0239,24114,81714,79014,690
ΔR155188128334149–464–227493808
MO6,8046,5986,9027,2097,5427,3267,4657,6887,9189,059
ΔMO–361–206304307333–2161391682851,141
ΔD–506–394176–27224248141141–208333
Y20,00021,46023,18024.4S026,42027,67028,64030,76082,850….
Q4,3526,8768,0927,8448,1988,8079,38014,48511,07511,831
M/Y23.530.733.630.829.832.632.829.780.4….
Y/MO3.053.383.458.533.593.843.984.174.21 2….
MA397–766–1,098–192445–88179163785….
V699635146ISO96516278400121 2….
(1) M = 0.50Y - 4,900 (2) Y = 3.71MO (1950–56)
Q(0)Q(–I)Q(–II)Q(–III)Q(–IV)
Import coefficients0.580.820.070.020.01
Income coefficients1.150.650.150.030.02

For description of symbols, see text. The table is based on data from International Monetary Fund, Balance of Payments Yearbooks and International Financial Statistics. Except for ratios, figures are in millions of kroner.

Based on estimated GKP for 1958 of 33,770 million kroner.

For description of symbols, see text. The table is based on data from International Monetary Fund, Balance of Payments Yearbooks and International Financial Statistics. Except for ratios, figures are in millions of kroner.

Based on estimated GKP for 1958 of 33,770 million kroner.

CUBA

DENMARK

Dominican Republic1
1949195019511952195319541955195619571958
X66.778.5105.1153.8152.7128.4158.7135.3170.5152.8
C–5.9–14.65.74.6–4.5–5.01.72.7–15.49.5
M60.759.398.9159.3109.9107.1129.6141.8160.2164.5
ΔR0.14.615.9–0.9–1.516.3–9.2–3.84.9–2.2
MO40.944.456.665.363.372.382.387.091.7155.2
ΔMO8.43.512.28.7–2.09.010.04.74.723.5
ΔD8.3–1.10.29.6–0.5–7.319.28.5–0.225.7
Y….349.0372.0414.0435.0471.0522.0574.0645.0….
Q69.162.8151.0128.0107.9156.1139.6146.5164.9188.0
M/Y….17.026.628.825.322.724.824.723.3….
Y/MO….8.186.956.517.166.866.667.01….….
MA….25.2–8.9–19.1–4.66.9–3.3–2.9’5.9….
V….….–7.7–4.26.0–2.9–2.64.1….….
(1) M = 0.24Y (1950–57) (2) Y- 7.0MO (1950–56)
Q(0)Q(–I)Q(–II)Q(–III)
Import cofficients0.540.360.080.02
Income coefficients2.231.500.330.07

For description oi symbols, see text. The table is based on data bom International Monetary Fund, Balance of Payments Yearbooks and International Financial Statistics. Except for ratios, figures are in millions of pesos.

For description oi symbols, see text. The table is based on data bom International Monetary Fund, Balance of Payments Yearbooks and International Financial Statistics. Except for ratios, figures are in millions of pesos.

Ecuador1
195019511952195319541965195619571958
X1,1661,0161,4561,4501,9071,7101,6321,9291,941
C16–94–83–156116–46144272–71
M873 21,0821,1841,3922,0471,8301,7682,0721,916
Mo02245155484675458
ΔR308 2–110189–98–24–1668169–42
MO9138451,0521,0881,2731,1981,3581,4181,400
ΔMO204–6820736185–8016560–18
ΔD–104421813420986157–6924
Y7,0687,6148,5489,06310,17410,74110,89711,651….
Q1,0779641,3911,4282,2321,7501,9832,1321,894
M/Y16.413.613.815.420.417.016.217.8….
Y/MO8.049.568.378.848.219.078.30….….
MA–54–6049–14–3581716330….
V111163–16457–89162–113….….
(1) M = 0.287–1,160 (2) Y = –8.7MO (1951–56)
Q(0)Q(–I)Q(–II)
Import coefficients0.640.320.04
Income coefficients2.271.150.15

For description of symbols, see text. The table is based on data from International Monetary Fund, Balance of Payments Yearbooks and International Financial Statistics. Except for ratios, figures are in millions of sucres. Balance of payments data, which were reported to the Fund in U.S. dollars, have been converted at official rates.

M and ΔR for 1950, and related figures, may not be exactly comparable with figures for subsequent years.

For description of symbols, see text. The table is based on data from International Monetary Fund, Balance of Payments Yearbooks and International Financial Statistics. Except for ratios, figures are in millions of sucres. Balance of payments data, which were reported to the Fund in U.S. dollars, have been converted at official rates.

M and ΔR for 1950, and related figures, may not be exactly comparable with figures for subsequent years.

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

ECUADOR

Egypt1
195019511952195319541955195619571958
X253274202198204218210234248
C–7–31–16908289–7
M263290255206202254258268268
ΔR–17–48–7012–29–21–24–27
MO385 2385 2382368357368422422 3397
ΔMO170–3–14–11115424 2–24
ΔD304867–15–IS4074483
Y8679449169501,0481,1101,129….….
Q276290252192191265312292244
M/Y30.430.727.921.619.322.922.9….….
Y/MO2.352.412.442.723.023.04….….….
−MA–46–54–2632602324….….
V….9439414….….….
(1) M = 0.25Y (1950–56) (2) Y = 2.66MO (1950–55)
Q(O)Q(–I)Q(–II)Q(–III)Q(–IV)
Import coefficients0.330.300.170.100.10
Income coefficients1.301.190.650.360.50

For description of symbols, see text. The table is based on data from International Monetary Fund, Balance of Payments Yearbooks and International Financial Statistics. Except for ratios, figures are in millions of Egyptian pounds.

MO for 1950 and 1951, and related figures, may not be exactly comparable with figures for subsequent years.

Through 1956, MO includes Egyptian currency in circulation in both Egypt and the Sudan. In 1957, Egyptian currency was withdrawn from the Sudan; the amount withdrawn (23.8 million Egyptian pounds) has been added to ΔMO for 1957.

For description of symbols, see text. The table is based on data from International Monetary Fund, Balance of Payments Yearbooks and International Financial Statistics. Except for ratios, figures are in millions of Egyptian pounds.

MO for 1950 and 1951, and related figures, may not be exactly comparable with figures for subsequent years.

Through 1956, MO includes Egyptian currency in circulation in both Egypt and the Sudan. In 1957, Egyptian currency was withdrawn from the Sudan; the amount withdrawn (23.8 million Egyptian pounds) has been added to ΔMO for 1957.

El Salvador1
1949195019511952195319541955195619571958
X151182220229244274282326341312
C–6–80–28–26–35–20–19–23–4–5
M118187190198218252278304328305
Mo00811112110115
ΔR27515–42–15–192
MO104129185168176193198225225213
ΔMO162516238175270–12
ΔD–1120151812152029–9–15
Y….846….….….….….….….….
Q133172207221222269283331328292
M/Y….17.4….….….….….….….….
Y/MO….6.6….….….….….….….….
(1) M = 0.174 Y (1950) (2) Y = 6.6MO (1950)
Q(0)Q(–I)Q(–II)Q(–III)Q(–IV)
Import coefficients0.420.370.130.050.03
Income coefficients2.462.150.770.280.09

For description of symbols, see text. The table is based on data from International Monetary Fund, Balance of Payments Yearbooks and International Financial Statistics. Except for ratios, figures are in millions of colones.

For description of symbols, see text. The table is based on data from International Monetary Fund, Balance of Payments Yearbooks and International Financial Statistics. Except for ratios, figures are in millions of colones.

EGYPT

EL SALVADOR

Ethiopia1
19511952195319541955195619571958
X128119187185188178220180
C–141314111811–727
M100118197175190181196224
Mo56232177
ΔR21414442116817–17
MO 3109125192195173190212208
ΔMO1016263181722–4
ΔD Y–42–18–1829513
Y….….….….….….….….
Q110134183178208198218220
Q(O)Q(–I)Q(–II)Q(–III)Q(–IV)
Import coefficients 40.420.360.130.050.04
Income coefficients 41.951.650.620.240.09

For description of symbols, see text. The table is based on data from International Monetary Fund, Balance of Payments Yearbooks and International Financial Statistics. Figures are in millions of Ethiopian dollars.

Includes changes in long-term assets.

Includes time and savings deposits.

No income figures are available for Ethiopia. On the basis of the ratio of imports to money (1.1), the two ratios, imports to income and income to imports, have been estimated: m = 0.22; i = 5 (see text, p. 356).

For description of symbols, see text. The table is based on data from International Monetary Fund, Balance of Payments Yearbooks and International Financial Statistics. Figures are in millions of Ethiopian dollars.

Includes changes in long-term assets.

Includes time and savings deposits.

No income figures are available for Ethiopia. On the basis of the ratio of imports to money (1.1), the two ratios, imports to income and income to imports, have been estimated: m = 0.22; i = 5 (see text, p. 356).

Finland1
19481949195019511952195319541955195619571958
X77.991.5105.2224.4192.8154.5182.0214.0215.5256.6286.6
C–8.8–14.5–3.2–13.5–15.3–3.70.1–9.0–6.239.07.9
M73.078.5100.6177.7203.8140.4207.9197.4227.2257.0261.0
Mo00.21.60.52.11.91.22.01.31.31.3
ΔR–3.9–1.51.433.2–26.310.414.27.6–17.938.633.6
MO253.660.267.696.084.187.395.9102.0109.5112.8123.0
ΔMO5.06.67.427.4–10.93.28.66.17.53.310.2
ΔD8.98.16.0–5.815.4–7.2–5.6–1.525.4–35.3–23.3
Y 3305.5321.2413.0612.5610.2613.0679.6767.8865.4898.6….
Q78.085.1108.0205.1192.9143.6176.6203.6234.7260.3271.2
M/Y23.924.424.329.033.422.924.725.726.228.5….
Y/MO5.846.107.596.437.277.407.548.018.05….….
−MA7.56.18.2–20.4–43.021.011.14.90.7–19.1….
V1.70.812.6–13.710.91.62.06.62.5….….
(1) M = 0.263Y (1949–57) (2) Y–7.3MO (1949–56)
Q(O)Q(–I)Q(–II)Q(–III)
Import coefficients0.560.360.070.01
Income coefficients2.181.330.250.04

For description of symbols, see text. The table is based on data from International Monetary Fund, Balance of Payments Yearbooks and International Financial Statistics. Except for ratios, figures are in billions of markkas.

MO prior to 1948, and related figures, may not be exactly comparable with figures for subsequent years.

National income.

For description of symbols, see text. The table is based on data from International Monetary Fund, Balance of Payments Yearbooks and International Financial Statistics. Except for ratios, figures are in billions of markkas.

MO prior to 1948, and related figures, may not be exactly comparable with figures for subsequent years.

National income.

ETHIOPIA

FINLAND

France1
195019511952195319541955195619571958
X21,2351,6701,6721,7241,9092,2102,0672,2952,605
C….1601843110–1654281391
M 21,2441,8911,8321,7051,7681,9662,8772,7632,826
ΔR….–612450151228–256–187210
MO3,1293,6954,1884,6585,2985,9696,5857,1527,611
ΔMO425566493470640671616567459
ΔD….627469420489443872754289
Y9,85012,11014,34014,98015,79021,02018,59020,520….
Q….2,4572,8252,2152,4082,6872,9933,3303,285
M/Y12.615.612.811.411.211.612.813.5….
Y/MO3.513.583.493.303.102.982.97….….
MA5–355–14188234192–20–160….
V153119–63–249–321–244–82….….
(1) M = 0.127 Y (1950–57) (2) Y = 3.28MO (1950–56)
Q(O)Q(–I)Q(–II)Q(–III)O(–IV)Q(–V)Q(–VI)Q(–VII)
Import coefficients0.220.250.160.110.070.050.080.11
Income coefficients1.731.971.260.870.550.390.240.86

For description of symbols, see text. The table is based on data from International Monetary Fund, Balance of Payments Yearbooks and International Financial Statistics (IFS). Except for ratios, figures are in billions of francs. Balance of payments data were reported to the Fund in U.S. dollars; X and M have been converted at average effective rates as shown in IF8, and AR, which is derived from IFS (line 10), has been converted at 350 francs per dollar for 1950–57 and 420 francs per dollar for 1958.

X and M include merchandise transactions with, but not services to or from, overseas territories.

For description of symbols, see text. The table is based on data from International Monetary Fund, Balance of Payments Yearbooks and International Financial Statistics (IFS). Except for ratios, figures are in billions of francs. Balance of payments data were reported to the Fund in U.S. dollars; X and M have been converted at average effective rates as shown in IF8, and AR, which is derived from IFS (line 10), has been converted at 350 francs per dollar for 1950–57 and 420 francs per dollar for 1958.

X and M include merchandise transactions with, but not services to or from, overseas territories.

Federal Republic of Germany1
195019511952195319541955195619571958
X9,30516,29619,74722,06526,10730,81937,43744,45447,971
C2,1621,211222–663–1,380–908–761–370–4,095
M11,77115,48717,87517,98222,27128,06632,20937,04939,282
ΔR–3042,0202,5903,4202,4561,8454,4777,0354,594
MO 217,00019,50021,70023,90026,90029,70031,90035,80040,600
ΔMO2,4002,5002,2002,2008,0002,8002,2003,9004,800
ΔD2,704480–390–1,220544955–2,277–3,225206
Y97,200119,600134,200148,800154,000175,600193,400209,600222,300
Q14,17117,98719,57520,22225,27130,86634,40940,94944,082
M/Y12.112.912.912.514.516.016.717.717.7
Y/MO6.386.516.416.236.136.216.326.035.57 3
−MA–2,457–6851,0042,749959456674–197682
V271442–276–626–472332503–1,602–3,138 3
(1) M = 0.245Y — 14,500 (2) Y = 6.3MO (1950–56)
Q(O)Q(–I)Q(–II)Q(–III)Q(–IV)
Import coefficients0.610.360.090.020.02
Income coefficients2.081.440.360.090.11

For description of symbols, see text. The table is based on data from International Monetary Fund, Balance of Payments Yearbooks and International Financial Statistics. Except for ratios, figures are in millions of deutsche mark.

MO prior to 1950, and related figures, may not be exactly comparable with figures for subsequent years.

Based on year-end income estimated from last quarter 1958 and first quarter 1959.

For description of symbols, see text. The table is based on data from International Monetary Fund, Balance of Payments Yearbooks and International Financial Statistics. Except for ratios, figures are in millions of deutsche mark.

MO prior to 1950, and related figures, may not be exactly comparable with figures for subsequent years.

Based on year-end income estimated from last quarter 1958 and first quarter 1959.

FRANCE

FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY

Guatemala1
2349235023512352235323542355235623572358
X60.281.087.586.993.9102.4103.9126.6124.4118.2
C3.11.18.43.3–0.9–5.121.126.936.720.8
M73.681.093.588.190.7101.3110.9141.7159.3164.0
Mo0000000.76.26.84.1
ΔR–10.31.12.42.12.3–4.014.111.81.8–25.0
MO 255.268.960.463.776.177.686.7103.9114.6104.5
ΔMO2.93.71.53.312.41.59.117.210.7–10.1
ΔD13.22.6–0.91.210.15.5–5.05.48.914.9
Y410.9425.0440.8464.4485.2535.6612.9647.4
Q.76.684.795.091.4103.1102.8120.0158.9170.0153.9
M/Y23.722.020.023.520.920.723.124.6
Y/MO7.107.177.116.246.586.626.07
MA5.3–4.34.56.80.61.6–13.0–23.3
V0.7–0.4–9.13.80.4–8.9
(1) M = 0.21Y (2350–66) (2) Y – 6.700 (2350–56)
Q(O)Q(–I)Q(–II)Q(–III)
Import coefficients0.490.370.110.03
Income coefficients2.321.800.510.13

For description of symbols, see text. The table is based on data from International Monetary Fund, Balance of Payments Yearbooks and International Financial Statistics. Except for ratios, figures are in millions of quetzales.

MO prior to 1948, and related figures, may not be exactly comparable with figures for subsequent years.

For description of symbols, see text. The table is based on data from International Monetary Fund, Balance of Payments Yearbooks and International Financial Statistics. Except for ratios, figures are in millions of quetzales.

MO prior to 1948, and related figures, may not be exactly comparable with figures for subsequent years.

Hondtjbas1
1949195019511952195319541955195619571958
X82.083.2105.7113.1121.8128.3115.8137.1141.0144.5
C10.011.218.124.410.40.52.911.125.91.2
M90.784.3112.1132.8133.1128.3133.0147.9164.7160.7
Mo00000000.53.52.7
ΔR1.310.111.70.7–0.90.5–14.30.32.2–15.0
MO36.838.547.552.559.468.660.667.263.162.6
ΔMO–0.81.79.05.06.99.2–7.96.6–4.2–0.6
ΔD–2.1–8.4–2.74.37.88.76.46.3–6.414.4
Y370.0 2410.4464.9487.8567.6576.3628.0652.6687.8….
Q89.986.0121.1137.8140.0137.5126.1154.5160.5160.1
M/Y24.524.524.127.223.422.321.222.723.9….
Y/MO10.5711.3510.0310.059.628.7810.569.97….….
−MA–5.310.4–4.8–20.2–2.14.711.82.6–6.1….
V4.43.0–5.10.1–2.5–6.211.7–3.3….….
(1) M = 0.23Y (1950–55) (2) Y = 0.10MO (1950–55)
Q(O)Q(–I)Q(–II)
Import coefficients0.620.830.05
Income coefficients2.701.460.19

For description of symbols, see text. The table is based on data from International Monetary Fund, Balance of Payments Yearbooks and International Financial Statistics. Except for ratios, figures are in millions of lempiras.

Y for 1949, and related figures, may not be exactly comparable with figures for subsequent years.

For description of symbols, see text. The table is based on data from International Monetary Fund, Balance of Payments Yearbooks and International Financial Statistics. Except for ratios, figures are in millions of lempiras.

Y for 1949, and related figures, may not be exactly comparable with figures for subsequent years.

GUATEMALA

HONDURAS

India1
19511952195319541955195619571958
X8,8607,8476,6676,6417,9117,7498,5707,193
C25198551484097066511,494
M9,3948,2066,4006,9678,03410,61812,60710,427
Mo482717920151497679
ΔR–709–161322–183286–2,163–3,386–1,740
MO18,01017,13017,09018,32020,47025,79022,75023,500
ΔMO–530–880–401,2302,1501,320960750
ΔD179–719–3621,4131,8643,4834,3462,490
Y 299,70098,200104,80096,10099,800113,100113,600….
Q8,8647,3266,3608,19710,18411,93813,56711,177
M/Y39.68.36.27.18.19.6….….
Y/MO 35.545.736.135.254.885.194.99….
≒MA3–1,454–1622,0171,05235–1,660–3,348….
V 31,3316071,241–2,8131,4771,101–869….
(1) M = 0.10Y (1951–56) (2) Y =5.5MO (1951–55)
Q(0)0(–I)0(–II)0(–III)0(–IV)
Import coefficients0.260.310.180.100.15
Income coefficients2.583.021.781.061.56

For description of symbols, see text. The table is based on data from International Monetary Fund, Balance of Payments Yearbooks andInternational Financial Statistics. Except for ratios, figures are in millions of rupees.

National income for year beginning April 1.

For calculating M/Y and MA, average income for the calendar year is estimated from the April 1 data by interpolation. For calculating Y/MO and V, income for the end of a calendar year is assumed to be the same as the annual rate for the year beginning the previous April.

For description of symbols, see text. The table is based on data from International Monetary Fund, Balance of Payments Yearbooks andInternational Financial Statistics. Except for ratios, figures are in millions of rupees.

National income for year beginning April 1.

For calculating M/Y and MA, average income for the calendar year is estimated from the April 1 data by interpolation. For calculating Y/MO and V, income for the end of a calendar year is assumed to be the same as the annual rate for the year beginning the previous April.

Iraq1
195019511952195319541955195619571958
X42.668.381.1106.7126.5134.0124.5107.0147.2
C6.6–4.63.4–1.1–10.25.017.526.10.4
M41.163.173.583.888.8118.8134.9153.9133.6
Mo2.601.60.40.10001.9
ΔR28.20.611.021.823.420.27.1–24.914.0
MO 355.455.963.261.878.279.192.7103.0121.5
ΔMO0.5–2.78.611.45.913.610.818.5
ΔD….–0.1–13.7–16.8–12.0–14.36.535.24.6
Y182210247292306331349….….
Q….63.670.889.2100.2124.7148.5164.2152.1
M/Y26.627.729.828.729.085.938.6….….
Y/MO3.544.085.084.844.344.30….….….
MA–0.1–8.1012.214.2–3.3–10.4….….
V….6.912.1–1.8–6.9–1.0….….….
(1) M = 0.50Y — 50 (2) Y = 4.4MO (1950–55)
Q(0)Q(–I)O(–II)C(–III)
Import coefficients0.630.810.050.01
Income coefficients1.240.680.100.08

For description of symbols, see text. The table is based on data from International Monetary Fund Balance of Payments Yearbooks and International Financial Statistics. Except for ratios, figures are in millions of dinars.

Includes changes in official long-term assets.

Includes quasi-money.

For description of symbols, see text. The table is based on data from International Monetary Fund Balance of Payments Yearbooks and International Financial Statistics. Except for ratios, figures are in millions of dinars.

Includes changes in official long-term assets.

Includes quasi-money.

INDIA

IRAQ

Ireland1
19481949195019511952195319541955195619571958
X110.1116.6125.0139.4166.0178.5182.1178.2174.7198.0175.7
C25.843.039.334.627.428.413.6–4.05.36.545.3
M139.1132.3160.6206.5183.3194.3192.4216.9192.1194.8205.1
ΔR2–3.227.33.7–32.56.112.63.3–42.7–12.19.715.9
MO 3110.3118.5122.6131.6137.4145.2152.2154.7154.7165.5164.7
ΔMO6.58.24.19.05.87.87.02.5010.8–0.8
ΔD9.7–19.10.441.5–0.3–4.83.745.212.11.1–16.7
Y357.2 3384.5 3391.3412.3468.9514.2517.4536.9642.8567.0….
Q145.6140.5164.7215.5189.1202.1199.4219.4192.1205.6204.3
M/Y38.934.441.050.139.137.837.140.435.434.4….
Y/MO3.363.273.283.353.583.553.463.493.59….….
−MA3.821.5–4.1–41.64.311.414.6–2.125.032.0….
V2.6–3.202.49.2–0.7–3.71.24.4….….
(1) M = 0.40Y (1950–56) (2) Y = 3.4 MO (1950–55)
Q(O)Q(–I)Q(–II)Q(–III)Q(–IV)
Import coefficients0.500.340.110.030.02
Income coefficients1.240.840.270.080.07

For description of symbols, see text. The table is based on data from International Monetary Fund, Balance of Payments Yearbooks and International Financial Statistics. Except for ratios, figures are in millions of pounds.

Includes changes in foreign assets of the Central Bank, the commercial banks, and the Post Office Savings Bank.

MO prior to 1948, Y for 1948 and 1949, and related figures, may not be exactly comparable with figures for subsequent years.

For description of symbols, see text. The table is based on data from International Monetary Fund, Balance of Payments Yearbooks and International Financial Statistics. Except for ratios, figures are in millions of pounds.

Includes changes in foreign assets of the Central Bank, the commercial banks, and the Post Office Savings Bank.

MO prior to 1948, Y for 1948 and 1949, and related figures, may not be exactly comparable with figures for subsequent years.

Italy1
195019511952195319541955195619571968
X1,0381,3581,2601,4821,5721,7942,0842,5352,617
C–611702361354084832357
M1,0111,4451,5771,6661,6321,8342,1232,4652,183
Mo003368103172
ΔR–3483–81–49–204444103491
MO2,5302,9283,4003,7584,0774,5414,9275,2355,754
ΔMO235398472358319464386308519
ΔD26931555340733942034220528
Y8,67010,06110,67311,69212,46913,63914,63415,68816,657
Q1,2861,8432,0492,0281,9512,2982,5092,7632,702
M/Y11.714.414.814.213.113.414.515.613.1
Y/MO3.703.543.293.213.203.113.083.09….
−MA191–50–97–449758–93–279127
V….–92–223–84–22–134–731….
(1) M = 0.139Y (1950–57)(2) Y = 3.28M0 (1950–56)
Q(O)Q(–I)Q(–II)Q(–III)Q(–IV)Q(–V)Q(–VI)Q(–VII)
Import coefficients0.230.260.160.120.090.060.050.03
Income coefficients1.651.871.150.860.650.430.360.22

For description of symbols, see text. The table is based on data from International Monetary Fund, Balance of Payments Yearbooks and International Financial Statistics. Except for ratios, figures are in billions of lire. Balance of payments data, which were reported to the Fund in U.S. dollars, have been converted at 625 lire per dollar.

For description of symbols, see text. The table is based on data from International Monetary Fund, Balance of Payments Yearbooks and International Financial Statistics. Except for ratios, figures are in billions of lire. Balance of payments data, which were reported to the Fund in U.S. dollars, have been converted at 625 lire per dollar.

IRELAND

ITALY

Japan1
1949195019511952195319541955195619571958
X2183917778017858489701,1771,3231,309
C17012571–10127–8–647–110
M3263527157228598638621,1721,5111,103
Mo00000423141127
ΔR6216713369–62–8100–1–14196
MO 26787891,0481,2651,9372,0132,3312,7142,8243,185
ΔMO6011125921717476318383110361
ΔD–2–5612614823684218384251265
Y23,1983,9475,1045,8836,8547,3797,9539,03010,023….
Q3864639749391,0339391,1801,5551,6211,464
M/Y10.28.914.012.312.511.710.813.015.1….
Y/M5.166.465.245.033.673.813.643.33….….
–MA15490–9910199418132–168….
V1171409253376–89–96….….
(1) M = 0.15Y(2) Y = 3.61MO (1953–57)
Q(O)Q(–I)Q(–II)Q(–III)Q(–IV)Q(–V)Q(–VI)
Import coefficients0.270.290.170.110.070.050.04
Income coefficients1.801.931.130.730.470.330.28

For description of symbols, see text. The table is based on data from International Monetary Fund, Balance of Payments Yearbooks and International Financial Statistics. Except for ratios, figures are in billions of yen. Balance of payments data, which were reported to the Fund in U.S. dollars, have been converted at 860 yen per dollar.

MO for 1949–62, Y for 1949–50, and related figures, may not be exactly comparable with figures for subsequent years.

For description of symbols, see text. The table is based on data from International Monetary Fund, Balance of Payments Yearbooks and International Financial Statistics. Except for ratios, figures are in billions of yen. Balance of payments data, which were reported to the Fund in U.S. dollars, have been converted at 860 yen per dollar.

MO for 1949–62, Y for 1949–50, and related figures, may not be exactly comparable with figures for subsequent years.

Mexico1
1949195019511952195319541955195619571958
X4,8806,2967,6287,3687,31810,89115,15216,19015,77015,261
C–621,183601321342–19924023977–198
M4,4896,7888,5517,7938,10810,83213,15215,99417,21516,198
Mo1992211484642494355294095541,206
ΔR8891,641–822–104–448–1402,240219–468–1,135
MO4,5186,2846,9717,2568,0459,01810,77911,98512,77813,724
ΔMO4831,7167872857899731,7611,206793946
ΔD94751,0598891,2371,113–4799871,2612,081
Y 231,70037,50046,80052,00050,20059,18074,76084,00092,000….
Q4,9227,6049,2888,0788,89711,80514,91317,20018,00817,144
M/Y14.015.418.315.016.118.317.619.018.7….
Y/MO7.666.767.097.046.807.437.367.34….….
MA77–26–7891,087385–408621–234265….
V126–659278–47–286746–241….….
(1) M = 0.215Y – 2,300 (2) Y = 7.12M0 (1950–55)
Q(O)Q(I)Q(–II)Q(–III)
Import coefficients0.510.370.090.03
Income coefficients2.371.730.440.11

For description of symbols, see text. The table is based on data from International Monetary Fund. Balance of Payments Yearbooks and International Financial Statistics (IFS). Except for ratios, figures are in millions of pesos. Balance of payments data, which were reported to the Fund in U.S. dollars, have been converted at the conversion rates shown in IFS.

National income.

For description of symbols, see text. The table is based on data from International Monetary Fund. Balance of Payments Yearbooks and International Financial Statistics (IFS). Except for ratios, figures are in millions of pesos. Balance of payments data, which were reported to the Fund in U.S. dollars, have been converted at the conversion rates shown in IFS.

National income.

JAPAN

MEXICO

Netherlands1
1949195019511952195319541955195619571958
X5,1416,7329,01610,64310,55611,53813,17313,84215,01715,580
C1801,243231–499–619–169–1,015–433713339
M5,36427,77229,1128,1708,99611,15912,17714,42815,54213,932
Mo0117201600000
ΔR–432031351,974941210–19–1,0191881,987
MO7,62736,8507,0287,7458,2708,8299,5849,2279,02610,103
ΔMO242–471178717525559755–357–2011,077
ΔD285–67443–1,257–416349774662–389–910
Y17,59019,04021,73022,77024,27027,17029,92032,17035,020
Q5,6067,3019,2908,8879,52111,71812,93214,07115,34115,009
M/Y30.540.841.935.938.141.140.744.844.438.64
Y/MO2.312.983.173.063.113.233.243.643.94….
−MA290–1,248–974592666243875–266702,8104
V2941,154437–298201373701,199845….
(1) M = 0.60Y — 4,900(2) Y = 3.0MO (1948–55)
Q(0)Q(–I)Q(–II)Q(–III)
Import coefficients0.580.320.080.02
Income coefficients0.970.530.130.04

For description of symbols, see text. The table is based on data from International Monetary Fund, Balance of Payments Yearbooks and International Financial Statistics. Except for ratios, figures are in millions of guilders.

Deduction has been made for reparations received (3 million guilders for 1949; 8 million guilders for 1950).

MO for 1949, and related figures, may not be exactly comparable with figures for subsequent years.

Based on estimated GNP for 1958 of 36,070 million guilders.

For description of symbols, see text. The table is based on data from International Monetary Fund, Balance of Payments Yearbooks and International Financial Statistics. Except for ratios, figures are in millions of guilders.

Deduction has been made for reparations received (3 million guilders for 1949; 8 million guilders for 1950).

MO for 1949, and related figures, may not be exactly comparable with figures for subsequent years.

Based on estimated GNP for 1958 of 36,070 million guilders.

New Zealand1
19481949195019511952195319541955195619571958
X130145203265230254231263293295288
C122–4225624842152
M134150186244255228271298288340322
ΔR–3–319–21032–16–279–2418
MO193214242250247289315315314314297
ΔMO1822278–342260–10–17
ΔD2125829–3104227–924–35
Y2422348236987217578419309841,0261,081….
Q152172213252252270297298288340305
M/Y432.132.129.135.234.127.829.930.728.431.8….
Y/MO 42.192.252.892.893.072.912.963.133.263.445….
−MA4–4610–30–252525824–11….
V4–15–216015–1431814185….
(1) M = 0.32Y (1948–57)(2) Y = 3.07MO (1948–57)
Q(0)Q(–I)Q(–II)Q(–III)Q(–IV)
Import coefficients0.390.330.150.070.06
Income coefficients1.321.100.500.230.18

For description of symbols, see text. The table is based on data from International Monetary Fund, Balance of Payments Yearbooks and International Financial Statistics. Except for ratios, figures are in millions of New Zealand pounds.

For year beginning April 1.

Y for 1948 and 1949, and related figures, may not be exactly comparable with figures for subsequent years.

For calculating M/Y and MA, average income for the calendar year is estimated from the April 1 data by interpolation. For calculating Y/MO and V, income for the end of a calendar year is assumed to be the same as the annual rate for the year beginning the previous April.

Based on estimated Y for 1958 of 1,118 million New Zealand pounds.

For description of symbols, see text. The table is based on data from International Monetary Fund, Balance of Payments Yearbooks and International Financial Statistics. Except for ratios, figures are in millions of New Zealand pounds.

For year beginning April 1.

Y for 1948 and 1949, and related figures, may not be exactly comparable with figures for subsequent years.

For calculating M/Y and MA, average income for the calendar year is estimated from the April 1 data by interpolation. For calculating Y/MO and V, income for the end of a calendar year is assumed to be the same as the annual rate for the year beginning the previous April.

Based on estimated Y for 1958 of 1,118 million New Zealand pounds.

NETHERLANDS

NEW ZEALAND

Nicaragua1
1949195019511952195319541955195619571958
X118176288331346410626604603584
C47615664010152347132
M159228287364385531585678638652
Mo0001638128204226
ΔR6–16331–20–7–4036–36
MO114125152182237268275270265257
ΔMO2411273155317–4–5–8
ΔD181221–254511436–4128
Y1,027….….….….….….….….
Q183239314395440562592674633644
M/Y….29.2….….….….….….….….
Y/MO….8.22….….….….….….….….
(1) M = 0.30Y (1950)(2) Y = 8.0Mo (1950)
Q(0)Q(–I)Q(–II)Q(–III)
Import coefficients0.630.320.040.01
Income coefficients2.111.070.130.02

For description of symbols, see text. The table is based on data from International Monetary Fund, Balance of Payments Yearbooks and International Financial Statistics (IFS). Except for ratios, figures are in millions of cordobas. Balance of payments data, which were reported to the Fund in U.S. dollars, have been converted at the following rates (in cordobas per dollar): 1949, 5.04; 1950, 6.20 for commodity imports, 5.00 for net foreign loans, and 7.00 for services; 1951, 7.20 for commodity imports, 5.00 for drawings on loans, and 7.00 for services; 1952–54, 5.00 for government imports and drawings on foreign loans, and 7.00 for other imports (including imports by foreign companies) and service payments; 1955, 7.20 for commodity imports (excluding imports by foreign companies) from January to June and 7.00 for commodity imports from July to December, and 7.00 for imports by foreign companies, drawings on foreign loans, and services for the entire year; 1956–58, 7.00. ΔR is derived from IFS: foreign assets (line 20) minus prepayment for foreign exchange (line 25a) minus the 1955 revaluation profit of 30 million cftrdobae.

For description of symbols, see text. The table is based on data from International Monetary Fund, Balance of Payments Yearbooks and International Financial Statistics (IFS). Except for ratios, figures are in millions of cordobas. Balance of payments data, which were reported to the Fund in U.S. dollars, have been converted at the following rates (in cordobas per dollar): 1949, 5.04; 1950, 6.20 for commodity imports, 5.00 for net foreign loans, and 7.00 for services; 1951, 7.20 for commodity imports, 5.00 for drawings on loans, and 7.00 for services; 1952–54, 5.00 for government imports and drawings on foreign loans, and 7.00 for other imports (including imports by foreign companies) and service payments; 1955, 7.20 for commodity imports (excluding imports by foreign companies) from January to June and 7.00 for commodity imports from July to December, and 7.00 for imports by foreign companies, drawings on foreign loans, and services for the entire year; 1956–58, 7.00. ΔR is derived from IFS: foreign assets (line 20) minus prepayment for foreign exchange (line 25a) minus the 1955 revaluation profit of 30 million cftrdobae.

Norway1
19481949195019511952195319541955195619571958
X4,4364,6885,7608,7088,7027,9318,5169,74211,68112,87711,579
C6729771,3121152785828851,123594741,435
M6,21525,9236,63228,5088,7888,9049,75510,66811,72412,70012,726
Mo0000000078870
ΔR–108–258440310194–391–354197551251288
MO4,98834,95534,8236,6046,0016,2636,5066,6886,8806,8647,050
ΔMO261–33–132781397262243182192–16186
ΔD369225–572471203653697–15–359–267–102
Y13,87014,79014,88018,48020,38020,58022,25023,62026,61028,21027,810
Q5,4766,8906,5009,2899,1839,1669,99810,85011,91612,68412,912
M/Y37.640.044.646.043.143.343.845.244.045.045.8
Y/MO2.872.993.463.473.413.423.533.763.984.08….
MA520272–392–468202186170–58381205–21
V11174649–18–1030183428451184….
(1) M = 0.50Y — 1,200(2) Y = 3.57MO (1949–57)
Q(0)Q(–I)Q(–II)Q(–III)
Import coefficients0.570.330.080.02
Import coefficients1.140.650.160.05

For description of symbols, see text. The table is based on data from International Monetary Fund, Balance of Payments Yearbooks and International Financial Statistics. Except for ratios, figures are in millions of kroner.

Deduction has been made for reparations received (15 million kroner for 1948; 21 million kroner for 1950).

MO for 1948 and 1949, and related figures, may not be exactly comparable with figures for subsequent years.

For description of symbols, see text. The table is based on data from International Monetary Fund, Balance of Payments Yearbooks and International Financial Statistics. Except for ratios, figures are in millions of kroner.

Deduction has been made for reparations received (15 million kroner for 1948; 21 million kroner for 1950).

MO for 1948 and 1949, and related figures, may not be exactly comparable with figures for subsequent years.

NICARAGUA

NORWAY

Peru1
1949195019511952195319541955195619571958
X2,2143,0253,8444,1244,2605,2125,6966,3556,6187,238
07393246216767016226181,8031,9652,598
M2,7923,2064,4114,8445,0035,6966,2567,9059,0789,736
MO00010236131257348435155
ΔR16114354–44–4223858235–495100
MO1.88321,9692,4122,7323,0983,3723,5754,2094,3714,670
ΔMO128315443320366274203634162299
ΔD–3817238936440836145401657199
Y12,07015,15018,71020,97022,65025,08028,54031,630….….
Q2,9203,5214,8545,1645,3695,8706,4598,5399,24010,035
M/Y23.121.223.623.122.122.321.925.0….….
Y/MO7.238.608.227.987.707.958.42….….….
MA–82195–211–1368234150–804….….
V27493–85–78–11388200….….….
(1) M = 0.225Y (1950–54)(2) Y = 8.14MO (1950–54)
Q(0)Q(–I)Q(–II)Q(–III)
Import coefficients0.550.360.070.02
Import coefficients2.451.600.320.07

For description of symbols, see text. The table is based on data from International Monetary Fund, Balance of Payments Yearbooks and International Financial Statistics (IFS). Except for ratios, figures are in millions of soles. Balance of payments data were reported to the Fund in U.S. dollars; X and M have been converted at average effective rates, as shown in IFS, and ΔR has been derived from foreign assets (line 20) in IFS, adjusted for the 1949 devaluation profit (180 million soles).

MO for 1949, and related figures, may not be exactly comparable with figures for subsequent years.

For description of symbols, see text. The table is based on data from International Monetary Fund, Balance of Payments Yearbooks and International Financial Statistics (IFS). Except for ratios, figures are in millions of soles. Balance of payments data were reported to the Fund in U.S. dollars; X and M have been converted at average effective rates, as shown in IFS, and ΔR has been derived from foreign assets (line 20) in IFS, adjusted for the 1949 devaluation profit (180 million soles).

MO for 1949, and related figures, may not be exactly comparable with figures for subsequent years.

Philippines1
195019511952195319541955195619571958
X9401,1231,0251,0821,0241,0181,1121,0971,177
C182–43411884218163102152
M8551,1841,0621,1141,1581,3031,2311,5111,320
Mo382281522209215
ΔR267–1044–14–50–6744–3129
MO1,2291,1601,1981,2241,2261,3361,4991,5981,738
ΔMO218–693826211016399140
ΔD–4935364052177119411131
Y6,6257,3677,5198,0028,1708,6879,53210,03310,464
Q1,0731,1151,1001,1401,1601,4131,3941,6101,460
M/Y12.916.114.113.914.215.012.915.112.6
Y/MO5.696.426.486.616.876.826.536.41….
MA90–13311288–63129–79173
V–12313892451–5–59–27….
(1) M =0.143Y (1950–57)(2) Y =6.48MO (1951–57)
Q (0)Q (–I)Q (–II)Q (–III)Q (–IV)
Import coefficients0.380.360.150.060.05
Income coefficients2.632.651.090.470.25

For description of symbols, see text. The table is based on data from International Monetary Fund, Balance of Payments Yearbooks and International Financial Statistics. Except for ratios, figures are in millions of pesos.

For description of symbols, see text. The table is based on data from International Monetary Fund, Balance of Payments Yearbooks and International Financial Statistics. Except for ratios, figures are in millions of pesos.

PERU

PHILLIPINES

Portugal1
1949195019511952195319541955195619571958
X5,8327,0669,8298,5728,23410,34710,61711,74612,24612,471
C1,4212,1932,9102,5378,9361,9302,6822,8442,9333,261
M9,1708,12010,04510,44810,02210,81512,29413,34315,00414,552
ΔR–1,9171,1392,6946592,1481,4621,0051,2471751,180
MO15,700216,25017,90018,09018,83021,17022,11023,73025,06026,840
ΔMO–7705901,6501907402,3409401,6201,3301,780
ΔD1,147–549–1,044–469–1,408878–653731,155600
Y38,37043,47047,00046,50048,10050,20052,20055,90057,400….
Q8,4008,71011,69510,63810,76213,15513,23414,96316,33416,332
M/Y23.918.721.422.520.821.523.623.926.1
Y/MO2.612.782.612.612.612.422.442.39….….
MA–2,630468–45–648418465–214217–844….
V2,0381,105–1,05626–15–1,536177–601….….
(1) M =0.40Y — 8,800(2) Y =2.55MO (1949–56)
Q (0)Q (–I)Q (–II)Q (–III)Q (–IV)
Import coefficients0.430.320.140.060.05
Income coefficients1.090.800.340.150.12

For description of symbols, see text. The table is based on data from International Monetary Fund, Balance of Payments Yearbooks and International Financial Statistics. Except for ratios, figures are in millions of escudos. Exports and imports are those of the metropolitan area only, including exports to and imports from the overseas territories. All services are counted as applying to the metropolitan area except those specified in the balance of payments as applying to the overseas territories. Services rendered to or paid for from the overseas territories are not included, no figures being available. All movements of official short-term assets and gold are applied to the metropolitan area. Insofar as any of these should be applied to overseas territories, results will be incorrect.

MO for 1949, and related figures, may not be exactly comparable with figures for subsequent years.

For description of symbols, see text. The table is based on data from International Monetary Fund, Balance of Payments Yearbooks and International Financial Statistics. Except for ratios, figures are in millions of escudos. Exports and imports are those of the metropolitan area only, including exports to and imports from the overseas territories. All services are counted as applying to the metropolitan area except those specified in the balance of payments as applying to the overseas territories. Services rendered to or paid for from the overseas territories are not included, no figures being available. All movements of official short-term assets and gold are applied to the metropolitan area. Insofar as any of these should be applied to overseas territories, results will be incorrect.

MO for 1949, and related figures, may not be exactly comparable with figures for subsequent years.

Sweden1
195019511952195319541955195619571958
X7,38111,76610,91510,40111,15412,16313,78015,62415,090
C–349168–2–1042455341168428
M7,23410,87510,76610,06011,30712,58013,90715,71915,361
ΔR–2021,059147341–1113821473157
MO6,8808,4208,6209,0209,2009,3009,90010,13010,280
ΔMO4601,540200400180100600230150
ΔD662481535929162386157–7
Y28,74035,28038,63039,48041,91045,24048,80052,590….
Q7,69412,41510,96610,45011,48712,68014,50715,94915,511
M/Y25.230.827.925.527.027.828.529.9….
Y/MO4.654.394.534.514.745.065.12….….
MA–475–1,827–54646862–46–127–613….
V428–492225–52431630179….….
(1) M =0.35Y — 3,300 (1950–57)(2) Y =4.71MO (1950–56)
Q (0)Q (–I)Q (–II)Q (–III)
Import coefficients0.540.840.100.02
Income coefficients1.551.000.240.07

For description of symbols, see text. The table is based on data from International Monetary Fund, Balance of Payments Yearbooks and International Financial Statistics. Except for ratios, figures are in millions of kronor.

For description of symbols, see text. The table is based on data from International Monetary Fund, Balance of Payments Yearbooks and International Financial Statistics. Except for ratios, figures are in millions of kronor.

PORTUGAL

SWEDEN

Switzerland1
1949195019511952195319541955195619571958
X24,3644,8535,7825,8836,4946,6907,4188,1128,6968,739
C–187–703–13–69–810–951–219313840610
M23,7914,5365,9115,2105,0545,6276,7567,9878,8917,779
ΔR386–386–1426046301124434386451,470
MO11,10011,43011,92012,31012,84013,20013,63014,61015,00016,650
ΔMO7303304903905303604309803901,660
ΔD344716632–214–100248–13542–255180
Y316,70017,56019,19020,32021,19022,60024,13025,80027,28028,300
Q4,5214,8666,4015,6005,5845,9877,1868,9679,2819,429
M/Y22.725.830.825.623.824.928.031.032.627.5
Y/MO1.541.611.661.691.711.771.831.821.85….
MA120–251–933248774800321–200–4751,070
V–666413312191132494500–65336….
(1) M =0.425Y — 3,178(2) Y =2.0MO (1949–57)
Q (0)Q (–I)Q (–II)Q (–III)Q (–IV)Q (–V)
Import coefficients0.410.310.150.070.040.02
Income coefficients0.950.720.350.180.090.06

For description of symbols, see text. The table is based on data from International Monetary Fund, Balance of Payments Yearbooks and International Financial Statistics. Except for ratios, figures are in millions of francs.

The balance of payments statements for 1949–54 give only net amounts for services; therefore, in computing X and M, net data have been used for the entire period, 1949–58, and X and M are accordingly understated.

National income.

For description of symbols, see text. The table is based on data from International Monetary Fund, Balance of Payments Yearbooks and International Financial Statistics. Except for ratios, figures are in millions of francs.

The balance of payments statements for 1949–54 give only net amounts for services; therefore, in computing X and M, net data have been used for the entire period, 1949–58, and X and M are accordingly understated.

National income.

Thailand1
1949195019511952195319541955195619571958
X3,7164,8546,1044,9164,6914,6006,8817,7528,5147,025
C2,1265121,2799461,0962,0571,1977619131,335
M5,2645,5236,9106,5926,9717,6258,1288,2439,2968,436
Mo00101166149404581171107
ΔR578–157473–730–1,184–968–50270131–76
MO3,1083,9684,9074,9325,4386,0586,9157,3058,1858,647
ΔMO22786093925506620857390880462
ΔD–3511,0174667551,6901,588907120749538
Y….25,60027,60029,09032,47032,47039,99041,030….….
Q5,4916,3837,8496,6177,4778,2458,9858,63310,1768,898
M/Y….21.625.022.721.523.520.320.1….….
Y/MO….6.705.796.245.795.985.86….….….
MA….135–810–163205–449710825….….
V….….–652375–229–3–154….….….
(1) M =0.22Y (1950–56)(2) Y =6.09MO (1950–55)
Q (0)Q (–I)Q (–II)Q (–III)Q (–IV)
Import coefficients0.480.360.110.030.02
Income coefficients2.171.680.510.150.04

For description of symbols, see text. The table is based on data from International Monetary Fund, Balance of Payments Yearbooks and International Financial Statistics (IFS). Except for ratios, figures are in millions of bant. Balance of payments data were reported to the Fund in U.S. dollars; X and M have been converted at the rates shown in IFS, and ΔR has been derived from foreign assets (line 20) in IFS, adjusted for the 1955 revaluation profit (2.5 million baht).

For description of symbols, see text. The table is based on data from International Monetary Fund, Balance of Payments Yearbooks and International Financial Statistics (IFS). Except for ratios, figures are in millions of bant. Balance of payments data were reported to the Fund in U.S. dollars; X and M have been converted at the rates shown in IFS, and ΔR has been derived from foreign assets (line 20) in IFS, adjusted for the 1955 revaluation profit (2.5 million baht).

SWITZERLAND

THAILAND

Union of South Africa1
19481949195019511952195319541955195619571958
X240259359436432440484540601663603
C1513469604621580–1–6350
M416373358684482490498560691666668
Mo000489168679
ΔR–1612070–38–4–2944–209–39–15
ΔMO410 3366 2405415412434442425436446435
ΔMO1–444510–3228–171110–12
ΔD162–64–2548151–3632493
Y 37788269321,1381,1591,2911,4031,4951,5891,7211,766
Q417329403544479512506543602676656
M/Y 461.842.434.646.539.436.434.436.335.738.2….
Y/MO 42.022.542.812.793.143.243.393.743.953.96….
−MA4–65162–80–524471316–33….
V 137623–442111945283….
(1) M = 0.30Y + 110(2) Y = 3.38MO (1950–56)
Q(O)Q(–I)Q(–II)Q(–III)Q(–IV)
Import coefficients0.410.340.140.060.05
Income coefficients1.881.120.470.200.16

For description oi symbols, see text. The table is based on data from International Monetary Fund, Balance of Payments Yearbooks and International Financial Statistics. Except for ratios, figures are in millions of South African pounds.

MO for 1948 and 1949, and related figures, may not be exactly comparable with figures for subsequent years.

National income for year ended June 30.

For calculating M/Y and MA, average income for the calendar year is estimated from the June 30 data by interpolation. For calculating Y/MO and V, income for the end of a calendar year is assumed to be the same as the annual rate for the year ended the following June.

For description oi symbols, see text. The table is based on data from International Monetary Fund, Balance of Payments Yearbooks and International Financial Statistics. Except for ratios, figures are in millions of South African pounds.

MO for 1948 and 1949, and related figures, may not be exactly comparable with figures for subsequent years.

National income for year ended June 30.

For calculating M/Y and MA, average income for the calendar year is estimated from the June 30 data by interpolation. For calculating Y/MO and V, income for the end of a calendar year is assumed to be the same as the annual rate for the year ended the following June.

United Kingdom1
19481949195019511952195319541955195619571958
X2,2452,4703,1133,6603,6623,5243,7754,0244,5114,6964,556
C103–19–59–5967–192–849–31–114–68–315
M2,2192,4122,7794,0463,5068,3963,6464,0954,2334,4054,056
ΔR12939275–445223–64–120–102161223185
MO6,1105,1805,2705,3506,3705,5305,7205,7006,7605,7105,850
ΔMO7070908020160190–2060–50140
ΔD–5981–185525–20322481082–101–273–45
Y11,82812,55613,26114,64415,86016,87017,94019,10020,67021,86022,750
Q2,2892,4822,8694,1263,5263,5563,7364,0754,2934,3554,196
M/Y18.819.221.027.622.120.119.821.420.520.217.8
Y/MO2.392.492.652.853.053.153.243.493.693.91….
MA229187–84–1,015–22396168–14146120653
V214156239330331168161450375378….
(1) M= 0.2077(2) Y =3.17 MO (1949–57)
Q(0)Q(–I)Q(–II)Q(–III)Q(–IV)Q(–V)
Import coefficients0.310.310.170.100.060.05
Income coefficients1.521.470.830.470.300.24

For description of symbols, see text. The table is based on data from International Monetary Fund, Balance of Payments Yearbooks and International Financial Statistics. Except for ratios, figures are in millions of pounds.

For description of symbols, see text. The table is based on data from International Monetary Fund, Balance of Payments Yearbooks and International Financial Statistics. Except for ratios, figures are in millions of pounds.

UNION OF SOUTH AFRICA

UNITED KINGDOM

Venezuela1
1949195019511952195319541955195619571958
X2,4902,6993,2223,5143,7354,1154,6635,1436,2496,804
C769–286–17163728–41,6263,459–1,137
M3,0752,6593,0353,3633,6694,1304,5025,3618,0416,958
Mo01616110014111
ΔR184–24616214138–71671,4081,667–1,291
MO1,5371,5751,6471,9092,0862,1702,4142,7563,6494,019
ΔMO157387226217784244342893370
ΔD–272846648399187–1,066–7741,661
Y9,21429,69910,83212,19812,74414,22615,58916,96419,27821,565
Q3,2322,6973,1073,6253,8464,2144,7465,7038,9347,328
M/Y33.427.428.027.628.829.028.931.641.732.3
Y/MO6.156.526.996.536.466.876.746.585.60….
‒MA–585–9–10112–131592–313–2,229–392
V….86119–116–22134–35–60–541….
(1) M = 0.33Y – 550(2) Y = 6.5MO (1950–57)
Q(0)Q(–I)Q(–II)
Import coefficients0.600.340.06
Income coefficients1.850.990.19

For description of symbols, see text. The table is based on data from International Monetary Fund, Balance of Payments Yearbooks and International Financial Statistics. Except for ratios, figures are in millions of bolivares. Balance of payments data were reported to the Fund in U.S. dollars; X and M have been converted at 3.35 bolívares per dollar, and ΔR at 3.06 bolívares per dollar for 1948–55 and 3.35 bolivares per dollar for 1956–58.

Y for 1949, and related figures, may not be exactly comparable with figures for subsequent years.

For description of symbols, see text. The table is based on data from International Monetary Fund, Balance of Payments Yearbooks and International Financial Statistics. Except for ratios, figures are in millions of bolivares. Balance of payments data were reported to the Fund in U.S. dollars; X and M have been converted at 3.35 bolívares per dollar, and ΔR at 3.06 bolívares per dollar for 1948–55 and 3.35 bolivares per dollar for 1956–58.

Y for 1949, and related figures, may not be exactly comparable with figures for subsequent years.

Venenzula

Mr. Polak, Director of the Department of Research and Statistics, is a graduate of the University of Amsterdam. He was formerly a member of the League of Nations Secretariat, Economist at the Netherlands Embassy in Washington, and Economic Adviser at UNRRA. He is the author of An International Economic System and of several other books and numerous articles in economic journals.

Miss Boissonneault, economist in the Special Studies Division, is a graduate of George Washington University.

J. J. Polak, “Monetary Analysis of Income Formation and Payments Problems,” Staff Papers, Vol. VI (1957–58), pp. 1–50, hereinafter referred to as the 1957 paper.

The authors acknowledge assistance and suggestions received from their colleagues in the Research and Statistics Department of the Fund, in particular from Hang-Sheng Cheng, Graeme Dorrance, J. Marcus Fleming, Poul Høst-Madsen, and John S. Smith.

Polak, op. cit., p. 18.

Capital movements were not allowed for separately in the 1957 paper.

In the 1957 paper, a lag of one income period of imports behind income was assumed. On reconsideration, there appears to be little justification for such an assumption. It is more plausible to suppose that expenditure on imports moves concurrently with expenditure on home production, which, in its receipts aspect, constitutes income.

Changes in a country’s net position vis-à-vis the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are not treated here as reserve movements. Rather, IMF drawings are considered as a capital inflow, offset, in its effect on income and money, by an equal contraction of domestic credit to the government.

In the country tables in Part II, the amount involved is indicated as Mc. Consideration has been given to a similar treatment of direct investment capital inflows and the corresponding imports of capital goods. In practice, information is rarely available to permit any distinction between the capital and the consumer goods imports of foreign companies; the figures that are available seem to indicate that, in most cases, consumer goods form the largest part of such imports. Consequently, except where the necessary figures are available, no deduction is made here for the imports of direct investment companies.

It should be noted that the distinction between capital movements and net domestic credit creation is often vague, or at least ambiguous, where the government is the borrower abroad and uses the proceeds of the sale of the foreign exchange to reduce its indebtedness at home. In such instances it may be useful, in future work, to present the data with a subdivision between private and government, as follows:

ExportsNet Domestic Credit Creation
Capital Movements(i) Government
(i) Government(ii) Private
(ii) Private

This coefficient was labeled “x” in the original paper, but on reconsideration the symbol “ν” seems simpler.

In Table 2, Q (0), Q (–I), etc., refer to the annual values of the Q’s, as in the 1957 paper.

This particular property of the coefficients can be derived from the simplified mathematical expression for them given in Table 2. The coefficients contain only two elements: and (11+m)ν. It is obvious that the first of these two is invariant to changes in m and ν that keep constant. The second element may be written as (1+m)-ν(11+m)- when n = 1. The limiting value of this expression for n → ∞ is e–mv, which again contains only the product of m and ν. For a wide range of values of m and ν, the difference between the expression for n = 1 and n → ∞ is small, as shown by the following tabulation for extreme values. The effect of moderate increases in n is of course even smaller.

m =0.1m =0.5
ν=2ν=8ν=2ν=8
(1+m)ν0.8270.4670.4440.039
e-mν0.8190.4490.3680.018

In a few cases where the residual was large, the coefficients for earlier years were calculated and the whole calculation was pushed one or two years further back. The short formula indicated in the 1957 paper (p. 50) was not used.

It is also conceivable that in some countries a proportion of the total stock of money is, in one way or another, immobilized in the hands of a group of the population that does not actively participate in the fluctuations in income, so that the marginal adjustment of money to income is systematically smaller than the average ratio; however, no clear evidence of this was found.

Defined in this way, a positive value for V(t) indicates that it is an expansionary factor.

It will readily be seen that the two versions,

ΔY(t)=12[Y(t+1)-Y(t-1)]

and

ΔY(t)=12[Y(t+1)+Y(t)]-12[Y(t)+Y(t-1)]

are identical.

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