- International Monetary Fund
- Published Date:
- April 2009
© 2009 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank
1818 H Street NW
Washington DC 20433
All rights reserved
1 2 3 4 12 11 10 09
This volume is a product of the staff of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the views of the Board of Executive Directors of the World Bank, the Board of Executive Directors of the International Monetary Fund, or the governments they represent.
The World Bank and the International Monetary Fund do not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgement on the part of The World Bank or the International Monetary Fund concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.
Rights and Permissions
The material in this publication is copyrighted. Copying and/or transmitting portions or all of this work without permission may be a violation of applicable law. The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will normally grant permission to reproduce portions of the work promptly.
For permission to photocopy or reprint any part of this work, please send a request with complete information to the Copyright Clearance Center Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, USA; telephone: 978-750-8400; fax: 978-750-4470; Internet: www.copyright.com.
All other queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Office of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2422; e-mail:
Cover photo: © Jason Hosking/Zefa/Corbis.
Cover design by Critical Stages.
The annex to this book contains DataLinks, a feature that provides access to the Excel files corresponding to each figure. To make use of this feature, simply locate the link below each figure (beginning with http://dx.doi.org), and type it into your Internet browser.
The title of this year’s Global Monitoring Report is “A Development Emergency.” Appropriately so. We are in the midst of a global financial crisis for which there has been no equal in over 70 years. It is a dangerous time. The financial crisis that grew into an economic crisis is now becoming an unemployment crisis. It risks becoming a human and social crisis—with political implications. No region is immune. The poor countries are especially vulnerable, as they have much less cushion to withstand events. This poses serious threats to the hard-won gains in boosting the economic growth of many developing countries, especially in Africa, as well as achieving progress toward the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). It also poses a threat to global recovery, because developing countries can provide a growth platform to help the global economy pull out of the crisis.
Middle-income countries were the first among developing countries to feel the impact of the financial crisis, given their heavier reliance on private capital flows. Private capital flows to the developing world are seeing their sharpest decline in many decades. Both middle- and low-income countries will be hit hard in 2009 by a second wave of effects reflecting the global recession and declining world trade. Poor countries will be affected through reductions in export volumes, commodity prices, remittances, tourism, foreign direct investment, and possibly even foreign aid. These shocks will hurt public revenues, constricting fiscal space for public programs.
Economic growth in developing countries has declined sharply to the lowest rates for some decades; per capita incomes will fall in many countries. Sub-Saharan Africa will see a rise in the poverty count in 2009, with the more fragile and low-growth economies especially at risk. Globally, we estimate that because of the crisis there will be more than 50 million additional people living in extreme poverty in 2009 than expected before the crisis, compounding the impact from soaring food and fuel prices of recent years.
These numbers have a human face. We estimate that as a result of sharply lower economic growth rates, about 200,000 to 400,000 more babies may die each year. School enrollments will suffer—especially for girls. The prospect of reaching the MDGs by 2015, already a cause for serious concern, now looks even more distant.
A global crisis requires a global solution. The crisis began in the financial markets of developed countries, so the first order of business must be to stabilize these markets and counter the recession that the financial turmoil has triggered. This calls for timely, adequate, and coordinated actions by developed countries to restore confidence in the financial system and counter falling demand. At the same time, we need strong and urgent actions to counter the impact of the crisis on developing countries by helping them to boost growth while protecting the poor. The report sets out six priority areas for action to confront the development emergency that now faces many of these countries.
First, we must ensure an adequate fiscal response in developing countries to protect the poor and vulnerable groups and to support economic growth. Priority areas must be strengthening social safety nets and protecting infrastructure programs that can create jobs while building a foundation for future productivity and growth. The precise fiscal response needs to be tailored to individual country circumstances, consistent with maintenance of macroeconomic stability. Second, we must provide support for the private sector and improve the climate for recovery and growth in private investment, including paying special attention to strengthening financial systems. Helping small and medium enterprises get access to finance for trade and investment is vital for job creation. But the crisis has also underscored the importance of broader reforms to improve the stability and soundness of the financial system. Third, we must redouble efforts in human development and recover lost ground in progress toward the MDGs. We can do this not only by strengthening key public programs for health and education, but also by better leveraging the private sector’s role in the financing and delivery of services.
In support of these efforts to help developing countries, the report emphasizes three key global priorities. Donors must deliver on their commitments to increase aid. Indeed, the increased needs of poor countries hit hard by the crisis call for going beyond existing commitments. National governments must hold firm against rising protectionist pressures and maintain an open international trade and finance system. Completing the Doha negotiations expedi-tiously would provide a much-needed boost in confidence to the global economy at a time of high stress and uncertainty. Finally, multilateral institutions must have the mandate, resources, and instruments to support an effective global response to the global crisis. The international financial institutions will need to play a key role in bridging the large financing gap for developing countries resulting from the slump in private capital flows, including using their leverage ability to help revive private flows.
World leaders made important progress in coordinating a global response to the crisis at the recently held summit of the Group of Twenty countries. This must be followed by strong, concerted actions. The need for international cooperation has never been greater.
Robert B. Zoellick
The World Bank Group
International Monetary Fund
This report has been prepared jointly by the staff of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. In preparing the report, staff have collaborated closely with partner institutions—the African Development Bank, the Asian Development Bank, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the Inter-American Development Bank, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, the World Trade Organization, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, and other UN agencies. The cooperation and support of staff of these institutions are gratefully acknowledged.
Zia Qureshi was the lead author and manager of the report. The core team for the report included Felipe Barrera, Peter Berman, Jean-Pierre Chauffour, Punam Chuhan-Pole, Stefano Curto, Mary Hallward-Driemeier, and Homi Kharas (World Bank) and Stijn Claessens, Richard Harmsen, Laura Kodres, Andrea Maechler, and Axel Palmason (IMF). Other significant contributions were made by Katharina Gassner, Arthur Karlin, and Linda Lee (World Bank) and Alberto Espejo, Emmanuel Hife, and Ioana Niculcea (IMF). Sachin Shahria assisted with the overall preparation and coordination of the report. The work was carried out under the general guidance of Justin Yifu Lin, Senior Vice President and Chief Economist, World Bank.
A number of other staff and consultants made valuable contributions, including the following from the World Bank: Philippe Ambrosi, Uranbileg Batjargal, Amie Batson, Iwona Borowik, Penelope Brooks, Andrew Burns, Shaohua Chen, Robert Cull, Susan Davis, Asli Demirgüç-Kunt, Shanthi Divakaran, Simeon Djankov, Sharon Felzer, Ariel Fiszbein, Vivien Foster, Caroline Freund, Boris Gamarra, Alan Gelb, Navin Girishankar, Neil Gregory, Juliana Guaqueta, April Harding, Masako Hiraga, Bernard Hoekman, Ludwina Joseph, Johannes Sebastian Kiess, Stephen Knack, Gerard Martin La Forgia, Gina Lagomarsino, Benjamin Loevinsohn, Knut Lonnroth, Mattias Lundberg, Frank Lysy, Mariem Malouche, Aaditya Mattoo, Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, Inez Mikkelsen-Lopez, Dominic Montague, Marisela Montoliu-Munoz, Joyce Msuya, Richard Newfarmer, Israel Osorio-Rodarte, Harry Patrinos, Emilio Porta, Abha Prasad, Alexander Preker, Martin Ravallion, Lulu Shui, Eric Swanson, Nigel Twose, Marilou Uy, Daniel Villar, Dileep Wagle, and Elizabeth White.
Other contributors from the IMF included Elif Aksoy, Alexandre Chailloux, Peter Dattels, and Deniz Igan.
Contributors from other institutions included: Gaston Gohou, Ellen Goldstein, Josephine Kiyenje, and Timothy Turner (AfDB); Indu Bhushan, Christopher Maccormac, Manju Senapaty, and Gina Marie Umali (ADB); Yannis Arvanitis, Gary Bond, and James Earwicker (EBRD); Nathaniel Jackson and Max Pulgar-Vidal (IDB); Yasmin Ahmad, Simon Scott, and Suzanne Steensen (OECD); and Alessandro Nicita (UNCTAD).
Guidance received from the Executive Directors of the World Bank and the IMF and their staff during discussions of the draft report is gratefully acknowledged. The report also benefited from many useful comments and suggestions received from the Bank and Fund management and staff in the course of its preparation and review.
The World Bank’s Office of the Publisher managed the editorial services, design, production, and printing of the report, with Susan Graham anchoring the process. Others assisting with the report’s publication included Denise Bergeron, Martha Gottron, Nancy Lammers, Stephen McGroarty, Santiago Pombo-Bejarano, Kirsten Dennison and associates of Precision Graphics, and Bill Pragluski of Critical Stages.
The report’s dissemination and outreach was coordinated by Merrell Tuck-Primdahl, working with Prianka Nandy, Kavita Watsa, and Roula Yazigi.
African, Caribbean, and Pacific countries
Asian Development Bank
African Development Bank
Acquired immune deficiency syndrome
Advanced Market Commitment
Conditional cash transfer
Clean Development Mechanism
Certified emissions reductions
Common preference assessment system
Country programmable aid
Country Policy and Institutional Assessment
Creditor Reporting System (of the OECD DAC)
Corporate social responsibility
Development Assistance Committee
Debt Reduction Facility (of the World Bank)
European Bank for Reconstruction and Development
Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative
Food and Agriculture Organization (of the UN)
Foreign direct investment
Financial Sector Assessment Program
Group of Eight
Group of Twenty
Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunizations
Gross domestic product
Global Environmental Facility
Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria
Gross national income
Heavily indebted poor country/countries
Human immunodeficiency virus
International Bank for Reconstruction and Development
International Comparison Program
International Development Association (of the World Bank)
Inter-American Development Bank
International Energy Agency
International Finance Corporation
International financial institutions
International Finance Facility for Immunizations
International Health Partnership
International Labour Organization
International Monetary Fund
International Trade Centre
Multilateral development banks
Millennium Development Goal
Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative
Micro- and small enterprise
Nonagricultural market access
New Partnership or African Development
Official development assistance
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Overall Trade Restrictiveness Index
Public financial management
Public-Private Infrastructure Advisory Facility
Purchasing power parity
Preferential trade agreement
Sustainable Infrastructure Action Plan
Small and medium enterprises
Sovereign wealth fund
Tariff Trade Restrictiveness Index
UN Development Programme
UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
World Food Programme
World Health Organization
World Trade Organization