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Albania: Staff Report for the 2017 Article IV Consultation—Supplementary Information

Author(s):
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Published Date:
December 2017
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Albania: Fiscal Consolidation 2013-2021(Percent of GDP, unless otherwise specified)
201320142015201620172018201920202021
Act.Act.Act.Prel.AuthoritiesProj.Draft Budg.Proj.Proj.Proj.Proj.
Revenues24.026.326.427.428.228.228.128.127.927.827.5
   Tax revenue22.024.123.924.925.725.925.725.625.525.425.2
   Non-tax revenue1.61.51.81.51.61.51.61.41.41.41.4
   Grants0.40.70.81.00.90.90.91.01.01.00.9
Expenditures29.232.231.029.630.430.230.429.929.729.429.3
   Current expenditure (incl. net lending)24.325.425.425.725.225.525.024.624.624.424.4
      Of which : Energy sector spending 1/0.90.80.50.50.50.20.20.20.10.0
   Capital expenditure 2/4.84.34.44.04.84.65.25.25.04.94.7
   Other spending0.02.41.20.00.50.20.20.20.20.20.1
Overall balance-5.2-5.9-4.6-2.3-2.2-2.0-2.2-1.9-1.8-1.6-1.8
Primary balance-2.0-3.0-1.90.20.20.10.30.40.60.90.9
Structural primary balance-1.7-0.1-0.40.50.60.50.40.50.70.90.9
Change in the structural primary balance-1.21.6-0.31.00.00.0-0.10.00.20.20.0
Public debt70.472.074.173.372.771.570.171.368.766.764.0
   Domestic debt43.442.439.739.037.335.337.131.530.028.327.7
   Foreign debt27.029.634.434.335.436.233.039.838.738.336.3
Memo items:
   Primary balance (authorities’ presentation) 3/-2.0-2.5-1.90.30.40.40.60.70.91.01.0
   Nominal GDP (in billions of leks)1,3501,3951,4281,4731,5551,5621,6501,6581,7641,8842,013
   Public debt (in billions of leks)9501,0051,0571,0801,1311,1171,1571,1821,2111,2551,288
Sources: Albanian authorities; IMF staff estimates and projections.
1/Energy spending includes energy sector subsidies, compensation for the poor, and policy net lending. Prior to 2014, energy subsidies were not recorded in the fiscal accounts, but handled through extra-budgetary guarantees and debt-financed policy net lending.
2/Starting in 2017, grants to the Regional Development Fund are reclassified from local government spending to capital expenditure.
3/The budget records as expenditure some financial operations but omits some energy sector support.
Sources: Albanian authorities; IMF staff estimates and projections.
1/Energy spending includes energy sector subsidies, compensation for the poor, and policy net lending. Prior to 2014, energy subsidies were not recorded in the fiscal accounts, but handled through extra-budgetary guarantees and debt-financed policy net lending.
2/Starting in 2017, grants to the Regional Development Fund are reclassified from local government spending to capital expenditure.
3/The budget records as expenditure some financial operations but omits some energy sector support.
Medium-Term Fiscal Paths(In percent off GDP)
201620172018201920202021
Public debt
   IMF baseline73.371.571.368.766.764.0
   IMF recommended path71.069.866.163.460.0
   Authorities MTBF*71.568.766.463.559.9
Overall balance
   IMF baseline-2.3-2.0-1.9-1.8-1.6-1.8
   IMF recommended path-1.4-0.9-0.7-0.7-0.8
   Authorities MTBF*-2.0-2.0-1.7-1.2-0.5
Primary balance
   IMF baseline0.20.10.40.60.90.9
   IMF recommended path0.61.21.51.51.5
   Authorities MTBF*0.40.61.01.52.2
Structural primary balance
   IMF baseline0.50.50.50.70.90.9
   IMF recommended path1.01.41.61.51.5
   Authorities MTBF*0.60.40.91.42.1
*Based on the authorities’ own definitions of debt and deficit (i.e., excluding some energy sector support from the deficit, and omitting PPPs and arrears in the debt statistics).
*Based on the authorities’ own definitions of debt and deficit (i.e., excluding some energy sector support from the deficit, and omitting PPPs and arrears in the debt statistics).

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