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Statement by the Staff Representative on Romania March 25, 2015

Author(s):
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Published Date:
March 2015
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1. This statement provides information that has become available since the issuance of the Staff Report on March 11, 2015. This information does not alter the thrust of the staff appraisal.

2. The cash budget recorded a surplus of 0.3 percent of GDP for the first two months of 2015 compared to a deficit of 0.5 percent of GDP during the same period of 2014. Based on preliminary data, the surplus reflects strong spending restraint coupled with solid revenue growth. In the first two months, spending was lower by 0.6 percentage points of GDP relative to last year, with lower subsidies and spending on goods, services, and capital accounting for most of the drop. At the same time, total revenues were higher by 0.2 percentage points of GDP, driven mostly by higher VAT and non-tax revenue receipts and reflecting base effects as well as stronger domestic demand.

3. The authorities are considering the reduction of tax rates, but their plans are still evolving, including how to offset the revenue loss. Based on the latest data available, staff estimates that the net loss in budget revenues in 2016 from the proposed tax changes could reach 2.2 percent of GDP. This takes into account the projected impact on revenues from stronger economic activity (0.7–1.0 percent higher nominal GDP in 2016). The revenue shortfall would widen further from 2017 with proposed additional tax rate reductions. At this stage, staff does not have information about potential measures that the authorities may take to offset the proposed tax changes.

4. In February, inflation remained low. Headline annual inflation was at 0.4 percent, unchanged from the previous month. Core inflation declined to 1 percent.

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